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Peter Strzelecki

Shane Bieber To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Guardians ace Shane Bieber will soon be undergoing a Tommy John surgery after experiencing elbow pain in each of his last two starts, the team announced.  Bieber will miss the rest of the 2024 season and roughly half of the 2025 season, as per the usual recovery timeline for TJ procedures.  As initially reported by MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, right-hander Peter Strzelecki has been called to take Bieber’s roster spot, now that the Guards have officially placed Bieber on the 15-day injured list.  (He’ll inevitably be moved to the 60-day IL when Cleveland next needs to open a 40-man roster spot.)

The devastating news comes on the heels of an injury-shortened 2023 campaign for the right-hander, as Bieber was limited to 128 innings while missing about two and a half months due to elbow inflammation.  He returned from the 60-day injured list to make two starts in late September, which seemingly indicated that the problem was behind him, and that Bieber could now look forward to a more normal offseason and ramp-up routine.  However, as the Guardians’ statement indicates, Bieber had some discomfort in his elbow following his first start this year, and the problem continued through his next outing.

Certainly nothing appeared to be amiss in terms of results, given that Bieber looked completely dominant in tossing 12 shutout innings and recording 20 strikeouts (against just one walk and 10 hits allowed) over his two starts.  This will now unfortunately mark the last we’ll see of Bieber on a big league mound for the next 13-15 months, and we might have already seen his final outing in a Cleveland uniform since he is a free agent this winter.

It counted as something of a surprise to see Bieber even still with the Guardians on Opening Day, given how it was widely assumed that the right-hander would be traded in advance of his walk year.  The Guards have routinely traded star players within 12-18 months of free agency since the organization is rarely (Jose Ramirez notwithstanding) willing to pay the money necessary to sign such prominent names to contract extensions.  As frustrating as this process has been for Cleveland fans, the front office’s track record in these trades has been pretty successful, and some of the players gained in those deals have helped the Guardians to remain competitive despite low payrolls.

If it wasn’t for his elbow issue last season, it is quite possible the Guards might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline.  His health status surely impacted his trade value this past winter, as despite reports linking the Angels, Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and Cubs to Bieber’s market, Cleveland wasn’t able to work out a deal with any of these (and undoubtedly many other) interested suitors.  It’s easy to say now in the wake of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery that the Guardians should’ve moved him for whatever half-decent offer they received, though we don’t know what offers were on the table, and naturally the Guards weren’t keen on selling low on such a valuable trade asset.

There’s also the value of what Bieber brought to Cleveland’s own rotation, as the Guardians were hit with a lot of injuries to notable starters in 2023.  The team’s outstanding pitching development pipeline helped cover this problem in impressive fashion with the emergence of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen, and going into this season, the idea of that young trio teaming with Bieber and the returning Triston McKenzie seemed like a promising step in the Guards’ plans to return to contention.  However, Williams started the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow discomfort, and both Ben Lively and Xzavion Curry are also on the IL since a virus set the two pitchers back during Spring Training.

Veteran Carlos Carrasco has already stepped into the rotation in Williams’ place, and the Guardians will now have to hope for a quick recovery from either Lively or Curry with Bieber gone for the season.  Jaime Barria is also a candidate to pick up starts in the short term, or Hunter Gaddis or Tyler Beede could be stretched out from their current relief roles, or used in a piggyback/bulk starter capacity.

A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Bieber became the latest star product of the Cleveland pitching factory when he made his MLB debut in 2018, and then finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  That breakout year led to Bieber winning the Cy during the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 1.63 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.  While the season’s abbreviated nature carries an obvious asterisk, it was just the 13th time in MLB history that a pitcher led the entire league in ERA, wins (eight), and strikeouts (122) in the same year.

Bieber hasn’t since returned to those heights, though he still has a 3.13 ERA in 436 2/3 innings from 2021-24, and he was an All-Star in 2021 and a seventh-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting in 2022.  With this success came increasingly larger paydays throughout Bieber’s arbitration-eligible years, culminating in the arb-avoiding $13.125MM deal he signed for 2024.  A big bounce-back season would’ve therefore set him up quite nicely for a pricey free agent contract in the 2024-25 offseason, especially if he could’ve avoided a qualifying offer via a midseason trade from the Guardians.

As it stands now, Bieber might have to wait quite some time to score a hefty multi-year commitment.  Even if he pitches well after returning partway through the 2025 season, clubs might want to see a larger sample size of good health and good results before guaranteeing a nine-figure salary.  Assuming then that Bieber pitched well and stays healthy throughout 2026, he might then have a safer track record….but teams could then be wary of Bieber’s age, since 2027 would be his age-32 season.

Under the circumstances, there is a chance the Guardians could yet retain Bieber into 2025, as unlikely as this scenario would’ve seemed even a few days ago.  Cleveland might look to extend Bieber through the 2025 campaign or even both the 2025-26 seasons, on a low salary for 2025 and then the rest of the money backloaded into 2026.  We’ve seen such contractual models used for other pitchers recovering from lengthy injury rehabs, most recently Brandon Woodruff’s two-year, $17.5MM deal to re-sign with the Brewers less than two months ago.  If Bieber and the Guards had interest in such an arrangement, Bieber could complete his entire rehab in a familiar environment, and the Guardians could still get some benefit from having Bieber for part of 2025 and perhaps 2026.

Guardians Acquire Peter Strzelecki From D-backs, Zak Kent From Rangers

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The Guardians announced this morning that they’ve completed a pair of trades for pitching depth. Cleveland acquired right-hander Peter Strzelecki from the Diamondbacks in exchange for cash and acquired righty Zak Kent from the Rangers in exchange for international bonus pool space. Arizona designated Strzelecki for assignment earlier in the week. Both pitchers will be added to the Guardians’ 40-man roster, which had two vacant spots but is now at capacity.

Now 29 years old, Strzelecki broke into the majors as an unheralded 27-year-old rookie with the 2022 Brewers and quickly became a vital part of their bullpen that season. The undrafted righty made 30 appearances out of the ’pen and tossed 35 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate in 35 innings. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher (31.1% ground-ball rate) in a hitter-friendly park who’d had some good fortune in terms of home runs (0.51 HR/9, 5.3% homer-to-flyball rate) there was always some potential for regression, but Strzelecki stumbled in 2023 for what appeared to be different reasons.

While Strzelecki managed to continue yielding home runs at a much lower rate than the average pitcher, he also lost more than a mile per hour off his fastball and saw his strikeout rate drop notable, from 27% to 22.7%. He offset some of that drop in whiffs with more grounders (38.1%) and fewer walks (7.4%), but his earned run average still jumped to 4.38 in last year’s 37 frames. Metrics like FIP (2.94 in 2022, 3.93 in 2023) and SIERA (3.47 in ’22, 3.93 in ’23) felt his jump in ERA was deserved, though perhaps not quite to the extent it actually increased.

The Brewers sent Strzelecki to the D-backs in a deadline swap that brought veteran lefty Andrew Chafin back to Milwaukee. Arizona only gave him 1 1/3 innings in the big leagues following that trade, and Strzelecki was designated for assignment earlier this week when a spot on the 40-man roster was needed for backup catcher Tucker Barnhart. The right-hander still has a minor league option remaining and is controllable for five more seasons if he can get back on track in his new surroundings.

Kent, 26, was the Rangers’ ninth-round pick back in 2019 but climbed into the middle tiers of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects and was selected to the 40-man roster following the 2022 season. At the time, the move was made to protect Kent from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 Draft — which seemed quite likely to happen had he gone unprotected. Kent had just wrapped up a 2022 season that was split between Double-A and Triple-A, wherein he pitched a combined 109 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball with roughly average strikeout and walk rates. Baseball America credited him with a plus heater and slider in addition to a solid-average curveball but below-average command.

Kent missed time in 2022 with back, hip and oblique injuries, and health troubles (oblique and shoulder issues) hindered his 2023 season even further. He pitched just 40 2/3 frames last year — plus another 16 2/3 in the Arizona Fall League. He showed slightly improved strikeout and walk rates when healthy, though he was still hit hard during AFL play. Kent appeared in three spring games for the Rangers but was tagged for five earned runs with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) in 3 2/3 innings. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining.

The Guards are opening the season with righty Gavin Williams on the injured list and will be without frequently injured pitching prospect Daniel Espino for the entire season. They also lost setup man Trevor Stephan to Tommy John surgery, while relievers James Karinchak (elbow) and Sam Hentges (finger) are on the injured list as well. Strzelecki and Kent aren’t likely to step right onto the active roster, but they’ll give Cleveland some additional depth to help navigate that slew of injuries to begin the season.

Diamondbacks Designate Peter Strzelecki For Assignment, Select Tucker Barnhart

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Tucker Barnhart, with right-hander Peter Strzelecki designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

The Snakes came into spring with just two catchers on their 40-man roster in Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera. The latter was optioned over the weekend, pointing to Barnhart getting to serve as Moreno’s backup to open the season, which has now been made official by this move.

Barnhart, 33, signed a minor league deal with the D’Backs in January. The veteran has hit a tepid .217/.333/.304 here in spring, but he’s always been a glove-first backstop. In just under 3,000 major league plate appearances in his career, he has slashed .243/.319/.356 for a wRC+ of 79, indicating he’s been 21% below league average.

But he’s been worth 12 Defensive Runs Saved in his career while Statcast has looked favorably on his work both in terms of blocking and with the running game. Each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus grade him as a below-average framer for his career, but all three agree that he hit a nadir in 2018 and has been above average over the past five years. He’ll give the club a solid veteran presence behind the 24-year-old Moreno.

Strzelecki, 29, came over to the Diamondbacks from the Brewers in last year’s deadline swap that sent Andrew Chafin to Milwaukee. After that deal, Strzelecki was mostly kept on optional assignment, only making one appearance in the majors for Arizona. Here in spring, Strzelecki has made four appearances, striking out four batters while allowing one walk and two earned runs.

The Diamondbacks will now have one week to trade the righty or pass him through waivers. He has 72 major league innings under his belt, mostly with the Brewers, with a 3.63 earned run average in that time. He has paired a 24.8% strikeout rate with an 8.7% walk rate. Over the past two years, he has a 4.88 ERA in 51 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, punching out 34.8% of opponents but also walking 13.6% of them.

Strzelecki still has an option remaining and could appeal to clubs in search of bullpen depth since he wouldn’t require an active roster spot. But many clubs around the league are facing 40-man roster crunches at the moment as they finalize their decisions prior to Opening Day. If he were to sneak through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Diamondbacks as bullpen depth but without taking up a spot on the 40-man.

Brewers, Diamondbacks Swap Andrew Chafin For Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers have picked up left-hander Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Phoenix reports that right-hander Peter Strzelecki is headed back to the D’Backs in return.  Rosenthal linked Milwaukee to Chafin’s market earlier today.

Give how Arizona also just landed Paul Sewald from the Mariners yesterday, it makes for an interesting buy/sell dynamic with the Diamondbacks’ front office.  Obviously the D’Backs have designs on reaching the postseason, yet still opted to pull the trigger on dealing a reliever who is technically a rental player, since Chafin only signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.  However, he is controllable through next season via a $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout), so the Brew Crew could potentially be viewing Chafin as a member of their 2024 bullpen.  Incidentally, Chafin also receives a $250K bonus now that he has been traded.

That said, the D’Backs are also getting back a controllable reliever in Strzelecki, who has posted some good results over his two MLB seasons.  Since Strzelecki isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season and naturally comes at a much lower price tag than Chafin, the Diamondbacks saved some money while perhaps not taking much of a hit to the overall quality of their relief corps.

Chafin has a 4.19 ERA over 34 1/3 innings this season, with that number only just inflated by a disastrous outing (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) against the Braves on July 24.  The southpaw’s SIERA is a more solid 3.38, and his 32.7% strikeout rate put him the 94th percentile of all pitchers.  Chafin’s control has fluctuated throughout his career, and the pendulum has swung down this season, as he has an ungainly 12.0% walk rate.

Now in his 10th MLB season, Chafin has been a generally reliable relief arm over his career, and he’ll now change uniforms once again to join a Brewers team in severe need of left-handed depth.  While Hoby Milner is having a strong season, he has been the only left-hander in Milwaukee’s bullpen for most of the season.  The Brewers were hoping to have Justin Wilson back from Tommy John surgery, yet Wilson unfortunately suffered a lat strain while warming up in his return outing, and was placed back onto the 15-day injured list.

With no timeline yet on Wilson’s return, it is easy to see why the Brewers were so aggressive in seeking out another left-hander, and in dealing a controllable pitcher from their right-handed relief depth.  Strzelecki was an undrafted free agent for the Brewers in 2018, but he made his way to the majors to toss 70 2/3 innings for Milwaukee over the last two seasons.  Despite near-identical SIERAs (3.47 and 3.66) and pretty similar secondary metrics over his two years of work, Strzelecki had a 2.83 ERA over 35 frames in 2022, but a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings this season.

One of a few hidden pitching gems uncovered by the Brewers front office and pitching development staff, Strzelecki has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over his career, both above the league average.  A slightly loss of control (though not in the walk category) could be one reason for Strzelecki’s relative dropoff in performance this year, as he has hit eight batters.  The Brewers only just called Strzelecki back up from the minors after a month-long stint at Triple-A, and he didn’t make another appearance prior to the trade.

Brewers Select Thomas Pannone, Option Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Thomas Pannone, with righty Peter Strzelecki optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. The club already had a vacancy for Pannone on their 40-man roster.

Pannone, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in the offseason and has been faring well in Triple-A this year. He’s tossed 53 1/3 innings over 11 appearances, nine of those being starts. He has a 2.70 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 37.7% ground ball rate. That performance will get him back up to the big leagues for the first time in a few years. He made 49 appearances as a swingman for the Blue Jays over 2018 and 2019 with 5.43 ERA.

It’s unclear what sort of role the Brewers envision for the lefty. Their rotation seems set on paper with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Colin Rea taking the five spots. Teheran has generally fared well this year but it’s his first meaningful big league action since 2020 and he was lit up in his last start, allowing seven earned runs against the Mets yesterday.

Though Pannone has been working as a starter in the minors, it’s possible that he’ll be installed in the bullpen. The club has been operating with Hoby Milner as its only left-handed reliever and Pannone would give them another option in that department. It’s also possible that his multi-inning abilities are the important thing, regardless of handedness. The club is in the midst of a stretch of playing 17 consecutive days, which will last until the All-Star break. Pannone’s abilities to work in long relief could prevent the other relievers from becoming overly taxed.

In order to make room for Pannone, the club has made the somewhat surprising decision to option Strzelecki. He posted a 2.83 ERA last year and was bumped into higher leverage situations this year, having already tallied 14 holds. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 27% rate to 23.7% this year, but he’s also lowered his walk rate from 10.1% to 6.4%. His ERA has jumped to 4.54 but his 3.79 FIP and 3.60 SIERA suggest there’s at least some bad luck in there. Nonetheless, the club will send him down to Nashville for the time being.

Brewers Place Kolten Wong On 10-Day Injured List

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The Brewers have placed Kolten Wong on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain, retroactive to June 8th, per the team. Right-hander Luke Barker was also optioned to Triple-A. To fill the active roster, Mark Mathias and Peter Strzelecki were recalled from Triple-A. The Brewers have been sliding, losers of seven straight coming into today’s game against the Nationals.

Barker and Strzelecki are swapping places after doing the same back on June 3rd. The 27-year-old Strzelecki made just one appearance for the club, a two-inning outing back on June 2nd in which he surrendered one earned run. He gave his roster spot to Barker the following day. Barker, 30, made three appearances for the Brew Crew, yielding five earned runs across four innings of work.

Wong has been the leadoff man for most of the year, with Christian Yelich taking over atop the lineup in the past three games while Wong has been out. Defensively Luis Urias has continued in his role as a swingman, moving to the keystone from shortstop, where he had been filling in for Willy Adames before his return from the injured list. Wong has been exactly league-average with the bat (100 wRC+), slashing .228/.321/.389 in 209 plate appearances.

Mathias, 27, can step into Mike Brosseau’s role as a right-handed infield option. Jace Peterson has been seeing most of the playing time at third base, but against a lefty starter, Milwaukee is likely to turn to Mathias or Keston Hiura.

Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff On IL With High Ankle Sprain

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The Brewers have placed right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day IL with a high ankle sprain (retroactive to May 28th), reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link). The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it will come as a blow to a team already dealing with the long-term absence of Freddy Peralta. Right-handed reliever Peter Strzelecki has been selected from Triple-A Nashville to take his place on the active roster.

Woodruff left in the fifth inning Friday’s game against the Cardinals with what was then termed ’right ankle irritation,’ though it now appears the injury is somewhat more serious. In words that will hardly come as comfort to Brewers fans, manager Craig Counsell described the injury (per Hogg) as “very similar” to Peralta’s, but it isn’t clear if he’ll need as long to “calm [the injury] down” as does his teammate.

Among the best pitchers in the National League since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, Woodruff had gotten off to a comparatively weak start to 2022, posting a 4.74 ERA (against a career mark of 3.36) and 3.82 FIP (career 3.23). The underlying metrics disagree a bit as to the cause. He’s allowed a .315 BABIP this season (against .264 in 2021 and .289 for his career) and 3.8% home run rate (2.5% in 2021 and 2.7% career) — both largely explicable via a rise in hard-hit percentage (the percent of batted balls leaving the bat with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater) from 32.7% in 2021 (33.9% career) to 42.6% — but his strikeout rate of 28.5% (against 29.8% in 2021 and 28.3% for his career) and walk rate of 7.0% (6.1% in 2021, 6.5% career) remain largely unchanged.

Regardless of the cause of Woodruff’s regression, his absence presents an immediate difficulty for the first-place Brewers. With a rotation anchored by Woodruff, Peralta, and 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes alongside the unheralded but consistently solid Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser at the back end, the Brew Crew entered 2022 with a solid case for the best rotation in the game. Former top prospect Aaron Ashby has already shifted from swingman to rotation to take Peralta’s spot, but it’s less clear who’ll take Woodruff’s turns.

Left-hander Ethan Small — the club’s top pitching prospect since Ashby’s graduation — has already been called up and will likely get the first crack, but he’s less of a proven commodity than Ashby. The 25-year-old Mississippi State product is off to a hot start at Triple-A Nashville, posting a 1.88 ERA in 38 1/3 innings across eight starts, but he’s still a bit green (he’s only logged 136 2/3 innings in the minors) and has had some issues with control. While his 32.5% strikeout rate across those minor league innings is top-notch, his 12.1% walk rate isn’t.

Small is set to make his major league debut today, in the first game of Brewers’ double-header against the Cubs. Should he struggle and Woodruff remain out of action for an extended period, the next option may be 35-year-old Josh Lindblom, who struggled to a 6.39 ERA in 62 combined innings with Milwaukee between 2020 and 2021 but is off to a strong start at Nashville, logging a 2.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings.

Strzelecki, a 27-year-old former undrafted free agent out of South Florida, has never started a game in the minors and will likely serve back-end cover for the bullpen for the time being. He has, however, been fairly consistent in his minor league career, posting a 3.73 ERA in 156 2/3 innings across all levels, including a 3.80 ERA in 21 1/3 innings at Triple-A. Never a heralded prospect, he’s nonetheless shown the ability to miss bats (with a 31.1% career strikeout rate in the minors) and keep the ball in the zone (7.6% walk rate).

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