Odds and Ends: Kazmir, Thomas, Sweeney
We’ll kick it off with a few links today and add more bullets periodically.
- Cole Hamels feels that he handled his contract renewal last year immaturely.
- Over at The Hardball Times, Geoff Young looks at the best compensation picks of the 20th century.
- Geoff Blum‘s ’09 option vests with one more plate appearance.
- Bronson Arroyo has a plan to make the Reds competitive.
- Matthew Cerrone explains Carlos Delgado‘s ’09 option.
- Jeff Passan on the Cardinals’ brilliant signing of Ryan Ludwick.
- Baseball Prospectus profiles #26-50 on their list of players to build a team around.
- Twins reliever Brian Bass accepted a Triple A assignment, so he won’t become a free agent.
- MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo takes a preliminary look at the ’09 draft order.
- Jamey Newberg wonders if the Rangers could pry Scott Kazmir loose this winter. It’s hard to see the Rays trading him.
- Susan Slusser expects the A’s to add an impact bat this winter, but free agent DHs Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney will probably be let go. In a related note, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the A’s had a chance earlier this year to acquire Jason Bay for a package including pitching prospect Vin Mazzaro.
Scott Kazmir Signs Extension With Rays
5:59pm: Marc Topkin of The St. Pete Times has the details. It is four-year deal for $28.5MM with a team option for 2012 season at $11MM. It’s a team-friendly contract, as you’d expect. The Rays are setting themselves up for a run of excellence.
5:47pm: Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus reports that Kazmir has signed and the deal will be announced tonight.
5:45pm: Rays Index transcribes a quote from Rays owner Stuart Sternberg via Mike & The Mad Dog. Sternberg hinted that the team is exploring a deal with Scott Kazmir. Kazmir made his season debut on May 4th following a March elbow strain.
Kazmir, just 24, has two more years of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency after the 2010 season. The going rate for the last two arb years of a young ace is about $11MM. The Rays managed to get options on James Shields‘ first two years of free agency for $9MM and $12MM, respectively. For Fausto Carmona, the free agency options are for $7MM, $9MM, and $12MM.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract
The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.
- Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
- Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
- Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
- MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
- Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.
Rays Dealings: Pena, Kazmir, Shields
We discussed the Carlos Pena deal here, but now we have the breakdown via Marc Topkin. He’ll get $6MM in ’08, $8MM in ’09, and $10.125MM in ’10. Meanwhile fellow Boras client Matt Holliday will get $9.5MM in ’08 and $13.5MM in ’09. Holliday may be the superior player, but is he 60% better? Seems Pena just wanted the security and likes Tampa Bay.
Topkin wrote earlier today that Scott Kazmir expected to have an arbitration hearing with the Rays. However, Kazmir and the Rays were able to agree on a $3.785MM salary for ’08. Avoiding a hearing might help a bit if the Rays attempt to sign Kazmir long-term in the future.
Topkin adds that the Rays are trying to sign Jamie Shields to a six or even seven-year deal (and he’s not even arbitration-eligible yet). I believe he’s not due for free agency until after the 2011 season. Marc Lancaster says it could be a five or six year deal with Shields and "it may be wrapped up within the next week."
Signings Galore
Tons of one-year agreements were reached recently, which was to be expected. These are all players under team control rather than free agents, so we knew they weren’t signing elsewhere. The options are to sign a one-year deal, sign a multiyear deal, or go to a hearing if no agreement can be reached.
- Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Brad Lidge, Mark Teixeira, Joe Crede, Juan Rivera, Huston Street, and others reached agreements recently.
- The Jays gave Scott Downs a three-year, $10MM deal. The deal buys out two years of free agency, which makes it a little more palatable than when I thought it was buying out one.
- Scott Kazmir may have to throw down with the Rays.
Kazmir Too Pricey For Rays?
According to Eduardo A. Encina, the Rays explored a contract extension for ace Scott Kazmir last year. Nothing came of it, and now Encina says "there’s already talk that Kazmir’s days as a Ray are numbered."
The dominant lefty, who turns just 24 in January, has three years left before free agency. His monster second half in ’07 (2.39 ERA) may indicate an upward trend that could result in Cy votes in ’08. It seems that Kazmir is represented by Brian Peters (rather than Scott Boras as I previously stated). If he does decide to go year to year with the Rays, he’d be in line for a massive free agent payday preceding his age 27 season in 2011.
Back on November 5th, Joel Sherman of the New York Post said the Rays were even considering shopping Kazmir this winter, depending on the bounty for Johan Santana. Marc Lancaster suggested the following day that the declaration of Kazmir’s availability was "dubious at best."
Latest Mets Rumors: A-Rod, Silva, Blanton
Plenty of action around the Mets lately; Omar Minaya has his work cut out for him. Hat tip to MetsBlog for several of the links.
- The sensational storyline here is that Minaya will meet with Scott Boras to discuss Alex Rodriguez. However, Boras and Minaya might spend more time discussing Kyle Lohse and Eric Gagne than A-Rod – the Mets’ focus is pitching.
- Newsday’s Ken Davidoff reminds us of past trade talks regarding Joe Blanton, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland. Those talks may be re-opened, though Davidoff notes that the White Sox aren’t enamored of Lastings Milledge. Additionally, the Mets will meet with Carlos Silva‘s people this week.
- Buster Olney discusses the Mets’ pursuit for pitching today in his blog. They need a horse, somebody who can chew up innings. Aside from the aforementioned Silva and Blanton, Olney names Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, and Dontrelle Willis as possible targets (though Marc Lancaster considers the declaration of Kazmir’s availability to be "dubious at best." Meanwhile one exec thinks the Rays would only make him available if "his arm is about to blow.") Olney’s guess is that the Mets will acquire Blanton. The Mets have some combination of Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, and Aaron Heilman to offer. There are pros and cons to dealing each.
- There are other concerns besides pitching: second base and catcher. Besides the forthcoming monster offer to Jorge Posada, the Mets are considering Paul Lo Duca and Yorvit Torrealba as fallbacks. Ramon Castro is looking for a two-year deal, and hopes it’s with the Mets. However, the Rockies have their eye on him.
- Pedro Martinez expects to pitch beyond 2008. Whether that will be for the Mets or someone else, who knows.
- Marlon Anderson‘s two-year deal will be announced today, according to Adam Rubin. The Mets will pass on Jose Valentin and Brian Lawrence‘s options.
Rays’ Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He’s been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they’d consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.
Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don’t seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature – Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?
Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!
Sherman indicates that the Twins may be compelled to hold onto Santana, afraid of fan backlash if they also lose Torii Hunter. Meanwhile, another Santana, Ervin, might be had for a bat if the Angels can’t sign Alex Rodriguez. Sherman’s sources say any club in the A-Rod sweepstakes will move slowly in the market because his contract would dictate the team’s available budget.
Also notable from Sherman’s rumor-packed column: teams may wait for the Mitchell Report to come out before engaging in serious talks for Miguel Tejada. I’ve read speculation that MLB could release this report soon as a way of limiting free agent spending. Also, isn’t it about time for Jose Canseco’s next book, which supposedly has "other stuff" on Alex Rodriguez?