Shin-Soo Choo

Last month, one MLB executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that Shin-Soo Choo could fetch $90-$100MM on the open market this winter.  It's a number that probably seems high to many, but agent Scott Boras thinks that figure is actually on the low side.

"As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market," Boras told Heyman. "I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."

Heyman checked in with three other execs on guesses for Choo – two said $75MM over five years and one threw out $56MM for four.  Two of the executives were probably using B.J. Upton's $75.5MM, five-year deal as a comp, and the other was likely looking at Michael Bourn's four-year, $48MM pact with the Indians (and possibly Nick Swisher's four-year, $56MM contract as well).  Boras argues that none of those estimates are on the mark because, in part, they are working off of the assumption that five years is as high as a club will go.  

The agent notes that Werth got seven years from the Nationals, and while Choo isn't exactly a spring chicken, he is the same age (31) that Werth was when he inked his deal. Choo also actually boasts a slightly better career slash line than Werth.  He adds that Choo's value could also get a boost thanks to his ability to play center field and bat leadoff (though a look at defensive metrics like UZR and DRS indicate that Choo is clearly not cut out for center field).

If Choo's next deal is worth $100MM or more, it would be more than just surprising, it would be historical.  Of the 43 players that have received nine-figure deals, only six - Werth, Zack Greinke, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Hampton, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran - had just one All-Star selection before putting pen to paper.  Choo, meanwhile, has never made an All-Star team.

So far, Choo has already been linked to the Mets and Cubs, and he should have plenty of other suitors this offseason. Choo reportedly "loves" Cincinnati, but GM Walt Jocketty was candid earlier in the year in expressing that it would likely be difficult for the team to afford Choo beyond 2013.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Shin-Soo Choo has been even better than the Reds expected in the early going, and as the projected second-best free agent on the market, the natural question is whether the Reds will try to sign him.  Reds GM Walt Jocketty reluctantly addressed the topic, telling MLB.com's Mark Sheldon:

"I hate to even address it.  We got him with the idea we would get him for the year and then try to develop [Billy] Hamilton to play next year. If we're in a position where we think we can sign Choo, it's a big bonus for us. Would we love to? Absolutely. But we have to really look and see where our financial revenues and financial projections of future revenues are. It's still a little early to do that."  Jocketty admitted, "There's not a lot to spare, I can tell you that."

If the Reds allow Bronson Arroyo to leave, they might just be able to squeeze Choo in while keeping a payroll in the $110MM range, if he'd accept a somewhat backloaded contract.  That includes some back of the napkin arbitration calculations on my part.  There are always ways to find a few million bucks, though.

Choo has mostly deflected questions to date about his upcoming free agency.  Talking to Sheldon, Choo didn't add much, but he did note, "I want to stay in the same area for a long time — wherever it is.  Kids need their dad. It's hard in the baseball season — you spend six months away by yourself, and six months you get together in the offseason. I want to stay in one area. But I'm not thinking about it. I'm not thinking about teams or cities."  

If Choo keeps playing like an All-Star, there's little doubt his free agent contract will be one of the longer ones of the 2013-14 offseason.  Still, guarantees of four-plus years are hard to come by in free agency.  Only eight were given to free agents last offseason.  Of those, only three were for a player entering his age 31 or later season: Josh Hamilton for five years, Nick Swisher for four, and Angel Pagan for four.  If long-term security is a key for Choo, perhaps he can sacrifice a bit on his salary to ensure that fifth guaranteed year.  Swisher and Michael Bourn were not able to get it, instead settling for vesting options from the Indians.