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Steve Trachsel

The Resurrection Of Steve Trachsel?

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This article isn’t really about the Orioles trading Steve Trachsel this July; it’s more about how the starter nobody wanted is doing a fine job so far with a 3.82 ERA through 13 starts.

Even a cursory glance at the underlying stats reveal that Trachsel’s success this year is a house of cards.  First, he has an absurdly low strikeout rate of 2.75 per nine.  That’s right, he’s whiffed 23 in 75 innings.  Lowest strikeout rate in the Majors given 70 IP?  We have a winner, although Zach Duke and his 5.75 ERA is right there.

How about his control?  4.3 walks per nine is not good.  Home run rate?  Pretty good at 0.84 per nine, but not likely to last since he’s a flyball pitcher.

So what has Trachsel done well this year?  He’s allowed just eight hits per nine innings, in large part because of a .241 BABIP.  Previous Trachsel BABIPs: .299, .282, .280.  Normal stuff.  The .241 mark is fourth best in baseball, and has no chance of lasting.

The Orioles, owners of perhaps the biggest regression candidate in the game, would do very well to sell high on him right now.  Of course, they’ll wait until his ERA is over 5 instead.

Orioles Sign Steve Trachsel

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UPDATE: The O’s wasted no time replacing Benson, signing Steve Trachsel to a one-year $3.1MM deal with a $4.75MM club option for ’08.  PECOTA says the Orioles overpaid by $625,000.  Assuming he can hold together for 180 innings, Trax should be a tolerable replacement.

The big news today courtesy of Ken Rosenthal is that Orioles starter Kris Benson is out for the season because of a rotator cuff tear.  It’s a bummer for Benson, as it may result in his $7.5MM option for ’08 being declined.

The injury leaves the Orioles scrambling to find a starter who can provide 180 innings of 4.90 ball in the AL East.  Rodrigo Lopez might’ve been that guy; Hayden Penn probably isn’t ready to do that yet.  The team will probably bring in a veteran replacement.  Rosenthal mentions Steve Trachsel as the most likely, as well as Mark Redman and Ron Villone.  Villone last started in 2004.

Additionally, there are plenty of trade options, as discussed yesterday.  Mike Maroth would be a nice pickup. 

Orioles Sign Steve Trachsel

By | at

UPDATE: The O’s wasted no time replacing Benson, signing Steve Trachsel to a one-year $3.1MM deal with a $4.75MM club option for ’08.  PECOTA says the Orioles overpaid by $625,000.  Assuming he can hold together for 180 innings, Trax should be a tolerable replacement.

The big news today courtesy of Ken Rosenthal is that Orioles starter Kris Benson is out for the season because of a rotator cuff tear.  It’s a bummer for Benson, as it may result in his $7.5MM option for ’08 being declined.

The injury leaves the Orioles scrambling to find a starter who can provide 180 innings of 4.90 ball in the AL East.  Rodrigo Lopez might’ve been that guy; Hayden Penn probably isn’t ready to do that yet.  The team will probably bring in a veteran replacement.  Rosenthal mentions Steve Trachsel as the most likely, as well as Mark Redman and Ron Villone.  Villone last started in 2004.

Additionally, there are plenty of trade options, as discussed yesterday.  Mike Maroth would be a nice pickup. 

Nats Not Interested In Trachsel

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Apparently Steve Trachsel has priced himself out of the Nationals’ range ($3 million is too much I guess).  Washington is not one of the three teams in the running for him, according to Bill Ladson.

A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros were talking to Trax but that Tim Purpura did not consider it hot and heavy.  The Twins are out now too.  So who are these two other teams?

Trachsel was born in Oxnard, CA, so maybe he’d like to play on the west coast.  The Dodgers and Angels would be closest to his hometown, but those teams have fully booked rotations.  The Padres, Giants, and A’s are further away.  I wouldn’t put it past the Giants to sign Trachsel to use instead of Jonathan Sanchez.  Or maybe Trachsel could help as the veteran presence in Tampa Bay’s rotation?  Perhaps some Kyle Davies insurance for the Braves? 

Honestly, I have no idea who the other teams would be.

Nats Not Interested In Trachsel

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Apparently Steve Trachsel has priced himself out of the Nationals’ range ($3 million is too much I guess).  Washington is not one of the three teams in the running for him, according to Bill Ladson.

A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros were talking to Trax but that Tim Purpura did not consider it hot and heavy.  The Twins are out now too.  So who are these two other teams?

Trachsel was born in Oxnard, CA, so maybe he’d like to play on the west coast.  The Dodgers and Angels would be closest to his hometown, but those teams have fully booked rotations.  The Padres, Giants, and A’s are further away.  I wouldn’t put it past the Giants to sign Trachsel to use instead of Jonathan Sanchez.  Or maybe Trachsel could help as the veteran presence in Tampa Bay’s rotation?  Perhaps some Kyle Davies insurance for the Braves? 

Honestly, I have no idea who the other teams would be.

Astros Flirting With Trachsel

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According to Tim Purpura, the Astros are flirting with free agent Steve Trachsel, but no heavy petting has taken place.  Or something like that.  Ken Rosenthal, for one, thinks the Astros should stop fretting about the $2-3MM price tag and sign him already for some depth.

Personally, I don’t know.  I see what Trax has done this decade, and it’s respectable.  But the man is in serious decline.  PECOTA says Chris Sampson, Fernando Nieve, or Troy Patton could do pretty much the same thing for the league minimum.  This smacks of the Ramon Ortiz signing.  It’s just not a good way to spend three million bucks.  So what if Trachsel’s a known quantity?  At least one of the kids has a chance at taking a leap forward.

Astros Flirting With Trachsel

By | at

According to Tim Purpura, the Astros are flirting with free agent Steve Trachsel, but no heavy petting has taken place.  Or something like that.  Ken Rosenthal, for one, thinks the Astros should stop fretting about the $2-3MM price tag and sign him already for some depth.

Personally, I don’t know.  I see what Trax has done this decade, and it’s respectable.  But the man is in serious decline.  PECOTA says Chris Sampson, Fernando Nieve, or Troy Patton could do pretty much the same thing for the league minimum.  This smacks of the Ramon Ortiz signing.  It’s just not a good way to spend three million bucks.  So what if Trachsel’s a known quantity?  At least one of the kids has a chance at taking a leap forward.

Mets Scoop: Tavarez, Zito, Benson, Baez

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A slew of information coming from my Mets source today.  Let’s see what we’ve got.

My source believes the Mets will give Julian Tavarez the four-year deal he’s looking for.  The market explosion has necessitated this length, and Omar Minaya will go to great lengths to avoid a subpar bullpen like last year’s.

The Mets are the current frontrunners for Barry Zito, and Lastings Milledge is still a requirement.  As reported earlier, the Mets plan to request a 72 hour contract extension window upon trading for Zito, but would make the trade with just a verbal agreement from the pitcher.  Zito’s best years came under Rick Peterson’s guidance, so it’d be a good fit.

The Mets don’t have the upper hand in any possible Kris Benson trade, so teams are backing off and offering less value.  The feeling is that Anna Benson’s media tirades are precluding small market teams from acquiring her husband.  Anna has definitely decreased Kris’s value around baseball.  She knows that her career will stall if they end up in a place like Kansas City, so she’ll do anything she can to stay in New York.

If the Mets can’t get fair value for Benson, Steve Trachsel and/or Victor Zambrano may be dealt for prospects.  The Mets hope to acquire players that would appeal to the A’s as part of a Zito deal.

The Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez rumors that have been floating around are false.

Not surprisingly, there’s no market for Kaz Matsui, even at a 50% off discount.  While they’d prefer Mark Grudzielanek, the Mets are OK with their depth at second base.

Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed

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We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets.  The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano.  The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield). 

The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation.  Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004).  That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road.  On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003.  Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched.  He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.

Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season.  He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops.  He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.

The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup.  He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG).  The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%.  Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05. 

Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005.  According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005.  He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.

Sources:

Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts

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