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Terrin Vavra

AL East Notes: Hall, Vavra, White

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Baltimore’s opening day rotation picture is a little clearer now after manager Brandon Hyde revealed he doesn’t believe DL Hall will be stretched out enough to handle a starting workload to begin the season, per Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. Hall had been a candidate to take a spot in a rotation that is very much up in the air behind Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson but was experiencing lower back discomfort late in the off-season, which appears to have put him a bit behind schedule.

The question now for the Orioles is whether they option Hall to Triple-A to begin the season, or have him pitch out of the bullpen in the big leagues. Hall had a brief stint in the big leagues last season, working to a 5.93 ERA over 11 appearances (one start). That did come with a completely unsustainable .436 BABIP, and Hall did post a quality 29.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate to indicate he did pitch much better than the 5.93 ERA suggests.

Hall was competing for, presumably, one of three available rotation spots. Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin look like certainties to take two spots, and Hall, Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth and others were candidates to fill the remaining spots. With Hall now removed from that equation, it does increase the chances that top pitching prospect Rodriguez cracks the opening day rotation.

Here’s some more notes from around the AL East:

  • Sticking with the Orioles to begin with, and Ruiz reports that utilityman Terrin Vavra is day-to-day with left shoulder discomfort. According to Hyde, Vavra experienced soreness while taking pre-game batting practice. There doesn’t appear to be too much reason for concern given we’re still a little under a month away from the start of the regular season. Vavra slashed .258/.340/.337 across 103 plate appearances during his rookie year last season. He spent time in the infield and outfield, and projects as a useful versatile bench option for the Orioles going into the new season.
  • Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that Mitch White is a few weeks behind schedule but is feeling good and threw a side session today as he builds back from a shoulder impingement suffered in January. White had been a contender for Toronto’s fifth rotation spot, and while there’s nothing definitive ruling him out of that, the fact he’s still a few weeks behind schedule would suggest it’s unlikely he’ll be stretched out enough to be in the rotation picture by opening day. That would mean Yusei Kikuchi, who lost his rotation spot last year, would be the favorite to join Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the Blue Jays’ rotation. White, acquired from the Dodgers last summer, struggled to a 7.74 ERA over 43 innings for Toronto last season. That came after a much more promising 56 innings of work with the Dodgers earlier in the season, whereby White worked to a 3.70 ERA. His peripherals were largely the same across both teams, and indeed his FIP for the Dodgers of 3.95 was actually worse than the 3.76 mark he had with the Blue Jays. White is out of minor league options.

Quick Hits: Muñoz, Sadler, Vavra

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke with the media this week, including Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN, in advance of the start of Spring Training. During those talks, Dipoto provided an update on reliever Andrés Muñoz.

Muñoz, 24, had a tremendous breakout last year, posting a 2.49 earned run average over 64 appearances. That ERA probably shortchanges Munoz a bit, who struck out 38.7% of batters faced while walking just 6% of them and got ground balls at a 52.6% clip. ERA estimators all thought he actually deserved better, including a 2.04 FIP, 1.84 xERA and 1.74 SIERA. After the club was eliminated from the postseason in October, he underwent foot surgery, but he’s already out of a walking boot and began a throwing program two weeks ago.

The fireballer has emerged as a key piece of the club’s bullpen, something they seemingly anticipated when they extended him after the 2021 season. The righty had just returned from Tommy John surgery and made a single appearance that year, but the M’s had enough faith to sign him to a four-year, $7.5MM extension with three club options. That could keep him as a fixture of the club’s relief corps through the 2028 season, and his current health is surely a good sign for the club going into 2023.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Dipoto also provided an update on another reliever in 32-year-old Casey Sadler, who is coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery but is going to be ready to go for Spring Training this year. In 2021, Sadler made 42 appearances for the M’s with a ridiculous 0.67 ERA. That level of run prevention was in no way sustainable, with Sadler benefitting from a .188 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate. But his 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 62.9% ground ball rate all point to an excellent campaign nonetheless, with Sadler pegged for a 2.48 FIP, 2.41 xERA and 3.06 SIERA. Unfortunately, he required the surgery on his shoulder in March of 2022, which kept him out for all of that year. The Mariners outrighted him off the roster in November but re-signed him to a minor league deal. “If we get that ’21 version of Casey Sadler with the bullpen group we currently have, that just takes us to a different level,” Dipoto said. Despite trading Erik Swanson to the Blue Jays in the Teoscar Hernández deal, the M’s bullpen is still pretty packed. Munoz should be joined by Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo, Matt Brash, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa and Trevor Gott, as well as Rule 5 draftee Chris Clarke. If the rotation is fully healthy, Chris Flexen should be in the bullpen as well as a long reliever. Sadler was so good in 2021 that he could force his way into the picture if he looks like he’s back on track. Despite the crowding, pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable and this pile of depth should serve Seattle well as the season progress.
  • Orioles utility player Terrin Vavra, 26 in May, cracked the majors last year and managed fairly well by hitting .258/.340/.337 in his first 103 plate appearances. That production was just barely below league average, with his wRC+ coming in at 97, though he hit a much sturdier .324/.435/.451 in Triple-A. Between the two levels, he played second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions, making him a usefully versatile piece of the club’s roster. It seems he’s not satisfied with that level of versatility and has been working to add first base to his repertoire this offseason. “I don’t think until I really play a game over there, I’ll truly feel the most comfortable, but that’s what spring training’s for,” Vavra tells Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun. “I think I’ll get some opportunities to showcase that and showcase other talents and try and make my case. I want to be able to show that I can do that, and I want the coaching staff to be confident if they had to send me out there, Day 1 of spring training even.” The O’s have been looking to find left-handed bats to complement right-hander Ryan Mountcastle in the first base mix, acquiring Lewin Díaz and Ryan O’Hearn this offseason, as well as signing Franchy Cordero, Josh Lester and Nomar Mazara to minor league deals. But Vavra, who also hits left-handed, could have a leg up on that group since none of them are on the 40-man but Vavra is. On the other hand, Vavra has option years remaining and could be ticketed for some more time in the minors if he gets squeezed off the active roster.

Orioles Notes: Santander, Vavra, Odor, Farm System

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The Orioles have been getting right fielder Anthony Santander some practice at first base and could play him on the infield at least occasionally down the stretch, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters this weekend (link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubtako). That shift could be accompanied by other changes in the infield, which began yesterday with Rougned Odor moving to third base in deference to 25-year-old Terrin Vavra, who received his first big league start at second base.

Santander, 27, has never played a Major League game at first base but did get some minor league work there several years ago. He generally rates as an above-average defender in right field, per both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, although his ratings have slipped this season. With several young outfielders rising through the system including MLB-ready Kyle Stowers and fast-rising 2021 top pick Colton Cowser, it’s of extra note that Santander could reacclimate to another spot on the diamond. Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins are generally locked into outfield spots, so shifting Santander around certainly makes some sense.

Of course, even moderately enhancing Santander’s defensive versatility will also potentially make him a bit more appealing on the offseason trade market. The switch-hitting Santander drew some interest this summer, as he’s done for the past couple seasons, but the O’s hung onto him and for now can continue to enjoy his .255/.334/.452 output. Santander is on pace to set new career-highs in plate appearances, home runs and doubles this season, provided he remains healthy down the stretch. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 23.1% last season to 18.6% this season and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to a career-best 8.2%.

Santander is earning $3.15MM this season and remains under club control through the 2024 campaign via arbitration. He’s already been through that process twice as a Super Two player and will be due another pair of raises before hitting the open market just after his 30th birthday in the 2024-25 offseason.

As for the move of Odor to the hot corner, it’s only sensible to get as long a look as Vavra as possible down the stretch in 2022. Second base is Vavra’s primary (and best) position, and after he hit .312/.425/.444 through 229 minor league plate appearances this season (mostly in Triple-A), he appears ready for a look in the big leagues. However, the O’s also have fellow infield prospect Jordan Westburg knocking on the door of the big leagues, if not late in 2022 then likely early in the 2023 season. Westburg, who landed 98th on Baseball America’s latest top 100 rankings, has posted a combined .255/.332/.470 slash between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s seen his walk rate cut in half jumping from Double-A to Triple-A and perhaps has some strikeout issues to sort through (26.1% this year), but given his general proximity to the big leagues, taking a proactive look at Vavra makes sense.

It seems fair to question just how much longer the veteran Odor will factor into the plans at all, given that the longtime Rangers infielder has posted just a .193/.257/.365 batting line in 331 plate appearances this year. The lefty-swinging Odor has actually posted worse results against right-handers than against southpaws and turned in below-average defensive grades at second base (-5 DRS, -2.9 UZR, -5 OAA).

From a broader perspective, veterans of the Odor ilk will have a more difficult time finding opportunity in Baltimore at all before too long. Despite graduating former No. 1 overall prospect Adley Rutschman to the Major League roster, the O’s still have baseball’s best all-round farm system, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel opined in today’s updated rankings of the game’s 30 minor league systems. Some of that is due to another No.  1 overall pick being added to the system this season, but it’s also due largely to the rise of shortstop prospect Gunnar Henderson, whom Baseball America tabs as its new No. 1 overall farmhand in another just-released set of rankings.

Henderson, like Westburg, has split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing at a combined .304/.429/.556 clip with 17 home runs, 20 doubles, six triples, 16 steals (in 19 tries), a huge 16.7% walk rate and a 20.8% strikeout rate. With 205 Triple-A plate appearances already under his belt, it’s at least feasible that he could also be an option late in the season — and, if not, then certainly early in 2023. However things pan out in the short-term, the looming presence of Henderson, Westburg, Vavra and others figures to directly impact Odor, Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo and other infield options before too long.

Orioles Select DL Hall, Five Others

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The Baltimore Orioles have added 6 players to their 40-man roster, the club announced. The names making their way to the roster include left-handed pitchers DL Hall and Kevin Smith, right-handed pitchers Félix Bautista, Kyle Bradish, and Logan Gillaspie, and infielder Terrin Vavra. These additions bring Baltimore’s roster up to just shy of full capacity, at 39 players.

A starting pitcher, DL Hall has been a frequenter of top prospect lists for a few years now in the Baltimore organization. The former first-rounder dominated in his first taste of Double-A in 2021, pitching to a 3.13 ERA with a ludicrous 43.8% of batters striking out against him through 31+ innings. The 22-year-old incurred a left elbow injury that ended his season prematurely, however.

Fellow left-hander Kevin Smith had a mixed season in 2021, flashing strong strikeout (35% strikeout rate) and run prevention numbers (1.34 ERA) in 26 Double-A innings but struggling upon promotion to Triple-A. MLB.com projects Smith as a serviceable Major League-caliber pitcher in the future, but he’ll first have to iron out the rough control issues (17.9% walk rate) that spoiled his Triple-A season.

The 26-year-old Bautista saw his stock sore after a brilliant 2021 season across three levels. Altogether, the right-handed reliever posted a minuscule 1.54 ERA through Triple-A, striking out droves at each level and surrendering just two home runs in 46 innings. If there was one nit to pick, it would be that Bautista’s command was wobbly, as his walk-rate rose as high as 19.3% at the Double-A level.

Right-handed starter Kyle Bradish followed a similar trend as the two most previously listed pitchers, as he dominated in Double-A before coming back to earth a bit after a promotion to the next level. After striking out nearly two batters in inning in 13+ scoreless Double-A frames, Bradish struggled to miss bats or hit the strike zone as often in Triple-A, putting up 4.26 ERA in 86 innings. All told the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.68 ERA and may find himself making his debut for a pitching-strapped Orioles squad in the near future.

Logan Gillaspie, a catcher-turned-reliever out of indie ball, pitched to a 4.97 ERA across 41 innings as he climbed to Double-A for the first time. That ERA may not be the best indicator of Gillaspie’s skills however, as the 24-year-old had a strikeout rate just under 30% to go with above average command and groundball-inducing abilities.

Terrin Vavra is last on the list, as the 24-year-old second baseman is being protected on the heels of a .275/.406/.449 showing. Injuries allowed Vavra to play in just 48 games during the 2021 season, but his patience and ability to play center field in a pinch clearly drew the favor of Baltimore evaluators.

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