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Twins Notes: Cruz, Donaldson, Hill

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Nelson Cruz hit .311/.392/.639 with 41 homers in his first season in Minnesota, making it an easy call for the Twins to exercise their $12MM club option on the veteran slugger for 2020.  Cruz can be a free agent next winter, though GM Thad Levine told fans and reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) at this weekend’s TwinsFest fan event that “we are having ongoing conversations with [Cruz’s] agent to discuss mutual interest in the future.”

Though Cruz has continued to swing a mighty bat into his late 30’s, he signed with the Twins for just one guaranteed year (worth $14.3MM in guaranteed money) with the 2020 club option last winter, as his age and DH-only lineup deployment limited his market.  It’s fair to assume that those same factors could impact Cruz again this coming offseason, even if he has another big season in 2020.  Cruz turns 40 in July, so perhaps a modest one-year extension covering the 2021 season would be acceptable to both sides.  The Twins would be making a minimal risk in an aging player who has shown no signs of falling off at the plate, while Cruz would get some extra reward and security, while sidestepping the free agent market to stay in a familiar environment with a contending team.

Here’s more from the Twin Cities….

  • The Twins’ signing of Josh Donaldson is chronicled by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (subscription required) in a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at the courtship between the two sides.  Most of the deal’s financial elements (four years and $92MM, plus a club option for 2024) were already put forward by the Twins as early as mid-December, though that left several weeks of uncertainty on both sides as Donaldson pondered his options and began to learn more about the Minnesota organization.  “There were times we thought we had a zero percent chance of signing (Donaldson).  There were times we thought we had something a lot better,” Levine said.  The process was also somewhat complicated by Levine going on vacation in late December, as chief baseball officer Derek Falvey then stepped in to continue negotiations with Donaldson’s representatives.
  • Rich Hill is still targeting early June for his return date to the majors, and the date of his debut in a Twins uniform.  Hill told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that he will begin baseball activities next week, as the veteran left-hander continues to recover from primary revision surgery in November.  Though Hill pitched with a detached UCL for much of the 2019 season, the injury wasn’t serious enough to require Tommy John surgery, which is why he opted for the lesser-known primary revision procedure that offered a shorter recovery timeframe.  “It’s only a six-year-old surgery, and it’s had a huge amount of success of people who have had it and come back.  I think it’s above a 95 percent success rate, so it’s something that I’m extremely excited about,” Hill said.  The Twins signed Hill to a one-year deal in December worth $3MM in guaranteed money, though Hill only needs to pitch as many as 25 innings to start unlocking the $9.5MM in extra incentive bonuses in the contract.

Twins Sign Rich Hill, Homer Bailey

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The Twins have pulled off a fascinating New Year’s Eve double-strike. The club announced that hurlers Rich Hill and Homer Bailey have each agreed to contracts, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link).

Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown. Bailey’s contract comes with a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings, Hayes tweets.

There’s a lot to process here. More than anything, it’s a highly notable development for a Twins club that entered the offseason promising to pursue impact arms. Perhaps now the club will turn over its still-stuffed war chest in pursuit of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

We’ve already seen the Twins move to retain Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, though the latter will open the year on the restricted list while he finishes a suspension for a banned masking agent. Having bid adieu to Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Minnesota org was left with a mix of rather inexperienced rotation candidates such as Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak.

Now, Bailey slots into an immediate rotation spot while Hill joins Pineda as an anticipated mid-season boost. Hill is working back from elbow surgery and likely won’t be available on the MLB mound until the summer. In effect, the organization has pre-purchased a pair of trade deadline rotation pieces. That’ll make it tough to add any other clear-cut starters now or in the summer trade market, unless it becomes clear that the expected timelines can’t be met.

All things considered, it’s quite the value-driven gambit for the Twins, who raced out to an AL Central title last year but face competition for the crown in 2020. The organization made no secret of its desire to land higher-quality starters, but came away without any of the major hurlers that populated the free agent market.

[RELATED: Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It]

There’s much to commend about both Hill and Bailey, but it’d be tough to say that the new duo is a clear upgrade over the outgoing two-some of Gibson and Perez. The Twins obviously prefer the price tag on the two they’ve landed, but there is a reason that other organizations were willing to promise bigger money to Gibson (three years, $30MM) and Perez (one year, $6MM).

The Twins do have some real potential impact in Hill, despite the fact that he’ll celebrate his 40th birthday before throwing a pitch for the organization. The resurgent veteran has thrown limited innings since his reemergence — both by design and due to injuries — but has been awesome when available. Dating back to his late-2015 run with the Red Sox, he carries a 2.91 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 466 1/3 innings.

Given the unusual incentive structure of Hill’s deal, it’s obvious both that the Twins anticipate a mid-season debut and that they won’t expect him to turn in overly lengthy outings. The master curveballer only flung 58 2/3 frames in his 13 starts last year with the Dodgers, and he can now max out his incentives package if he can extend that just a bit. The organization evidently wasn’t worried by Hill’s recent arrest in an incident he called “overblown.”

If Hill gets back to health and back to his now-typical form, he’ll provide a weapon down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason berth. The addition of Bailey seems intended to address rather a different need — solid innings over the course of the season — though he also comes with a sort of upside of his own.

The 33-year-old Bailey had a nice bounceback showing in 2019, particularly after a mid-season move from the Royals to the Athletics. He finished the campaign with 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a season full of explosive offensive performances, those were rather useful frames. Bailey logged 2.9 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR in 2019, the sort of output that would justify his current contract if repeated.

Notably, Bailey showed an uptick in his swinging-strike rate, posting a 10.8% level that he hadn’t touched since his heyday. That’s increasingly easy to accomplish in today’s game but still notable for a pitcher that generally fills up the zone. Bailey’s 93+ mph average fastball was shy of his peak but in line with his post-Tommy John levels. His mid-season strides don’t seem to correspond to any major changes to his approach or pitch quality, so there’s no particular reason to expect a late-career breakout, but his peripherals and Statcast numbers generally support Bailey’s low-4 ERA output.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free-Agent LHP Rich Hill Arrested

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Free-agent left-hander Rich Hill was arrested Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., after his wife, Caitlin Hill, “repeatedly” tried to enter an NFL game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills with an oversized bag, John R. Ellement of the Boston Globe reports. Although police ordered the Hills to leave the grounds, they refused to so.

Caitlin Hill was booked on disorderly conduct and trespassing, but Rich Hill allegedly attempted to stop the authorities from taking her away in a police transport vehicle. As a result, he was arrested on charges of disorderly conduct and resisting arrest. However, the Hills’ charges have since been reduced to civil infractions. Rich Hill was fined $500 for a single count of disorderly conduct.

Hill then issued a statement, saying: “Despite Saturday’s events, my great respect for law enforcement remains unchanged. However, seeing my wife cuffed for a problem that started because of her fanny pack was extremely difficult to witness. This was all overblown and am glad to have it behind us.’’

It’s unlikely this arrest will have a serious effect on the market for Hill, who’s one of the most accomplished hurlers left in a consistently dwindling class of free-agent starters. If anything, the fact that Hill’s soon to turn 40, coming off primary revision surgery and won’t be ready to pitch again until the summer seem far more likely to weigh on teams’ minds if they consider signing him.

To Hill’s credit, although injuries have been a consistent problem since he unexpectedly revived his career with the Red Sox in 2015, he has pitched quite well when healthy. As a member of the Dodgers last season, Hill turned in a 2.45 ERA/4.10 FIP with 11.05 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate, though he did so over a mere 13 starts and 58 2/3 innings.

Free Agent Notes: Akiyama, Hill, Romo, Kim, Rojas

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Notes on some prominent names on the open market…

  • We heard earlier today about Shogo Akiyama’s camp meeting with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link) adds that Akiyama and company also spoke with the Rays and Reds.  Contracts in the range of $8MM-$10MM over two years were discussed — this is a step up from MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $6MM deal, though Akiyama’s higher ask could reflect the level of interest in his services, not to mention this offseason’s thin center field market.
  • Rich Hill has been in touch with multiple teams, the veteran lefty tells The Athletic’s Andy McCullough (subscription required), including his top two choices of the Dodgers and Red Sox, as well as “a whole bunch of other teams that are going to be contenders in 2020.”  Though Hill won’t be able to pitch until midseason due to primary revision surgery on his UCL, he is “definitely not opposed to signing now.  I think that does give the opportunity for the team, to be honest, to benefit from my experience as a whole. You’ve got a guy who comes into Spring Training as a veteran, and can help younger guys out.”  Despite numerous injuries in recent years, Hill has been borderline elite when he has been able to take the mound, posting a 2.91 ERA, 3.79 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 over 466 1/3 innings since the start of the 2015 season.
  • The Red Sox have some interest in Sergio Romo, though they “don’t seem to be the most aggressive suitor” for the veteran reliever, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes (Twitter link).  The Athletics, Marlins, and Twins have all been linked to Romo’s market this offseason, and there was some belief last week that he could sign his new deal before the end of the Winter Meetings.
  • Left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim “is believed to be seeking a three-year deal,” according to Jeff Sanders and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  It seems like something of a bold ask from a 31-year-old pitcher who is coming to the big leagues for the first time, especially since there isn’t agreement as to whether or not Kim is best suited for a starting or relieving job against MLB competition.  (Kim is reportedly looking to start.)  That said, Kim’s salary demands aren’t known, and since at least six teams are known to have interest, it can’t hurt to aim high in the early days of his posting period.
  • Another player from the KBO League, Mel Rojas Jr. is also hearing from several Major League clubs, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets.  Rojas was a third-round pick for the Pirates in 2010 who played seven seasons in the minors before joining the KT Wiz prior to the 2017 season.  Since going to South Korea and the hitter-friendly KBO League, Rojas has posted an impressive .310/.377/.561 with 85 homers over 1590 PA.  Rojas is looking for guaranteed deal for a return back to North American baseball, as he’ll otherwise probably remain with the KT Wiz.

Market Chatter: Rangers/Rendon, Nats Spending, Betts, Hill, Maldonado

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The Rangers feel like they’re in solid position on star third baseman Anthony Rendon, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. It appears as if the possibility of a shorter deal at a premium AAV might hold some appeal to the Rangers as well as Rendon. But it’s tough to gauge the likelihood that he’ll land in Texas. Per Sullivan, the sides have yet to launch “serious negotiations” on the price tag. You can be sure that Scott Boras will not rush into a signing if he feels competition can drive the price up yet further, so there’s likely some market development yet to come.

More recent chatter …

  • Agent Scott Boras expressed skepticism regarding the Nationals’ recent declaration that they can’t afford both Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The super-agent tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that he sees ample capacity for the D.C. organization, which has done quite a lot of business with Boras over the years (to mutual satisfaction, for the most part). Britt Ghiroli provides further assessment of the situation in another Athletic piece, proffering a sensible distinction between what the club can do and what it prefers. As she points out, too, it’s also possible that owner Mark Lerner made the comments to buttress his bargaining position. And it’s probably fair to add that the Nats have generally not shied from carrying big payrolls and making large commitments in the recent past.
  • Also skeptical? Rival executives, regarding the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s really not surprising to hear, though the reasoning offered by Nightengale’s sources is a bit confounding. The issue, he says, is that rival clubs won’t offer all that much for the outstanding outfielder. They “can simply wait until he’s a free agent next winter” rather than taking on a big salary and giving up valuable prospects. That seems to miss the point in large part, as a team acquiring Betts now would be doing so specifically to pick up his highly valuable age-27 season. Renting one of the game’s best players would obviously alter a team’s outlook for the coming season rather drastically; it stands to reason it’d cost something to do so.
  • Lefty Rich Hill has not only drawn wide interest despite major elbow surgery … it seems he’s open to considering offers from all teams, so long as they have hopes of winning in 2020. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Hill says he’s not focused solely on his two preferred landing spots (the Dodgers and Red Sox). While it seems that he’d still rather end up in one of those two places, the veteran says that they “might not work out.” He’s open to considering other contenders. And Hill left no doubt that he anticipates playing a big role in the 2020 season, saying he hopes to be ready to roll by June.
  • The Angels are planning to sit down with backstop Martin Maldonado at the Winter Meetings, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That’s not especially portentous news, as Fletcher points out, as teams hold many such meetings this time of year. Still, it’s a notable connection, particularly since the catching market has developed on a relatively rapid timetable. The 33-year-old Maldonado spent on the Halos roster in 2017 and 2018, so the organization is plenty familiar with him.

Quick Hits: Hill, Wheeler, Twins, O’s, Rays

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Free-agent left-hander Rich Hill drew interest from ten teams at last week’s GM Meetings, he tells J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That interest was in spite of the primary revision surgery Hill has undergone this offseason, which will likely sideline him until at least June. However, Hill, 40 in March, has remained extremely effective when he’s been able to pitch, and it seems teams are keen on him despite the injury risk. The veteran didn’t indicate whether he’d prefer to sign this offseason and rehab under the supervision of a team or wait until he’s fully healthy to showcase for teams next summer.

  • The Twins have right-hander Zack Wheeler “very high on their list of pitching targets,” reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unsurprising, as Wheeler is the number three starting pitching option on this year’s free agent market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in the Twins’ offseason outlook, the organization’s long-term payroll is relatively open, and starting pitching stands as the team’s biggest need this offseason. José Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are the only locks to be in the rotation next season. Wheeler figures to draw a robust market, as the MLBTR staff forecasted him for a five-year, $100MM deal at the offseason’s outset.
  • The Orioles have named Rockies assistant Anthony Sanders their first base coach, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the O’s would hire him for that role. Sanders is a former professional outfielder who spent 14 years coaching with the Rockies. He’ll take over for Arnie Beyeler in Baltimore.
  • The Rays have hired former Astros scout Greg Brown as their hitting coordinator, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first suggested the Rays would choose Brown, who had been the head coach at Nova Southeastern University. Heyman notes Brown signed now-Red Sox star J.D. Martinez back when he was a scout with Houston. Of course, Martinez didn’t truly blossom until he ended up in Detroit several years later.

Rich Hill Undergoes Surgery, Won’t Be Ready For Opening Day

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Free-agent lefty Rich Hill won’t be ready for the start of the 2020 season after undergoing primary revision surgery, reports WEEI’s Rob Bradford. It’s unlikely that the 39-year-old would be ready to return until June, and he could be delayed into July as well.

A source familiar with the procedure tells MLBTR that the operation is similar to the Tommy John alternative that right-hander Seth Maness underwent a few years go. Primary revision (also sometimes referred to as “primary repair”) is a less-intrusive repair of a tear in a player’s ulnar collateral ligament and comes with a shorter rehab period. However, not all UCL tears make for good candidates to undergo the operation. The procedure is dependent on the general health of the tissue as well as the placement and extent of the tear. Hill, who actually pitched through the injury for some of the 2019 season, was deemed a good candidate for the lesser-known procedure.

Although he’ll turn 40 next March, Hill has voiced a desire to continue pitching as long as he can and has been vocal about his desire to return to the Dodgers. He’s also expressed some interest in pitching with the Red Sox again, as a Boston native whose family still resides in the area. Now, rather than opening the season in a rotation, Hill could instead be a midseason reinforcement. Whether he’ll sign a contract this winter and attempt to rehab with his 2020 team or wait until he’s able to demonstrate his health for clubs next summer isn’t known.

Knee issues and a forearm strain wiped out a fair bit of Hill’s 2019 season, limiting him to 58 2/3 innings in what was the final season of a three-year, $48MM contract with the Dodgers. But Hill was excellent when healthy enough to take the ball, pitching to a 2.45 ERA with a 72-to-18 K/BB ratio and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate in that time. Hill missed time in each of the three seasons of that contract with L.A. but did log a 3.30 earned run average with nearly 11.0 K/9 in a total of 327 regular-season innings (plus another 37 innings of 2.43 ERA ball).

Since resurrecting his career with the Red Sox late in the 2015 season, Hill has pitched 466 1/3 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9.

Rich Hill Hopes To Re-Sign With Dodgers

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The Dodgers’ season came to a bitterly disappointing conclusion Wednesday, but left-hander Rich Hill hopes it wasn’t the last time he dons their uniform. The pending free agent said after the club’s NLDS-ending loss to the Nationals that he wants to remain a Dodger in 2020, Andy McCullough of The Athletic tweets.

Hill’s weeks away from another trip to the open market, where he cashed in with the Dodgers entering the 2017 campaign. The late-career breakout hurler, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Athletics the previous summer, re-signed with Los Angeles on a three-year, $48MM contract. When Hill was healthy enough to take the mound, he lived up to that payday, evidenced by a 3.30 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.68 K/9 against 2.97 BB/9. The problem is that injuries have consistently haunted Hill, who tossed just 327 regular-season innings over the life of his deal. He only amassed 58 2/3 in 2019, during which he totaled a mere 8 1/3 (including 2 2/3 in the playoffs) from June 20 onward.

Not only has a lack of durability hampered Hill, but as someone who’s set to turn 40 in March, he’s going into free agency as one of the oldest players available. However, even though free agency has been unkind to many aging players in the past couple offseasons, it shouldn’t preclude Hill from securing another guaranteed contract. After all, he’s still a bear to deal with for opposing offenses when he takes the mound, as he showed this year with a 2.45 ERA/4.10 FIP, 11.05 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate.

While Hill’s plenty useful even in an injury-limited capacity, it’s unknown how serious the Dodgers will consider keeping him around. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are sure to remain part of their rotation in 2020, while Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Dustin May, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin also represent in-house options who could factor into the mix. And with the offseason ahead, the Dodgers may pick up an outsider(s) in lieu of bringing back Hill and/or fellow soon-to-be free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Postseason Notes: Wild Card, Brewers, Dodgers

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As twenty teams prepare to pack it in for the offseason, a few odds and ends concerning those still remaining in the battle for a World Series crown…

  • The 2019 playoff picture is officially set. The Rays will head to Oakland for the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday, Oct. 2, with first pitch at 8:09 pm EST. Earlier this week, Rays manager Kevin Cash appeared on MLB Network Radio, where he made comments indicating that Charlie Morton would take the ball on Wednesday for Tampa. No official word has come from the Athletics regarding their own one-game stopper, but Billy Beane hinted to the San Francisco Chronicle that Sean Manaea may have the “inside track” to tackle the opportunity.
    The Nationals and Brewers will do battle on Tuesday at 8:08 pm EST in Washington D.C. for the NL play-in spot, where Max Scherzer is expected to take the ball for the Nationals. Meanwhile, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that Brandon Woodruff will be trusted by manager Craig Counsell to best Scherzer in the winner-moves-on affair (link). Woodruff may not carry the imposing resumé of Scherzer (nor does he possess a rare genetic variation that endows him with transfixing, multi-colored eyes), but he has looked the part of a frontline starter when healthy in 2019, with a 3.62 ERA (3.01 FIP) in 121.2 innings this season.
  • In other Brewers-related news, outfielder Ryan Braun expects to play in that Tuesday tilt against D.C. Haudricort also relays that outfielder Lorenzo Cain is “hopeful” for the game (link). Braun is dealing with a calf issue, while Cain has a balky ankle. As previously noted here, the Brewers may be limited to Trent Grisham or Tyrone Taylor in center if Cain is indeed too hindered to give it a ’go’ on Tuesday night.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t yet announced the full pitching lineup for the NLDS, but he tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Time that he is “feeling really good” about trusting Rich Hill with potential Game 4 duties (link). Hill was only activated from the IL on September 24th but did strike out five Padre hitters in just two innings of work in that appearance. As the number-one seed in the National League, the Dodgers will host the winner of the Nats-Brewers Wild Card play-in matchup. The Dodgers, in fact, will play at home throughout the postseason, unless they face the Astros in the World Series–by posting an MLB-best 107-55 record, Houston clinched homefield advantage through the Fall Classic.

 

Dodgers Notes: Kelly, Muncy, Hill

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Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly has recently regained the form he exhibited in last season’s postseason, as his 2.51 ERA in 32.1 innings since June 1st is exactly what L.A. brass had in mind when the club inked him to a three-year/$25MM deal this past winter. Unfortunately, Kelly’s recent performance has been maintained despite nagging lower-body issues, with manager Dave Roberts telling MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick today that said issues will limit Kelly’s usage leading into the playoffs (link). The Dodgers wrapped up the NL West over a week ago, so it stands to reason that Roberts would currently opt for kid gloves in handling his banged-up players.

A few other L.A. notes courtesy of Ken Gurnick today…

  • Utilityman Max Muncy suffered a quad injury in Friday night’s 12-5 victory over Colorado on Friday, but Roberts defines him as “playable” for tonight’s game, with an expected return to the starting lineup slated for Sunday (link). It was only days ago that the 29-year-old Muncy returned from a fractured wrist, so it’s imperative that the club gets him right for October. After exploding into public consciousness in 2018 with a ridiculous .263/.391/.582 campaign (162 wRC+), Muncy has proven to be far from a one-year wonder in 2019. His .248/.368/.510 line through 562 at-bats has been good enough for a 131 wRC+ on the year.
  • It’s been a yo-yo season for starter Rich Hill, as the lanky 39-year-old has been off-and-on the IL with dizzying frequency in 2019. When healthy, Hill has been characteristically effective–as evidenced by a 2.68 ERA/4.30 FIP through 11 starts–but the lefty has been sidelined since Sept 12 with a strained left MCL. That injury was sustained in his first start back after an elbow issue precluded him from appearing in three month’s worth of games. Now, however, comes word that Hill is again ready to retake the mound, as Gurnick hears that Hill will start Tuesday’s tilt at San Diego (link). Despite the injury issues, we heard early in the year that the hurler was interested in continuing his career beyond 2019–his final season under contract with Los Angeles.

 

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