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Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez

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The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…

  • Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
  • Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.

Rays Agree To Deal With Rich Hill

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9:22pm: Hill will earn $2.5MM on a one-year deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

8:32pm: The two sides have a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of Fansided tweets.

8:22pm: The Rays are progressing toward a deal with free-agent left-hander Rich Hill, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Hill will turn 41 in March, and though he was hardly outstanding during the first decade of his career, he has only gotten better with age. Dating back to his stunning renaissance in 2015, Hill – despite possessing 90 mph velocity – has logged a 2.93 ERA/3.57 SIERA with a quality strikeout percentage of 28.6 and and a better-than-average walk rate of 7.9 percent in 503 innings as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics, Dodgers and Twins. The only concern has been Hill’s durability, as various injuries have limited him and he hasn’t hit the 136-inning mark in a season since he revived his career. He threw 38 2/3 frames as a Twin during the truncated 2020 campaign, averaging fewer than five innings out of his eight starts.

Of course, if there’s any team unconcerned about a hurler going deep into games, it’s the Rays. They’re known to rely heavily on their bullpen, evidenced in part by their opener strategy, so Hill could be an ideal fit for the club. The Rays lost 2020 starters Blake Snell (trade) and Charlie Morton (free agency) earlier in the offseason after an AL-winning year, but the small-budget team is trying to put together a low-priced rotation with Hill, fellow offseason additions Chris Archer and Michael Wacha (and potentially Collin McHugh), as well as holdovers Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough.

Three Teams Pursuing Rich Hill

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There are at least three teams making serious pushes to land southpaw Rich Hill, according to a report from WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. The Rays, Brewers, and Mets are each in pursuit of the veteran hurler.

Hill is closing in on his 41st birthday, but still spun 38 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball last year over eight starts with the Twins. There’s little question he’s deserving of an important role on a big league pitching staff, even if it’s unreasonable to expect he’ll turn in a full starter’s workload over the entirety of a 162-game season.

While the results were excellent, Hill did show some worrying signs in Minnesota (with the obligatory short-sample alert). He managed only a 31:17 K/BB ratio, far off of the sparkling strikeout and walk numbers he had routinely sported in prior years with the Dodgers. Hill also shed a few ticks off his fastball — not that he has ever been reliant upon overwhelming velocity.

It’s not surprising to see the Rays and Brewers in the hunt for Hill. Both teams have moved away from traditional pitcher usage patterns in recent seasons and would have little trouble scheming up ways to maximize Hill’s unique capabilities. The Mets do not fit in quite the same manner, but could plug the ageless southpaw into the back of their rotation mix and plan to get him regular respite from the typical five-day pitching schedule.

One team is notably absent from the set of reported pursuers: the Red Sox. Bradford notes that the Boston organization has seemingly backed away from its initial interest after making other additions. That’s likely a bit of a disappointment for Hill, who resides in Massachusetts and has made clear that geographical location is one of his chief concerns (along with the ability to compete for a title). For what it’s worth, the Mets are obviously nearby and the Rays play frequently in the northeast.

Red Sox Interested In Sugano, Odorizzi, Hill

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After getting meager results from their rotation in 2020, the Red Sox continue to explore a wide range of options on the free agent market.  Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox have interest in Jake Odorizzi and former Boston hurler Rich Hill, while Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano (who was posted earlier this week) is also on the list of targets.

Between this trio and Boston’s previously-known interest in Corey Kluber, it’s clear the Red Sox are considering pretty much any and all options, ranging from injury reclamation projects like Kluber, familiar faces like Hill, x-factors like Sugano, or Odorizzi, who is arguably the best starter remaining on the market aside from Trevor Bauer and possibly Masahiro Tanaka.

MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents ranked Tanaka 10th and Odorizzi 11th, with Odorizzi’s track record serving as a bigger argument for a multi-year contract than his injury-marred 2020 season.  The righty was limited to only 13 2/3 innings last year, though none of Odorizzi’s injuries were particularly serious or cause for any long-term doubts about his ability to contribute in 2021 and beyond.

There has been enough interest in Odorizzi that he would likely be the most expensive option possible for the Red Sox, though it’s possible Sugano could cost more in pure dollars spending on the size of the posting fee his new team will have to pay the Yomiuri Giants.  The 31-year-old Sugano is moving to MLB after eight outstanding seasons with the Tokyo-based Giants that saw Sugano post a 2.32 ERA, 4.59 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 1362 innings.  The Padres and Blue Jays are two of the clubs who have been linked to Sugano, though it’s probably safe to assume several more teams will be in touch before his posting period ends on January 7.

Speier reports that there is mutual interest between Hill and the Sox, which isn’t surprising given that Hill was born in Boston and still lives in the area.  It would be Hill’s third stint with his hometown club, after pitching three seasons (but only 31 2/3 innings thanks to Tommy John surgery and other injuries) with the Red Sox from 2010-12, and then a return trip in 2015.  It was during the 2015 season that Hill famously enjoyed a career reawakening, posting a 1.55 ERA over four starts with Boston that served as a springboard for five largely successful (if still injury-shortened) seasons with the Athletics, Dodgers, and Twins.

Hill would be the least expensive of the trio, as he would likely only require a one-year deal as he enters his age-41 season.  For a Red Sox rotation that has a lot of durability questions, however, signing someone with “few guarantees about the frequency with which he could contribute” (as Speier puts it) might not be the best course of action.  Sugano naturally carries some risk given that it isn’t known how well he’ll adjust to Major League batters, and Odorizzi can’t be seen as a sure thing given his lack of results in 2020.

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill

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Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.

  • Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
  • That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.

Twins Activate Rich Hill, Outright Cory Gearrin

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The Twins have activated left-hander Rich Hill from the injured list, the team announced. They also outrighted reliever Cory Gearrin to their alternate site after he cleared waivers and optioned righty Zack Littell.

Hill, who will start the Twins’ game against the Brewers on Wednesday, missed roughly three weeks with shoulder fatigue. While injuries have been a consistent problem during Hill’s late-career renaissance, he has offered front-line numbers with several teams when he has been able to take the mound. The 40-year-old has made just one start this season for the Twins, who signed him during the offseason, but it was an effective one, as he threw five innings of scoreless, two-hit, two-walk ball in a win over the Cardinals. He’ll rejoin a Twins rotation that has gotten superb production from Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak, while Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi have come out of the gates slowly.

The well-traveled Gearrin, 34, signed with the Twins on a minors pact in the offseason. He threw two scoreless innings for the team Aug. 9 before it designated him for assignment.

Twins Place Rich Hill On Injured List

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The Twins have placed left-hander Rich Hill on the injured list because of shoulder fatigue, Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to report. Hill’s IL placement will be backdated, per manager Rocco Baldelli. The club has also added righty Juan Minaya to its 60-man player pool, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets.

Consistent IL placements have been an unfortunate part of the package with Hill, a well-traveled 40-year-old who, on a per-inning basis, has surprisingly been one of the game’s most effective pitchers since he revived his career in 2015. Hill’s most recent success, primarily with the Dodgers, prompted the Twins to hand him a $3MM guarantee last offseason. It looked good through one start this year, as Hill tossed five scoreless, two-hit innings in a win over the Cardinals last Wednesday. However, Hill was scratched from his scheduled start against Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Reigning AL Central Minnesota ia off to a tremendous 8-2 start this season, but it hasn’t come without a few key problems in its rotation. Before Hill went on the IL, fellow free-agent pickup Homer Bailey and 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi landed on the shelf with injuries. Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Randy Dobnak and Monday starter Lewis Thorpe are still around, but it’s unclear who will fill the last spot if the Twins need someone to step up.

Happ, Hill, McHugh Among Players Excluded From Vesting Clause Agreement

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6:39pm: Red Sox righty Collin McHugh is also excluded from the agreement, Martino tweets. McHugh, who’s still working back from the nonsurgical procedure he underwent on his pitching elbow over the winter, signed an incentive-laden deal with Boston in March. Back when McHugh inked the contract, it included $3.625MM in available incentives based on between 30 and 115 innings pitched; it also featured roster bonuses for 15 to 90 days on the team’s active roster.

1:02pm: It emerged yesterday that the league and union had agreed upon how to handle vesting clauses and certain bonuses in a highly modified 2020 season. But it seems the general agreement includes carve-outs for certain players.

Among those known to be excluded are Yankees lefty J.A. Happ and Twins southpaw Rich Hill, according to reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY.tv. In those cases — and, it seems, a few unidentified others — the team and player will have to reach modified agreements or submit cases to an arbitrator to decide how their contracts should be treated.

In Happ’s case, his original contract included a $17MM vesting/club option for the 2021 season. It would become guaranteed if he made 27 starts and/or threw 165 innings this year. As for Hill, there aren’t any options. But his deal included generous incentive pay for accumulating relatively small numbers of games started and/or innings pitched (maxing out at $9.5MM with 15 starts and/or 75 innings).

It’s still not fully clear just why certain players were excluded from the broader deal. A source tells Martino it relates to health situations at the start of the season, though as he notes that doesn’t quite align with Happ’s case.

Central Notes: Twins, Bryant, Mize, Reds

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Let’s check in on a few teams from the game’s Central divisions…

  • The Twins signed injured left-hander Rich Hill in December with the expectation he’d miss a large part of the season. That was before the coronavirus pandemic ran amok, though, and now the Twins might get a full season (if there is one) out of Hill. The 40-year-old, who’s still recovering from the primary revision surgery he underwent in November , told Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, “(I’ve) been able to make the most out of the situation so I’m right where I should be as far as rehab progression-wise, so if we do have a season, I should be ready to go when we kick off something of a spring training.” That means the Twins could get an entire season out of a hurler who has been one of the most effective starters in the majors on a per-inning basis since his out-of-nowhere breakout in 2015. Dating back to then, Hill has combined for a 2.91 ERA with 10.67 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 466 1/3 frames as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics and Dodgers.
  • Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2021 season. In theory, a shortened or canceled 2020 campaign could have a negative effect on his market if he does reach free agency, but agent Scott Boras doesn’t expect it to damage Bryant or any of the other star players who could be available then. “For the players who are the great players — because there’s always only a few great players — I don’t think it’s going to have anywhere near the impact,” Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, “because those great players are somebody you would sign for 10 years, and you can defer the cost. You just backload the contracts. You can do things with long-term contracts; you could wait for better times but still get the player for today.”
  • Righty Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, may be the best prospect in the Detroit organization. But with a minor league campaign unlikely to happen, Mize could miss out on further professional seasoning this year. So what’s the solution? Well, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com makes a case that the Tigers should just put him in their rotation this season. Doing so would burn a year of service time, and it’s unlikely Mize would help make the Tigers a playoff-caliber team even in a shortened season, but there’s no denying he is one of the most talented players in the organization. Mize spent the majority of last year in Double-A, where he pitched to a 3.20 ERA with 8.69 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings.
  • The Reds will start temporarily furloughing employees – less than 25 percent of them – on June 1, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Those individuals will continue to receive benefits while laid off, though.

How The Delayed Season Impacts The Twins

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All 30 big league clubs are waiting to see whether a 2020 season will be played at all, but assuming a season is able to take place in some capacity, the prolonged delay will impact some clubs more than others. We’ve already run through the Yankees, Angels, Phillies and Athletics in this regard.

Turning to the Twins, who’ll be looking to defend their first division crown since 2010, they’ll suddenly have the opportunity to get nearly a full season out of one of their most important pitching pickups of the winter: left-hander Rich Hill.

Rich Hill | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The 40-year-old Hill underwent “primary repair” surgery on his left ulnar collateral ligament over the winter and inked a one-year, $3MM deal with Minnesota (plus $9.5MM of available incentives), knowing that he’d miss the first few months of the season. Primary repair is a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that can be pursued depending on the extent of the tear and its location within the ligament; Hill’s injury met the requisite criteria, and he was targeting a June or July return to the mound. It’s now possible he’ll be ready to join the Twins’ rotation early in a truncated season — if not from the very outset.

Manager Rocco Baldelli gave an update on Hill’s status in a recent interview with Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, suggesting that Hill is rehabbing and throwing and has “done very well — about as well as you could ask for.” To this point, there’s no reason to think his initial rehab timetable needs adjustment.

Hill wasn’t the ace that many Twins fans hoped to see the front office add this winter, but on a per-inning basis he remains highly effective. The durability concerns with the veteran southpaw are very real even if his recovery from offseason surgery goes as planned, but there’s no denying how good Hill has been recently when able to take the mound. In 58 2/3 innings last season, the lefty pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 — despite pitching part of the season with the ligament damage that necessitated his surgery. Hill only managed 327 regular-season innings over the past three years, but he logged a 3.30 ERA with just under 11 punchouts per nine frames in that time and also chipped in 37 innings of 2.43 ERA ball in the playoffs.

The postponement of Opening Day not only gives Hill more time to get up to speed — it also should allow the Twins to more easily manage his innings. It’s likely that rosters will be expanded at least early on, which should give Baldelli some extra relievers if the club wants to limit Hill to three to five innings per outing to begin the season. One of the Twins’ previously projected fifth starter candidates — Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe or non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin — could potentially be paired with Hill in a tandem or piggyback type of arrangement.

Additional downtime will also allow the Twins to ensure that several key players are at full strength to begin the year. None of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Marwin Gonzalez was expected to open the 2020 campaign on the injured list, but each is recovering from surgery. Buxton went under the knife last September to repair a torn labrum and was only just about to get into Grapefruit League games when Spring Training was suspended. Baldelli has said Buxton would’ve been ready for Opening Day, but there shouldn’t be any doubt about his shoulder’s well-being now.

Polanco, meanwhile, underwent surgery to repair an ankle injury that dogged him throughout the 2019 season. He appeared fine at the plate, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 long balls, 40 doubles and seven triples, but it’s possible that the nagging ankle issue contributed to Polanco’s lackluster defensive ratings and his lack of stolen bases (just four). Gonzalez, meanwhile, underwent a debridement of the patellar tendon in his right knee over the winter and was a bit behind schedule in camp. He should be fully up to speed once play resumes.

There are also possible implications for suspended right-hander Michael Pineda, who still has 39 games remaining on a reduced 60-game ban issued late last year. That suspension will still be in effect if the 2020 season is able to be played, and there’s been no indication that it’d be shortened or prorated to reflect the reduction of games on this year’s schedule. If the season is canceled entirely, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has previously reported that drug suspension wouldn’t carry into the 2021 campaign. Pineda would seemingly be able to join the rotation from day one.

The hope in Minnesota is that by the end of whatever season we get, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Hill and Pineda will combine to make the bulk of the starts. With six starters, plus the trio of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe on hand as depth options (and perhaps Chacin as well), the Twins should be well-equipped to handle regular doubleheaders and fewer off-days in the accelerated regular-season schedule.

In a worst-case scenario that sees the season postponed entirely, the Twins could see holdovers Odorizzi, Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz and Trevor May all reach free agency. Meanwhile, Hill, Bailey, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila could depart without ever formally suiting up in a game that counts.

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