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Rich Hill

Rich Hill “Definitely” Plans To Play In 2022

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Rich Hill will turn 42 years old next March, but the veteran southpaw told reporters last night that he “definitely” plans to pitch next season (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). “The drive is still there and the ability is still there,” said Hill, who did not rule out a return to the Mets.

It’s hard to argue with the left-hander’s assessment. He’s not only wrapping up a 17th Major League season but is putting the finishing touches on a season that will see him shoulder his largest workload since way back in 2007. Hill has pitched in 32 games (31 starts) this season and racked up 158 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball. He’s fanned 22.3 percent of his opponents against an 8.3 percent walk rate.

Hill isn’t inducing whiffs as often as he did with the Dodgers a few years ago, but he’s still inducing weak contact at rates well north of the league average. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity and 34.8 percent hard-hit rate are both strong marks, and those numbers actually improved following a midseason trade from the Rays to the Mets (87.2 mph exit velo, 32.3 percent hard-hit rate).

Pitching into his age-42 season would add another chapter to Hill’s remarkable comeback journey. The left-hander pitched just 75 2/3 innings in the Majors from 2010-14 and had become something of a journeyman reliever before parlaying a strong stint in indie ball into a dominant four-start run with the Red Sox late in 2015. Those four starts and 29 innings prompted the Athletics to sign Hill to a one-year, $6MM contract, and he continued his sudden dominance with the A’s before being traded to the Dodgers in a deal that netted Oakland right-hander Frankie Montas.

Hill spent the 2017-19 seasons in Los Angeles after signing a three-year, $48MM contract to return — a number that would’ve appeared unfathomable just a couple years prior. Even when he required elbow surgery in the 2019-20 offseason, he still drew plenty of interest and inked an incentive-laden, one-year deal with the Twins. He split the 2021 season between Tampa Bay and Queens, and he’ll now look to come back for an 18th big league campaign.

Since undergoing elbow surgery, Hill has seen his fastball velocity dip but has nevertheless remained effective. He’s pitched 197 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2020 and logged a 3.69 ERA with a 22.2 percent strikeout rate, an 8.8 percent walk rate, a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate and 1.09 home runs per nine innings pitched. A team won’t sign Hill to be the ace of its staff, but he should have little difficulty finding another one-year deal to pitch in the middle of a rotation.

Roster Notes: Rays, Orioles, Reds

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The Rays announced a roster move today, optioning Taylor Walls to Triple-A and recalling right-hander Sean Poppen from Triple-A, per the team. After the recent Rich Hill trade, Poppen provides an extra arm right away for the Rays to lean on, while Walls may have been subject to a demotion when Manuel Margot returns from the injured list later this week anyhow, suggests Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).

The Rays have also added southpaw Ryan Sherriff to the taxi squad, per Topkin, presuming that Sherriff will soon take the roster spot of whoever on the roster gets used in today’s ballgame. Let’s check in on some other roster moves happening around the game right now…

  • The Orioles have selected the contract of Conner Greene from Triple-A, per the team. Greene takes the place of Tyler Wells, who was placed on the injured list yesterday, though he’s expected back shortly. Greene is a 26-year-old right-hander who has yet to make his big league debut.
  • The Reds have placed right-hander R.J. Alaniz on the 10-day injured list with a left calf strain, the team announced. Infielder Max Schrock has been recalled to take his roster spot. Alaniz, 30, made three appearances for the Reds, tossing 2 2/3 innings, allowing one run on a solo homer, walking three and striking out three.

Rays Trade Rich Hill To Mets

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The Mets, in dire need of some rotation help, have found some of the rotation depth they’ve been seeking. The team announced Friday that it has acquired lefty Rich Hill from the Rays in exchange for minor league catcher/infielder Matt Dyer and veteran right-hander Tommy Hunter (who is currently on the injured list). Right-hander Robert Stock, out with a hamstring strain, was transferred to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the Mets’ 40-man roster.

Rich Hill | Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The swap will come as a surprise to many, given the Rays’ place in the standings and last night’s acquisition of Nelson Cruz, but it serves as another reminder that in today’s game, many clubs can’t be simply boxed into strict “buyer” or “seller” categories.

Hill, 41, has pitched to a 3.87 ERA through 95 1/3 innings so far in 2021, but he’s also struggled rather considerably since mid-June. In his past seven starts, he’s tallied just 33 1/3 innings and yielded 20 runs on 34 hits and 16 walks. Seven of those hits have left the yard, and Hill’s 28 strikeouts (19.3 percent) in that time represent a pretty pronounced decline.

Overall, Hill is sitting on a 5.40 ERA and 5.25 SIERA since June 12. As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman observes (Twitter link), he’s seen his spin rates drop considerably in the aftermath of MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances. I’d add that it may not be coincidental that Hill began incorporating a changeup (ideally a low-spin offering) into his pitch mix in early June. The 41 changeups he’s thrown over his past eight starts are already the most he’s thrown in a season since 2009.

Despite his recent struggles, Hill gives the Mets a much-needed veteran arm to plug into the back of an ailing rotation — one with more upside and a much greater track record than recent options they’ve tried. New York has yet to receive an inning from Carlos Carrasco or Noah Syndergaard in 2021, and depth options like Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and Thomas Szapucki are all sidelined through season’s end. Ace Jacob deGrom hit the injured list recently due to a forearm issue, and fifth starter David Peterson is out with an oblique strain.

With all of those injuries piling up, the Mets have leaned heavily on righties Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, who’ve both exceeded expectations and pitched brilliantly so far in 2021. Young righty Tylor Megill has also fared well in his first five big league outings, but the Mets had a clear and pressing need to get some sort of stability into the rotation. Hill can provide that, and if he can return to his prior levels of production it could prove a difference-making move for the Mets.

From the Rays’ vantage point, it’s possible that Hill had simply fallen out of favor as one of the organization’s preferred rotation options. Tampa Bay has Ryan Yarbrough, Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Michael Wacha and Josh Fleming as alternatives on the big league roster, and there are several depth options behind them in Triple-A (including ballyhooed righty Shane Baz). It’s also eminently possible that the Rays will add another name of note to the rotation over the next week as they load up to chase the Red Sox in a competitive AL East title picture.

Hunter’s inclusion in the swap is seemingly as a financial counterweight to Hill. The New York Post’s Mike Puma recently indicated that it was doubtful Hunter, who has been out since May with a back strain, would be able to return in 2021. Hunter’s $2.25MM salary is a bit lighter than Hill’s $2.5MM salary, so the Rays are saving a fairly nominal $99K by agreeing to take on his contract in return.

The Rays do come away with an interesting prospect in the 23-year-old Dyer, whom the Mets selected in the fourth round of the shortened 2020 draft. Dyer has spent the season with the Mets’ Class-A affiliate and shown some concerning swing-and-miss tendencies (30.9 percent strikeout rate), but he’s also walked at a high clip and shown good power. He’s hitting .194/.329/.452 with seven homers, seven doubles, a pair of triples and six steals, and Dyer has spent time at catcher (65 innings), at first base (80 innings), at third base (66 innings) and in right field (18 innings) so far this season.

Baseball America’s scouting report on Dyer prior to last year’s draft suggested that he had a plus arm, average sped and the potential to be an average or better defender at as many as five positions, including catcher, which sounds like a player tailor-made for the Rays organization. This year’s strikeout concerns underscore that he’s far from a sure thing to hit enough to realize that potential, but he’s a somewhat interesting name to add to the system in return for a struggling pitcher on an expiring contract.

While it’s not a trade many would’ve expected to see come together today, there’s some sense to it for both sides. The Mets are plugging a hole in their rotation with a veteran arm who’ll practically be free from a financial standpoint, while the Rays are turning to younger options on the starting staff and acquiring a super-utility lottery ticket while dealing from a position of depth.

MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo first reported (via Twitter) that the two sides had engaged in discussions regarding Hill. Fansided’s Robert Murray reported that a deal was close. Jon Heyman of MLB Network first reported an agreement had been reached. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the other players involved in the deal (Twitter links).

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles

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To some, the Rays recent trade of Rich Hill to the Mets may have seemed incongruous with their plans for contention, but this is how the Rays do business: players play for the present, front office plays for the future. GM Erik Neander suggested it was simply a matter of coming up on having too many guys for the rotation, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). He didn’t shut down the idea of upgrading the rotation, however, suggesting they weren’t in love with Hill’s output projections for this season. For now, Luis Patino and Chris Archer will soon round out the rotation, pending another deal in the coming days. Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez was removed from his start in the second inning today with what’s being reported as “migraine symptoms,” per Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald and others (via Twitter). Rodriguez has a 5.19 ERA in 95 1/3 innings this season, though a 3.51 FIP and 21.9 percent strikeout-to-walk rate suggests his performance has been quite a bit better. He threw just 25 pitches in today’s outing.
  • The Yankees were also dealt a potential blow today as Gary Sanchez was removed from the game with back spasms. The Yankees are already without backup Kyle Higashioka, who will remain on the COVID-related injured list at least until next week, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News (via Twitter). Rob Brantly would be the stand-in, should Sanchez need further days off.
  • Orioles Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells was placed on the 10-day injured list today with right wrist tendonitis, per the team. His placement was backdated to July 20th, however, and the O’s don’t expect him to be out for longer than the minimum ten days, per The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (via Twitter).

Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez

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The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…

  • Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
  • Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.

Rays Agree To Deal With Rich Hill

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9:22pm: Hill will earn $2.5MM on a one-year deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

8:32pm: The two sides have a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of Fansided tweets.

8:22pm: The Rays are progressing toward a deal with free-agent left-hander Rich Hill, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Hill will turn 41 in March, and though he was hardly outstanding during the first decade of his career, he has only gotten better with age. Dating back to his stunning renaissance in 2015, Hill – despite possessing 90 mph velocity – has logged a 2.93 ERA/3.57 SIERA with a quality strikeout percentage of 28.6 and and a better-than-average walk rate of 7.9 percent in 503 innings as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics, Dodgers and Twins. The only concern has been Hill’s durability, as various injuries have limited him and he hasn’t hit the 136-inning mark in a season since he revived his career. He threw 38 2/3 frames as a Twin during the truncated 2020 campaign, averaging fewer than five innings out of his eight starts.

Of course, if there’s any team unconcerned about a hurler going deep into games, it’s the Rays. They’re known to rely heavily on their bullpen, evidenced in part by their opener strategy, so Hill could be an ideal fit for the club. The Rays lost 2020 starters Blake Snell (trade) and Charlie Morton (free agency) earlier in the offseason after an AL-winning year, but the small-budget team is trying to put together a low-priced rotation with Hill, fellow offseason additions Chris Archer and Michael Wacha (and potentially Collin McHugh), as well as holdovers Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough.

Three Teams Pursuing Rich Hill

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There are at least three teams making serious pushes to land southpaw Rich Hill, according to a report from WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. The Rays, Brewers, and Mets are each in pursuit of the veteran hurler.

Hill is closing in on his 41st birthday, but still spun 38 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball last year over eight starts with the Twins. There’s little question he’s deserving of an important role on a big league pitching staff, even if it’s unreasonable to expect he’ll turn in a full starter’s workload over the entirety of a 162-game season.

While the results were excellent, Hill did show some worrying signs in Minnesota (with the obligatory short-sample alert). He managed only a 31:17 K/BB ratio, far off of the sparkling strikeout and walk numbers he had routinely sported in prior years with the Dodgers. Hill also shed a few ticks off his fastball — not that he has ever been reliant upon overwhelming velocity.

It’s not surprising to see the Rays and Brewers in the hunt for Hill. Both teams have moved away from traditional pitcher usage patterns in recent seasons and would have little trouble scheming up ways to maximize Hill’s unique capabilities. The Mets do not fit in quite the same manner, but could plug the ageless southpaw into the back of their rotation mix and plan to get him regular respite from the typical five-day pitching schedule.

One team is notably absent from the set of reported pursuers: the Red Sox. Bradford notes that the Boston organization has seemingly backed away from its initial interest after making other additions. That’s likely a bit of a disappointment for Hill, who resides in Massachusetts and has made clear that geographical location is one of his chief concerns (along with the ability to compete for a title). For what it’s worth, the Mets are obviously nearby and the Rays play frequently in the northeast.

Red Sox Interested In Sugano, Odorizzi, Hill

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After getting meager results from their rotation in 2020, the Red Sox continue to explore a wide range of options on the free agent market.  Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that the Sox have interest in Jake Odorizzi and former Boston hurler Rich Hill, while Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano (who was posted earlier this week) is also on the list of targets.

Between this trio and Boston’s previously-known interest in Corey Kluber, it’s clear the Red Sox are considering pretty much any and all options, ranging from injury reclamation projects like Kluber, familiar faces like Hill, x-factors like Sugano, or Odorizzi, who is arguably the best starter remaining on the market aside from Trevor Bauer and possibly Masahiro Tanaka.

MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents ranked Tanaka 10th and Odorizzi 11th, with Odorizzi’s track record serving as a bigger argument for a multi-year contract than his injury-marred 2020 season.  The righty was limited to only 13 2/3 innings last year, though none of Odorizzi’s injuries were particularly serious or cause for any long-term doubts about his ability to contribute in 2021 and beyond.

There has been enough interest in Odorizzi that he would likely be the most expensive option possible for the Red Sox, though it’s possible Sugano could cost more in pure dollars spending on the size of the posting fee his new team will have to pay the Yomiuri Giants.  The 31-year-old Sugano is moving to MLB after eight outstanding seasons with the Tokyo-based Giants that saw Sugano post a 2.32 ERA, 4.59 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 1362 innings.  The Padres and Blue Jays are two of the clubs who have been linked to Sugano, though it’s probably safe to assume several more teams will be in touch before his posting period ends on January 7.

Speier reports that there is mutual interest between Hill and the Sox, which isn’t surprising given that Hill was born in Boston and still lives in the area.  It would be Hill’s third stint with his hometown club, after pitching three seasons (but only 31 2/3 innings thanks to Tommy John surgery and other injuries) with the Red Sox from 2010-12, and then a return trip in 2015.  It was during the 2015 season that Hill famously enjoyed a career reawakening, posting a 1.55 ERA over four starts with Boston that served as a springboard for five largely successful (if still injury-shortened) seasons with the Athletics, Dodgers, and Twins.

Hill would be the least expensive of the trio, as he would likely only require a one-year deal as he enters his age-41 season.  For a Red Sox rotation that has a lot of durability questions, however, signing someone with “few guarantees about the frequency with which he could contribute” (as Speier puts it) might not be the best course of action.  Sugano naturally carries some risk given that it isn’t known how well he’ll adjust to Major League batters, and Odorizzi can’t be seen as a sure thing given his lack of results in 2020.

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill

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Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.

  • Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
  • That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.

Twins Activate Rich Hill, Outright Cory Gearrin

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The Twins have activated left-hander Rich Hill from the injured list, the team announced. They also outrighted reliever Cory Gearrin to their alternate site after he cleared waivers and optioned righty Zack Littell.

Hill, who will start the Twins’ game against the Brewers on Wednesday, missed roughly three weeks with shoulder fatigue. While injuries have been a consistent problem during Hill’s late-career renaissance, he has offered front-line numbers with several teams when he has been able to take the mound. The 40-year-old has made just one start this season for the Twins, who signed him during the offseason, but it was an effective one, as he threw five innings of scoreless, two-hit, two-walk ball in a win over the Cardinals. He’ll rejoin a Twins rotation that has gotten superb production from Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak, while Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi have come out of the gates slowly.

The well-traveled Gearrin, 34, signed with the Twins on a minors pact in the offseason. He threw two scoreless innings for the team Aug. 9 before it designated him for assignment.

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