Latest On Phillies’ Free Agent Targets
The hiring of Dave Dombrowski as the Phillies’ new president of baseball operations brought renewed hope that the team could re-sign J.T. Realmuto, though the Phils still hadn’t made an official offer to Realmuto as of late December. “The Phillies continue to be engaged” in discussions with Realmuto and his representatives, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes, but the team is also doing the same with another of its high-profile free agents — shortstop Didi Gregorius.
There hasn’t been much in the way of news about Gregorius this offseason, despite a solid 2020 season that saw him hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 homers over 237 PA for Philadelphia. After accepting a one-year contract with the Phillies last winter in order to rebuild his value after an injury-shortened 2019 campaign, Gregorius’ seemingly successful plan ran into a pair of roadblocks — the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on teams’ spending habits, and a very deep shortstop market. Not only are such names as Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons still available on the open market, a number of prominent shortstops have been rumored to be trade chips, with two such players (Francisco Lindor to the Mets, Jose Iglesias to the Angels) addressing the shortstop needs of two would-be suitors for Gregorius and company.
The door therefore still seems open for a reunion between Gregorius and the Phillies, though it still remains to be seen how much the club is willing to spend this offseason. Salisbury raises the possibility that both Realmuto and Gregorius could be re-signed, which would run counter to the early-offseason narrative that the Phillies would be hampered by revenue losses, but it’s probably safe to assume that Dombrowski wouldn’t have taken the job without some assurance that he would be allowed to make some higher-tier additions.
It could be that Philadelphia is first waiting to see what happens with Realmuto before turning to Gregorius as a possible backup plan. The Phillies are technically set around the infield already, with Jean Segura slated to move back to his old shortstop position, Alec Bohm slated for third base and Scott Kingery tapped for regular second base duty. Signing Gregorius would allow for more roster flexibility, perhaps with Kingery moving back into a super-utility role, and it would better bolster the Phillies’ hitting depth if the DH is again part of National League lineups.
Beyond the everyday lineup, the Phillies are also still looking for more bullpen help in the wake of a disastrous performance from the 2020 relief corps. To this end, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) reports that the Phillies and Padres are interested in closer Alex Colome, joining such previously-known suitors as the Twins and Red Sox. The Astros and Nationals were also linked to Colome earlier this winter, but the White Sox are now likely out of the running after signing Liam Hendriks.
Colome would be yet another big offseason addition for the aggressive Padres, who look to be challengers for the NL pennant but are still lacking some help at the back of the bullpen with Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates both in free agency. A proven closer like Colome would only further strengthen an already solid San Diego bullpen, but the Phillies clearly have the more glaring need for relief help.
Thus far in the offseason, the Phillies have already added Jose Alvarado, Sam Coonrod, Ian Hamilton, and (on minors deals) Neftali Feliz and Michael Ynoa as they try to figure out the state of their 2021 relief picture. Colome would surely take over as the regular closer, moving Hector Neris and Alvarado into setup roles and reinforcing the late-game mix.
Padres’ GM Met With Tatis Last Week; No Offer Made Yet
Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.
Jan. 11: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Tatis may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.
Jan. 9: The Padres are in talks with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. about a massive contract extension, Dominican news outlet Pio Deportes reports (Twitter link). The deal would keep Tatis in San Diego into the next decade, as the extension is reportedly an 11-year pact worth $320MM. According to both Pio Deportes and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link), talks seem pretty advanced, as a source tells Kleinschmidt there is “ink on paper” but the deal still might not be finalized within the next week.
The $320MM figure would make Tatis’ extension the sixth-richest contract in baseball history, dropping teammate Manny Machado‘s ten-year/$300MM pact down into seventh on the all-time list. Between these two major deals, hefty contracts for Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and even the recent trades that brought Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to San Diego, Padres GM A.J. Preller and team ownership are again indicating that the team is prepared to spend at top-tier levels.
Hosmer’s deal runs through at least the 2025 season, Machado is signed through 2028 with an opt-out after the 2023 season, and the discussed terms of Tatis’ deal would lock him up through the 2031 campaign. It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out, as since Tatis only just turned 22 years old, he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group might want at least one crack at entering the market (or extracting more years and money in a renegotiation with the Padres) during Tatis’ prime years.
Tatis is controlled through the 2024 season, via one pre-arbitration year and three years of arbitration eligibility. The Padres famously placed Tatis on the roster for Opening Day 2019, eschewing a chance to keep him the minors long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control over his services — this decision immediately started Tatis’ service clock but gave the Padres more short-term opportunity in terms of getting a star product on the roster to help the big league team.
An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point, and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible. Despite battling hamstring and back problems in his rookie year, Tatis has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 27 steals (in 36 chances) over his 629 plate appearances in 2019-20. This past season, Tatis earned a Silver Slugger Award and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.
There is obvious risk in committing such money to a player who is still so young, and has played the equivalent of essentially only one full season. That said, it also makes sense for the Padres to take the leap on a player who showed such promise in the minors (much to the chagrin of the White Sox) and has already made a big impact in San Diego’s lineup.
It’s safe to assume that Tatis’ annual salaries throughout what would have been his arb years would be somewhat limited, in order to give the Padres more flexibility in terms of pure dollars while the money owed to Myers, Snell, and Drew Pomeranz gradually come off the books. If Tatis’ big annual salaries don’t kick in until 2025, that leaves only Machado, Hosmer, and possibly Ha-Seong Kim (at an $11MM mutual option) still remaining on the payroll.
The Competitive Balance Tax is the other interesting wrinkle, as the average annual value of Tatis’ deal (a little over $29.09MM) would be counted against the Padres’ tax bill for all 11 seasons, no matter what Tatis made in terms of actual dollars. Assuming Tatis’ extension begins in the 2021 season, San Diego would still have some flexibility under the $210MM tax threshold this year, as their current tax estimate is roughly $165.28MM. Padres ownership also might not mind exceeding the CBT threshold for a season or two if such an expenditure landed the club a “final piece of the puzzle” type of player for a World Series contender.
Timeline Of Twins’ Negotiation With Nelson Cruz
At the outset of the offseason, Nelson Cruz was said to be seeking a two-year deal, in theory from the Minnesota Twins. Not much has changed on that front, though as time wears on, it seems less and less likely the Twins will meet his demand. Coming off back-to-back silver slugger awards as the Twins’ designated hitter, it would seem a given that Minnesota would do whatever necessary to bring back Cruz, even as he enters his age-40 season. He’s a team leader, a fan favorite, and a standout citizen, evidenced by being the Twins’ Roberto Clemente Award nominee in 2020 and in winning the Marvin Miller Man Of The Year Award for being the player who has earned the “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community,” as explained the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III back in October.
Under a different context, the opportunity to add a 163 wRC+ hitter for two years at $14MM per season would be almost too good to believe. Under the current context, however, the Twins have yet to sign Cruz, nor even has there been much in the way of dialogue, per Neal’s newest piece for the Star Tribune. Neal consulted with multiple sources to provide a timeline of Cruz’s negotiation with the Twins so far this winter.
The Twins made a one-year offer during the opening weeks of free agency, then pulled it off the table after a couple of weeks. A second contract offer was made during the holidays that went nowhere as Cruz’s camp waited for word on the NL. There hasn’t been a lot of back-and-forth negotiating between the sides.
The assumption is there will be no designated hitter in the National League in 2021, which limits the field of potential Cruz suitors, but if the Twins wait long enough, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be more opportunities for Cruz. Interestingly, Neal names the Padres as one NL team that would be interested in Cruz were there to be a DH in the NL. Adding Cruz to any lineup ought to be a boon for that team, though putting him on a Padres roster with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado could very well make the Friars one of the more highly anticipated rosters MLB has seen in some time. Over the past two seasons, Cruz slashed .308/.394/.626 with a monstrous .318 ISO, 11 percent walk rate, 25.7 percent strikeout rate, 163 wRC+, and 6.2 fWAR over 735 plate appearances.
Free Agency Notes: McHugh, Tigers, Sugano, Red Sox
Free agent right-hander Collin McHugh will throw in front of interested teams on January 16, reports Jake Kaplan of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 33-year-old opted out of the 2020 season after failing to recuperate as hoped from a December 2019 elbow surgery. However, McHugh is again drawing interest from teams after recovering from that procedure, Kaplan notes. The former Astro had plenty of success from 2015-18, working in both a starting and relief role.
Some more notes on the open market:
- The Tigers are hoping to sign another free agent pitcher, general manager Al Avila told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive). Detroit already added former Marlins right-hander José Ureña on a one-year deal this offseason. Ureña joins fellow rebound hopefuls Matt Boyd and Michael Fulmer in a rotation mix that also includes Spencer Turnbull and a handful of very highly-regarded pitching prospects. That wouldn’t make the rotation a seeming area of need for the Tigers on paper. However, with a projected significant increase between 2020 and 2021 in the number of innings teams will need, the Tigers are looking to stockpile pitching depth. Avila noted the organization is considering adopting a six-man rotation at points next season to help shoulder heightened workloads.
- Star NPB pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano made the decision to return to the Yomiuri Giants yesterday, agreeing on a four-year, $40MM contract (with three opt-outs). Obviously, no major league team put forth an offer big enough to woo Sugano to MLB. At least a pair of clubs did put a formal proposal on the table, though. The Padres and Blue Jays each offered Sugano a contract before the right-hander made the decision to stay in his home country, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
- While the Red Sox were among the teams that liked Sugano, they are “uninterested” in offering any pitcher a four-year deal this winter, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. They are, however, willing to offer two-year or three-year terms to certain hurlers. As Speier writes, that dovetails nicely with the team’s ongoing Jake Odorizzi pursuit. Arguably the second-best free agent starter remaining on the market, Odorizzi is expected to land a three-year deal in the $36MM — $42MM range.
Open Market Notes: Kluber, Twins/Cruz, Nats, Odorizzi
Add the Pirates to the clubs planning to attend for Corey Kluber’s January 13th workout, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Nationals and Diamondbacks were previously mentioned as two among many planning to view Kluber in Florida. The Pirates don’t seem like the likeliest team to sign Kluber, though he could conceivably provide some veteran stability with the upside of becoming a mid-season trade chip. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber shows after two mostly lost seasons. Before he ran into health troubles, the 34-year-old reeled off an exceptional five-season run.
Here are a few other items of open-market chatter …
- Though there’s no evidence of recent progress, there’s still cause to remain bullish on the odds of a reunion between the Twins and slugger Nelson Cruz. The match, after all, has worked out well for both sides to date. In an appearance on the Locked On Twins podcast, Darren Wolfson of KSTP 5 indicated that mutual interest remains strong. But the club and the 40-year-old DH could also be eyeing alternatives. Wolfson suggests the Padres would have interest in Cruz if it turns out that the DH will remain in the National League. Remaining uncertainty in that regard has iced the market for lumbering sluggers. Depending upon how things shake out, per Wolfson, the Twins may have interest in a slate of options that includes Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and even Marcell Ozuna.
- Several of those players would also be of interest to the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It seems that Ozuna is likely to require too much space on the balance sheet. But Brantley and Schwarber, along with Joc Pederson, are each seen as possibilities to take up a post in the D.C. corner outfield. The Nats have an opening after allowing Adam Eaton to depart.
- Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.
Yankees To Acquire Greg Allen From Padres
The Yankees are set to acquire outfielder Greg Allen from the Padres. Allen was recently designated for assignment by San Diego. The Padres will receive left-handed reliever James Reeves in return, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
Allen, a San Diego native, was traded to the Padres last August as part of the Mike Clevinger deal. The speedy outfielder appeared in just one game for the Padres, drawing a pair of walks, stealing a base, and scoring a run. For his career, Allen holds a .239/.298/.343 line in 618 plate appearances across four years with the Indians and Padres.
Reeves is a 27-year-old southpaw drafted by the Yankees in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. He has a 2.30 ERA across five minor league seasons, functioning almost exclusively as a reliever. He logged a 1.79 ERA across 55 1/3 innings for Double-A Trenton in 2019 with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate, and 43 percent groundball rate.
Phil Hughes Announces Retirement
Phil Hughes officially announced his retirement from baseball today via Twitter. Hughes last pitched in the Majors in 2018 as a member of the San Diego Padres. While his final 16 appearances came out of the Padres bullpen, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2004 draft spent most of his 12-year career split between the Yankees and Twins.
In his own words, Hughes begins his announcement by saying, “While it’s been fairly apparent to most over these last couple years, I’d like to officially announce my retirement from baseball. Through many ups and downs over 12 years, I look back and am incredibly proud of what I was able to accomplish.”
Hughes took some time finding his way, and he ultimately leaves the game as an underrated hurler. After debuting in pinstripes during the 2007 season, he became linked in many minds to Joba Chamberlain as a pair of promising arms that didn’t pan out quite as intended for the Yankees. That said, Hughes has plenty to be proud of after carving out a successful big league career.
He was prematurely crowned a future ace for the Yankees, but he nevertheless developed as a significant contributor setting up games for Mariano Rivera during New York’s 2009 title run. Hughes posted a 3.03 ERA/3.22 FIP over 86 innings that season, including nine appearances in the postseason.
Hughes would settle in as a starter during a four-year run from 2012 to 2015. His best year came in 2014, his first with the Twins in which he logged 209 2/3 frames with a 3.52 ERA/2.65 FIP and an ML-leading 11.63 K/BB rate and a 7th-place Cy Young finish. Injuries and circumstances may have altered Hughes’ ultimate trajectory, but his emergence in Minnesota became a feel-good story for as long as his health allowed.
In total, the 34-year-ol Hughes retires with 11.2 bWAR, but 17.7 fWAR, indicating his ultimate work level might have been underappreciated at the time. He spent seven seasons with the Yankees and five with the Twins, with one All-Star appearances in 2010. Congrats to Hughes on a long and successful career.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window. January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.
A move to North America is not guaranteed, however. As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision. As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.
Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number. Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running. The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract. The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.
This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course. Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020. As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender. Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.
The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman. Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter. Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.
The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano. Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.
With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership. Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)
Who will sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
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Mets 22% (4,036)
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Giants 15% (2,768)
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Blue Jays 15% (2,710)
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Another MLB team 13% (2,425)
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Red Sox 12% (2,198)
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Nobody --- Sugano will remain in Japan 11% (2,030)
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Padres 8% (1,455)
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Rangers 4% (728)
Total votes: 18,350
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade
Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.
In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.
For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.
Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.
(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)
Grade the Darvish trade for the Cubs
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C 34% (8,506)
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D 25% (6,444)
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B 19% (4,728)
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F 16% (3,967)
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A 6% (1,634)
Total votes: 25,279
Grade the Darvish trade for the Padres
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A 65% (15,251)
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B 28% (6,560)
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C 5% (1,098)
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F 1% (351)
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D 1% (342)
Total votes: 23,602
Padres Designate Greg Allen
The Padres announced that they have designated outfielder Greg Allen for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for newly signed infielder Ha-Seong Kim, whose deal is official.
Allen joined the Padres as a secondary piece in the blockbuster August trade that also sent right-hander Mike Clevinger from Cleveland to San Diego, though the outfielder only played in one game with his new team. He ended the year as a .154/.281/.308 hitter with one home run in 32 plate appearances between the two clubs.
Last season’s 61 wRC+ was essentially par for the course for the 27-year-old Allen, who has batted .239/.298/.343 (69 wRC+) over 618 PA since he first played in the majors in 2017. Allen has lined up at all three outfield positions and combined for four Defensive Runs Saved, which is a plus; on the other hand, Allen’s offensive struggles and total lack of minor league options shouldn’t do him any favors as he reaches DFA limbo.