There may not be many who realize it, but the Padres’ Tommy Pham has been one of the most productive outfielders in baseball over the past few years. Compared to most other major league standouts, Pham came from humble draft beginnings as a 16th-round pick in 2006, and it took him several years to put up notable production in the minors. From his draft year through 2009, Pham’s OPS sat below .700, but his numbers trended upward thereafter, and he finally earned his first MLB look in 2014 with the Cardinals, who drafted him.
While Pham only played in six games and totaled a mere two plate appearances the year St. Louis promoted him, he represented a solid bench piece with the club from 2015-16, during which he slashed .247/.335/.458 (115 wRC+) in 356 PA. Any team would sign up for that type of offensive production from a reserve player, but Pham has demonstrated since then that he’s a bona fide starter – not a backup.
Pham’s breakout began in 2017, a season in which he batted .306/.411/.520 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 530 PA. Although Pham ended the year eighth in the majors in wRC+ (149) and 10th in fWAR (6.2), it proved to be his only full season as a starter in St. Louis.
Pham got off to an underwhelming start in 2018, when he owned a .730 OPS through July, and the Cardinals sent him and $500K in international bonus money to the Rays at the deadline in exchange for outfielder Justin Williams, left-hander Genesis Cabrera and right-hander Roel Ramirez. The Cardinals haven’t really profited from that swap at the MLB level, at least not yet, but it went swimmingly for the Rays. Pham was terrific in Tampa Bay from 2018-19, when he totaled 828 PA and led all their position players in fWAR (5.9), hitting .287/.385/.485 (136 wRC+) with 28 homers and 30 steals.
You’d think the Rays would have regarded Pham as a keeper after his first season-plus in their uniform, but considering he’s 32, on a $7.9MM salary this season and only controllable for one more year after that, the budget-conscious franchise flipped him over the winter. The Rays wound up sending Pham to the Padres in a December 2019 deal centering on him and the powerful Hunter Renfroe, a fellow outfielder. Pham is flat-out better than Renfroe, but the latter’s 28, on a $3.3MM salary this year and under wraps through 2023, so you can see his appeal from the Rays’ standpoint.
So what did the Padres get in Pham? A batter who has been far superior to most offensive players since he busted out in 2017. Going back to then, here’s where Pham ranks in a few important categories…
- fWAR: 18th (13.6; he’s tied with Freddie Freeman)
- wRC+: 26th (133; he’s between Joey Votto and Matt Olson)
- Walk percentage: 33rd (12.5; he’s a bit ahead of Cody Bellinger and Kris Bryant)
Not only can Pham hit, but he’s a respectable outfielder – someone who has lined up at all three spots in the grass during his career and accounted for nine Defensive Runs and a 6.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 4,000 innings. By all indications, the Padres have a gem on their hands in Pham. The question now is how much they’ll benefit from his presence in 2020, when the coronavirus will lead to a shortened campaign or perhaps no season at all.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Everyone knew it
Rays got robbed in this trade, and every other trade they made this season. What kind of idiots are running this team?!
Not this trade. Yeah they made 2 other bad moves but getting Xaiver Edwards to downgrade Pham to Renfroe is a major win.
Not sure it’s even a downgrade when Pham needs Tommy John surgery and then is a FA after 2021.
If Edwards power doesn’t develop he’s a utility/bench piece at best. It could but he’s definitely a light hitting infielder at this point. His iso at this point is very underwhelming.
Dude never strikes out and can steal bases with the best of them. So even if he is a singles hitter those singles will become doubles when he steals bases.
Billy Hamilton also walked a bit, struck out less than league average, and had lightning speed to steal bases….no power. Never became the super star the Reds hoped for.
Billy Hamilton has had one season with an OBP over .300 – that’s not really “walked a bit” material.
Hamilton walked at
5.6%, 6.2%, 7.8%, 7%, 8.3%, 9.1% from 2014-2019
Per fangraphs
10% is above average, 8% is average, 7% is below average, 5.5% is poor.
4 seasons Hamilton was below average or better, 3 seasons he was close to average or better. He wasn’t elite at walking but he wasn’t dreaful either.
Walked a bit accurately describes him.
Hamilton has a career .242/.297 BA/OBP. Edwards has a .328/.395. Sure that was done in the minors but he definitely projects to have a much better bat than Hamilton. A .280-.290 BA with a .350-.370 OBP and 30-40 SB and 0-HR is still extramely valuable.
@hOsEbEeLiOn give it up bro. Billy Hamilton was never an on-base guy. Edwards is.
Uh huh. Is that why Billy Hamilton is a career .280/.352/.377 hitter in the minors? Cause he “never” was an on base guy?
Weird. In 2012 he posted a walk rate of 12.8% in 82 games with the reds A+ team and 16.9% in 50 games with their AA team.
He also posted 8.9% in 2010 during rookie ball and 8.5% in 2011 during A ball.
Are you really comparing Hamilton’s mlb numbers to Edwards minor a ball numbers? You’re joking right?
Hamilton batted .278/.340/.360 in a ball and .323/.413/.439 in a+ ball.
In reality, Edwards, much like Hamilton in his minors career, thrives off BABIP. Hamilton and Edwards showed in the minors when their BABIP was above .350 (complete unsustainable btw) they did well. When their BABIP was below .330( more sustainable) they were average, at best, at the plate in the minors. That doesn’t project to be useful other than utility or platoon. BABIP driven careers rarely last.
Look at Greg Garcia who is a suitable comparison to Edwards offensively. Thats pretty much what you can expect from Edwards if he doesnt improve his power, and that’s the best case scenario. He can still have a decent career as a platoon guy or utility player.
I said “sure that was done in the minor leagues.” I guess if you are so hot to mock then you really don’t care what the other person ACTUALLY said, do you?
I guess guys with no power should not even bother to try for a career in baseball, should they? Like that POS Tony Gwynn, right? I mean, the guy NEVER ONCE hit 20-HR! In fact, he only had 5 years out of a 20 year career with even 10-HR! 4 years with only 1-HR each! One year with 3 and 3 years with 4. Pathetic right!? What’s that called, when a guy hits a ball and it doesn’t go over the fence and nobody catches it or throws the runner out? Right, a base hit! Worthless!
But I’m sure you are going to come back with some argument to try to show how you know so much better than all the professional scouts whose opinions went into making these top 100 prospect lists, right hOsEbEeLiOn?
I think I will stick with the pro scouts take. Thanks anyway!
And I know that you are going to want to go off that I would DARE to compare Xavier Edwards to Tony Gwynn. It was just an example to show that hitters don’t need power to be valuable.
What a joke.
I don’t see Xavier hitting more than .235 in the Bigs, no real OBP player may be good as a PR or sub now and then.
Your even mentioning Tony with a subpar IF is ludicrous, get real
Renfroe is a dime in a dozen player and Pham is star. getting a guy who may never get to the Majors thar isnt a super prospect for the downgrade is not worth it. also Cronenworth was the MVP of the International last year and is much better than your normal over-25 prospect.
Edward’s is a singles hitter, those never make it anymore
You forgot the /s
Rays save 4.6 million dollars this season. And get Renfroe for 2 years more than the Padres get Pham. Rays also acquire Xavier Edwards.
If Edwards doesn’t amount to anything, the Rays will be getting 4 years of Renfroe, and the Pads gets 2 years of Pham; Pham is only marginally better than Renfroe. The rays can either save that 4.6Mil or allocate it elsewhere and make up for that margin they lost out of Going from Pham to Renfroe. Let’s not forget, the rays can turn that 4.6 mil into a 2-3 WAR player fairly easily.
Rays did well.
If the padres stink it up Pham will be traded next offseason or next deadline.
You either don’t know what marginally means or you’re basing Hunter Renfroe’s value on one seasons defensive value.
Pham is 32, meaning in his decline years, and needs Tommy John surgery.
Hmmm I do know what it means. I question your definition of it though. And no I’m basing it on hitting and defense, because that’s where most of the value comes from. Pham is marginally better
Career-wise, Pham is 18% better offensively than Renfroe. I’d say that’s more than marginally.
agreed. I hate this trade.
Pham is a star typical Padre fan ludicrous comment
You show your lack of baseball knowledge, Renfroe is not even in the same league as Pham. Renfroe hit .219 in 2019 sure he hit more HR’s but those did not win the Padres games, his K’s and lack of OBP truly will hurt the Rays he hit below his playing weight, nice try but check on your stats before you quote something you know nothing about.
“Lack of baseball knowledge” – coming from the guy whose username refers to his IQ
Rays didn’t get robbed
They got renfore
Ya Renfroe a guy who K’s more than 75% of ML players, hit .219 and his OBP is terrible, tell me more.
10 homers and 35 RBI’s on road all of last year I’d a star? Stop. 9 games at Camden Yards that’s a joke. Pham was complaining about his free agent status because of pandemic he’s a star lol
Pham hit .276/.362/.467 on the road. You really shouldn’t look at his home and away home run and RBI totals. Those don’t really tell you the kind of player he is.
I don’t know why you’re suggesting that is bad. That’s accounts for about half of his HR and RBI totals last season, which is a pretty even split.
Glyeber Torres hit more homers just at Camden Yards then Punch and Judy Pham. He’s what 33 next year in last year of contract. Earlier complaining about his free agency during pandemic he’s a clown
If he ever plays for the Padres that is
why is he under the radar? everyone knows he is good.
Guys Pham burned some serious fan bridges with a ton of complaints at the beginning of last year. Can he be s as cancer in the locker room? We will see!
“locker room cancer” is such an overrated concern. many teams win with such players. you only hear about it when they dont though.
Cardinals and Rays both smart organizations traded him to Padres who have history of bad trades.
Snell being upset about the trade and calling X Edwards a “slapdick” prospect seems like confirmation that he wanted Pham in that TB clubhouse.
Same Snell that says it’s not worth playing he’s a tool also
Plays hard I’ll admit. Had some injury issues in the minors and some eye problems which might of kept him from his debut a year early.
Also I still remember the SI issue when he was in his last year in STL. Dropping F bombs and saying he was better than this player and that player. lol
If you think the Rays got robbed please delete your MLBTR account
“The latter’s 28” is super awkward
I went to or watched every Rays game last year. I was shocked when the trade was announced.But in hind site.
Pham made so many end of innning base running errors.
His eyesite was starting to bother him.
The turf was a bother to him and his defense.
He was a bit of a bad example to the young players.Lots of bitchin about attendance.
Renfroe a home run and doubles hitter. Drives in few runs. Hits below .240, and its trending down below .220. Strikes out 150+. Tremendous power, good arm, long term he is a potential pinch hitter. I don’t think he will stay an everyday player.
Edward’s is a singles hitter. I doubt he makes it unless he changes and starts to hit for more power. I dont expect it to happen.
Pham is a much better player than either.
Pham is 32. Have him on a fantasy team but don’t expect big things this year. Was super the last two. He’s at an age where he will regress. Dumb trade for the Padres.
Um, his Baseball Reference page says he’s 26, but close enough
Pham was 26 when he debuted
What’s new if it’s Preller making trade it’s dumb
Looks like the NL getting the DH is happening just in time for an OF with a partially torn UCL.
I actually like the trade for the Rays. Before the Allstar Break, Renfroe was mashing and was one of the best hitting outfielders in the game. I think before the break he was like 12th best and had and Wrc+ of 132. 27 of his homer is came in the first half of the season before he got hurt. After the foot problems his K rate went up like 10%. If he can get over the injury and show some semblance of his first half self (obviously not the same but similar) then pair that with his amazing defense the rays could have a good get. The cannon arms and defense of him and Kiermaier should be fun to watch
Pham was awesome for Tampa but Tampa really needed to add a power bat. If they can get Renfroe 550+ ABs in a full season, he is a legitimate 40 HR guy and he plays a decent OF too. SD might have won the trade in the short term, but Edwards is a potential lottery ticket who can add more power to his game (10-15 HRs year) by messing with launch angle a little bit and he has the potential to be one of the best base runners in all of baseball if he can continue his growth. Tampa rarely loses trades and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them eventually benefit from this deal.
If the Padres don’t win the WS in 2020 or 2021 and one of Renfroe or Edwards is at least average for TB the Rays win the trade.
If the Rays don’t win the WS in 2020 or 2021 and if Pham is at least average for SD, the Padres win the trade.
No cuz the Rays control Renfroe through 2023 and Edwards for 6 years (7 with some easy service time manipulation). Pham is GONE after 2021.
I would say your statement is totally off track, if the Padres even make the playoffs the trade is a major plus for the Padres. Pham is a hustler a throw back to the old player days, hard nose, competitive. Just the player the Padres clubhouse needs badly.
I don’t see Edwards even in baseball in six years nice try.
I don’t see you not in an institution in six years nice try.
I thought Eric Hosmer was supposed to be “Just the player the Padres clubhouse needs badly.”
Logical