Latest On Madison Bumgarner’s Market
TODAY, 1:58pm: The Cardinals could also have interest in Bumgarner, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.
WEDNESDAY, 7:52pm: The Reds are indeed among the teams with ongoing interest in Bumgarner, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Cincinnati has been aggressive thus far and has also been linked to free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, further backing reports that they’re willing to sign players who rejected a qualifying offer.
5:35pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests otherwise regarding the White Sox, writing that they’ve been zeroed in on Wheeler and have yet to even enter into negotiations with Bumgarner’s camp.
2:45pm: Zack Wheeler is off the board on a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with the Phillies, and it sounds like a decision from fellow free agent Madison Bumgarner might not be far behind. Even before word of Wheeler’s agreement broke, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted that some within the industry also expect Bumgarner to sign before the Winter Meetings begin next week.
At this point, the Twins and White Sox are among the “heaviest” suitors for the longtime Giants lefty, tweets Andy Martino of SNY, who adds that the Yankees are involved “to some degree.” Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that even after the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM deal earlier today, they’re still not completely out of the Bumgarner bidding. And ESPN’s Buster Olney somewhat speculatively links the Reds, who also pursued but missed out on Wheeler, to the Bumgarner market as well (Twitter link). Other clubs are surely involved as well.
It seems unlikely that the bidding for Bumgarner will escalate to the same heights as the Wheeler market, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier that the Braves jumped on Hamels in part due to concerns that Bumgarner’s price could approach $100MM.
Regardless of where he lands, there’s little doubt that Bumgarner is among the best arms on the market this winter. He’s not the clear-cut ace that he was earlier in his career when he was busy establishing himself as a postseason legend, but the 30-year-old Bumgarner still posted a 3.90 ERA and a matching FIP through 207 2/3 innings this past season. His average fastball velocity (91.4 mph) and strikeout rate (8.8 K/9, 24.1 percent) are both down a bit from peak levels, but Bumgarner still displayed impeccable command (1.9 BB/9) this past season and topped 30 starts for the first time since his injuring his shoulder in 2017’s dirt-bike debacle.
Bumgarner has made 55 starts across the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.66 ERA (110 ERA+, 3.94 FIP) while averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, meaning he’ll require some draft and possibly international bonus forfeitures (with exact compensation dependent on which team ultimately signs him). At this point, there’s little indication that the incumbent Giants are a serious player for Bumgarner, but they’re in position to recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next year’s draft (as they did when Will Smith signed with the Braves).
Giants To Hire Brian Bannister
The Giants are set to hire Red Sox vice president of pitching development away to join their own front office, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Bannister’s title with his new organization will be director of pitching, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe points out (via Twitter), the new position allows Bannister to live closer to his Bay Area home and spend additional time with his wife and two children.
Bannister himself confirmed that he’s moving on from the Sox, offering his gratitude to the organization (Twitter links):
Thank you to John Henry, Tom Werner, Sam Kennedy, and all the amazingly talented people in Baseball Ops for the opportunity to be a part of the Red Sox family for the last 5 years. It was a dream to call Fenway my office, and to be a very small part of a historic run in Boston. I want to specifically thank [chief baseball officer] Chaim Bloom and [general manager] Brian O’Halloran — they are incredible leaders and the Red Sox will be in good hands for a very long time. Thank you to the coaches and support staff, it was a privilege winning a World Series with you in 2018 and all the best in 2020.
Bannister, 39 in February, pitched parts of five Major League seasons from 2006-10 and joined the Red Sox as a pro scout after concluding his playing career. The Boston organization elevated him to director of pitching analysis and development in 2015 before naming him vice president of pitching development and assistant bullpen coach following the 2016 season. The Red Sox had announced after the 2019 season that they’d be going in a different direction with their pitching coach roles, though Bannister was still expected to remain in the organization prior to today’s news.
Braves Sign Cole Hamels
1:15pm: The Braves have formally announced the signing and (unlike most clubs) confirmed the terms of the contract in their press release. Their 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.
11:18am: The Braves have struck a one-year deal with lefty Cole Hamels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s said to include a $18MM guarantee for the John Boggs client.
Hamels can still get the job done as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Despite losing more than a full tick on his fastball from 2018-2019, he generated swings and misses at close to a twelve percent rate — much as he has done throughout his 14-year career. Since landing with the Cubs in the second half of the 2018 campaign, Hamels has spun 218 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 39 starts while maintaining 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
This match has long made sense — for all the reasons the team decided last year to ink fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel to a rental contract. MLBTR predicted Hamels to land in Atlanta in our ranking of the top fifty free agents.
Entering the winter, we believed Hamels could command a two-year deal at a $15MM AAV. But it emerged soon after the market opened that the veteran southpaw actually preferred a single-season mercenary arrangement. That’s just what he’ll get, and he’ll command a bit of a salary premium by foregoing any long-term security.
Hamels drew widespread interest over the past month. That continued into the month of December, with Bob Nightengale reporting (Twitter link) that a half-dozen organizations were still involved as of yesterday. The Phillies, White Sox, Rangers, and — surprisingly — the Giants were among the teams in the market until the end, per the report.
That Philadelphia link only further increases the NL East intrigue that we’re bound to see in 2020. While he is a few years removed from his tenure with the Phils, Hamels will always be known first and foremost as a long-time Phillies hurler who was one of the team’s key players during its last run of success.
Now, Hamels will try to help the Braves get over the hump. The Atlanta org has won the past two division crowns, but hasn’t yet managed to translate that success into the postseason. Hamels promises to step in for Keuchel as a durable veteran who has been there and done that plenty of times over a long and prosperous career.
This is the latest early strike for the Braves, who have already ticked through quite a few items on the checklist before the Winter Meetings even kick off. Hamels isn’t the top-of-the-rotation arm that might be preferred, but his addition doesn’t preclude further adds. For now, though, the focus will likely remain on re-signing or replacing third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Sign Tyler Anderson
DECEMBER 4: Anderson receives a $1.775MM base salary, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). There’s a roster bonus of $500K after 150 days of activity as well as $350K in incentives for throwing at least 130 innings.
DECEMBER 3: The Giants have signed lefty Tyler Anderson to a one-year, Major League contract, the team announced Tuesday evening. Anderson, who was claimed off waivers out of the Rockies organization, had been non-tendered yesterday. Terms of the contract weren’t disclosed, but it’s safe to assume that the GSE Worldwide client will take home less than the $2.625MM he’d been projected to earn in arbitration.
Anderson, 30 later this month, underwent knee surgery over the summer and was limited to 20 2/3 innings with the Rockies in 2019 as a result. The former first-round pick had an impressive debut season with the Rox in 2016 when he pitched 114 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with 7.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a hefty 50.9 percent ground-ball rate. But Anderson’s results took a turn for the worse in 2017-18, as his ground-ball rate deteriorated and he became increasingly homer prone. Anderson did rack up 176 innings and make 32 starts for Colorado as recently as 2018, and he has a minor league option remaining, making him a somewhat intriguing depth piece for the Giants in 2020.
Anderson isn’t likely to be guaranteed a job in the rotation next season, but there’s enough uncertainty on the Giants’ starting staff that he should have ample opportunity to vie for a spot this spring. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have starting spots locked down, but the remaining spots currently look to be up for grabs in a competition featuring Anderson, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Logan Webb, Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez. That mix would change, of course, if (or perhaps when) the Giants make some additions via free agency or the trade market.
If Anderson is able to return to form, the Giants will be able to control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.
D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos
12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.
10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.
Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.
While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)
Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/3/19
In the course of yesterday’s arbitration whirlwind, we covered quite a few players who reached agreements in advance of the non-tender deadline. But several others also struck deals last night (all projected salaries from MLBTR & contributor Matt Swartz) …
- Righty Anthony Bass has agreed with the Blue Jays at $1.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Recently plucked from the waiver wire, Bass had projected to earn $1.7MM. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he threw 48 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. It was his most extensive MLB action since 2015.
- Ben Gamel‘s deal with the Brewers includes a $1.4MM salary as well as a $2.55MM club option for the 2021 season, also per Nightengale (Twitter link). The option functions as an earning ceiling for the outfielder. Gamel had projected at $1.6MM, so he’ll come in under that amount while giving up some upside in the event of a breakout. But the priority is surely to gain another opportunity at playing time. Gamel has hovered in range of league-average with the bat over the past several years but slipped to a .248/.337/.373 slash in 356 plate appearances last year in Milwaukee.
- The Twins have agreed to a deal with righty Matt Wisler, the club announced. The salary isn’t yet known, but it’ll be guaranteed. Given that Wisler is out of options, he’s now rather clearly in line to take a spot in the Minnesota bullpen. The recent waiver claimee projected at $1.0MM. Anything in that range could be a bargain rate for a player that carried a sparkling 63:16 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 relief innings last year. Of course, Wisler was also tagged for 32 earned runs and ten homers, so he’ll have to figure out how to avoid the long ball.
- Infielder Donovan Solano has a $1.375MM deal with the Giants, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). That tops his $1.2MM projection, so obviously the club felt there was some risk that he’d be able to command a greater salary in the course of the arb process. Soon to turn 32 years of age, Solano produced one of the game’s least-expected breakouts in 2019. Long a light-hitting utilityman who struggled to establish himself fully in the bigs, Solano turned in 228 plate appearances of .330/.360/.456 hitting last year in San Francisco.
Teams Announce Final Non-Tenders
We’ve been tracking the day’s arbitration decisions in the run-up to tonight’s deadline, which has produced a bevy of last-minute calls. In addition to those already covered elsewhere (with all projected salary figures from MLBTR/Matt Swartz projections) …
- The Padres announced they have non-tendered Miguel Diaz and Pedro Avila. Neither hurler had yet been eligible for arbitration, so this amounts to no more than a roster cleanup. Avila had already been designated for assignment. Diaz, meanwhile, saw extensive action as a Rule V pick in 2017 but has only sporadically logged MLB time since.
- Relievers Javy Guerra and Koda Glover were non-tendered by the Nationals, per a club announcement. Guerra would have cost a projected $1.3MM. Glover announced earlier today that he would retire.
- The Red Sox non-tendered infielder Marco Hernandez and reliever Josh Osich, per a team announcement. Neither projected at big dollars — $700K and $1.0MM, respectively — but obviously the club felt it could put the roster spots to better use on other players.
- The Blue Jays have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Jason Adam, along with backstop Luke Maile. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter) and Scott Mitchell of TSN (on Twitter) were on the news. Law projected at $1.3MM, while Maile was in line for a $800K payday. Adam is still pre-arb eligible.
- The Giants announced today that they have non-tendered outfielder Joey Rickard ($1.1MM projection), southpaw Tyler Anderson ($2.625MM), and righty Rico Garcia (pre-arb). Both Anderson and Garcia were claimed from the division-rival Rockies after the end of the 2019 season.
- In addition to other moves earlier today, the Braves have non-tendered catcher John Ryan Murphy and outfielder Rafael Ortega. Each provided depth down the stretch in 2019 for the Atlanta organization. Murphy would’ve been owed a projected $1.2MM, while Ortega remains shy of arbitration eligibility.
- A host of players were non-tendered by the Royals, per a club announcement. Righty Jesse Hahn was cut loose along with infielders Humberto Arteaga, Cheslor Cuthbert and Erick Mejia. Among these players, Hahn (projected $900K) and Cuthbert ($1.8MM) have the most MLB experience. With these 40-man trimmings, the K.C. org should be able to place some claims and/or make Rule 5 selections in the coming weeks.
- Righties Ian Gibaut and Wei-Chieh Huang are each heading to free agency after being non-tendered by the Rangers. Neither is anywhere near the service time needed for arbitration eligibility, so this was just an opportune time for the Texas org to drop them from the MLB roster.
Giants Non-Tender Kevin Pillar
The Giants have non-tendered center fielder Kevin Pillar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll head onto the open market.
Set to reach his 31st birthday in January, Pillar was slated to earn a projected $9.7MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. That proved too rich for the San Francisco organization, which played Pillar regularly after picking him up early in the 2019 season from the Blue Jays.
Frankly, it’s not surprising to see the Giants pass at that price. Pillar is a gritty performer who still makes his share of highlight-reel plays and has good pop for an up-the-middle player. But advanced analysis suggests he has lost a step in the field and he continues to turn in cringeworthy on-base numbers.
Last season, Pillar slashed just .259/.287/.432 (85 wRC+). That marked his fourth consecutive season of offensive performance more than ten percent below league average. When Pillar was an elite defender in center, that perhaps would have sufficed, even at a relatively lofty price point. However, he’s rated as a mere average center fielder the past two season, combining for -7 defensive runs saved and +2 runs per Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast, meanwhile, pegged him as a 51st percentile outfielder in 2019. Combined with his lackluster bat, that defensive downturn proved too much for the Giants.
Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline
With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.
We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…
- The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
- Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
- Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.
Earlier Moves
- The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
- Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
- Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
- The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
- The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
- Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
- Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.
Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier
We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.
- The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
- Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
- The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians‘ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
- The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.