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Heyman On Valentine, Macha, Mariners

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MLB executives told Jon Heyman of SI.com that they’d be happy to ignore Felix Hernandez’s relatively low win total and hand him the Cy Young Award because of how well he has pitched this year. Here are the managerial rumblings that Heyman’s hearing:

  • Bobby Valentine would likely be a candidate to manage in the Bronx if Joe Girardi moves on after the season. That seems unlikely, however.
  • Ken Macha won’t likely return to manage the Brewers next year, but bench coach Willie Randolph doesn’t appear to be the favorite to replace Macha. Bob Melvin could be a candidate, as Heyman suggested last week.
  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is on "shaky ground” according to people around baseball. Zduriencik admitted to Heyman that he should have looked into Josh Lueke’s background more carefully before acquiring him from the Rangers.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Fusco, Thome, Cubs, Jeter

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On this date in 1998, former New York Highlander and St. Louis Brown Red Hoff passed away. At 107 years, four months, and nine days old, the left-handed pitcher had the longest life span of any player in Major League history, out-living his closest competition by more than five years. He pitched to a 2.49 ERA in 83 innings from 1911-1915, but never played after serving in World War I.

Here are a few interesting links from around the blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Odds & Ends: Hudson, Mets, Arroyo, Atkins

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As major league teams unveil their 2011 schedules, here are some news items….

  • As Daniel Hudson improves to 6-1 with a 1.67 ERA as a Diamondback tonight, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that Hudson "probably" could have been a Brewer had Milwaukee accepted a one-for-one offer from Chicago for Prince Fielder.  The problem at the time was that the Brewers projected Hudson as only a third or fourth starter and wanted more for their slugger.  Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on any missed trade, but if Hudson continues to pitch well in Arizona, it will put even more pressure on the Brewers to get a big return back if they do end up dealing Fielder.
  • An anonymous NL official tells Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jose Reyes could command "one really good prospect, one solid prospect, and one or two medium-range prospects" in a trade should the Mets put their shortstop on the market this winter.  This source seems in favor of a total rebuild for the Mets; he also thinks they should try to deal David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cites Bronson Arroyo's durability, consistent win totals and veteran presence as reasons why Cincinnati should pick up the right-hander's $11MM option for next season.
  • We've heard that the Rockies will look for a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Todd Helton next season, and ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill cites former Rockie Garrett Atkins as a possibility for the role.  Atkins was non-tendered by Colorado last winter and after signing a one-year contract with Baltimore, was released by the Orioles last July.
  • Interim Arizona GM Jerry Dipoto will interview for the full-time position tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
  • Any Boston fans tickled by A.J. Burnett's struggles this season might not want to crow too much, since Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski cites Burnett as comparable to the also-struggling John Lackey.
  • Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Red Sox might pursue Jim Thome as a cheaper free agent DH option rather than pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option.
  • Travis Buck's "organizational status is clearly at an all-time low" in Oakland, writes Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com.  Buck is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and could be non-tendered given the number of other promising outfielders in the Athletics' system.
  • If Jesus Montero can develop a solid catching glove to go along with his powerful bat, the Mariners may regret passing on New York's Montero-centered offer for Cliff Lee, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
  • Blogger El Lefty Malo praises the Giants' acquisition of Cody Ross and some other recent Brian Sabean moves.
  • Angels manager Mike Scioscia thinks the Halos just need a "tweaking" rather than an overhaul in the winter, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says upgrading the infield should be a top priority for the Cardinals in the offseason.

Odds & Ends: Drew, Blue Jays, Mariners, Reyes

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Links for Monday, 14 years after the Mariners sent David Ortiz to the Twins to complete the Dave Hollins trade. Precisely 346 home runs later, Big Papi is one of the most recognizable players in the game…

  • The Red Sox will probably not have the chance to void J.D. Drew’s deal, as Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains. The Red Sox could be able to sidestep the 2011 portion of the contract depending on injuries, but Drew seems healthy.
  • The D'Backs will interview Angels scouting director Eddie Bane for their GM opening, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
  • The Blue Jays named Jay Sartori assistant GM. The 31-year-old was previously the director of baseball operations for the Nationals and worked in MLB’s labor relations department, advising teams on salary arbitration, among other things.
  • The Mariners fired pro scouting director Carmen Fusco, according to KING 5 Sports. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse confirms the report (on Twitter) and suggests it's a warning shot to GM Jack Zduriencik. The Mariners front office is under scrutiny after trading for Josh Lueke. 
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that his team “can't throw $55MM at somebody just because it makes [everyone] feel better.” Instead, the team has to be sure the players they pursue fit the team’s needs.
  • Jose Reyes told Newsday's Ken Davidoff that he wants to stay in New York. The Mets can retain their shortstop for $11MM next year or buy him out for $500K.

Odds & Ends: Sandberg, Werth, Mets, Drabek, Dunn

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Links for Sunday, as Chris Volstad goes for his fifth win vs. the Nationals this season….

Olney On Johnson, La Russa, D’Backs, Mets

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Here are the latest notes from ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider-only link)….

  • The Diamondbacks "fully intend" to bring back Kelly Johnson next season. The 28-year-old will be entering his final arbitration year, and should earn a significant raise on this year's $2.35MM salary, but the D'Backs don't have plans to move him this winter.
  • Some "early speculation" around baseball suggests that if Tony La Russa doesn't return to St. Louis next year, Seattle could be a potential destination for him.
  • The D'Backs are considering installing a humidor at their Triple-A park in Reno, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Olney supports the idea, noting that it should help the development of Arizona's young pitchers, who would be less reluctant to pitch to contact.
  • Olney also agrees with Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who argues that the Mets should consider trading some of their young talent if they think it could improve the team.

Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp

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Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….

  • One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
  • While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
  • Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
  • Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
  • Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.

Non-Tender Candidate: Jose Lopez

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Heading into this season, the 2011 option that the Mariners held for Jose Lopez seemed likely to be exercised. A $5MM price tag for a 26-year-old second baseman coming off a 25-homer season looked like a bargain.

With the season now winding down, however, the Mariners' decision doesn't look quite so obvious. Although he has provided the team better defense at third base than he did last year at second (according to UZR), Lopez's offensive production has fallen off a cliff. After hitting .272/.303/.463 in 2009, the infielder has seen his 2010 slash line slip to .240/.270/.331.

Lopez's down year means that the Mariners must now make a series of decisions this winter regarding his future. First, they'll have to decide if this season was an aberration for Lopez or whether they may have reason to expect more of the same next year. The 26-year-old was never adept at getting on base, but generally made up for it with his power stroke. With only seven home runs in 529 plate appearances this year, he's no longer doing that. Will he be able to get his slugging percentage back up to .450+ in 2011?

If the offensively challenged M's decide they'd like to have Lopez around next spring, they still have to determine whether to pick up or decline his option. Considering Lopez is making $2.75MM this year and his option is worth $5MM ($250K buyout), Seattle could elect to turn down the option and instead tender him a contract in his final arbitration-eligible season. Due to Lopez's struggles, whatever raise he would earn in arbitration should still see him earning less than the $4.75MM it would cost the team to exercise the option.

On the other hand, the Mariners could decide they don't have interest in retaining Lopez and his .298 career OBP at all, declining his option and then non-tendering him. What do you expect the Mariners to do? Click here to vote on their decision and click here to view the results.

Rosenthal’s Full Count: Managerial Searches

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Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports has his newest Full Count Video up, focusing this week on managerial searches around the Majors. Let's dive in:

  • The Braves may pursue their top candidate — believed to be recently fired Marlins skipper Fredi Gonzalez — prior to the end of Bobby Cox's tenure. If the Braves make a deep playoff run, they may look to lock down Gonzalez before other teams, such as the Cubs, can get their hands on him.
  • The Marlins want their next manager to have a "more dynamic personality" than Gonzalez. Rosenthal names Bobby Valentine, who says he doesn't know what happened previously with Florida or what will happen in the future, Jim Fregosi, Wally Backman, and Larry Bowa as candidates.
  • Mets general manager Omar Minaya is telling friends that he knows his time is running out. The Mets are likely to move Minaya to a scouting role and promote assistant GM John Ricco. However, if they go outside the organization, some names to remember are former Rangers and Indians GM John Hart, and Dan Jennings, a longstanding Marlins executive.
  • There have been rumblings of Hart taking over the job in Baltimore as well, but there's no indication that Andy MacPhail is on his way out.
  • Rosenthal quotes an MLB executive as saying Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is "under siege" in Seattle, given that a Seattle Times report this week claimed Zduriencik knew more about Josh Lueke's criminal record than he let on before they acquired him in the trade for Cliff Lee. Rosenthal says that it's unlikely the Mariners act so quickly in dismissing Zduriencik, but if they were to do so, that Jennings, a former Mariners scout, and former Padres GM Kevin Towers could be fits.

The Mariners’ 2011 Rotation

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Felix Hernandez may be the best pitcher in baseball, but you won't mistake any other Mariners starters for aces. Next year, some combination of current Seattle starters, prospects and free agent additions will likely follow Hernandez in the rotation. Here are the specifics.

We can safely assume that Jason Vargas and Doug Fister have earned tentative spots in next year's rotation. Vargas (3.55 ERA) and Fister (3.85 ERA) have been pleasant surprises in Seattle this year and will likely be back in the 2011 rotation.

Luke French and David Pauley have each started a handful of games for the M's this year, although it would be a surprise to see the Mariners hand either pitcher a rotation spot uncontested. French, who turns 25 later in the month, has a 4.13 ERA, but his strikeout rate (3.8 K/9), FIP (4.65) and xFIP (5.52) suggest his ERA is likely to rise. Pauley has a 51% ground ball rate, but he doesn't strike anyone out either (4.9 K/9). In fact, many Mariners starters have low strikeout rates; French, Pauley, Vargas and Fister all strike out 5.6 batters per nine or less.

The Mariners could turn to minor league right-hander Michael Pineda if they're looking to add another power arm to the rotation. The 21-year-old entered 2010 as the seventh-best prospect in the organization, according to Baseball America, and he has since had a tremendous season. Pineda posted a 3.36 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in the upper minors and the Mariners will presumably give him every opportunity to win a rotation job next spring.

Mauricio Robles and Blake Beavan have pitched well since joining the Mariners in recent mid-summer trades (the Jarrod Washburn and Cliff Lee deals). Robles, 21, has struck out more than a batter per inning in the upper minors (9.9 K/9), but has major command issues (4.7 BB/9). Baseball America suggested before the season that he could be a back-of-the-rotation starter, but Robles' future could just as easily be in the 'pen. Beavan, a 21-year-old right-hander, has flashed excellent command in the upper minors (1.1 BB/9), but like so many current Mariners, doesn't strike many opponents out (5.4 K/9). 

Ryan Rowland-Smith will go to arbitration for the first time this winter, but with a 6.96 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, Rowland-Smith won't have much of an arbitration case if the M's tender him a contract. Seattle could bring the left-hander back (probably for less than $1MM) and add him to the bullpen.

The Mariners will presumably decline the options for Ian Snell ($6.75MM option, likely non-tender) and Erik Bedard ($8MM mutual option, $250K buyout). It wouldn't be a surprise to see the team sign a free agent starter, though. Hernandez is a proven innings eater, but Vargas, Fister, Pineda, French and Pauley are not sure things, so the team may well be interested in signing a veteran starter to a short-term deal this offseason.

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