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Rosenthal On Slugger Market

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Yesterday’s Ken Rosenthal article does a great job breaking down the market for sluggers this summer.  As usual there are some big names for the taking, and as usual many of them come with hefty salaries or other flaws like injury history or Scott Boras.

A couple of AL West teams, the A’s and Angels, have been particularly powerless this year (both slugging less than .395).  The Twins and White Sox could use some pop too.  Over on the NL side, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and D’Backs could look to add a power bat.  One of the three NL West teams mentioned could pull away with a major addition.

The most intriguing name in Rosenthal’s article is Sammy Sosa.  He is having a respectable resurgence so far at .268/.331/.512.  While it would be fun to see him back in the NL, his right field defense could prohibit it.  But come on – how funny would it be to see Sosa don Cardinal red?  Another interesting subplot thrown out by Rosenthal would be Ken Griffey Jr. back to Seattle, something that seems to come up every year if Junior is healthy.

Mariners Acquire Jason Davis

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The Mariners acquired 27 year-old pitcher Jason Davis today from the Indians for a player to be named later.  As I mentioned in a previous post, Davis is a healthy, cheap pitcher with good control and groundball tendencies.  Unless something valuable was given up, this looks like a nice little move for Bill Bavasi.

I have to be honest, I was hoping to see Davis end up with an NL team short on starting pitching (I picked him up in my AL-only league based on this speculation).  He wants to return to starting, but that would probably only work in the weaker league.  For the Ms, Davis will settle into the bullpen and probably pitch around the sixth inning.

Click here to read U.S.S. Mariner’s take on the acquisition.

Cards Interested In Weaver?

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According to Viva El Birdos, Walt Jocketty called Bill Bavasi yesterday, willing to take Jeff Weaver off the Ms’ hands for salary relief.  Yahoo’s Tim Brown believes the Cards would only have to pick up about $2MM of Weaver’s $8MM salary in a deal.  However, Weaver later landed on the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  Weaver had made six starts for the Mariners, losing all of them and allowing at least seven hits in each.

Previous speculation had involved the Mariners releasing Weaver.  The Cardinals offered Weaver $6MM over two years plus incentives, and the Pirates were also interested last winter.

Speaking of Viva El Birdos, Larry has a great idea to "evoke Josh Hancock’s memory and his tragic mistake," an idea far better than banning alcohol in clubhouses.  Check it out.

Mets Sign Brian Lawrence

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UPDATE: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post spoke to Lawrence’s agent, and he’s signed with the Mets.  Omar is just stockpiling arms.

Is it just me, or has there been a ton of interest in Brian Lawrence, dating back to this offseason?  He was admittedly a decent innings eater for the Padres for four years, but he missed all of ’06 and couldn’t crack the Rockies’ rotation.

Nonetheless, the Tigers have offered Lawrence a Triple A contract.  I suppose there’s nothing to lose here except a million bucks or so.  The Tigers have received excellent work from their front three starters, but are rightfully concerned about Chad Durbin and Mike Maroth eating up 40% of the starts until Kenny Rogers returns.

UPDATE: The Detroit Free Press says Lawrence likely won’t sign with the Tigesrs.

The Baltimore Sun says Lawrence’s name has come up within the Orioles’ front office; they’re currently running with both Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Burres in the rotation.  That was not the plan.  Lawrence might not be any better than those two, but it makes sense to stockpile some arms when Steve Trachsel is your third starter.

UPDATE: According to the Washington Post, the O’s contacted Lawrence’s agent on Saturday. 

Also, the Denver Post lists the Padres, Mets, and Mariners as other possible suitors.  Perhaps we can add the Cardinals to that list in the wake of the news about Chris Carpenter’s surgery.

Mariners To Release Jeff Weaver?

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According to John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:

"Speculation is mounting that Seattle is ready to swallow hard and release right-hander Jeff Weaver after his going 0-5 with a 15.35 ERA after five starts."

The handiwork of Scott Boras, an inflated pitching market, and playoff heroics earned Weaver the same one-year, $8.325MM deal he got from the Angels the previous offseason.  At when the Angels signed him, he was coming off a solid 14 win season.  The Ms signed him after he posted a 5.76 ERA in 31 starts.

I’d be surprised to see the Ms release Weaver.  Couldn’t they pay $6MM of his salary and virtually give him away to some NL team?  Even that would be better than releasing him.  Maybe the Padres would take a chance on him if the salary risk was minimal.

Tim Brown’s Latest

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I hadn’t really noticed the MLB Experts Blog from Tim Brown and Jeff Passan until recently.  Yahoo’s main baseball guys have some quality rumors, and I’ve been missing out.  Let’s catch up by digging through some recent posts:

Mariners Extend Jose Lopez

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According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Mariners have agreed to a four-year contract with second baseman Jose Lopez.  Additionally the team has an option for 2011.

Lopez would’ve reached arbitration after this season had he not signed a multiyear pact.  I’m trying to think of a second baseman who signed a similar deal at this stage in his career, but I’m coming up empty.  Ian Kinsler and Josh Barfield might be in line for one after this season.

Lopez’s first half work (.280, 9 HR, 20 doubles, 48 runs, 58 RBIs) earned him an All-Star berth last year.  His power disappeared after the break, however.  The problem may be Mariner coaches pushing him to hit the ball the other way.  Lopez slugged .505 a couple of times at Triple A, so the potential is there. 

PECOTA likens Lopez to Bill Mazeroski, and also has Brooks Robinson, George Brett, and Ryne Sandberg among his top ten comparables.  Lopez could certainly blossom into a star; he’s only 23.

Click here to read U.S.S. Mariner’s take on the extension.

The next task for Bill Bavasi might be to lock up Felix Hernandez through his arbitration years.

Ichiro To Explore Free Agency?

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According to a source of Ken Davidoff of Newsday, Ichiro Suzuki will explore free agency this winter.  He will be "selective," which seems to rule out lousy non-Mariner clubs.  The source said that Ichiro would’ve signed with the Ms last winter had they made a solid offer.  They’ve yet to do so.

As Davidoff mentions, Ichiro is one of the Big Three center fielders who may be available after the season.  The other two are Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.  How do they compare?

Their ages for the 2008 season: Jones will be 31, Hunter 32, and Ichiro 34.  Looking at offense, any team would clearly prefer Jones.  He should remain a force into the forseeable future, posting .350 OBPs and .500+ SLGs.  While more reliant on batting average than walks, Ichiro can match that OBP.  Of course, he won’t slug much over .400.  Hunter brings a lower OBP but more power than Ichiro, and probably has an edge offensively.

Most fielding experts would place Jones well above Hunter in terms of defense, but it’s unclear where to rank Ichiro at this point.  I’m sure any team considering a long-term offer to Ichiro is scouting his center field defense carefully and applying advanced grading systems.

Ichiro has the biggest fan appeal, though Jones may be a draw in his own right.  In terms of simply the most desirable player over the next four or five seasons, I rank them Jones, Hunter, and Ichiro.  I know power isn’t Ichiro’s game and all that, but he still needs to be compared to Jones and Hunter in that regard.  We haven’t seen many signs of it, but it’s possible Hunter adds some more walks to his game as he ages.  We’ve seen that with Jones.

The second tier contains Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, and Eric Byrnes.  Cameron is the best of those despite being the oldest.  However, he may be off the market within a couple of weeks.  Click here to take a look at the rest of the free agent CFs.   

Felix 1, Daisuke 0

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Daisuke Matsuzaka received all the hype from ESPN entering tonight’s game.  After all, it was his Fenway debut.  He tossed a solid seven innings, allowing three runs to the Mariners.  He retired Ichiro every time, even striking him out once.  Matsuzaka also threw one high and tight to Ichiro, and it wasn’t an accident.  Nor was his HBP of Jose Guillen, in my opinion.  Kenji Johjima, who’s had plenty of ABs against Matsuzaka, smacked a couple of doubles for the Mariners.

But the big story was 21 year-old Felix Hernandez, who carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning.  I was hoping he’d quiet Boston down, and it was incredible to watch him carve up their lineup in "radiant HD."  Before the game, I couldn’t resist the +162 Bodog was giving for a bet on Felix.  Something tells me they won’t set the line there again for him, no matter who he’s facing.  (Some of you may remember my now-defunct website DailyBaseballPicks.com.  Turns out I had $39 sitting around in my Bodog account from that little experiment).

ESPN’s announcers at least avoided the term "no-hitter" for most of the game, although they just said "screw it" around the 7th inning and said it a few times.  Not cool, guys.  Still, I must say I enjoy the pitching insight added by Orel Hershiser.  ESPN’s gun was blatantly at least 3 mph fast – Joel Pineiro wasn’t throwing 94 – but Felix was obviously dealing.  The guy’s sliders and changeups are on par with most pitchers’ fastballs.  Barely anything left the infield or the ground against him, though Jose Lopez lended some excellent glovework at second base.

After his one-hitter on the big stage tonight, we can safely say Felix Hernandez has arrived.  You have to wonder – if Felix pitches to his 90th percentile PECOTA – a 2.74 ERA – and does it for 215 innings, can the Mariners ride that to the playoffs?  In the King, they have one of the most valuable commodities in the game.

Mariners Acquire Jason Ellison

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The Mariners and Giants made a small swap today.  The Giants sent 29 year-old outfielder Jason Ellison to Seattle for 24 year-old southpaw starter Travis Blackley.

Ellison has been a Giants lifer, playing all three outfield spots.  He’s been a starter, platoon-mate, fourth outfielder, fifth outfielder…you name it.  He’s seen a lot of Triple A pitching, and was able to rock it to a .406/.452/.536 tune in 192 ABs last year.  He may be able to earn himself a starting job for 2008.

Blackley is a soft-tossing lefty who relies on his changeup.  He missed all of ’05 after labrum surgery.  He could be a fifth starter option in San Francisco this summer.

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