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Marlins, Mariners Still Scouting Benitez

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To hear Armando Benitez tell it, the Giants would regret trading him.  That’s probably true, but it speaks more to the sorry state of their bullpen than his abilities.

According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, the Marlins and Mariners scouted his performance yesterday.  Baggarly mentions other previously interested clubs: the Reds and Red Sox.  I imagine the Sox will back off now, assuming they were interested in the first place.

As far as Seattle’s needs, reports are positive on J.J. Putz.  Back when we assumed he was healthy, he was a bit undervalued in fantasy baseball.  Now with an elbow scare, I think he can be an absolute bargain if he drops to the 10-12th round.

The Marlins have internal options comparable to Benitez in skill, if not track record.  The Giants will probably hang on to their closer unless a viable replacement emerges.

Latest On Armando Benitez

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Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News has a good article up discussing the Giants’ quandary with reliever Armando Benitez. 

On one hand, Benitez’s value may never be higher now that he’s healthy and throwing well in spring.  Giants fans dislike Benitez, and ownership will take a ton of flak if he blows several saves.

On the other hand, his salary is not a big issue for the Giants, their bullpen is a huge question mark, he seems healthy, and Benitez has his teammates’ respect in the clubhouse.  The article mentions a story where Benitez took all the September call-ups out to lunch and bought them two suits apiece, spending maybe $20,000 on the rookies.

I say the Giants should keep him.  He’s not a great closer, but this team can’t spare relievers.  Brian Wilson closing would be a mess and would anger the fans just as much as Benitez.  Speaking of which, unless it’s going to hurt attendance somehow, the fans really shouldn’t be a factor in a player personnel decision.

And what is the return going to be?  Maybe a very un-needed Ben Broussard, or perhaps a questionable minor leaguer?  Larry LaRue reports that the Mariners are following Benitez closely and would like him back.  Reports on J.J. Putz have been positive but they could use some insurance.   

Marlins, Mariners Interested In Benitez

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This morning, Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel mentioned that the Marlins had two scouts on hand for Armando Benitez’s Tuesday night appearance.  The Fish would’ve sent scouts to his first appearance but the Giants didn’t give them a heads up.

Berardino talked to a scout who had Benitez at 92-94 mph and looking loose.  Berardino speculates that the Marlins would only need to pay about a million of Benitez’s $7.6MM salary.  Are the Giants that desperate to get rid of him despite their questionable bullpen?

Then John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer mentioned today that the Mariners also had two scouts at the game.  Benitez would be used to set up J.J. Putz.  The Mariners are said to find Jeremy Reed and Ben Broussard expendable.  For Reed, I think the Giants should make the deal.  Hickey mentioned that 40 scouts were at the game because it was the only one in town.  So we could probably connect Benitez to most clubs at this point. 

Maybe the three clubs can work something out where Reed ends up a Marlin?

UPDATE: According to the Boston Herald, the Red Sox have never talked to the Giants about Benitez.

UPDATE 2: The Mariners are out on Benitez.  This is like the Juan Gonzalez denials or something.  John Hickey says the Giants won’t even swallow half of Benitez’s salary, which contradicts other reports that suggested they’d eat over 85% of it. 

2007 Seattle Mariners

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Obviously I’ve fallen a bit behind on these team outlooks, but I’ll keep them going even as they extend into the season.  Today we have the Mariners.

Bill Bavasi’s contract obligations:

C – Kenji Johjima – $5.2MM + $0.33MM signing bonus = $5.53MM + incentives
C – Rene Rivera – $0.38MM
1B – Richie Sexson – $14MM + 1.5MM signing bonus = 15.5MM
2B – Jose Lopez – $0.38MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $0.4MM + $0.3275MM signing bonus = $0.7275MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $11.5MM + 1.4MM signing bonus = $12.9MM
IF – Ben Broussard – $3.55MM
IF – Willie Bloomquist – $0.825MM + $0.05MM signing bonus = $0.875MM
LF – Raul Ibanez – $5.5MM
CF – Ichiro Suzuki – $11MM + $1.5MM signing bonus = $12.5MM + incentives
RF – Jose Guillen – $5MM + incentives
OF – Jeremy Reed – $0.38MM
DH – Jose Vidro – $7.5MM – $2MM from Nats = $5.5MM

SP – Felix Hernandez – $0.42MM
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $8.75MM
SP – Jeff Weaver – $8.325MM + incentives
SP – Miguel Batista – $8.33MM
SP – Horacio Ramirez – $2.65MM

RP – J.J. Putz – $2.2MM + $0.5MM signing bonus = $2.7MM
RP – Chris Reitsma – $1.35MM
RP – Julio Mateo – $1MM + $0.075MM signing bonus = $1.075MM
RP – George Sherrill – $0.38MM
RP – Jake Woods – $0.38MM
RP – Arthur Rhodes – $0.38MM
RP – Jon Huber – $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

RP – Mark Lowe – $0.38MM
RP – Aaron Small – $0.38MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $0.38MM
3B – Sean Burroughs – $0.45MM + incentives

Maybe someone can tell me whether signing bonuses are typically spread throughout the life of the contract.  That’s what I’ve done here (the Mariners seem to love signing bonuses).  By my calculations this is a $104MM Opening Day payroll.  You can’t call the team cheap.

The Ms offense was the second-worst in the league last year.  They made two change.  Jose Vidro, while a subpar DH and lousy acquisition, can’t help but improve upon the lackluster performance of Carl Everett and Co. last year.  And with Ichiro sticking in center, the Ms are essentially replacing the offense of Reed and Bloomquist with Guillen.  The offense appears to have the potential to reach the middle of the pack.

The Mariners have some trade candidates in Reed and Broussard, but given Bavasi’s track record, I’d be surprised if he made deals with them to improve the team.   

As for the rotation, not giving 25 starts to Joel Pineiro should help.  They’re going for a mostly groundball approach with this staff, and it should be better.  Last year’s starters posted a cumulative 4.88 ERA.  Lack of Pineiro and a step forward from Felix might be able to put them around 4.50.

Replacing Rafael Soriano with Chris Reitsma in the eighth inning will damage the club.  And it’s not a big deal yet, but lights out closer J.J. Putz is nursing a tender elbow this spring.  The pen could fall apart in a hurry.  Last year’s group had a 4.04 ERA.   

To me, the Mariners have very little chance of making the playoffs this year. I suppose they could pull off an upset with some career years in the rotation, no injuries, and great leaps forward from Lopez and Betancourt.  Still, the odds are stacked against them.

   

Ms Could Sign Felix Long-Term

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I mentioned yesterday that Felix Hernandez had been hoping for a long-term deal rather than the renewal he received.  Apparently the Mariners do not consider it too early to talk – the Tacoma News Tribune reports that the Mariners are "deep in negotiations on a long-term deal" with Felix’s agent.

Both sides should be happy with four years and $10MM guaranteed, with a fifth year option.  The Ms should pounce if Felix’s agent is anywhere in this ballpark.

I’ve projected a 3.39 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for Hernandez in my 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Guide.

Young Players Covet Long-Term Security

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Locking up promising young players to avoid their arbitration years has become all the rage these days.  It can be argued as win-win, as the player trades some risk for a smaller AAV than he could get going year to year.

  • The Padres are looking to give first baseman Adrian Gonzalez a long-term deal after a contract renewal near the league minimum.  They did this with Jake Peavy, though Kevin Towers renewed him in after each of his first two seasons.
  • The Nationals will meet with Ryan Zimmerman’s agent tomorrow.  Barry Svrluga thinks David Wright’s contract could be the benchmark.
  • Felix Hernandez told John Hickey he’d been hoping for a multiyear deal with the Mariners rather than a renewal.  If he improves upon his 2006 season and stays healthy, he might get around four years and $10MM.  The Mariners have actually had talks with second baseman Jose Lopez regarding a multiyear deal.
  • Keep in mind that it’s definitely not a risk-free proposition for the team.  Look no further than the four-year, $11MM contract given to Royals shortstop Angel Berroa following his Rookie of the Year 2003 season.

Ms Could Trade Reed, Broussard

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The Seattle Post-Intelligencer’s John Hickey reports that fringe players Jeremy Reed and Ben Broussard stand a decent chance of being dealt this spring.  With Ichiro in center and Vidro at DH, one or both may be expendable.

Reed remains a valuable commodity, a perfect guy for a team like the Marlins to acquire at fifty cents on the dollar.  He enters his age 26 season having survived a trade from the White Sox, a partially torn wrist ligament, Red Sox trade rumors, a serious wrist sprain, and a broken thumb.  The Fielding Bible called him "an up-and-coming elite center fielder" a year ago, but he’s without a starting gig now. 

Can Reed bounce back from an awful .217/.260/.377 line?  Baseball Prospectus has him at .267/.333/.399 for ’07; ZiPS calls for .262/.335/.393.  We have a consensus.  The average AL CF hit .275/.334/.437 last year; it was .264/.335/.418 in the NL.  There’s reason to believe Reed could provide league average offense and excellent defense for a good price for some team in ’07. 

Broussard is a 30 year-old 1B/DH.  He’s been used as a platoon guy, but doesn’t really have the splits to back that up.  As a $3.55MM bench player, he doesn’t have much use for the Mariners. On the plus side, he is a talented beat-boxer.

Ichiro Could Reach Free Agency

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John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports today that Ichiro Suzuki believes it is possible he will become a free agent for the first time after this season.  Ichiro is unsure of his feelings on that idea, and Hickey points out that this is not him saying he wants out.

Ichiro’s agent, Tony Attanasio, brings up the midseason trade possibility:

"If it appears to them that they can’t sign Ichiro, they might have to trade him. If they didn’t, they’d risk just getting a draft choice for him."

However, the two sides have had preliminary discussions about an extension.  The issue may not be money, though – Ichiro said recently that if the Mariners offered him a billion-dollar contract, he’d have to think about it.  That’s why the Ichiro-to-Boston type rumors will be in full force this summer.  The White Sox and Cardinals could be other possibilities.  And if he’s willing to switch back to right field, even more possibilities will emerge.  The Yankees will have an opening there if they decline Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option for ’08.

Mariners Sign Jeff Weaver

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UPDATE: The Seattle Times says it’s a done deal at one year, $8MM.  Weaver can earn another $1.4MM in incentives.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times indicated today that the Ms and Jeff Weaver are nearing a one-year contract, as the pitcher would like to re-enter the free agent market after the season.  (However, Adam Rubin says it’s for two years and about $16MM).

The signing would push southpaw Jake Woods to the bullpen.  The Ms signed another southpaw, Arthur Rhodes, to help in the pen as well.  Rhodes pitched for Seattle from 2000-03 before leaving as a free agent.

Both the Times and the PI indicate that Seattle’s second choice would be Mark Redman if the Weaver deal falls through.  The Cardinals had offered Weaver a base of $6MM per season over two years, plus incentives, but they appear out of the mix.  Same goes for the Bucs.

Mariners In Lead For Jeff Weaver

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners are the frontrunners to sign free agent starter Jeff Weaver.  An agreement could be reached tonight once the number of years is decided. 

This would be a Bill Bavasi signing I actually wouldn’t mind.  Pushing Baek/Woods out of the rotation is a good thing, and the commitment to Weaver shouldn’t be huge.  It’s a revamped rotation for Seattle, though Weaver doesn’t fit the groundball mold of a lot of their other offseason acquisitions (Ramirez, Batista, Reitsma). 

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