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Mariners On The Hunt For Right-Handed Power Bat

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In a profile of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale outlined the team’s remaining offseason plans, noting specifically that Seattle hopes to add a right-handed power bat (ideally at third to replace the recently retired Kyle Seager) and a left-handed bat in the outfield. In addition to landing 2021 NL All-Star Adam Frazier in a November trade with the Padres, Dipoto already made one of the bigger offseason splashes of the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, inking reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal to anchor manager Scott Servais’ rotation.

Given what’s already a relatively crowded outfield picture in Seattle (Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez all figure to see significant time there, as could Frazier and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell), the outfielder Nightengale suggests Dipoto is targeting is likely to be of the versatile bench-bat sort. Any of Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Billy Hamilton, Gerardo Parra, Matt Joyce, or Billy McKinney could come without a significant commitment, and Dipoto might check in on Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario if either is willing to take on a part-time role.

The right-handed power bat is unlikely to come cheaply, however. The obvious option on the current market is Kris Bryant, and it’s no surprise that nary a report on Bryant passes without a prominent reference to the Mariners. Given how much money Dipoto is known to have left to spend — the Mariners, who have one of the youngest rosters in the bigs, have just under $87MM in salary committed to the 2022 roster (per Roster Resource) — Bryant remains a very live possibility, as might Seiya Suzuki (though he’d contribute to the outfield glut). Trevor Story and (perhaps) Carlos Correa could also be on the table.

The presence of incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford may be a roadblock to a major move at the position, since Dipoto has repeatedly stated that Crawford isn’t changing positions. The Fielding Bible ranked Crawford as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2021, though both Story and Correa ranked higher on that list. With Story reportedly uninterested in a position change and Correa on the hunt for a mega-deal, neither seems likely at this point barring a trade of Crawford for another piece.

With no other clear upgrade over utilityman Abraham Toro on the free agent market, Dipoto is likely to explore trade possibilities should Bryant sign elsewhere. With the A’s reportedly entering a fire sale, Matt Chapman is the obvious first port of call, though he’ll draw widespread interest and will command a small fortune in prospect capital. Seattle could also look to engage the Guardians on Jose Ramirez, though he’d take an even bigger bite out of the Seattle system than Chapman and is well on his way to an enormous payday when he becomes a free agent following the 2023 season. Josh Donaldson, who posted a solid-if-unspectacular .247/.352/.475 line in 135 games with the Twins in 2021, still has plenty of power and isn’t likely to cost much more than a willingness to eat a substantial chunk of the two years and $50MM (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 option) remaining on his contract. The 2015 AL MVP could be an intriguing upside play, but he’d be a particularly risky bet for a club hoping to catapult into the upper echelons of the American League sooner rather than later.

Regardless of how Dipoto addresses the loss of Seager — indeed, he could well head into Opening Day with Toro manning the hot corner and reexamine the position at the trade deadline — the Mariners are sure to be a hot pick to take a major step forward in 2022 whenever the season gets rolling. After overachieving in 2021 with 90 wins and a spot at the periphery of playoff contention well into the season’s final week, the young M’s will be expected to contend for this year’s AL West title — particularly if, as expected, Correa doesn’t return to Houston. Should they add another big bat, don’t be surprised to see them picked as a dark horse to win a pennant as early as next season.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Calvin Jones Passes Away

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Former Mariners reliever Calvin Jones has passed away from cancer, as relayed by Bob Nightengale of USA Today on Twitter. He was 58 years old.

Jones was taken by the Mariners with the first overall selection in the 1984 January draft. (At the time, there was a second entry draft in January, largely for those who had graduated in the winter.) After initially working primarily as a starter in the minors, he made more appearances out of the bullpen as he climbed the minor league ladder. He made his MLB debut in 1991, throwing 46 1/3 innings over 27 relief appearances with the Mariners. He put up an ERA of 2.53 and recorded a couple of saves. In 1992, he logged 61 2/3 innings over 38 games with an ERA of 5.69. Although that was his the end of his time pitching in the majors, he continued playing for another decade, spending time in the minors, the CPBL, the Mexican League and The Atlantic League. He finished his MLB career with an ERA of 4.33 and 91 strikeouts over 108 innings in 65 games.

After his playing days were done, Jones worked as a scout for the Dodgers. This 2016 story from Scott Miller and Bleacher Report highlights how Jones was fundamental to the Dodgers making the franchise-altering decision to select Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft.

We at MLB Trade Rumors pass on our condolences to the Jones family, and Calvin’s many friends and fans.

Mariners Sign Erick Mejia To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have signed infielder/outfielder Erick Mejia to a minor league deal, per Triple-A director of media relations Paul Braverman. Mejia was never on a 40-man roster in 2021, making him eligible to sign a contract during the lockout.

Mejia got a cup of coffee with the Royals in both 2019 and 2020, getting 43 plate appearances in 17 MLB games. In that small sample, he slashed .167/.244/.222. The Royals non-tendered him and then re-signed him to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 campaign. In 55 Triple-A games, he hit .246/.317/.409.

Despite that meager offensive production, the 27-year-old Mejia surely appeals to the Mariners due to his defensive versatility, something all MLB teams value these days. He has seen time at second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions, making him a fallback option should injuries damage either their infield or outfield depth.

This is Mejia’s second stint with the Mariners, as he was originally signed by the team back in June 2012 as an amateur free agent.  After spending his first three-plus pro seasons in Seattle’s organization, the M’s traded Mejia to the Dodgers for Joe Wieland in January 2016.  This wasn’t the only prominent trade of Mejia’s career, as he went to Kansas City in January 2018 as part of a three-team deal involving the Dodgers and White Sox.

Braverman also notes that the M’s have re-signed left-handed pitcher Ian McKinney, who joined Seattle’s farm system in 2019 after six seasons in the Cardinals’ organization. McKinney got off to a good start this past season, as he posted a 2.18 ERA and 37.6% strikeout rate (albeit with an 11.3% walk rate) over 33 innings over over six starts in Double-A. However, after a promotion to Triple-A, McKinney’s numbers went south, with a 6.04 ERA and 19.8% strikeout rate over 52 2/3 innings (starting 10 of 11 games).

Mariners, Asher Wojciechowski Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have agreed to bring righty Asher Wojciechowski back to the organization on a minor league contract, per their official transactions log. The journeyman starter signed on with the M’s on a minor league deal back in July but didn’t get a call to the big leagues. He subsequently became a minor league free agent at season’s end, thus allowing him to sign a minor league deal this offseason.

Wojciechowski, 33, has seen action in parts of five big league seasons, including in each of the past three. He appeared in just one game with the 2021 Yankees, allowing a pair of runs over four innings in a spot start, but was a fairly consistent presence with the Orioles in 2019-20. Baltimore originally acquired Wojciechowski from Cleveland in a cash deal back in 2019, and it looked as though he might simply make a spot start or two at the time of the swap.

Instead, Wojciechowski pitched well enough to quickly grab a spot in a patchwork O’s rotation. He worked to a 3.60 ERA in his first 30 innings, providing the Orioles plenty of reason to give him some leash from there on. Overall, while Wojciechowski didn’t exactly dominate, he gave an Orioles roster that was desperate for pitching a total of 82 1/3 innings of 4.92 ERA ball from July 2 through season’s end.

That proved enough for the O’s to keep Wojciechowski on the 40-man roster all winter, and he headed into the shortened 2020 season with a rotation spot. He continued to hold his own through the first four starts of the 2020 season, but after a swift decline — 19 runs over his next 18 1/3 frames — Wojciechowski was designated for assignment and passed through outright waivers.

Overall, Wojciechowski has 202 innings at the big league level, albeit with an unsightly 5.93 ERA to show for it. He’s fanned a respectable 21.9% of his opponents and posted a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate, but Wojciechowski is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s shown a proclivity for surrendering the long ball. Most of his big time in the Majors has been spent in homer-friendly home parks — Houston, Cincinnati, Baltimore, the Bronx — so if he makes it to Seattle, perhaps T-Mobile Park could help to slightly reduce that problem. Still, with an average of 2.0 homers per nine innings pitched, Wojciechowski’s struggles go beyond the dimensions of his home parks.

As things stand, Wojciechowski is a pure depth option for the M’s. Seattle inked reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to lead its staff in 2022 and beyond. He’ll be followed by stalwart southpaw Marco Gonzales, promising sophomore Logan Gilbert and righty Chris Flexen — a KBO reclamation project that has turned into a resound success for the M’s. Former top prospects Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn could factor into the mix as well, but the general expectation is that the Mariners will add another veteran to round out the rotation in the days and weeks coming out of the lockout.

Wojciechowski isn’t likely to emerge as an option unless the Mariners incur several injuries, but as far as depth options go, a well-traveled veteran with a 4.33 ERA in 664 2/3 Triple-A innings is a solid one to have on hand.

Mariners Notes: Haniger, Rodriguez, Kirby, Bryant

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Mitch Haniger’s sensational rebound on the heels of four surgeries was one of the highlights in a generally exciting 2021 season for Mariners fans. The now-31-year-old Haniger belted a career-high 39 home runs in a career-high 691 plate appearances, announcing his return from a gruesome sequence of injuries with authority and cementing himself in the heart of Seattle’s order — at least for now.

Haniger is set to become a free agent next offseason, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times takes a lengthy look at his status within the organization, noting that it’s quite possible this is Haniger’s final year with the club. The Mariners, to this point, haven’t had much interest in an extension due both to Haniger’s recent injury woes and the fact that he’ll be 32 in the first season of a new deal. It’s always possible that stance could change and talks could pick up when the lockout lifts, but barring that, Haniger would play out the current season and reach the market next winter, at which point all 30 teams would have the ability to sign him.

Further complicating the Haniger situation, of course, is the enviable depth the Mariners have in the outfield. While Haniger is entrenched in right field for the 2022 season, the Mariners hope that can be the long-term home for top prospect Julio Rodriguez, whom most outlets peg among the game’s top five to ten overall prospects. Seattle also has Jarred Kelenic, who struggled early in his debut campaign before a much stronger finish, 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell as potential long-term options — to say nothing of current part-time options like Jake Fraley and Dylan Moore.

Rodriguez, in particular, is on the cusp of the Majors after hitting a combined .347/.441/.560 between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this past season. The Athletic’s Corey Brock takes a look the immediate outlook for Rodriguez and three other Mariners prospects, noting that there’s at least a small chance that Rodriguez could play his way onto the Opening Day roster. As Brock notes, president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto has stated that there’s “no unrealistic expectation” for someone as talented as the 21-year-old Rodriguez.

Of course, Rodriguez has yet to play in Triple-A, and Mariners fans in particular will recall that the organization kept Kelenic in the minors to open the 2021 campaign under similar circumstances. That was a controversial decision, due largely to comments made by former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather, though Kelenic’s early struggles and his subsequent option back to Triple-A Tacoma at least made the Mariners’ decision look justifiable.

Heading into the 2022 season, Seattle could reasonably look to Haniger, Kelenic, Lewis, Fraley and newcomer Adam Frazier in the outfield (the latter depending heavily on what type of infielder or infielders Seattle adds in trade or free agency). There’s no urgent need for Rodriguez to break camp, but a big enough showing in whatever limited exhibition games we get could make his future a bigger talking point.

Also knocking on the door to the big leagues is 24-year-old right-hander George Kirby — a consensus top-100 prospect himself who’s expected to make his big league debut this coming season. He’s yet to pitch in Triple-A and only logged 26 frames in Double-A last season, so that’ll quite likely come later in the season — and Brock suggests it’d likely happen only if a legitimate rotation spot is opened due to injury or other circumstances. Kirby pitched in just 67 2/3 innings last season, and electric as they were, he could still use some further development.

In some respects, Rodriguez and Kirby are similar to last year’s ballyhooed duo of Kelenic and righty Logan Gilbert. Both debuted with huge fanfare, and while there were plenty of highlights (particularly down the stretch), there were plenty of ups and downs as well. Still, Seattle reliever Paul Sewald mentioned both Kelenic and Gilbert in an interview with Stacy Rost and Jake Heaps on 710 ESPN (YouTube link), pointing to both as potential examples of service-time manipulation when explaining the MLBPA’s stance in the ongoing labor talks.

Sewald, a close friend of Kris Bryant, pointed back to the longtime Cubs slugger’s delayed debut as the most egregious incident of service-time manipulation but also used the 2021 Mariners to rhetorically raise another aspect of the service-time debate.

“If we had Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic from Opening Day, are we two games better and maybe we make the playoffs?” Sewald said. “I don’t know. I don’t know that for a fact. I’m just saying, if we weren’t looking at service-time manipulation, could they make an impact where you [instead of] finishing one game back, two games back, you maybe make the playoffs? It’s disappointing.”

Sewald certainly isn’t claiming Seattle would’ve been postseason-bound had both players debuted earlier — Kelenic certainly didn’t hit the ground running, after all — but it’s another aspect of the puzzle to consider. A more prominent example of that could be the 2010 Braves, who did make the decision to carry Jason Heyward on the Opening Day roster and ultimately edged out the Padres by one game for a Wild Card berth. Had they withheld Heyward, who hit .277/.393/.456 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, they could well have missed the postseason. There are obvious business reasons for teams to keep players down, and those who choose to do so aren’t necessarily doing anything wrong and are simply using the current system to their long-term advantage. Still, Sewald’s general point, outside of any specific examples, is one piece of the issue that isn’t always discussed.

Of greater note to Mariners fans, perhaps, is Sewald’s mention that he and Bryant are close friends. The Las Vegas natives are college teammates who’ve known each other since high school, and Sewald acknowledged that he’s lobbied for a reunion.

“I convinced him to go to University of San Diego with me and play with me there,” Sewald said with a laugh. “I am doing the best that I possibly can to convince him to be a Seattle Mariner for the next few years.”

Dollars and years figure to win the day whenever Bryant puts pen to paper, and Sewald’s comments are little more than anecdotal. That said, Mariners fans surely don’t mind having a close friend of Bryant on the roster who’s attempting to sell him on the team, city and fan base — all else being equal.

Latest On Mariners’ Infield Pursuits

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It’s already been a fairly active offseason for the Mariners, who before the league-implemented lockout by signing reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract and acquiring second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier in a trade with the Padres. Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, the M’s are expected to resume that aggressive approach as they look to capitalize on a top-ranked farm system and take the next step from last year’s 90-win showing to their first playoff berth in two decades.

The checklist, in some ways, looks similar to early in the offseason. Even with Ray on board, Seattle is likely to add some veteran innings to the back of the rotation. The big right-handed bat sought by president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has not yet been acquired. As such, it’s hardly a surprise that the M’s have been linked extensively to all three of Kris Bryant, Trevor Story and Seiya Suzuki in recent weeks.

Perhaps more interesting is the idea that the Mariners could potentially add two of those names to the fold. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times suggests that it’s at least possible for Seattle to add both Bryant and Story, adding not to “underestimate the possibility” that Frazier could be traded before ever playing a game for the Mariners.

That’s a new and yet-unexplored topic by and large, so it’s worth taking a bit of time to unpack — after establishing a few points up front. For starters, it’s certainly possible that even if Seattle were to pull off an unlikely stunner and sign both Bryant and Story, Frazier could still be deployed as a multi-position super utility player. That’d cut into the available playing time for switch-hitting Abraham Toro, but Toro could conceivably rotate between multiple infield positions (third base, second base and perhaps even first base) and designated hitter himself. He also has minor league options remaining.

Secondly, it should be emphasized that there’s no indication in the report that a blockbuster addition of both Bryant and Story is at all likely, nor does Divish suggest that Frazier will be actively shopped by the Mariners. Some would question the logic of acquiring Frazier in the first place if the end result were only for him to be traded just a couple months later. However, in the (very) hypothetical event that scenario plays out, it surely wouldn’t have been the plan at the time of the deal. Any further activity involving Frazier would quite likely stem from the Mariners unexpectedly landing some big-ticket items they originally didn’t anticipate being possible. And, as Divish notes, a Frazier deal would likely only come together if he were to bring back some form of immediate big league help (perhaps pairing him with some minor league talent).

While Frazier’s time with the Padres didn’t go as either player or team hoped, the 2021 season was nevertheless a strong one for the 30-year-old veteran. In 639 trips to the plate, Frazier slashed .305/.368/.411 — good for a 114 wRC+ — adding in five home runs, five triples and career-highs in doubles (36) and steals (10). His 10.8% strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career by a good margin.

That said, Frazier is a free agent after the 2022 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $7.2MM salary this year. It’s certainly plausible that the Mariners, with a deep outfield mix and the more cost-effective Toro as an option at both second and third base, might not relish the idea of relegating Frazier to a rather pricey bench piece — if they were able to add a pair of bats. Furthermore, a team with a need at second base (e.g. White Sox) or in the outfield (e.g. Guardians) could potentially show interest were Frazier’s trade market to be rekindled. Dipoto has already made clear he has no intention of trading his top prospects this offseason, but some mid-range talents plus a win-now piece like Frazier could theoretically net some needed pitching help from a trade partner.

Again, it’s safest to assume this is all a long shot and that Frazier will end up playing a notable role with the Mariners this coming season. But with no end in sight to the lockout, it’s also hard not to think about some outside-the-box possibilities and what might lie ahead when baseball returns to brighter days. A second Frazier swap or the Mariners shocking the baseball world with a pair of big-name additions might feel like a reach, but with just $87MM in projected 2022 payroll and only $37MM in 2023, the money is there for Dipoto & Co. to at least consider some ambitious possibilities.

Matt Magill Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Matt Magill has announced his retirement, as per his personal Twitter account.  The 32-year-old is calling it a career after 13 professional seasons in total, and parts of five MLB seasons.

It was quite a nice run for a 31st-round draft pick, as Magill was selected out of high school by the Dodgers in 2008.  Magill made his Major League debut in the Dodger Blue in 2013, tossing 27 2/3 innings for the club before returning to Triple-A for the entirety of the 2014 season.  That winter saw Magill dealt to the Reds in exchange for Chris Heisey, but Magill’s Cincinnati tenure was marked by a Tommy John surgery that wiped out almost all of his 2015-16 seasons.

Magill finally gained a foothold in the big leagues in 2018, appearing in 90 games and pitching 107 1/3 innings with the Twins and Mariners over the course of the 2018-19 seasons.  While his Statcast numbers weren’t pretty, Magill outpitched his metrics by rather a stunning amount, posting a 3.94 ERA over those two seasons despite some of the league’s worst hard-contact and xwOBA totals.  Magill also allowed an above-average number of home runs, but struck out batters at a solid 25.1% rate.

The abbreviated 2020 season saw Magill post a perfect 0.00 ERA over his first eight outings before he ran into some serious struggles, quite possibly due to a shoulder injury that eventually brought an early end to his campaign.  The Mariners released Magill and then quickly re-signed him at the end of last year’s Spring Training, but the righty didn’t see any action at either the MLB or minor league levels in 2021.  Magill ends his career with a 4.63 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate over 149 2/3 innings in the bigs.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Magill on his career, and we wish him the best in retirement.

Mariners Claim Top Spot In Updated Farm Rankings

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  • Baseball America unveiled their 2022 Organization Talent Rankings today, with the Seattle Mariners claiming the top spot on this offseason’s installment. With talented youngsters like Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, and Noelvi Marte forcing their way up the minor leagues and the Mariners fresh off a 90-win season, the time may be right to buy stock in the Mariners franchise. BA’s Kyle Glaser notes that 16 of the last 17 teams to claim the top farm system have reached the playoffs within two years of earning that distinction. The one team who bucked that trend, the 2011 Royals, took three years, reaching the World Series in 2014 and winning it in 2015. This history may prove to be of huge import for Seattle fans, who are now 20 years removed from their last playoff appearance.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

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TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.

Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.

Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.

Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.

Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).

A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.

MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.

Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.

Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.

As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.

Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.

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