Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners finally ended their postseason drought, and took a step further in October with a dramatic sweep of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series before falling to the Astros in the ALDS. Now, the Mariners are looking to shed their other ignominious label as the only one of the 30 MLB teams that has never reached the World Series.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodriguez, OF: $195MM through 2034 (based on multiple club and player options, deal could be worth up to $455MM through the 2039 season)
- Luis Castillo, SP: $101MM through 2027 (conditional option for 2028, either a $25MM vesting option for Castillo or a $5MM club option for the Mariners)
- Robbie Ray, SP: $94MM through 2026 (Ray can opt out after 2024 season)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $41MM through 2026
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $24MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2025)
- Evan White, 1B: $20MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; Mariners also hold $11MM club option for 2027 with $1MM buyout, and $12.5MM club option for 2028 with $1MM buyout)
- Marco Gonzales, SP: $18.5MM through 2024 (no buyout on $15MM club option for 2025)
- Jesse Winker, OF: $8.25MM through 2023
- Chris Flexen, SP/RP: $8MM through 2023
- Andres Munoz, RP: $6MM through 2025 (Mariners hold club options worth $6MM in 2026, $8MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Luke Weaver (5.112): $3MM
- Tom Murphy (5.092): $1.9MM
- Diego Castillo (4.118): $2.9MM
- Paul Sewald (4.072): $3.6MM
- Ryan Borucki (4.066): $1.1MM
- Casey Sadler (4.035): $1.025MM
- Dylan Moore (4.000): $2MM
- Erik Swanson (3.096): $1.4MM
- Luis Torrens (3.091): $1.2MM
- Ty France (3.089): $4.7MM
- Abraham Toro (2.149): $1.4MM
- Kyle Lewis (2.146): $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Murphy, Borucki, Sadler, Torrens
Other Financial Commitments
- $3.75MM owed to the Mets as part of the December 2018 Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade
Total 2023 commitments: $96.125MM
Total future commitments: $536.07MM
Free Agents
The Mariners got a jump on some offseason business in August and September when Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo were both signed to contract extensions. Since 2022 was only Rodriguez’s rookie season, there was less urgency to lock up the burgeoning superstar immediately, and yet the complex and potentially record-setting deal (that could span most of the next two decades) underlined the Mariners’ commitment to Rodriguez as the new face of Seattle baseball.
Castillo would’ve been a free agent after the 2023 season, and in signing him through at least the 2027 season, Seattle doubled down on its commitment to the right-hander after already paying a big prospect price to acquire him from the Reds at the trade deadline. Extending Castillo also represents the Mariners’ latest investment in their starting rotation, which now consists of two high-paid stars (Castillo and Robbie Ray), two homegrown talents in their pre-arbitration years (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), and two veterans on reasonable contracts (Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen).
Of course, Flexen wasn’t a starter for much of the second half, as he was moved to the bullpen once Castillo came aboard. He still amassed enough innings to hit a vesting threshold in his initial two-year, $4.75MM deal with the Mariners, thus assuring Flexen of an $8MM salary in 2023. Flexen and Gonzales have pretty similar profiles as low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurlers, though Gonzales has a much more established track record of limiting hard contact, as well as just a longer track record as an established Major League starter.
With six starting candidates for five rotation spots, it can be assumed that Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby aren’t going anywhere. That leaves Gonzales and Flexen as possible trade candidates if the M’s did want to deal from this apparent surplus, and Flexen already reportedly received some interest from other teams prior to the deadline. Flexen is the younger and less expensive of the two, and had a 3.73 ERA/5.00 SIERA and 0.7 fWAR over 137 2/3 innings in 2022, while Gonzales had a 4.13 ERA/4.99 SIERA and only 0.1 fWAR in 183 frames. Those numbers slightly favor Flexen, but as his SIERA implies, the advanced metrics weren’t impressed with his work last year.
Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, and Bryce Miller represent Seattle’s next wave of young pitchers, with all three expected to make their Triple-A debuts to start off the 2023 season. If all goes well, at least one of those prospects could be ready to jump to the majors later in 2023, perhaps becoming a new sixth starter/swingman type in their first taste of the big leagues. Or, the Mariners could possibly acquire a veteran for such a role in the offseason, if one of Gonzales or Flexen was traded.
The other option, naturally, is for the M’s to just stand pat with what is already a strong rotation mix. The Mariners got an unusual amount of good fortune with the health of their starting pitchers in 2022, and they might just want to keep both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold as additional depth, considering how rare it is for a team to dodge the injury bug for two straight years.
Then again, it’s also pretty rare for a team to post consecutive years of dominance in one-run games. The Mariners followed up their 33-19 mark in one-run games in 2021 with a 34-22 record last season, defying the conventional wisdom that teams “should” generally finish around .500 in such close contests. Seattle again beat those odds thanks in large part to an outstanding bullpen that should return mostly intact.
The unpredictable nature of relief pitching means that probably not all of Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, and Matt Brash will continue to pitch as well as they did in 2022, yet that is still quite a core group to have in place as the Mariners look for a few more reinforcements. Trading from that group is also a possibility, as just like with the rotation, the Mariners’ pitching depth gives them some leverage in exploring deals. As noted, any of the top prospect starters could also break into the majors as relievers, adding more depth to the pen.
In terms of big-league additions, the M’s already made a move by claiming Luke Weaver off waivers from Kansas City. Weaver’s first full season as a relief pitcher resulted in a 6.56 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with the Royals and Diamondbacks, but his advanced metrics indicate that Weaver was quite unlucky to post such an ugly ERA. There isn’t much left-handed depth in the relief corps, though the M’s could at least tender Ryan Borucki a contract and keep him around. Seattle is also likely to explore re-signing Matt Boyd after he delivered some solid late-season work, but Boyd might prefer a clearer path to a starting job now that he is further removed from his September 2021 flexor tendon surgery.
While the Mariners have one of the more stable pitching situations of any team in baseball, their lineup has several question marks. Improving the position-player mix will surely be the priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto this winter, and given Dipoto’s signature aggressiveness, nothing can be ruled out. Signing a major free agent, trading pitching for hitting, trading a younger position player for a more established bat — all of these options and more could be on the table.
There should be a good amount of payroll space to work with, as Roster Resource projects the M’s around $131.5MM in 2023 player payroll (including arbitration estimates), with probably a few million to be shaved off that total via non-tenders. This leaves Dipoto with plenty of spending capacity before he even reaches the Mariners’ team-record $158MM payroll from 2018, and it also seems quite possible ownership might provide some more funds to help keep the playoff revenues rolling. Swapping Gonzales or Flexen would be a way of reallocating some money that is already on the books, and the Mariners could perhaps take a flier on another undesirable contract by trading Evan White, who no longer seems to be in the team’s long-term plans.
For a 90-win team, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of positions settled heading into 2023. Rodriguez will play center field, J.P. Crawford will ostensibly play shortstop (more on that later), Ty France is slated for first base, Eugenio Suarez for third base, and Cal Raleigh slugged his way into establishing himself as the starting catcher once Tom Murphy‘s season was cut short by shoulder surgery. Either Murphy or Luis Torrens could be non-tender candidates, as neither can be optioned back to the minor leagues.
Jesse Winker will receive at least a share of everyday duty in left field, though he will be trying to re-establish himself after an underwhelming first season in Seattle. Winker hit only .219/.344/.344 over 547 plate appearances, with a reversal of his career-long splits; he struggled badly against right-handed pitching in 2022, while actually posting decent numbers against southpaws. If Winker can regain his old form next season, that would alone help the Mariners add some more pop to the batting order, though his struggles were somewhat mitigated by Suarez (also acquired from the Reds in basically a salary dump as part of the Winker trade) rediscovering his hitting stroke once joining the M’s.
Between Winker, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty, and utilityman Dylan Moore, the Mariners may have plenty of options for the corner outfield positions….or none, at least for a team that hopes to contend. Lewis is still working his way back from a torn meniscus in 2021, and while he hit well in Triple-A last year, he struggled over 62 PA in the majors. Trammell is only 25 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, and he did manage roughly league-average offense in a part-time role last season, but it remains to be seen if he still grow into being a lineup regular or if he might be a fourth-outfielder type. Haggerty might have hit his own fourth-outfielder ceiling, though he did play quite well in part-time duty in 2022. Kelenic is a former consensus top-10 prospect, but he has looked totally overmatched at the plate in 558 PA at the big league level.
There is enough potential in this group that the M’s could just roll the dice and hope at least one player breaks out as a reliable everyday option to slot alongside Rodriguez. As such, Dipoto might wait until closer to the trade deadline to see if any upgrades are necessary to the outfield or DH spot. Carlos Santana might not be re-signed after posting middling numbers in 2022, and Seattle could just cycle several players into DH duty unless a more consistent bat is needed.
Trading from this outfield group is another possibility, if the Mariners perhaps tried to package one or two of the controllable outfielders to a rebuilding team with an established veteran available. Such a deal could conceivably happen with or without Mitch Haniger re-signing, though a reunion with Haniger could be the smoothest answer.
Haniger carries plenty of injury baggage. He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from a ruptured testicle, core muscle surgery and back surgery. He was then limited to only 57 games in 2022 due to a high ankle sprain (which required a 60-day injured list stint) as well as a two-week absence recovering from COVID-19. With this recent history in mind, Haniger could be a candidate to accept a qualifying offer, except the Mariners may not want to offer $19.65MM on a one-year deal. Not issuing a QO, of course, would mean the Mariners wouldn’t get any compensation if he signed elsewhere, and any number of teams will surely have interest in adding Haniger to their rosters.
Seattle might also explore other free agent outfielders beyond Haniger, in search of a player who could provide somewhat comparable offense on a less-expensive one-year deal than the cost of a qualifying offer. On paper, the M’s have the need and the payroll flexibility to be part of the Aaron Judge conversation, and it’s probably safe to assume the team will check in with Judge’s representatives. But, there’s a reason Dipoto is known as “Trader Jerry” as opposed to “Signer Jerry” — the executive generally turns to the trade market to make his biggest moves, rather than any huge splashes in the free agent pool.
Then again, Ray was signed for $115MM last winter, which already signals a change in Dipoto’s preferred player-acquisition strategy as the Mariners move into win-now mode. Dipoto has already indicated he plans to explore the shortstop market this winter, with such notables as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson headlining a deep class.
The catch is the M’s might not necessarily be viewing any of these shortstops as shortstops, since Dipoto’s stated “great preference” is to keep Crawford at shortstop and use any new infielder as a second baseman. This seems to close the door on the chances of Adam Frazier being re-signed, which isn’t surprising since the former All-Star struggled through a rough 2022 season. It also reaffirms the Mariners’ commitment to Crawford, who was already signed a contract extension back in April.
Dipoto was also adamant last winter that Crawford was Seattle’s everyday shortstop, which seemed to somewhat limit the Mariners’ involvement in last offseason’s deep shortstop class, even though the M’s did have interest in such players as Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,” and that Crawford “does a very good job in anything that we asked him to do.”
Moving Crawford to second base could be the more logical move. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this subject in greater detail back in August, as Crawford’s glovework declined sharply in the view of public defensive metrics (-11 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.9 UZR/150). Crawford was dealing with some knee problems last year and therefore might perform closer to his 2020 Gold Glove form when healthy, but a shift over to second base would also help him from a defensive perspective.
Internal options like Moore, Abraham Toro, or even Haggerty and France could help out at second base in a pinch, yet the keystone definitely seems like the Mariners’ top need on the diamond. If the M’s don’t move Crawford or can’t convince one of the big free agent shortstops to change positions, another route would be to just sign a proper second baseman. Brandon Drury and former Mariner Jean Segura (if the Phillies decline their club option on Segura) could be targeted, or Seattle could gauge trade possibilities with middle-infield heavy teams like the Guardians, Reds, or Cardinals.
For a team that thrived on its success in tight games, there is some irony in the fact that the Mariners lost all three ALDS games to Houston by a combined total of four runs. The M’s are hoping the narrow nature of that series is an omen of how they’re starting to close the gap with the Astros for AL West supremacy, and the 2022-23 offseason could be one of the most important in franchise history as Seattle might be a few finishing touches away from a championship contender.
Mariners Outright Derek Hill
Outfielder Derek Hill has gone unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Mariners earlier in the week, the team announced. He has been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, but he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason as a player who has spent more than seven years in the minors.
Hill, 27 in December, was a first-round pick of the Tigers in 2014. An excellent runner and gifted center fielder, he played his way up the minor league ladder but never found the offensive consistency Detroit had hoped. He’s reached double digits in home runs just once in his minor league career, and he’s increasingly struggled to make contact against higher-level pitching. Through parts of eight minor league seasons, he owns a .246/.315/.362 line with an elevated 25.7% strikeout rate.
Despite the offensive inconsistency, Hill played his way to the majors by 2020 on the strength of his glove and baserunning. He spent parts of three seasons in Detroit, compiling a .240/.291/.339 line over 254 plate appearances in intermittent playing time. He swiped nine bases and played over 600 innings in center field over that stretch. The Tigers designated him for assignment in early August, and Seattle nabbed him off waivers.
Hill has spent the past few months in the Mariners organization, but he didn’t make an appearance in Seattle. He instead spent the stretch run on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma, putting up a .236/.320/.462 showing with five homers in 34 games. Once he officially hits free agency, he figures to entertain some minor league offers with invitations to big league Spring Training.
Mariners Claim Luke Weaver, Designate Derek Hill
The Mariners announced that they have claimed right-hander Luke Weaver off waivers from the Royals. Outfielder Derek Hill was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Weaver, 29, was a highly-touted prospect as he made his way through the system of the Cardinals, who drafted him in 2014. He showed some potential in his first tastes of the big leagues and eventually became a key piece of the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt from Arizona to St. Louis. Weaver made 12 good starts in the desert in 2019 but has since been held back by injuries and underperformance.
He was able to make 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season but put up an ERA of 6.58 that year. He was better in 2021 but a shoulder injury limited him to just 13 starts over that full season. This year, the D-Backs tried moving him to the bullpen, which didn’t really work. He registered a 7.71 ERA before getting flipped to the Royals at the deadline. He was slightly better in KC, but still had a 5.59 ERA after the deal.
There wasn’t any public indication the Royals had placed Weaver on waivers, though it appears they had been quietly performing some roster maintenance. Many teams are facing roster crunches soon, as there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training. Since most teams have at least a few players on the 60-day IL, those players will soon have to retake roster spots or else be cut. Weaver is arbitration-eligible and has been projected for a salary of $3MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Instead, it seems the Royals have cut him loose and will use his roster spot for other players.
For the Mariners, they are evidently more enamored of Weaver than the Royals. It’s not outlandish to think that Weaver could find better results than what he saw in 2022. His .429 batting average on balls in play and 58.6% strand rate are both much worse than league averages. As such, all advanced metrics thought him deserving of much better than his 6.56 combined ERA between the D-Backs and Royals. Weaver’s 3.64 SIERA, 2.69 FIP and 3.82 xFIP all suggest he was better than he might have seemed, though xERA is a bit more skeptical with a 5.45.
In order to take a chance on Weaver, the M’s are risking losing Hill. The 26-year-old was just claimed off waivers from the Tigers in August, having served as a depth piece for both clubs. However, he is now out of options and unable to be easily sent down to the farm going forward. He got into 31 MLB games this year, all with Detroit, and hit .229/.270/.289 for a wRC+ of 60. In 68 minor league games, he slashed .220/.294/.386, 73 wRC+. Despite that tepid offensive output, Hill might find interest from other clubs given his speed and defensive skills. If he clears waivers, he would be eligible to elect free agency based on having spent parts of seven seasons in the minors.
13 Players Elect Free Agency
With the World Series kicking off on Friday, we’re only a couple weeks from the opening of the offseason. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.
Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.
In recent weeks, we’ve provided periodic updates on players qualifying for minor league free agency. Here are the latest, courtesy of the MiLB.com transactions tracker.
Pitchers
- Anthony Banda (Yankees)
- Luke Bard (Yankees)
- Jacob Barnes (Yankees)
- Roenis Elías (Mariners)
- Robbie Erlin (Dodgers)
- Thomas Eshelman (Padres)
- Chi Chi González (Yankees)
- Ryan Hendrix (Reds)
Infielders
- Ryan Goins (Braves)
- Ronald Guzmán (Yankees)
Outfielders
- Alex Dickerson (Braves)
- Travis Demeritte (Braves)
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs)
Mariners Could Be In Position To Deal From Starting Pitching Depth
Going into next year, the Mariners have considerable depth in their rotation. Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray are locked in for the foreseeable future on nine-figure contracts, while both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby proved this season that they fit right in as capable starters who can take the ball in the playoffs. One might expect Chris Flexen, coming off a solid season at the back of Seattle’s rotation that saw him vest an $8MM option for the 2023 season, to bring up the rear.
However, it’s also possible the M’s look to deal Flexen for help elsewhere on the roster this winter. As part of a reader mailbag, The Athletic’s Corey Brock notes that multiple teams inquired about the right-hander at this past trade deadline. Brock opines the M’s could more earnestly shop Flexen for offensive help over the offseason.
After coming over to the Mariners from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Flexen had a strong first season in Seattle that surpassed expectations. He made 31 starts, posting a 3.61 ERA in 179 2/3 innings while compensating for his low 16.9% strikeout rate with a minuscule 5.4% walk rate and a knack for avoiding barrels. Because of this, his performance was generally backed up by the peripherals, leading to a strong 3.89 FIP in 2021.
While those numbers are sufficiently impressive one might assume Flexen is a lock for a rotation spot next year, his follow-up to that campaign in 2022 was less impressive. While his 3.73 ERA this season may not seem like a significant departure from last year, due to the drastically more pitcher-friendly run environment this season, his ERA+ dropped from a solidly above average 114 in 2021 to a just a touch below league average 99 in 2022. Flexen’s dip in performance is further explained by regression in all of his peripherals this season: His groundball rate plummeted from 42.4% in 2021 all the way down to 33.8% in 2022, his walk rate jumped up to a still solid but less impressive 8.6%, and his FIP ballooned up to 4.49. All this lead to the Mariners moving Flexen to the bullpen following their acquisition of Castillo at this season’s trade deadline.
It would certainly make sense for the Mariners to entertain offers on Flexen, particularly with the glut of options the Mariners have for the back of the rotation. Marco Gonzales made 32 starts this year and is under contract for another two seasons (with a club option thereafter). Seattle could theoretically shop Gonzales this winter instead of Flexen, but they elected to stick with the southpaw over Flexen as the #5 starter down the stretch. The M’s also have promising young arms such as Emerson Hancock who may be ready to make the jump to the majors next year.
Between Flexen’s $8MM salary for next season and his dip in performance during 2022, the Mariners wouldn’t recoup an astronomical return. There’ll be a fair number of back of the rotation, innings eating arms in free agency. Many of those pitchers will require multi-year deals, while Flexen will be a free agent after 2023. That shorter commitment could make him more appealing than a free agent landing multiple years at a similar annual salary, but the number of available alternatives will cut against the quality of the trade package Seattle receives.
Given this, the best fit for a Flexen trade would likely be a budget-conscious team who has a bat either under contract or arbitration control at a price higher than they would like to pay. One possible example of such a situation would be the Guardians and Amed Rosario. As Steve Adams discussed earlier today, Rosario is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $9MM in arbitration for the 2023 season, and the Guardians have a glut of young talent available, such as Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, who could potentially be cheaper options to pair with 2022 breakout star Andres Gimenez up the middle.
Rosario, who hit .283/.312/.403 (103 wRC+) this season, has primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but would surely represent an upgrade over Adam Frazier at second base. Meanwhile, the Guardians might appreciate a durable, back of the rotation pitcher who’s already swung between the bullpen and the rotation in his career to line up behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill in the rotation, leaving the likes of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to compete with youngsters like Konnor Pilkington and Cody Morris for the fifth spot in Cleveland’s rotation. The Guardians aren’t likely to jump at a one-for-one swap of Flexen and Rosario, but it’s possible they could have interest in a bigger trade package that sees those players swap teams.
The Guardians represent just one possible option in this mold, however. The Orioles could be open to dealing some offensive talent to shore up a rotation full of question marks. The Rays may look to move on from first baseman Ji-Man Choi, who could replace Carlos Santana in the DH spot next year for the Mariners. Those are just a few of a number of teams that could be in touch with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff about Flexen this winter.
Mitch Haniger Interested In Returning To Seattle
Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that outfielder Mitch Haniger is hoping to return to the Mariners in 2023. Haniger, 32, is a pending free agent following a season where he slashed .246/.308/.429 in just 57 games as he was limited by ankle and back injuries throughout the year. The Mariners, for their part, have been effusive in their praise of Haniger, but have not publicly committed one way or the other regarding a possible reunion.
Divish opines that Seattle may extend Haniger a qualifying offer, and notes that Haniger would likely accept one if offered. The Mariners tagging Haniger with a QO would register as a surprise given his age, extensive injury history, and the depressed market that low-OBP, power-hitting corner outfielders like Haniger have found in free agency in recent years. Furthermore, Seattle is loaded on talent in the outfield, with Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Jesse Winker among the options already under team control for 2023 to man the outfield alongside superstar Julio Rodriguez. With a clear hole at second base and high dollar contracts allotted to the likes of Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo, it’s possible that re-signing Haniger may not be the best use of Seattle’s resources this offseason.
On the other hand, Haniger is a beloved team leader who has been with the Mariners for six seasons, which makes him the longest-tenured player in a clubhouse that has frequently undergone roster churn in recent years. Furthermore, he’s been a reliable contributor offensively whenever he’s been on the field, having posted above-average seasons by OPS+ every season he’s played following his rookie 2016 season, when he played just 36 games. While the Mariners certainly have a plethora of options in the outfield entering next season, none of them (Rodriguez aside) come with Haniger’s track record of productivity. Winker is coming off a down season, Kelenic has struggled in the majors despite his prospect pedigree, Lewis has played just 54 games in the majors since his 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign and badly struggled when he was facing major league pitching in 2022, and Trammell may be better suited as a bench bat than an every day player.
Given all this, a reunion with Haniger could make sense for Seattle, though perhaps not at the level a $19.65MM QO would require. Divish suggests a multiyear deal in the $10-12MM AAV range could make sense, and that seems more plausible, though Haniger may have to resort to a shorter term deal given his injury-marred season in 2022.
Details On Mariners’ Extension With Andres Munoz
MLBTR’s Steve Adams has details on the extension the Mariners signed reliever Andres Munoz to last offseason. At the time, the contract was known to have four years and $7.5MM guaranteed, with three club options available to Seattle. Adams reports that Munoz received a $750K signing bonus in addition to a $750K salary in 2022.
Going forward, Munoz will receive base salaries of $1.5MM, $2MM and $2.5MM from 2023-25, years he otherwise would have been eligible for arbitration. Seattle’s club options cover what would have been Munoz’s first three free agent years, with the options starting at $6MM in 2026 before increasing to $8MM in 2027 and finally $10MM in 2028. Those option years can be boosted by up to $1MM through escalators based on games finished the previous season. Finishing 20, 30, 40, and 45 games between 2025-27 would each escalate the following season’s club option by $250K. Hitting those same benchmarks during the 2026-28 campaigns would trigger an extra $500K apiece in incentives during that season. None of the options comes with a buyout.
Seattle’s confidence in Munoz was rewarded this season, as the righty was among the best relievers in the sport this season. In 65 regular season innings this year, Munoz posted a fantastic 2.49 ERA and an even more impressive 2.04 FIP while racking up 96 strikeouts before appearing in all five of Seattle’s games this postseason. Averaging 100 mph on his fastball, Munoz is a flamethrower who combines his 52.6% groundball rate (less than a percentage point behind the likes of Sandy Alcanatara) with the sixth highest strikeout rate in the majors this year. Among the five pitchers above him, only Jacob deGrom has a lower walk rate, and Munoz ranks third in all of baseball to only deGrom and Edwin Diaz in K/BB.
Munoz did all this while playing through injury, as president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto announced yesterday that Munoz would undergo surgery on his foot this offseason. While no specifics were provided on the surgery, the expectation appears to be that Munoz will be ready for spring training next year.
Given Munoz’s elite stuff and results, the contract now looks like stellar value for the Mariners. At the time he signed the deal, Munoz was relatively new to the organization. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in early 2020, and he was rehabbing from that when the M’s acquired him from the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline. He missed almost all of 2021, making just one appearance at the end of the campaign. Nevertheless, Seattle offered him some financial security last winter, taking the chance he’d break out after the extended layoff. He’s done exactly that, and the team’s reward for rolling the dice on Munoz is another six seasons of affordable control over a 23 year old relief ace.
Dipoto: Mariners To Pursue Shortstops Willing To Play Second Base
There is plenty of cause for optimism in Seattle. The Mariners finished with a 90-72 record, their best since 2003. They delivered one of the best comeback wins in postseason history on their way to knocking off the Blue Jays in the wild card series. Down the stretch, the club locked up budding presumptive AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez through 2034 and extended two-time All Star starting pitcher Luis Castillo through 2028.
Now, on the heels of a thrilling season, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has indicated that he’s open to making big moves in order to improve what is already a playoff-caliber team.
At the M’s end-of-season media session on Wednesday, Dipoto said that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base” (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Dipoto is likely referring to any of the four “big name shortstops” who project to be free agents this offseason: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Each of these four would instantly improve Seattle’s offense, which ranked in the bottom half of all of baseball. All four of the big name shortstops will require multi-year pacts with significant annuals.
The Mariners project to have the payroll capacity to splurge on a top-of-the-market shortstop, should they choose to. In 2022, Seattle ranked 22nd in MLB with an Opening Day player payroll just shy of $104MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2022’s figure is significantly lower than some of the Mariners’ recent seasons, during which Seattle was generally less competitive. From 2016 to 2019, the Mariners averaged total payrolls of roughly $150MM, ranking as high as 11th league-wide.
The M’s currently have around $91MM worth of payroll commitments for 2023, per Roster Resource. Though that number will increase as a result of arbitration, it seems likely that Seattle would have the fiscal capacity to sign one of the big four shortstops, even if they attempt to bring back Mitch Haniger, who will be a free agent this offseason as well.
The major caveat in Seattle’s pursuit of a big-name free agent shortstop will be whether or not any of them will accept a move to second base. Dipoto reaffirmed his commitment to J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ shortstop. He told the media that Crawford, age 27, will “line up for us Opening Day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him.” Dipoto continued on to state plainly that the Mariners signed Crawford to be a shortstop and that “that’s what we intend to do.”
One could argue the cleanest fit of the four aforementioned shortstops would be Turner, who is the only one of the four to appear in Major League games as a second baseman. Turner was a full-time second baseman as recently as the second half of 2021, when he transitioned to the right side of the diamond so that the Dodgers could accommodate both Corey Seager and Turner after Los Angeles acquired him from the Nationals.
None of Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson has played on the right side of the infield in their careers, although they all have extended experience at the infield’s most demanding position. Trevor Story had also never previously played the keystone, but he agreed to move over in deference to Bogaerts upon signing with the Red Sox last offseason. Whether any of the big four shortstops this time would do so while letting Crawford keep shortstop isn’t presently known, but Dipoto and his staff seem likely to inquire with everyone in that group.
Haniger, meanwhile, will hit free agency after spending the past five seasons in Seattle. M’s general manger Justin Hollander was effusive in his praise for the 31-year-old outfielder and said the organization will remain in contact with his representatives at Apex Baseball (via Divish). At the same time, he noted that Haniger “wants to gauge what else is out there” on the open market during his first trip to free agency.
It’s not the best platform season for Haniger, who missed a couple months with a high ankle sprain. He ultimately appeared in 57 games and hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances. That’s above-average offense but a step back from his 39-homer, .253/.318/.485 campaign in 2021. Haniger is eligible for a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but the relative down platform year and the M’s stockpile of controllable outfielders make it seem likely they’ll allow him to hit free agency unencumbered by a QO.
Jesse Winker, Andres Munoz Undergo Surgeries
The Mariners season came to an end last week, as Seattle’s first playoff berth in two decades was cut short in the Divisional Round. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, the M’s were dealt a sweep by their division rivals in Houston.
With the year wrapped up, a couple key Mariners players are going under the knife. Corner outfielder Jesse Winker underwent a procedure on his left knee, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Jake García of KING 5 News). He’ll also undergo neck surgery at some point in the future. A cervical disc bulge in his neck sent Winker to the injured list just before the start of the playoffs, causing him to miss Seattle’s postseason run.
Meanwhile, reliever Andrés Muñoz will need to undergo surgery on his foot, Dipoto said (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Muñoz pitched through whatever discomfort had been bothering him and didn’t spend any time on the injured list this season. He was also called upon by skipper Scott Servais in all three games of the ALDS.
Dipoto didn’t provide many specifics about either player’s surgeries, although there’s no indication either is expected to be hampered by next Spring Training. Winker figures to get an opportunity to again cement himself as the organization’s primary left fielder. Acquired from the Reds as part of a deal that saw the M’s assume the remainder of Eugenio Suárez’s contract, Winker had a tough debut season in the Pacific Northwest.
He hit .219/.344/.344 through 547 plate appearances. An excellent 15.4% walk rate was enough to prop up slightly above-average offensive production overall, but it was markedly below his .292/.392/.552 combined line from 2020-21. Paired with subpar defensive marks in left field, Winker rated right around replacement level. Seattle signed the 29-year-old to a two-year contract to avoid arbitration in June. He’ll make $8.25MM in 2023 and hit free agency at the end of the year.
Muñoz, on the other hand, should be a fixture on the roster for quite some time. The M’s signed the hard-throwing righty to a $7.5MM guarantee last offseason on the heels of two seasons mostly lost to Tommy John surgery. They tacked on an extra three seasons of potential club control, through 2028, a move that looks excellent after the 23-year-old returned with 65 innings of 2.49 ERA ball this season. Muñoz punched out an otherworldly 38.7% of opposing hitters on the back of a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider and he now looks like one of the best late-game weapons in the sport.
In other injury updates, Dipoto announced that backstop Cal Raleigh was headed to see a specialist after tearing a ligament in his left thumb (via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It isn’t clear if he’ll eventually have to undergo surgery. Star center fielder Julio Rodríguez played through a small finger fracture at the end of the year. Neither seems to be in danger of missing any time at the start of next season.
Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen
After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.
Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.
In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.
Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.
However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).
The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.
For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.
Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ‘old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.
Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.
Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen‘s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.
It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.
As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).
Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5 Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.