A big bat joined the free agent market last week when the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted Munetaka Murakami for MLB clubs. The 25-year-old bashed 246 home runs in eight NPB seasons, including a single-season record 56 in 2022. Murakami is behind only Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette among hitters in our Top 50 Free Agents list.
Murakami isn’t without flaws, as contact and defense are question marks. The slugger has posted strikeout rates above 28% in each of the past three seasons. Murakami would be strikeout-prone if he did that in the big leagues, but in the typically lower-strikeout NPB, it’s a bit alarming. Third base has been Murakami’s home in recent years, but he might not stick at the position long-term. Scouts grade him as a middling defender who might be better suited for first base or DH.
Even with some red flags, there’s an expectation that Murakami is going to garner offers well into the nine figures. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM pact. So who will take the plunge? Here’s a look at some of the options:
Dodgers
Any time a notable free agent is discussed, the free-spending Dodgers will be in the conversation. That’s especially true when the player in question is coming over from Japan, as Los Angeles already boasts Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki. The fit, however, is less than ideal. The Dodgers have Ohtani plugged into the DH spot on a daily basis. Freddie Freeman will hold down first base through 2027. The Dodgers picked up Max Muncy’s club option and will have him at third base again next year, barring a trade. Murakami did make a start in the outfield this past season, so maybe that would be an avenue for the Dodgers to make it work, but it’d be surprising to see him signed and plugged into the outfield on a full-time basis.
Mets
We know Steve Cohen has no problem opening up the checkbook. The Mets are a fairly straightforward fit if they choose not to re-sign Pete Alonso, who opted out last week. The team has Mark Vientos and Brett Baty penciled in at the corners right now, though neither has run away with past opportunities. Ronny Mauricio will also factor into that mix. The Mets don’t have a firm option at DH either, so there’s room to add a hitter with Murakami’s profile. President of baseball operations David Stearns was spotted scouting Murakami in person this year (though several other high-profile executives did the same, so he’s hardly unique in that regard).
Yankees
The Yankees seem more likely to add on the pitching side, but they can never be ruled out in these types of free agent scenarios. Like the Dodgers, the fit for New York isn’t seamless. Ben Rice put together a breakout 2025 campaign and should be a fixture at first base, though he also made some starts at catcher last season. Ryan McMahon was acquired midseason to sure up the third base spot. Giancarlo Stanton is planted at DH. George Lombard Jr. could factor into the infield calculus soon. As with the Dodgers, the Yankees could try to make room for Murakami with a trade (e.g. McMahon, Rice), but this isn’t a clean fit as the roster is currently constructed.
Red Sox
Boston is a decent fit, especially after Alex Bregman opted out. Nathaniel Lowe is likely to be non-tendered. Masataka Yoshida, frequently manning the DH spot, has been a subject of trade speculation for the past year. Triston Casas is returning from a significant knee injury. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t exactly hand Casas the job when he gets back. “I don’t think it makes a ton of sense on October 6 to say someone is or isn’t our first baseman. We’ll see how things play out,” Breslow told reporters shortly after the season ended. A small move or two could free up space for Murakami at DH or a corner infield spot.
Cubs
The Cubs got a strong season from first baseman Michael Busch and have Matt Shaw holding down third base, though DH reps could be available depending on the plan for Moises Ballesteros. And it’s not like Shaw staked his claim to the hot corner permanently, with a .669 OPS in his rookie campaign. The Cubs are known to be in the market for rotation and bullpen help this winter, but they’ve won high-profile bidding on Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga in recent offseasons.
Blue Jays
The Jays are typically at least in the mix for every prominent free agent in a given offseason these days. They haven’t reeled in many of the highest-profile names they’ve pursued in recent offseasons, but they’re coming off a run to Game 7 of the World Series. That gives them some extra financial resources and also makes a compelling selling point to free agents who want to be sure they’re joining a contender. Toronto has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. installed at first base. George Springer will likely get the bulk of the DH reps in 2026 but is a free agent next offseason. Murakami could split time between third base, first base and DH in ’26, with Addison Barger playing right field on days he’s at the hot corner and Guerrero getting a DH breather on days when Murakami is at first base.
Padres
The Padres regularly find themselves in the bidding for star players — both established MLB names and high-profile talents making the jump from overseas. They’ve got Gavin Sheets likely to hold down first base or designated hitter but lack a clear option otherwise. The Padres have been scaling back payroll in recent years, which makes this a tougher fit, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could always find a creative means of opening some financial wiggle room on the trade market.
Angels
The Angels have no real answer at third base, where Anthony Rendon is finally entering the final season of his contract. Yoan Moncada and Luis Rengifo are free agents. First baseman Nolan Schanuel has held his own but hasn’t been an impact hitter. The DH spot is clogged up thanks to the glut of corner outfielders on the roster (Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, Jorge Soler), but the Halos could feasibly deal one of Ward or Adell. This would be the biggest swing they’ve taken in free agency since signing Rendon to his ill-fated deal, but there’s a fit and Trout is only real long-term commitment left on the books. Only Trout and Yusei Kikuchi are signed beyond 2026 (and only Trout is signed beyond ’27).
The field
Given Murakami’s rare blend of youth, power and overseas track record, we could see a dark horse candidate emerge for his services. In terms of production, the Nationals, Cubs, Reds and Pirates ranked bottom four in OPS at third base, while the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins and Giants brought up the rear at first base. San Francisco made a splash in the international market recently, landing Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM deal ahead of the 2024 season. It’s just hard to see where Murakami would play, assuming Bryce Eldridge has a significant role next season. It’s also possible a smaller-market team could step up and pursues Murakami as a potential face of the franchise.
Where do MLBTR readers think Murakami will land this offseason? Cast your vote in the poll below:
perfect fit for the mariners
Munetaka Murakami hit .095 when facing pitches 93 MPH or harder.
He struck out at a rate of 41.7% when facing those types of pitches as well.
No thank you.
I can see it now: throw him two fastballs at 98mph, and then he will continue to chase the splitter after the bottom falls out of it.
Buckner, that’s an amazing and telling stat. Let’s’, why chance it? Just throw another fastball, this one, higher and slightly out of the zone.
You have to see how he responds to seeing more of them. He will most likely adjust. That says it’s a huge risk.
Slider speed bat…..Perfect for Rockies
Buckner that’s scary. Is the velo that big of difference in NPB vs MLB I know they have very good pitching there but here it seems like everyone on the hill throws mid upper 90s ….thanks for the input also Bill Buckner was my favorite cub when I was young kid very underrated player IMHO
The avg fastball in NBP is low 90s. 92-94 I believe. The problem with not seeing many fastballs is they are harder to catch up to. The big question is can he adjust? I would guess he has a pitching machine and live pitchers throwing a ton of fastballs to him daily.
With the new machines they can throw 2 fastballs then a slider with no adjustments. It can be programmed into the machine.
It all depends on what he gets in money. Does Seattle want a 28% k rate with avg or worse D or a GG caliber defender that won’t hit a ton of HRs but will hit for avg. I don’t believe in the 3rd BM needs to hit 30 HRs a year. If other positions are doing that then 3rd would be better off striking out less with a higher OBP.
If we can sign Naylor and use Williamson at 3rd until Emerson is ready. I thought he might fit here but not anymore. Talked myself into Williamson/Emerson at 3rd.
As a Red Sox fan I think he would be PERFECT for the NY Yankees. An over priced DH who can’t hit a fastball is most defo what the Yankees need right now!
teehee teehee 🙂
Well as NYY fan, please do bring him here. Definitely want him smacking bombs into the short porch. No brainer with that talent. 😉
As a Yankee fan, I would say the outfield and relief pitching is more of a priority than 3rd for 2026.
I disagree. If we bring back Bellinger we’ll be fine in the OF (assuming we try to bring Jones up with Jasson) and I don’t think we’re shopping the high end on RP this offseason. Bednar has Closer locked imo, and we have some other pieces. So need to add? Yes. Priority? Eh. SP is a bigger area of concern with multiple pitchers starting on the IL so I expect a decent signing there. But after being supplanted in the playoffs, I dont see McMahon as the solution at 3rd despite his excellent defense. Murakami can move between 1st, 3rd, and heck maybe a little OF as well. Rice can move between 1st and C and you can still toggle in Ryan at 3rd.
The Dodgers will sign him for 26 million, with a 10 million signing bonus over 8 years with 150 million deferred from 2026-2047
This way the yankees can spend on pitching and bringing back Belli and Grisham
You don’t think the Mariners won’t at least do their due diligence and make a fair offer?
They’re trying to get Naylor back. It’s not clear whether they’ll pony up the dough for him, although I hope they do. This site has Naylor pegged at around $90 million over 5 years, while they think Murukami is looking at $180m over 8 years.
Those are two different stratospheres.
They can do all the due diligence they want, but they’ve shown no willingness to spend anything close to Murukami’s expected contract.
Expected by this site, not by all.
Where have you seen that predicts Murakami getting less than $180 million. Several including 2 different articles in the Athletic pointed towards $200 milion as the number he is expected to get.
Kiley McDaniel has him only getting 5/$80m. That feels like the Mariners could do that for a 26 year old.
What is the answer to his not so far showing an ability to hit a fastball? Unless there is an obvious fix that his current team has missed or ignored, I don’t see him getting anything close to $180m. I hadn’t read his stats against upper heat pitching but if it’s accurate, I don’t see it in MLB. Too many hard throwers today.
If we sign him we block Emerson/Celesten. One will take over SS then the other is trade bait. I prefer Emerson/Williamson at 3rd and Celesten at short. A lot less money and we will be mostly homegrown players. Not sure how long Randy will be here but Montes will be ready at some point. I know people are down on him. We shall see. We will also have a few more in a couple years. Besides Naylor the only real issue I see is BP. If we can get a couple more arms one a lefty I will be happy.
You understand you’re building the entire future of the Mariners on prospects? It’s highly improbable that all three of Montes, Emerson, and Celesten all stick in the majors at a high enough level to start, let alone be difference makers.
One more reason I don’t read or watch ESPN. Yoshida got 5/90 with not nearly the same level of power at 29 years old instead of Muraklami’s 25, so that prediction is just stupid. If Murakami goes for less than $120 million I will dance a jig in the middle of Katella in my underwear during rush hour.
This site underestimated nearly every major FA contract last season and they have him at 8/$180 million while MLB Network consensus on Hot Stove and MLB Now is around 8/$200 million. Nikkan Sports, a Japanese publication, said “Bidding war for Munetaka Murakami expected to surpass $200M” nikkansports.com/baseball/news/202510060001200.htm… RJ anderson at CBS Sports, who was under on all ten of the top ten FA last year, predicted 6/140. A higher AAV than this site’s 8/180. At the Athletic Tim Britton is predicting 8/158.5. Mark Feinsand predicted that he would surpass Alex Bregman’s contract. The Caesar’s Sportsbook over/under on his contract opened at $129.5 million when he was posted and is now at $159.5 million with the Dodgers the even money favorites. I took the over.
ANY team could do 5/80 which is exactly why he won’t go for anywhere close to that little.
I think the ESPN list is low all around. But it has been put out there. And there just seems to be a lot of talking this guy down in the media and now fan circles. Kiley McDaniel does talk to execs to get his feel and they certainly aren’t going to be putting new high precedents out there for the market in general. But even just scaled to other lists, he’s lower on Murakami than other players. I don’t know. I found it a good read for context even if I thought the contract terms were light for a lot of the players.
They will know if the guys are going to make it within the next few years. If they won’t stick they can trade them and move on. This isn’t the only time a Japanese slugger will be on the board or an upgrade at the position they need. While I am overly positive on the prospect I am not totally dumb. I am thinking Celesten might be the failure of the group. Not sure if he has the drive to make it. Colt I am pretty sure will make it and could be our SS. There are a lot of OF prospects in the system so there should be a couple winners there. Will we have to trade for or sign as a FA? There is that chance we shall see. It would be cool to say most of our team is made up of homegrown talent. 8 of the 9 in the field. I am hoping they sign Naylor for 5 years. The other 8 would be homegrown.
They have said that they will be around the same payroll as last season which gives them about $25 million to spend total. I would think that precludes a Murakami offer. I could be wrong though. I am an Angels fan, not a Mariners fan. I kinda hope they do sign him. His SO% is going to be outrageous in MLB. Gallo-like.
They have some serious cash coming off the books in 2026 – Garver ($12.5M) / Haniger ($14.5M) / Polonco ($7.0M). Plus they need to figure out if Arozarena is worth a projected $17.M, They also should look at flipping Castillo who is on the books for $24.1M They have the ability to finally fix their corner infield with both Naylor and Murakami. Plus the intangible of the added revenue potential with a Japanese star player.
Mariners is definitely a good shout though i see the other Japanese player coming here more. I think Murakami will be too pricey for them.
Phillies.
Padres, they need all the help they can get
The Padres aren’t spending what it will take to sign Murakami when they need that money for their biggest need, pitching.
Plus I think they already have a guy that plays a fairly sufficient 3B.
The Padres biggest need is pitching. They just lost King, Cease, and Darvish. If they are spending big money, that would seem like a more important place to spend it.
Machado won the 2025 NL Silver Slugger at 3B. His 2nd straight year to win that award and he is under contract for a very long time. They don’t have a need at 3B.
They do have a hole at 1B or DH with Arraez gone, but I doubt they are going to invest $180 million in an unproven product for 1B. Too many other options that would be cheaper like Naylor, O’Hearn, and Bellinger.
No, there are other teams that are much more likely to sign Murakami.
Is Darvish retiring because I thot they extended him?
Darvish had UCL brace surgery.
Murakami would play first for the Padres but I don’t see them paying him. These contracts numbers being thrown out also don’t include his money they would have to pay to his former team.
While the article says the padres have been scaling down payroll in recent years. That doesn’t actually lineup with what they spent last year. Payroll went up last year. It wasn’t at an all time high but was above 2024 payroll. So how are they scaling down payroll in recent years if it went up just last year. By a decent amount at that.
Padres payroll next year could very well be above 2025. Does that mean the next article will say the Padres payroll has been scaling up?
That would be two straight years of payroll scaling up.
The Padres were just below the third tier of the CBT at $270 million. I would not think they would go over that, but then I didn’t think they would spend as much as they have been. Other than the one year they reset the CBT, the Padres have consistently spent more than anyone other than the team itself has said they would and the baseball media keeps saying they have payroll issues.
What is the line from Princess Bride? “You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means”.
That applies well to the way the baseball media keeps describing the Padres payroll situation.
Simm, Their payroll number went up mostly because of arbitration raises and backloaded contracts. Their big signing last season was Nick Pivetta, whose deal was severely backloaded at $1.75M in 2025, with almost $54M divided about equally over the next 3 years.
They also signed Elias Diaz and his deal was also backloaded at $1.5M in 2025, with $7M owed for 2026. As was Kyle Hart’s deal at $1M for 2025 and $5M in 2026. Their other signings were Jason Heyward and Connor Joe each at 1/$1M.
So their new signings resulted in $6.25M paid out for 2025. Clearly they backloaded the deals for Pivetta, Diaz, and Hart for when other existing deals come off the books.
Their spending next season next season will increase by @28M based on their backloaded deals.
It certainly doesn’t look to me like they want to increase payroll. It looks more like managing it with the preferred goal of reducing it, or at best maintaining the level of payroll without increases.
Doesn’t really matter how it increased. The facts that it did increase by pretty decent margin means it did increase. That’s just the opposite of it decreasing
*Their spending next season next season will increase by $28M (not @28M).
Which coincidentally is almost what’s coming off the books with the departures of Cease and King, which is $28.75M.
It absolutely does matter how it increased. Those are all legacy deals courtesy of Peter Seidler. The backloaded deals are beyond their control. The new controlling owner inherited all those deals and have no choice but to honor them.
The arb raises are also basically beyond their control. They could consider non-tendering players instead of paying any arb raise, but those are valuable assets since they’re guys under team control. Those arb eligible players also predate the change in the controlling owner.
So the new controlling owner is dealing with costs created by a different administration. How they’re operating now is clearly different from what they did when Seidler was running things, but the impact of what he did is still being felt.
Nobody expects them to spend up to the levels they did at peak Peter levels. That would be 2023. They were right about 2022 levels last year and will be in that range again this year.
If the new chairman didn’t want to spend to that level he could require Preller to scale down. Like they did in 2024.
Not all of the arbguys are from Peter. Miller and Fermin are both arb guys they acquired last deadline. They also added laureano who they knew had an option. Now none of this is a big add but pivetta who was added last year now being paid 19m. That’s nearly 30m in new payroll added last year to this year.
Now with that said they had a good amount of money come off the books this year. It does seem like the 210ish number is about what they felt they could spend a year ago. Likely not much changed this year. Ticket offices went up again this season. Maybe that will add more revenue, maybe not, pending attendance numbers this season.
The lack of a tv deal is still prohibiting from going much higher. They could move a number of guys if they really had to. They have 3 contracts that are basically unmovable…Manny, Xander and Darvish. Though all but Darvish could even be moved if they paid them down. Of course there are some no trade issues in there as well.
Point being payroll did scale down in 2024 and up in 2025. Likely will be around the same in 2026. Wouldn’t consider that scaling down.
Much of what you say is true, except that I think the Pivetta deal is evidence that they’re trying to manage spending to keep it low. Yes, Fermin and Miller were added, but they have 8 arb-eligible players, so most were acquired under previous leadership.
My point was Padres’ fans have been conflating payroll, and spending. Those are 2 different things. The major part of the payroll was established under Peter Seidler’s leadership. While spending is what they’re currently committing to with new signings/acquisitions.
The spending for new players in 2025 was the $6.25M for Pivetta, Diaz, Hart, Heyward, and Joe. Add the prorated salaries of Laureano, about $1.3M, and Fermin, and Miller, both at about about $240K each, comes to about $8.03M plus or minus a couple 100K. That’s what the spending was for 2025, regardless of what the payroll was.
The fact that they paid Pivette $1M last season and will pay $19M in 2026 clearly seems to be linked to Cease and King coming off the payroll. That says to me they’re not going to be spending anywhere near big for this coming season, otherwise they wouldn’t have backloaded the deals of Pivetta, Diaz, and Hart.
New spending vs old spending adds up to total spending.
It’s the total amount that matters.
Nobody believes the padres are gonna go out and add an additional 100m to this years payroll. Most Padres fans think it will be around 20-30m in additional payroll for 2026. That’s from the current state.
Which will put them in the same level payroll amount as last season. Give or take a few million. That doesn’t lineup with the cost cutting narrative that’s constantly thrown out there.
They clearly have limitations just like most of the league does. Nobody really knows the max limit but it’s safe to assume something close to last years total. Unless they decide to trade a guy like Tatis there really aren’t many options to bring payroll down. Which has been the media narrative.
Of course the total matters. But many Padres’ fans get defensive when MLBTR suggests they’re reducing spending. They are reducing spending, and have been. The preset factors determining the level of payroll is not evidence that they aren’t.
What they’ve spent since Seidler’s passing, and how much they’ll spend in the future are the determinants of their spending, not what the payroll is. That is not until more of the players come off the payroll that were acquired while Seidler was running the team.
If they spend anything notable this season, I’ll gladly admit to being wrong. Despite being a Giants’ fan, I root for them (along with the M’s), to win their first WS. I wouldn’t mind being proved wrong, but I don’t think I am.
You are saying spending as in new contracts vs actual payroll. Many padres FANS take offense to the language writers here commonly say which in this case is lowering payroll. That would mean overall payroll is going down which it didn’t last year and likely won’t this year.
If they said the padres may not have a lot left in the budget to spend this offseason that would be harder to argue with. Saying reducing payroll is just not true outside of 1 year in the last several.
In Kevin Acee article today he said the padres payroll was around d 214m last year and 223m after tax penalties. That’s considerably more payroll than in 2024. So saying they have been reducing payroll in recent years when last year was the most recent is bad writing. That’s what we are talking about…doesn’t matter how and when that payroll was spent. If the new chairman wanted to reduce payroll they would have.
I’m good with that explanation. It is a serious shortcoming for MLBTR to refer to reducing payroll when the payroll is not being reduced. The payroll for any particular season is not the same as the spending for that season. They should know that. I agree, and I’d probably take offense as well.
Reducing payroll would mean trading or releasing players. That would be shortsighted on management’s part with the talent on the team and them being a contender as is. For the sake of Padres’ fans, I’m glad to see that isn’t the case.
Totally agree with that.
Think what drives padres fans nuts is this narrative has been driven into the ground since the 23’/24’ offseason which was the case that year. This is how two off seasons later after not continuing the shedding of payroll at least not yet this offseason. In which there is no reasonable reporting saying they will shed payroll this year.
I also believe dont quote me that the padres were in the top 5 last year in payroll increases. Which once again debunks the reducing payroll narrative in recent years. I get a lot of it was internal raises but up it went never the less.
royals. move garcia to cf and Isbel to LF
Came here for the Dodgers comments. Sorely disappointed thus far.
Comments must be deferred
🙂
BOOM
-5/10
Klink is George Brett pine tar incident level mad right now lol
He shouldn’t join the Dodgers. There’s no spot for him. Can’t put him at DH, can’t put him at 1st, and can’t put him at 3rd. Give me the Guardians or Reds. He would hit bombs in either of those ballparks
I’m in no way saying I want the Dodgers to sign him but there is a spot for him. Muncy is on his last leg, Freeman is aging so they could make a move
I like him to either New York team. They want in on the Japanese market. Dodgers are a bit crowded
Muncy is on a cheap 1 year contract and has played a total of 156 games in the past 2 seasons. He would not block Murakami. Freeman is 37 and only under contract through 2027. The Dodgers have a spot and a need for Murakami.
There is no chance whatsoever that either the Reds or Guardians are spending that much money on any player.
What about Alex Freeland? I’d rather have him in all honesty.
Not to mention Hyeseong Kim, Kike (assuming he gets resigned), Rojas, you get the idea
70 OPS+ for Freeland, 72 OPS+ for Kike, and 95 OPS+ with no power for Kim, and 100 OPS+ with no power for Rojas. dodgers are shooting higher than average or below average
Dodgers could make it work. He is young enough to be apart of the future. Wonder if they would trade Muncy. Be tough to move him though given they picked up his option and he is a big part of that team.
The Mariners have needs at both corners. The D’backs kind of do as well. Third Base has been an issue in Detroit. Miami needs a power bat at one of the corners (though they are not likely to actually be players here). The Orioles have need at 1B/DH. The Reds need a bat and have 1B/DH AB’s to give. The Pirates need a Third Baseman. The A’s have an immediate need at 3B but, Fisher…
He may well fit on any or of all those teams, but few if any of those teams have shown a willingness to throw around $180m.
Especially $180MM on a guy who has never played in a major league game.
In a matter of parity, the NPB has a “foreign player rule” that states no more than 2 per team. Perhaps MLB could adopt something akin to this instead of allowing one team to run roughshod over the League? Idk, just spitballin’ here… and that’s much better than Cornballin’ with the Bluths!
What qualifies as a “foreign player”? Non-Americans? Most rosters would be gutted by such a rule.
I know C-Daddy, just poking the bear. But if MLB can force the Padres to spend less, why can’t they do that to the Dodgers? Food for thought.
Gwynn – You made me look up “cornballing” and I wish I didn’t ….. because the first thing that came up was the Urban Dictionary definition, yikes!!
Right now on average there are 7 foreign players per MLB team. I don’t see MLB going for any type of limit, because they are making a ton of money by promoting MLB through international players. It’s not like Japan is promoting their game by allowing foreigners to play there.
I think an international draft is still the way to go.
youtu.be/1WDW8XKEGgU?si=6ekKF9F86_sJBxqF
Safe link to what I referred to… haha
More AD drops moving forward please
The more the merrier! 🤙🏽
Gwynning, I’ve been suggesting changes in the next CBA like what you mentioned. Hopefully the MLBPA will be on board although I doubt it.
Mariners need an everyday third baseman and the Mariners will be World Series champions in 2026.
Sacramento
I understand Murakami could be Joey Gallo bad, but given his upside, id be shocked if he doesn’t get at least 150 million. If Murakami was a sure thing, we would be talking about 400m at a minimum, this sort of lefty pop just isnt available often.
I dont see the Dodgers paying that much when they’d have to play him out of position in LF or get rid of Muncy.
Stearns has gone to Japan personally to scout him, I dont think hes doing that if they didnt already really like him. Seattle has an advantage in geography, but he fits with both NY teams, and they have enough money to make that a moot point.
Hey, if we want to talk about prodigious LH power – let’s talk about Russell Branyan.
The G.O.A.T
Stearns has never spent big dollars on a 1B that I can recall. Alonso has been the most. If Alonso doesn’t return do you really see him spending that on Murakami? I don’t.
It was reported that Stearns made a trip to Japan during the NPB season but not that he even saw the Swallows play. Do you have anymore info on that?
I would think Stearns would be more interested in Tatsuya Imai.
It was all over Twitter when he went there, dont think I can link outside sources, but if you google “Stearns Japan Murakami” you should find a bleacher report article from Aug 12 containing the tweets of him being at the stadium Murakami was playing at that day
Also, while Stearns hasnt historically spent big money on 1B, we dont really have a track record of how he spends in a market like this, and he has spent money on poor defensive 3B in Milwaukee, but that was before the shift rules.
I’m not coming down on either side of this conversation, but Stearns did give Alonso $54 million (1 year deal, 2nd year player option). So, $27 million.
I’d say that’s a lot.
It’s also not his money, it’s Steve Cohen’s money.
Dodgers will pretend to want him so that the Yanks will be vigorously sniffing his jock strap but it will be the hapless, directionless Mets that will take the bait and regret it for the length of his wasted contract,
So…. same ‘ole, same ‘ole
I say it’s either the Mets if they move on from Pete or the Mariners if they don’t sign Naylor. But I could be wrong, it’s hard to read this one.
Mets wont even sniff him.
The Mets seem like a fit but I think they need a righty bat. Perhaps if they sign Alonso or Bergman but adding him with one of these dudes is a lot of money. Especially when they will also want pitching.
It will depend on how much the Dodgers want him. If they want him they of course will get him. The Mets are 2nd in line followed by the Yankees.
I can’t see too many teams jumping at the opportunity to hand 6 years and $150MM to a 1B/DH with major concerns facing velocity. Plus he’s not a good fit for most of the big spenders. The Mets seem like the most logical fit but Alonso will probably be their plan A. I think Murakami picked a bad year to be posted
Yeah it’s hard to find a clear fit for him amongst the big spenders.
Can make a case for the Mets, Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox and Phillies. At the same time one can make a case that all these teams could go another direction. I think the Mets and Red Sox could use a righty power bat. Dodgers don’t actually need him next season. Yankees could use him but have other options. So maybe the Phillies are the best fit if they lose schwarber.
Guards FTW!!!
Yankees an upgrade over Stanton IMO. Let’s go Yankees!!!
Giants.
Bryce Eldridge is getting traded this offseason. Posey and Co scouted Murakami extensively and I know there’s strong interest.
Murakami will act as DH primarily and fill in at either corner when Chapman or Devers need a day off. The Giants know they need to start paving ways in new markets and have done so in Korea with Lee. Have a strong presence in Venezuela. And lately in DR with Gonzales and soon to be Hernandez both the #1 intl draft prospects last year and this year.
If the Giants miss out on Murakami look for them to possibly pivot to Schwarber or Alonso.
But what do I know; I’m just a kid?
Mariners, but sayonara Naylor!
Royals they shock everyone.
If this guy cannot hit a fastball better than he did in 2025, he will flop MASSIVELY in MLB. He hit .095 against pitches over 93 MPH in 2025. That will not get it done in the majors, I don’t care how many times you walk.
Hi flew …what is the average of MLB player hitting of 93mph plus? I’m just spit balling here but if in today’s game according to some that batting average is not a good guide to judge a hitter for whatever reason. It gets very confusing especially early morning before my 2nd pot of coffee lol but I agree that stat is very concerning….will be interesting to see what happens….I do love the idea of him hitting in Yankees stadium….
none of the big market usual suspects have a positional need or really need him at the projected salary. Mariners are the best fit – west coast, clear need – but Naylor is the obvious fit.
i don’t see how Murikami gets anything near the projected salary given his strike out profile.
in this analytic focused era, he maybe disappointed at how the clubs value him.
Is 2025 a “recent year”? Because the Padres payroll increased between 2024 and 2025, it didn’t decrease.
Brew, they keep running that line and the Padres just keep spending more. I think that on Hot Stove this morning they said the Padres were one of 5 teams to increase payroll this past season. MLBTradeRumors seems to have missed that.
2025 seems fairly recent. Didn’t the Dodgers win the world series in 2025?
Couldn’t help myself.
oh shush now Another. congrats though
Brew- 100% but this site always says that.
I think there is a good chance the Padres payroll goes up again in 2026 unless they trade Tatis which I highly doubt.
It was really just 2024 in “recent years” that the padres payroll went down. Think that’s the only year in the last 6 seasons the padres payroll has gone down. Think it was around 250ish million in 2023. They brought it down in 2024, reset the tax and also had their owner die. So lots of reason to reduce payroll in 2024. 250m is likely a little too high for them consistently but it did go back up to 214m in 2025.
Cash payroll peaked in 2023. $50MM higher than last season’s level and $100MM more than 2024. That big dip in 2024 is obviously framing the general media comments. They did give up more trade capital for opposing clubs to pay salaries down & the way they structured contracts last offseason.
They spent roughly the same on last year’s roster as they did in 2022. I doubt they go back to the 2023 level but I’d expect a number north of 200.
Preller is going to need every dollar of that w/ his current rotation.
@Baltimore Merely consistent with the well-advertised effort in 2024 to reset on the CBT. Most top 10 payroll teams attempt to reset, even LAD 3 years ago. But 2025 is more “recent” than 2025, which was my point. And as Simms explained, payroll likely to go up in 2026 (from 2025). Remember this is an article about prospective buyers in 2026 free agency, not who reset on CBT 2 years ago and why. That said I don’t expect the Pads to spend on expensive bats, more likely on SP however.
Regardless of the exact dollar amount, Padres are trying to win the NL West.
Everyone gets so caught up on the money when there are so many other factors that go into winning.
Pretty likely the padres will have to spend to add this year though. They don’t have a Soto to cut payroll & get assets back. Either that or they’ll have to find a team that’s looking for prospects that are further off.
@Baltimore. I’m not sure of the exact number currently but there is a sizeable chunk of the 2025 payroll coming off the books for the Pads, with Cease, Suarez, Arraez, King, O’ Hearn and others leaving for FA. Plus they get out from under the Hosmer contract (finally). Last I checked payroll is now about $65M less than end of season this year, and the biggest holes to fill are SP ( likely 2), a 1B\DH power bat, and perhaps another Util IF. The emphasis as per AJ Preller’s comments last week will be SP, which makes sense.
Brew- payroll which varies by site is anywhere from 178-190m already for next year.
They did have a lot money come off the books (like 70) but had some increases in arb’s, manny’s money and Pivetta going up ate a lot of the savings. Plus the option of Ramon which was a cheap 6.5m.
They likely have 25-30m still to spend in order to reach last years number.
It’s at ~$190 if they tender Adam. That’ll save $6.5MM off the tab if they don’t. It’s going to be tough again for Preller. He’ll have to find another Pivetta bargain and replace Arraez (or re-up) at a minimum.
Will see what happens. My guess is he will work the trade market for a player or two who aren’t paid much.
Nobody knows how much he is actually going to be working with. I can see an increase is payroll next year. Not a big increase but an increase none the less.
Thanks both of you for clarifying the $
Phillies are going to sign Big M and “wentz” Alec Bohm.
it’s not like Shaw staked his claim to the hot corner permanently
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Yes, he has.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. He had a 3.1 bWAR in only 393 ABs. He had an .839 OPS in the second half. He can run. he can field. He has the pedigree of being the #13 pick and a top-30 prospect.
In what universe is he not the starting 3B for the Cubs? I’d make a decent-sized wager he has a higher bWAR than Munetaka next year.
The Cubs actually value infield defense too. There’s is one of the best in baseball with Shaw, Hoerner, and Swanson.
Shaw’s 12 DRS at 3B is about as good as it gets on defense. Even his FRV is league average. He is not hurting the Cubs on defense.
I put murakami on the cubs in the fa prediction contest but it was basically just a random dice roll with a bit of speculative logic because I couldn’t find a clear fit elsewhere with how I did the rest of my picks lol. Literally the last pick i made.
Basically my thought process was that the cubs need a power bat with Kyle tucker leaving if they want to make a serious run and they have potential fa departures for happ and Suzuki looming at the end of 2026. They have flexibility with the dh spot and Shaw can also mix in at 2nd on occasion. If even one regular bat in the corner/dh or infield mix goes down with a substantial injury the on paper roster logjam clears itself up in a hurry. So I figured it was reasonably conceivable that they could make it work for a single season mixing and matching even if they get the best possible development outcomes out of shaw in his second season, which is by no means a given. I’m not confidently predicting it will happen but I do think that’s a reasonable rationale on how it could work if they love the bat enough to go get him.
Q: Who will sign expensive free agent?
A: An itemized list of the most wealthy clubs.
Why does this site have to bring up Mets as a potential team repeatedly for Murakami?
Mets do not need to sign a poor defensive third baseman only to then convert him to first base. Then risk that his high strikeout hitting and struggle against higher velocity pitches acclimates to MLB.
All at a price that will not be too far from what Pete would ask. Why?
I think because there have been reports that the Mets are happy to let Pete go unless he comes in at lower than his asking price. Which is exactly how they approached him last year.
Also because they have been pretty aggressive in pursuit of prime aged free agents. They really wanted Yamamoto. They did get Soto. They are a big budget team that seems to be prioritizing a longer view. Still trying to win now, but with sustainability in mind.
If they don’t want to pay Pete his asking price, would the Mets exceed that in years and total guarantee to sign Murakami? I highly doubt it.
Maybe. Like with Yamamoto and Soto, they’re willing to throw big money around on players who have the majority of their prime ages in front of them.
There’s enough evidence to include them in the poll at any rate. You can make plenty of points for why any player might not be plan A, but still not be able to rule them out of that player’s market.
Maybe in a world where they really like Murakami and think he can play 3B in the short term, they’re willing to sign him and trade Baty for pitching. And they wait out Alonso again and bring him back on a short term deal with the expectation that Murakami move to 1B when Alonso’s contract is over. You can’t predict an exact series of moves like that, but it’s still possible.
struggle against higher velocity pitches acclimates to MLB
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I have a big issue with that stat. If he can’t hit a FB, then no one would throw him anything else but a FB, and his stats would be awful. It could be an issue at the higher velos, but that’s true for many hitters.
My guess is that this argues for a shorter contract so he doesn’t from bat speed declines.
I was thinking he’d be a prime candidate for the kind of structure the cubs gave Shota. Where the team can opt in to X dollars after a couple years but he has a player option if they decline.
Feels like a Yanks move to me
He’s kinda young for the Yankees. They like their guys to have a few gray whiskers.
News flash. It won’t be the Detroit Tigers.
” The Padres have been scaling back payroll in recent years,”
Wasn’t their 2025 payroll substantially more than their 2024 payroll, like almost $50mil more? How does that lead you to believe they are scaling back their payroll?
Pirates!
I checked his Fangraphs projection for 2026 and it’s terrible: OPS .625.
Ryan Clifford, Mets top 1B prospect is projected for a .675 OPS.
And current top 1B candidate Mark Vientos is projected for .767 OPS.
Obviously these are not going to be that close in all likelihood, but still, Mets shouldn’t sign him.
Mariners…
I voted the Angels because of their needs at third base and less likely to demand a high performer there. Also an Asian friendly franchise. West coast. And he’s not a Boras client so he will be better established for trade through there.
Great pick. Halos have a long history of choking. This seems like the perfect fit.
He will be a Met. Pete Alonso will sign with the Red Sox.
Not the Cubs. Team needs more contact types. Not guys that hit .086 vs 93+ MPH. Which is most of MLB level pitching. n
This has bust written all over it
Sorry Yanks fans who think Cashman is salivating at the prospect of fitting yet another square peg into a round hole that they didn’t need in the first place. He saves those moves for ST. Besides, what he loves more than even that is avoiding going too far over the highest tax threshold as per his step-brother-in-life; they hate-hate-hate paying taxes and revenue-sharing more than their own icons who don’t tow the company line.
I’m really surprised the Mariners havent finally landed another elite Japanese player. I think they and San Francisco nearly always could make themselves viable to the Asian market. Reportedly, the Dodgers have already made Ohtani’s contract back. You’d think that’d trigger all the West Coast teams especially. Stepping into the wake of the burgeoning market in Ohtani’s wake…sounds like good business sense.
Phillies
Padres need power in the order but 30% strikeout rate at that price won’t be happening in San Diego. Too bad Preller never just hangs on long enough for players like James Wood to mature.