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Central Notes: Pirates, Burnett, Cardinals, White Sox

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Pirates GM Neal Huntington has had a lot of ups-and-downs over the course of his tenure in Pittsburgh, but his confidence never wavered, writes Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  “If (Bob Nutting) made a different decision a year ago, I would have walked out the door believing this organization was much better off than when we walked in the door, and believing that they were a few good decisions away from being a playoff-caliber team,” Huntington said. “(I'm) very grateful, very thankful, that we had the opportunity to see the 2013 season to its fruition. My hope is that all it has done is reinforce that commitment and that bond, because we've got a lot of talented people doing a lot of good things.”  Here's more out of the AL and NL Central..

  • A.J. Burnett may prove to be too pricey for the Pirates, but Tom Singer of MLB.com suggests a creative solution to help facilitate a reunion.  The veteran pitcher wants to spend as much time with his family as possible, so Singer wonders if Burnett might be willing to take a page out of Roger Clemens' book and sign with the club in the summer.  That would allow the Bucs to only pay him a prorated portion of the eight-figure deal the pitcher likely seeks.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (via Twitter) that he'd like to trade a young starting pitcher for a "young controllable shortstop."  The Cards have been heavily rumored to be seeking a shortstop to give them an upgrade over Pete Kozma.
  • Jim Margalus of South Side Sox wonders why Paul Konerko's future with the White Sox hasn't been resolved yet.  The slugger struggled through injuries in 2013 and Margalus gets the sense that beat writers are more keen on seeing him return to Chicago than fans.

Beltran Will Reject Qualifying Offer; Wants 3-4 Years

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Carlos Beltran is looking for a three- or four-year contract and will thus turn down the Cardinals' one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer, Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown reports.  Rejecting the qualifying offer will likely mean the end of Beltran's tenure in St. Louis as the Cards aren't likely to meet Beltran's demands when they have younger (and cheaper) outfield options like star prospect Oscar Taveras.

Beltran said during the summer that he hoped to play three or four more seasons, so it makes sense that he would look for a contract that would cover the home stretch of his career and capitalize on his strong performance in both the regular season and postseason.  Though Beltran turns 37 next April, there is enough demand for his services that he could find more than two years.  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles have already been linked to Beltran this offseason and Brown reports that six teams have "varying degrees of interest" in the veteran slugger.  Brown figures the Mets, Phillies and Rangers are also possible suitors, plus any other teams who miss out on Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo.

As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted in his Free Agent Profile of Beltran, players of Beltran's age rarely score contracts of three years or more, and predicted that Beltran would sign a two-year, $30MM deal.  Enough big-market teams are connected to Beltran that a larger deal could be possible, though the draft pick compensation attached to Beltran once he turns down the qualifying offer will also turn some clubs off.

Starting Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Nats, Miller, Tanaka

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The Max Scherzer trade rumors don't make much sense to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, who argues that a Tigers club built to win in 2014 can't afford to move an ace pitcher unless another team makes "an incredibly loony price" in a trade.  The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore hears from a source who flatly denies that Scherzer will be dealt, and Kilgore wonders if the Tigers' alleged willingness to trade may hint at concerns about Scherzer's future performance.

Here are some items about notable arms that could be had via trade or free agency this offseason…

  • The Nationals have the minor league depth to acquire the likes of Scherzer or David Price, Kilgore writes.  It could be more likely that the Nats pursue a younger pitcher who is under control for more years, a la the team's deal for Gio Gonzalez. 
  • Shelby Miller is "an under-the-radar potential [trade] target," a baseball official opines to Kilgore.  Miller pitched just one postseason inning for the Cardinals due to concerns that he had a tired arm, though Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes that were rumors that Miller was really being saved for a possible trade this winter.  I'm not sure if I believe that theory; you'd think the Cards would've had all healthy arms on deck in pursuit of a World Series.
  • The Cubs are interested in Masahiro Tanaka, GM Jed Hoyer told David Kaplan on WGN Radio's The David Kaplan Show (Twitter link).  "He's going to help somebody and we will be in on him," Hoyer said.
  • Matt Sosnick, Josh Johnson's agent, says he has talked to "nearly every team" about his client, including the Rangers, ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett reports.  The Rangers appeal to Johnson due to their winning ways because he lives in nearby Oklahoma, though since Sosnick says Johnson would prefer "at least a pitching-neutral ballpark," Rangers Ballpark might be a hindrance.
  • The Angels' signing of starter Chris Volstad could spell trouble for starters Jerome Williams and Tommy Hanson, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles TImes. Volstad is cheap and young, and DiGiovanna says that the club may not see much difference between him and the club's pricier, pre-existing options. In his breakdown of the Halos' arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes calls Hanson a definite non-tender candidate, and says Williams could also be shown the door.
  • ESPN's Jim Bowden speculates about six possible David Price trades (ESPN Insider subscription required).

MLBTR's Jeff Todd also contributed to this post

Rockies Notes: Tulo, Hudson, Beltran, Johnson

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The Rockies only won 74 games in 2013 but senior VP of baseball operations Bill Geivett believes his club is close to contending.  "We like our core group of guys. We feel like we have a good crew to build around. I know some people disagree, but we don't feel that we are that far away," Geivett tells Troy Renck of the Denver Post, though he noted that the Rockies need Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to be healthy to make this happen.  Here's the latest out of Denver…

  • Geivett again stressed that the Rockies aren't interested in trading Tulowitzki or Gonzalez.  Renck agrees, saying "a dramatic shift would have to occur in their thinking this offseason for trade talks to get going" (Twitter link). 
  • That said, Renck believes the Cardinals will at least "make the call" to gauge interest in Tulowitzki.  Renck notes that it would take several of St. Louis' top prospects to make such a trade plausible.  Earlier today, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal proposed an Allen Craig/Shelby Miller/Trevor Rosenthal package plus a lesser prospect and Colorado paying some of the $130MM remaining on Tulowitzki's salary, though Rosenthal admitted that a Tulowitzki trade is a "longshot."
  • The Rockies are interested in free agent starter Tim Hudson, Renck reports (via Twitter).  This makes Colorado the ninth team known to have an interest in the righty and Renck says "roughly 15 teams" comprise Hudson's market.
  • Carlos Beltran has been a Rockies target in the past and MLB.com's Thomas Harding wouldn't be surprised to see the team attempt to sign the veteran slugger this winter.  Beltran would take over in right while Michael Cuddyer would move to first.
  • Also from Harding, the Rockies are expected to inquire about Josh Johnson.  It doesn't seem like Johnson would be a fit, as since the right-hander is looking for a one-year deal to rebuild his value, he isn't likely to take such a contract at Coors Field.

NL Central Notes: Beltran, Samardzija, Burnett

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Here's tonight's look around the NL Central..

  • Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny says that another club has already made an offer to free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran, tweets Jim Bowden of SiriusXM.  The veteran figures to garner a great deal of interest this winter and it looks like his interest in the Yankees is finally being reciprocated.
  • In a chat with David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com (Twitter link), Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija explained that he is not in a rush to work out an extension.  "I have two more years of arbitration so there is a lot of time to get something done," said Samardzija, who turns 29 in January.
  • Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett remains undecided between retirement or returning to pitch in 2014, agent Darek Braunecker tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). The Bucs opted against extending Burnett a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer yesterday. The veteran pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and a 56.2 percent ground-ball rate in 191 innings in his second season with the Pirates.

Minor Moves: Perez, LaRoche, Nickeas, Cardinals

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Here are today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Blue Jays announced that they outrighted left-hander Juan Perez off the 40-man roster and re-signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. The 35-year-old southpaw posted a 3.69 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 31 2/3 innings for Toronto this season and held lefties to a .200/.280/.333 batting line.
  • The Blue Jays also announced that they've re-signed catcher Mike Nickeas and and infielder Andy LaRoche to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training. Nickeas, 30, posted just a .507 OPS at Triple-A this season while LaRoche, the younger brother of Adam LaRoche, slashed .271/.339/.433 in 104 games at the same level.
  • The Cardinals announced that they have outrighted catcher Rob Johnson, outfielder Brock Peterson and outfielder Adron Chambers off their 40-man roster. Each has elected free agency, per the MLB.com Transactions page. Johnson spent most of the season in Triple-A, but found his way onto a big league roster for the seventh straight season. In 829 Major League plate appearances he's a .200/.275/.295 hitter. Peterson, 29, made his Major League debut after 11 seasons between the minors and indepedent ball. He collected just two hits in 26 at-bats but dominated Triple-A, hitting .296/.364/.531 with 25 homers in 508 PAs. The 27-year-old Chambers hit .252/.338/.387 with eight homers and 16 steals in the minors, adding 29 big league plate appearances and making the Cards' postseason roster as well.

Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cardinals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

The Cardinals added Axford in a late August trade with the Brewers, and the 30-year-old righty did a nice job in 10 1/3 regular season innings for St. Louis, picking up another 5 2/3 innings in the postseason.  He recorded 19 holds this year, after amassing 106 saves previously in his career.  Saves pay well in arbitration, getting Axford a $5MM salary his first time through.  Axford would be useful to pencil into next year's pen, with Edward Mujica up for free agency and a decent-sized contract and Carlos Martinez being considered for the rotation.  However, Axford's projected arbitration cost is a little steep, making a non-tender likely if the Cardinals are not able to find a team willing to take him on in trade.

Freese represents a tougher decision.  The MVP of the 2011 postseason, Freese hit .262/.340/.381 in 521 regular season plate appearances this year and .179/.258/.268 in the playoffs.  He was quite good as recently as 2012, and to non-tender him seems drastic given a $4.4MM salary projection.  If Freese stays with the Cardinals, it seems likely the presence of Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong will affect his playing time.  The Cards could also trade Freese this offseason.

The Cardinals are a team with few deficiencies, but center field is another potential area of upgrade.  Jay, 29 in March, hit .276/.351/.370 in 628 plate appearances.  At the least, he remains a useful player at $3.4MM.  Jay's situation is similar to Freese: a non-tender seems unlikely, a trade is possible, and he may be pushed for playing time if he stays with St. Louis.  Descalso, meanwhile, seems likely to have a utility role on next year's club.

Salas, 29 in May, was the Cardinals' surprise closer for much of 2011, but spent time in the minors in 2012.  This year, he battled a shoulder injury and bounced up and down from Triple-A.  With a projected salary under a million bucks, the Cardinals might be able to find a taker in a trade if Salas is not part of their plans for 2014.

Assuming the Cardinals tender contracts to Freese, Jay, Descalso, and Salas, they're looking at an estimated $9.7MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Central Notes: Jimenez, Carpenter, Twins

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The Indians say they want to keep starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. The team extended Jimenez a qualifying offer on Monday, although Jimenez is expected to decline it. "We’ve been consistent since the season ended," says GM Chris Antonetti. "We’d like to have Ubaldo back. He played a huge part in our success last year, especially in the second half." Hoynes had previously written that there was "no chance" the Indians would sign Jimenez long-term, however, arguing that Tim Lincecum's contract with the Giants set the market too high for the Indians to be able to keep Jimenez. It would still be surprising, then, if Jimenez wound up staying in Cleveland. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Chris Carpenter's playing career appears to be over, but Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he and Carpenter have discussed a possible future role for Carpenter with the organization, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch reports. Carpenter already lives in St. Louis, and might be amenable to continuing on with the Cardinals in some sort of non-playing capacity.
  • The Twins are currently focusing on pitching in the free agent market, ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson tweets. They may later turn their attention to finding a hitter, Wolfson suggests, but so far they haven't. The Twins allowed 788 runs in 2013, worse than any team except the Astros, so finding a couple extra arms appears to be crucial for Minnesota this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals fell to the Red Sox in the World Series last week, but with a roster well-stocked with young talent, their short- and long-term futures appear bright.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Free Agents

With a terrific 2013 season, a strong big-league core in place and more young talent on the way, the Cardinals are in excellent shape, and nothing that happens this offseason is likely to change that. Their four free agents include two players (Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal) who didn't even play in 2013, which means that they'll only have to deal with the possible departures of two players (Carlos Beltran and Edward Mujica) who made meaningful contributions. (They'll also likely lose Jake Westbrook, whose option they recently declined.) That will leave them with only a few areas that they clearly need to address this offseason. And with Beltran, Carpenter, Furcal, Mujica and Jake Westbrook's combined salary of almost $45MM now available to spend, they'll have plenty of cash on hand.

Besides Mujica, every pitcher who made an impact in 2013, including many who will continue to make league-minimum salaries, will be available to return to a staff that finished fifth in the Majors in runs allowed. If anything, there's a chance that the Cardinals' pitching might be even better next year, given the likely departure of  Westbrook, who threw 116 2/3 of the Cardinals' weakest innings in 2013. The likely recipient of many of those innings will be 2013 rookie Michael Wacha, who pitched well in 64 2/3 regular-season innings and was nearly unhittable throughout much of the postseason. Three other spots in the rotation will likely be taken by perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright, top youngster Shelby Miller and workhorse Lance Lynn.

That leaves Joe Kelly, who isn't nearly as good as his 2.69 ERA in 2013 suggests but is more than capable in the back end of a rotation. Jaime Garcia will also likely be a a possibility — he's currently rehabbing the shoulder injury that shut him down in May. Carlos Martinez could also vy for a rotation spot, and Tyler Lyons will be available as depth. Tim Cooney, who's coming off an outstanding season at Double-A Springfield, may emerge as a possibility later in the season. With front-line starting pitching and quality depth, there is little reason for the Cardinals to pursue a starting pitcher in free agency.

They'll also have few meaningful losses in their starting lineup, although there are plenty of moving parts. They're set with Yadier Molina at catcher, Allen Craig and Matt Adams at first base, and Matt Holliday in the outfield. At their other outfield positions, letting Beltran depart might open up more opportunities for Adams (with Craig moving to the outfield so that Adams can play first) and top prospect Oscar Taveras. They also have Jon Jay, who they could leave in center field or upon whom they could attempt to upgrade. Kolten Wong will likely become the Cardinals' primary second baseman, with Matt Carpenter, a potential MVP candidate in 2013, moving to third. The Cardinals could also keep Wong in Triple-A if need be, leave Carpenter at second, and stick with David Freese at the hot corner.

That leaves shortstop, which was a glaring weakness for the Cardinals all season, with starter Pete Kozma playing at replacement value and showing few signs of the ability to climb much above it. The free agent class at shortstop isn't outstanding, but Stephen Drew or perhaps Jhonny Peralta would make sense. There may also be options on the trade market, although Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies doesn't appear to be a possibility. In any case, expect the Cardinals to do something to upgrade the position.

The Cardinals can rely on their deep well of power arms to fill out their bullpen. Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist emerged in 2013 and should continue to play key roles in 2014. Martinez and Kelly will also be good bullpen candidates if they aren't in the rotation. Lefty Randy Choate and ground ball specialist Seth Maness will also be back, and Jason Motte will return after Tommy John surgery shut him down for the 2013 season. As effective as Mujica was this year, there's no reason for the Cardinals to overpay for his services, given their stockpile.

If nothing else, the Cardinals can improve by acquiring a shortstop who can hit even a little. There's also still room for them to improve on the defensive front, not only by replacing Beltran and perhaps Jay, but also by implementing more defensive shifts, one of the few areas where they're behind the rest of the game. The Cardinals limited their number of shifts in 2013 upon encountering resistance from some of their pitchers. They plan to be more aggressive in implementing shifts next year, which should meaningfully improve their defense.

If the Cardinals take a step backwards next season, it might be because their three top 2013 performers regress somewhat. Matt Carpenter, Wainwright and Molina all posted in excess of 5 WAR in 2013, and expecting them to repeat their 2013 showings may be asking a lot. Carpenter's 7.0 WAR season, in particular, likely represents a career peak, and he shouldn't be counted on to do that again.

That's the curse of being an excellent team, though — a 97-win season isn't easy to repeat. Still, the Cardinals have a star-studded roster, and a farm system that should be able to continue to deliver solid contributors after others depart.

That means the Cardinals don't have to be aggressive this offseason. They could play it safe, find an upgrade at shortstop, and get ready for 2014. If they do want to get ambitious, though, there are ways for them to do that, too, as the New York Post's Joel Sherman recently noted. Perhaps the Cardinals could upgrade by pursuing a big name like Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield — Ellsbury would represent a big upgrade over Jay, both offensively and defensively. (With the No. 31 pick in the 2014 draft and a deep farm system, they won't have to worry much about losing a pick by signing a player who has been extended a qualifying offer; they'll also likely be able to replace any draft pick they might lose with the one they'll get if another team signs Beltran.) The Cardinals could also trade Taveras or Adams for help elsewhere.

Somewhat more conservatively, the Cards could trade from their pitching stockpile to acquire a shortstop. The Indians, for example, will be looking for pitching this offseason, and they can offer Asdrubal Cabrera. Alexei Ramirez or Erick Aybar might also be possibilities.

In other words, the Cards have plenty of flexibility, and aside from the shortstop position, they can make moves proactively, rather than simply acquiring players to fill obvious needs. The Cardinals' core of stars (Wainwright, Molina, Carpenter, Holliday) and recent influx of cheap, high-quality young pitching (Miller, Wacha, Lynn, Martinez, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Kelly) should put them in an enviable position for years to come.

Carlos Beltran Receives Qualifying Offer

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The Cardinals have extended a qualifying offer to right fielder Carlos Beltran, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Should Beltran reject the qualifying offer, which is valued at one year and $14.1MM, the Cardinals will be eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick should he sign elsewhere.

Beltran saw a decline in his plate discipline, defense and offense from the right side of the dish in 2013, but he still slashed a robust .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs in an even 600 plate appearances. In my free agent profile for Beltran last month, I predicted that he could sign a two-year, $30MM contract to cover his age 37-38 seasons. Beltran and the Yankees are rumored to have mutual interest.

You can keep track of Beltran and all of baseball's free agents this offseason by using MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker.

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