- The Rays just placed Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list yesterday, the second baseman’s third such stint of the 2022 season. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that an MRI revealed some inflammation in Lowe’s back. He’s headed for further evaluation to determine treatment possibilities, but Cash indicated the club is still hopeful he’ll return to the diamond this season. The Rays look set to mix-and-match at second base while Lowe’s out, giving the last three starts at the position to Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda and Isaac Paredes respectively. Walls is the best defender of the group, but he’s not hit well this year. Paredes has only a .293 on-base percentage but has connected on 18 home runs in 92 games. Aranda has only 15 big league games under his belt, but he’s raked at a .318/.394/.521 clip through 465 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham.
Rays Rumors
Rays Place Brandon Lowe On Injured List
The Rays announced they’ve placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, with lower back discomfort. Backstop René Pinto was recalled from Triple-A Durham to take the open active roster spot.
It’s the third IL stint of what has to be a frustrating season for Lowe. He suffered a stress reaction in his lower back in mid-May, an injury that required a multi-week shutdown and two-month absence. He returned in mid-July but went back on the shelf with a calf contusion in late August. That second stint proved brief, as Lowe was reinstated after a minimal 10-day absence last week, but he’s now again headed back to the injured list.
The Rays haven’t indicated how long they anticipate Lowe being out of action, but it’s an ill-timed absence as the end of the regular season nears. Tampa Bay trails the Yankees by 5 1/2 games in the AL East and is unlikely to capture the division title, but they’re battling for Wild Card position. The Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays occupy the AL’s three Wild Card spots and are all within half a game of one another. With a 5 1/2 cushion over the nearest non-playoff team, the Orioles, it seems likely all three will make it to the postseason. Securing the top Wild Card spot entitles a team to home-field advantage in the first-round playoff series, with all three games (if necessary) taking place at the higher seed’s ballpark.
Tampa Bay’s efforts to secure that position will be dealt a blow with Lowe again hitting the shelf. Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda and Taylor Walls look like the top candidates to step in at the keystone, with the club losing some infield depth yesterday when Yu Chang was nabbed off waivers by the Red Sox. Lowe isn’t having his best season, but his .221/.308/.383 line still checks in a hair above league average by measure of wRC+.
Rays Make Several Roster Moves
Sep. 13: The Rays announced that Criswell has been returned to Triple-A. Additionally, they have recalled Josh Fleming and Yonny Chirinos, with the latter serving as the “29th man” for today’s doubleheader.
Sep. 12, 1:05pm: Topkin relays that McKay has indeed been transferred to the 60-day IL to open up another 40-man roster spot. The Rays also announced the moves, saying that Criswell has been “added” to the roster, with Guerra and Herget “selected.” That would seem to suggest that Criswell is a COVID substitute, temporarily taking Raley’s place on the roster. That means he will be eligible to be removed from the roster at a later date without being placed on waivers.
9:05am: The Rays are making a series of changes to their pitching staff prior to a big five-game series in Toronto that starts tonight (Twitter links from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Three right-handers will be added to the roster: Cooper Criswell, Kevin Herget and Javy Guerra. Two other righties, Luis Patiño and Calvin Faucher, were optioned after yesterday’s game to open a couple of spots on the active roster. Left-hander Brooks Raley will open a third by being placed on the restricted list, ineligible to cross the Canadian-American border due to his unvaccinated status. None of Criswell, Herget or Guerra are on the 40-man roster, which is currently at 39. Raley won’t count against that number while on the restricted list, leaving the club still to open one spot. Speculatively speaking, they could transfer lefty Brendan McKay to the 60-day injusted list in the wake of the news of his Tommy John surgery.
Criswell, 26, made his MLB debut last year with a 1 1/3-inning cup of coffee with the Angels. They placed him on the 60-day IL this year due to shoulder soreness and eventually lost him to the Rays on a waiver claim in July. Since that claim, Criswell has thrown 27 1/3 innings over eight games for the Triple-A Durham Bulls. He has a 3.95 ERA in that time with a 20.8% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate and 51.9% ground ball rate. He was designated for assignment in July, getting outrighted after clearing waivers. He will get the start for tonight’s game and could give the Rays at least a few frames. Each of his last eight appearances have been between three and four innings.
Herget, 31, spent many years in the Cardinals’ system and one in Cleveland’s before joining the Rays on a minor league deal. He was selected to Tampa’s roster in August but got designated for assignment before making his MLB debut. He’s thrown 91 2/3 innings over 19 appearances for the Bulls on the year, making him another multi-inning option for the Rays. He has a 2.55 ERA for the season with a 24.7% strikeout rate, 3.8% walk rate and 35.9% ground ball rate.
Guerra, 26, has 34 innings of MLB experience thus far, mostly with the Padres. He was traded to the Rays in April for cash considerations but was designated for assignment in May, clearing waivers and getting outrighted to Durham. He briefly returned to the team as a COVID substitute the last time the Rays traveled to Toronto. He’s been used in the more traditional single-inning reliever role, having thrown 41 1/3 innings over 43 Triple-A games this year. He has a 1.74 ERA in that stretch with a 31.9% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 47.1% grounder rate.
Thanks to tomorrow’s doubleheader, the Rays and Jays will be playing five games over the next four days, making it fairly logical for Tampa to add some fresh arms. Josh Fleming and Jimmy Yacabonis are also traveling with the team on the taxi squad, making them candidates to be the club’s “29th man” for the twin bill. Along with the Mariners, the Rays and Blue Jays are holding down the American League Wild Card spots, with all three teams within half a game of each other. That means these contests will be key in determining the postseason picture in a few weeks’ time. In this year’s new playoff format, the first round is played entirely in the home field of the top-seeded team, so there’s a meaningful difference between having the first Wild Card spot and the second/third.
Red Sox Claim Yu Chang, Designate Jaylin Davis
The Red Sox have claimed infielder Yu Chang off waivers from the Rays, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Chang had been designated for assignment last week. In a corresponding move, outfielder Jaylin Davis has been designated for assignment by Boston.
Chang, 28, has been a fixture of transaction logs this year, now joining his fourth organization of the season. He began the year with the Guardians but was designated for assignment in late May. He got traded to the Pirates for cash considerations but was designated for assignment again after a month in Pittsburgh. The Rays claimed him off waives from the Bucs and have kept him around for the past two months.
Chang was a fairly well regarded prospect but hasn’t yet had strong results in the major leagues. Since he is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors, he’s been continually nudged off rosters all year, with some other club always stepping up to give him another shot. His overall batting line this year is .216/.280/.324 for a wRC+ of 77. He has been better in recent months with the Rays, however, hitting .260/.305/.385 for a wRC+ of 101. Whether Chang’s bat has turned a corner or not, he will at least provide defensive versatility, having spent some time at each of the four infield positions this year.
The Red Sox are 69-72 on the year, leaving them 10 games out of a playoff spot with just over three weeks remaining on the schedule. With their hopes of competing effectively dashed at this point, they can use their remaining games to evaluate players prior to the winter, with Chang now entering the mix. The club’s current infield picture includes Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Christian Arroyo, with Bogaerts expected to opt out of his contract and become a free agent this winter. The Sox make sense as a fit for a free agent shortstop to replace Bogaerts, though if they don’t succeed in signing one, they could also slide Story over and make Arroyo the everyday second baseman. That would give Chang a path to a job as a utility/bench infielder.
As for Davis, 28, the Red Sox claimed him from the Giants in April but passed him through waivers a couple weeks later. He was selected back to the roster in July. He has a great batting line in the majors though in a tiny sample of just 27 plate appearances. He’s hit .333/.407/.375 in the bigs this year despite striking out 40.7% of the time. He’s hit just .198/.315/.318 for Triple-A Worcester while going down on strikes in in 30.8% of his 305 plate appearances. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Sox will have no choice but to put him on outright waivers or release waivers in the coming days. Since Davis was previously outrighted, he’d have the ability to reject an assignment and elect free agency in the event he clears waivers again.
Edwin Jackson Announces Retirement
Former All-Star Edwin Jackson took to Instagram this evening to officially announce his retirement from Major League Baseball. The right-hander pitched parts of 17 seasons in the majors, getting to the highest level every year between 2003-19. Jackson suited up for 14 different MLB teams, setting the all-time record for most uniforms donned.
“19 years ago today I was blessed with an opportunity to tie up my laces and step on the field to make my debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers,” Jackson wrote. “Today I am happily hanging up my cleats and closing a 22-year baseball career.” Jackson went on to thank his wife, parents, sisters, children and the rest of his family before expressing his gratitude to various coaches, trainers and doctors who assisted him. “This game has taught me many life lessons and allowed me to evolve into the person I am today! I will forever have memories that will live within me from the game I love and dedicated my life to. Thank you baseball for an amazing life experience I will never forget,” he concluded.
A sixth-round draftee of the Dodgers out of a Georgia high school in 2001, Jackson emerged as one of the sport’s best pitching prospects not long thereafter. He broke into the big leagues exactly 19 years ago on his 20th birthday, starting three of four appearances down the stretch. He bounced on and off Los Angeles’ active roster for the next couple seasons before being traded to the then-Devil Rays over the 2005-06 offseason.
Jackson worked primarily as a reliever for his first season in Tampa Bay, but he took a full turn of starts by the 2007 campaign. That kicked off a stretch of seven consecutive seasons in which he surpassed 30 starts and 160 innings. Jackson pitched in Tampa Bay through 2008 before being dealt to the Tigers for outfielder Matt Joyce. He tossed a career-best 214 innings the next year, posting a 3.62 ERA. Jackson earned an All-Star nod with a 2.52 mark through that season’s first half.
The next offseason, his nomadic career continued. Detroit flipped Jackson to the Diamondbacks as part of a three-team blockbuster that netted Detroit Max Scherzer and sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. His stint in the desert was rather brief — he’d wind up traded again at that summer’s deadline — but it provided one of the more memorable moments of his career. On June 25, 2010, he tossed a no-hitter against his former team at Tropicana Field. He threw a staggering 149 pitches in the outing, striking out six but issuing eight walks. Then-manager A.J. Hinch stuck with Jackson despite his high pitch count, and he completed one of the more remarkable single-game performances by a player in recent memory.
Not long after, the last-place club dealt Jackson to the White Sox in a trade that landed Arizona Daniel Hudson. Jackson pitched well in 11 starts down the stretch, and he got off to another solid start in 2011. The White Sox fell out of contention the latter season, though, and he was on the move again. The Blue Jays acquired Jackson from the White Sox on the morning of July 27, but his stint in Toronto lasted only a few hours. Toronto promptly flipped him to the Cardinals in a deal that sent Colby Rasmus north of the border.
Jackson played in St. Louis for the second half, pitching to a 3.58 ERA through 12 starts. He made four starts in the postseason, and while his playoff numbers weren’t great, the Cardinals secured the World Series title in a dramatic series win over the Rangers. Fresh off winning a title, Jackson signed with the Nationals during his first trip through free agency. He spent the 2012 campaign in the Nats rotation, helping Washington to their first playoff appearance since moving to D.C.
The next winter, Jackson inked a four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs. He continued to soak up innings but didn’t post especially strong numbers in Chicago. After two and a half seasons, he was released. That kicked off an even more rapid trip around the league, as Jackson suited up with the Braves, Marlins, Padres, Orioles, Nationals (again), A’s, Blue Jays and Tigers (again) over the next four years. He alternated between the rotation and the bullpen throughout that time, generally serving as a depth option.
While Jackson signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks in 2020, he didn’t make it back to the majors. He did appear on the U.S. Olympic team last summer and expressed a desire to get back to the big leagues, but he didn’t get another opportunity with an affiliated organization.
Altogether, Jackson pitched in 412 major league games. He tossed 1960 innings with a 4.78 ERA, striking out a bit more than 1500 batters and winning 107 games. According to Baseball Reference, Jackson banked upwards of $66MM in earnings and incredibly logged some action for almost half the league. MLBTR congratulates Jackson on his lengthy, accomplished career and wishes him all the best in retirement.
Brendan McKay To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Rays southpaw Brendan McKay will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). He’s expected to miss the entire 2023 campaign.
It’s the latest in a staggering series of significant injuries for the former #4 overall pick. McKay hasn’t thrown a single major league pitch since 2019, as he’s been plagued by an almost unfathomable string of bad luck. He missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. The rehab from that procedure kept him out of action until late June 2021. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, McKay suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending. He was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery to correct that issue last November.
McKay spent most of 2022 on the injured list recovering from the TOS procedure. He set out on a rehab assignment in mid-July and spent his allotted 30-day window pitching back to Triple-A. The Rays then formally reinstated McKay from the IL but kept him in Durham on an optional assignment. A few days later, he suffered a UCL injury while pitching with the Bulls.
Before all of the injuries, McKay was one of the sport’s most unique young talents. A two-way superstar at the University of Louisville, he’s continued to dabble in the two-way experiment in pro ball. McKay has performed better on the mound than he has a first baseman, and he had a fairly promising debut showing three years ago. While he only managed a 5.14 ERA through his first 49 big league frames, McKay punched out an above-average 25.9% of batters faced against just a 7.4% walk rate. It seemed as if he’d be a key piece of the rotation for the next few seasons, but the injuries have thrown that off track.
Last offseason, MLB granted the Rays a fourth minor league option year in recognition of McKay’s injury troubles. He’d spent the first few months of the season on the MLB injured list. While he was eventually activated and optioned, McKay only spent 17 days on optional assignment. According to his transactions log at MLB.com, he’s been recalled and placed on the MLB 15-day injured list. Players only exhaust an option year if they spend 20+ days in the minors during a season. It appears the Rays will keep him on the MLB IL — thus paying him a prorated $700K minimum salary and allowing him to accrue service time — to avoid exhausting that final option year. Tampa Bay figures to transfer him to the 60-day IL to free up a spot on the 40-man roster when necessary.
Rays Activate Wander Franco, Designate Yu Chang For Assignment
The Rays welcomed Wander Franco back from the injured list Friday, designating fellow infielder Yu Chang for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster. Tampa Bay also reinstated righty Drew Rasmussen from the paternity list and optioned right-hander Yonny Chirinos to Triple-A Durham in a corresponding move. Chirinos will remain with the club on the taxi squad.
Franco’s forthcoming reinstatement was reported last night. The star shortstop has been out since the second week of June after fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand. He had some brief setbacks upon first trying to begin a rehab stint in late August, but he made it back to Durham on Tuesday. After just a pair of games there, Tampa Bay will welcome him back to the lineup in advance of a pivotal weekend series against the Yankees, whom they trail by 4 1/2 games in the AL East.
With their star shortstop back healthy, the Rays ran out of room for Chang. Claimed off waivers from the Pirates in July, he’s spent the past couple months in a utility capacity with the big league club. The 27-year-old has played reasonably well in Tampa Bay, hitting .260/.305/.385 with three home runs and doubles apiece over 105 trips to the dish. Paired with his ability to cover anywhere around the infield, he was a useful contributor to the Rays bench, but he hadn’t fared as well during earlier-season stints with the Guardians and Pirates.
Including his dismal results with Cleveland and Pittsburgh, Chang still owns a below-average .216/.280/.324 line over 164 plate appearances on the year. He’s a .215/.275/.365 hitter through parts of four MLB seasons, a dip compared to his .258/.332/.427 showing in four seasons at Triple-A. Chang was a fairly well-regarded prospect and has drawn interest from a few teams this year, but he’s had a hard time carving out a permanent role. That’s in large part due to his out-of-options status, as teams can’t demote Chang to Triple-A without first running him through waivers.
The Rays will now take a shot at getting Chang through waivers themselves. With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, the only courses of action are to place Chang on outright or release waivers within the next few days.
Rays Likely To Activate Wander Franco From Injured List
The Rays are likely to activate Wander Franco from the 10-day injured list before tomorrow’s series opener with the Yankees, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The shortstop has been on a minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham, but he traveled with the team to the Bronx during today’s off day and is likely to be back in the lineup on Friday night.
Franco has been out for two months. He suffered a hamate fracture in his right wrist on July 9, and he underwent surgery a few days later. That procedure came with a five-to-eight week recovery timetable. Franco comes in toward the latter end of that timeline, largely thanks to a couple brief setbacks along the way. Sent out on a rehab assignment in mid-August, the 21-year-old was pulled back a few days later after experiencing some residual soreness. That set Franco back a couple weeks, but he’s been in Durham’s lineup each of the past two nights.
A two-day rehab stint after an absence of this length doesn’t give Franco much time to get back into a rhythm, but the Rays are also facing one of their most important series of the year. Tampa Bay trails the Yankees by five games, and this weekend’s series will be the teams’ final meeting of the regular season. For the Rays to have a realistic chance at winning the AL East, they’ll probably have to at least take two of three to gain a game in the standings. Getting Franco back certainly helps those efforts, even if his second season in the majors hasn’t gone as smoothly as they’d have hoped.
The sport’s consensus top prospect before his promotion last summer, Franco hit .288/.347/.463 through his first 70 MLB games. He already looked like one of the sport’s top overall players, but the switch-hitting infielder has taken a bit of a step back in his sophomore campaign. He carries a .260/.308/.396 line through 247 trips to the plate. He’s been one of the league’s toughest players to strike out, but his power production has taken a bit of a step back. Franco has also had a pair of extended IL stints, missing a month due to a quad strain before this hamate issue.
Relatively slow start aside, there’s no question Franco represents a marked upgrade over the Rays other options at shortstop. Tampa Bay has primarily turned to Taylor Walls there in his absence. A former highly-regarded prospect himself (albeit not one of Franco’s caliber), Walls has stumbled to a .176/.267/.282 line over 408 trips to the dish.
Franco was joined on his rehab stint by Tyler Glasnow, who tossed an inning on 19 pitches last night for Durham. It marked the big right-hander’s first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery last August. Glasnow, who signed an extension two weeks back, continues to pursue a late-season return to the club. There’s a bit less than a month remaining on the regular season schedule, but the 29-year-old could factor in as an abbreviated starter or reliever for the stretch run and postseason if all goes according to plan.
It wasn’t all positive news on the injury front for the Rays, as they’re shutting down one of their top prospects for the season. Infielder Curtis Mead is out for the year with a forearm/elbow issue, tweets Triple-A broadcaster Patrick Kinas. Mead, a 21-year-old third baseman/second baseman, raked at a .305/.394/.548 clip through 56 games with Double-A Montgomery. That earned him a bump to Durham in late June, where he’d been off to a .278/.376/.486 start before the injury.
That monster showing has elevated Mead’s prospect status. Baseball America slotted the Australia native 3rd in an excellent Tampa Bay system and 24th overall on its most recent Top 100 prospect rankings. While he’s yet to make his major league debut, he’ll no doubt be added to the 40-man roster this winter to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. With a strong start to next season for the Bulls, Mead could factor into the Rays infield by the middle part of next season.
The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race
Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.
Or, all of that could be rendered moot.
Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.
At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.
If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.
Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox
Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.
At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.
It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.
Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays
Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.
At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)
However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…
Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).
Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.
In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.
Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels
When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.
In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.
Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.
Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays
Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.
There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.
Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).
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A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:
Matt Wisler Elects Free Agency
Reliever Matt Wisler has gone unclaimed on outright waivers after being designated for assignment by the Rays this week, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). He’s electing minor league free agency in lieu of an outright assignment, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
It’s a bit of a surprise to see Wisler go unclaimed, as he’s currently amidst a decent campaign. He owns a 2.25 ERA across 44 innings over 39 appearances. Wisler has only struck out 19.9% of opponents, but he’s shown strong control. While he’s not missed many bats this year, Wisler has induced swinging strikes at an above-average rate in each of the prior three seasons. In both 2020-21, the Ohio native paired those whiffs with decent overall run prevention.
Still, clubs are apparently apprehensive by Wisler’s dip in velocity. He’s averaging a career-low 89.7 MPH on his four-seam fastball this year. More important, his slider is down to 79.8 MPH after sitting at 81.5 MPH last year. Wisler leans almost exclusively on that breaker, turning to it on a staggering 91.5% of his offerings. He’s used the slider as his primary pitch four years running, but he’s continued to push his approach to greater extremes with each season. Despite turning almost exclusively to the slider, Wisler hasn’t encountered any sort of platoon issues. He’s actually fared better against opposite-handed hitters than righties over the past few seasons, including holding southpaws to a .186/.240/.314 line in 75 plate appearances in 2022.
Now that he’s on the open market, Wisler will have the right to explore opportunities elsewhere. Players who join an organization after August 31 aren’t eligible for postseason play, however, so any signing team would only be able to install him in the bullpen for the final few weeks of the regular season. Wisler has surpassed his sixth year of major league service this season, so he’d be eligible for free agency again at the end of the year even if he signs for the stretch run.
It’s possible Wisler just turns his attention to 2023 at this stage on the calendar, but there’d be no financial downside for another team adding him for the final few weeks if he’s searching for a more immediate opportunity. The Rays are responsible for what remains of his $2.16MM salary, while another team would only owe him the prorated portion of the $700K minimum if he finds another MLB job (which would be subtracted from Tampa Bay’s obligations).
