Dodgers Pursuing High-End Third Baseman
9:05pm: Along with Donaldson, the Dodgers seem to have interest in Rendon, who’s “on their radar,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Rendon, like Donaldson, has to decide whether to accept his team’s qualifying offer. But the longtime Nationals star is sure to reject it, as he appears to be in line to sign a contract worth more than $200MM prior to next season. It’s not the Dodgers’ M.O. to hand out that type of deal, but if they do win the bidding for Rendon or Donaldson, Turner would be open to changing positions. He has already offered to move off third if necessary.
2:03pm: Josh Donaldson technically still has a decision to make on the qualifying offer he received from the Braves, though rejecting that $17.8MM offer is all but a formality. The Phillies, Rangers, Nationals and Braves all have some level of interest in the the former AL MVP, and Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports that the Dodgers, too, are considering a pursuit of the slugger.
Third base has been Justin Turner‘s domain in L.A. for the past six years, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old Turner is entering the final season of a four-year, $64MM contract in 2019. Defensive metrics soured on his once-excellently rated glovework in 2019, as he registered -7 Defensive Runs Saved and a -6.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. A move across the diamond to first base, or perhaps to second base, could open space for Donaldson and give the Dodgers a more palatable defensive alignment. Donaldson will turn 34 himself next month, but he rebounded from an injury-marred 2018 campaign to post a strong year on both sides of the ball in 2019 (+15 DRS, +2.4 UZR).
Donaldson fits the free-agent mold that has become typical under Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman: a high-end player who could conceivably had on a shorter-term deal with a premium annual salary. Donaldson’s age could limit him to three years — four seems like the largest commitment a team would make — meaning interested parties could potentially add an elite talent without assuming the long-term risk that inherently accompanies many premier free agents (e.g. Anthony Rendon). In 659 plate appearances this past season, Donaldson hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers and 33 doubles to go along with that strong defense.
From a payroll and luxury tax vantage point, there’s room for the Dodgers to fit Donaldson into the budget — particularly since the ever-active front office is likely to make some additional moves elsewhere on the roster. The Dodgers have $91.5MM committed to Clayton Kershaw, Turner, Kenley Jansen, A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Kenta Maeda, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an additional $53MM worth of arbitration salaries — headlined by Cody Bellinger ($11.6MM), Joc Pederson ($8.5MM) and Corey Seager ($7.1MM). Including those arb projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster (plus the dead money owed to Yaisel Sierra and Hector Olivera), the Dodgers will check in around $165MM in actual payroll commitments with about $184MM against the luxury tax (using the estimate from Jason Martinez over at Roster Resource).
There’s not a ton of space between that $184MM mark and this year’s luxury tax limit of $208MM. Donaldson himself could command enough money on an annual basis to bridge that gap and put the Dodgers into penalty territory. But, the Dodgers have ample resources from which to deal in an effort to lower that number. Pederson, for instance, seems like a logical trade candidate with a relatively hefty arbitration projection and only a year of club control remaining. That’s all the more true if the Dodgers make a move that would slide Turner across the diamond to first base, as doing so would lessen the need for Bellinger to ever play first base. Bellinger, Pollock, Alex Verdugo, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez give the Dodgers the outfield depth to explore such a move. (Hernandez or Taylor, too, could be conceivable trade assets.)
Whether Donaldson lands in L.A. or elsewhere, the Dodgers have enviable levels of defensive versatility and quite a few movable assets that are still affordable for most clubs. That should allow them to pursue value targets regardless of their defensive home, and it seemingly sets the stage for another active winter for Friedman and his staff.
NL West Notes: Friedman, Giants, Oracle Park, Padres
As the Padres unveil some sharp new uniforms, let’s look at some news from around the NL West…
- It has been close to a month since Andrew Friedman said he was close to finalizing a contract extension to remain as the Dodgers‘ president of baseball operations, though there hasn’t since been any word about a deal. There doesn’t appear to be any real reason for concern, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, as the two sides are “still dotting I’s and crossing T’s” on the new contract. Friedman has also been battling the flu for the past week.
- Construction has begun on Oracle Park’s new bullpens, which will result in a slightly moved-in portion of the outfield fence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Relievers for both the Giants and visiting clubs will no longer have to warm up in foul territory, as the new bullpens will be located behind the center field and right-center field fences. As a result, the area of fence that runs across center field into the “Triples Alley” triangle will be lowered by about a foot and moved four-to-six feet closer to home plate. The apex of the triangle will also be a bit shorter to home plate than its current 421-foot distance.
- Also from Schulman (Twitter links), he reports that as of Friday night, the Giants still hadn’t made a decision in their managerial search, though one should be coming relatively soon. Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and former Phillies manager Gabe Kapler are reportedly the final three candidates in the running.
- The Padres had some interest in Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara last summer, so Dennis Lin and Jamey Newberg of the Athletic (subscription required) tried to figure out a Mazara trade package that could help both clubs, in a lengthy exploration of how San Diego and Texas match up as trade partners. Some obvious links exist between the two franchises — Padres GM A.J. Preller and new manager Jayce Tingler both came to San Diego from the Texas organization, giving the Friars a lot of familiarity with Rangers players on both the MLB and minor league rosters. Lin and Newberg settle on a scenario that would see Mazara and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez go to the Rangers for Joey Lucchesi and catching prospect Blake Hunt.
Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu
It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you sign?
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Madison Bumgarner 40% (5,623)
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Zack Wheeler 38% (5,327)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 23% (3,191)
Total votes: 14,141
Kenley Jansen Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.
Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.
The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.
Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.
Dodgers Decline Jedd Gyorko’s Option
The Dodgers have declined their $13MM team option on infielder Jedd Gyorko (h/t to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). He’ll instead receive a $1M buyout.
Today’s news is hardly unexpected. While LA acquired Gyorko from the Cardinals at the trade deadline to bolster their right-handed bench depth, he was never especially likely to cement himself as a long-term option. Injuries limited the veteran to 101 plate appearances between St. Louis and LA, and he was a shell of himself at the plate. Gyorko’s .174/.248/.250 line (36 wRC+) is hardly the platform season he would’ve liked.
That said, Gyorko was a productive player as recently as 2018. Each year from 2016-18, he was around ten percentage points better than a league average hitter. Nothing about his performance jumped off the page, but he was quietly a well-rounded player. Gyorko drew walks at a solid clip, struck out at an average rate, and hit for slightly above-average power. Toss in average defensive metrics at second and third base, and Gyorko was a solid everyday player, albeit not the most exciting.
While Gyorko has some shortstop experience, he’ll presumably be viewed as an insurance option at the corner infield and at second base by suitors. Second base, especially, is rife with veterans who will draw interest on short-term deals, and Gyorko certainly fits in that mix. Still just 31 with productive seasons in the not-too-distant past, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him find a major league deal this winter, although it’ll assuredly be for less than the value of the option the Dodgers declined.
Dodgers Select Victor Gonzalez’s Contract
The Dodgers have selected the contract of left-hander Victor Gonzalez from Triple-A Oklahoma City, the team announced. The move puts Gonzalez on the 40-man roster and protects him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The 23-year-old Gonzalez isn’t ranked within MLB.com’s ranking of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects, and he only just cracked the Triple-A level this year, tossing 14 innings for Oklahoma City. Nevertheless, the L.A. front office felt he was worth keeping given Gonzalez’s impressive numbers across three minor league levels in 2019.
Beginning the year in high-A ball and ending in Triple-A, Gonzalez posted a cumulative 2.31 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 89 2/3 innings. Though Gonzalez started 13 of his 38 total appearances this season, he worked exclusively as a reliever in 15 Triple-A outings, and bullpen work is probably Gonzalez’s likeliest path to a possible big league debut in 2020.
With Gonzalez added, the Dodgers now have 38 players on their 40-man roster. Teams have until November 20 to finalize their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft, which takes place on December 12.
Dodgers Set To Promote Mark Prior To Pitching Coach
The Dodgers lost pitching coach Rick Honeycutt to retirement earlier this month, though they appear to be closing in on a replacement. They’re working toward a deal to promote bullpen coach Mark Prior to take over for Honeycutt, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It won’t be a surprising hire, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman suggested upon Honeycutt’s exit that Prior would grab the reins.
Prior, who’s now 39 years old, still counts as one of the most hyped pitching prospects of the past couple decades. He was a member of the Cubs from 2002-06, a span in which he ranged from good to excellent, but a rash of injuries ruined Prior’s MLB career and prevented him from pitching professionally after 2013. Prior then spent time as the Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator for three seasons before the Dodgers hired him to oversee their bullpen in advance of the 2018 campaign.
Now, assuming Prior does succeed Honeycutt, he’ll be inheriting a pitching staff with no shortage of talent. The Dodgers’ relief corps was somewhat of a sore spot in 2019, especially during a Game 5 meltdown against the Nationals in the NLDS, though the club’s pitchers still ranked at or near the top of the majors in ERA (first), K/BB ratio (first) and fWAR (second). Unfortunately for LA, it’s now at risk of losing starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency in the coming weeks. However, the big-spending team could re-sign either or both and/or go outside the organization this offseason to give Prior more to work with in 2020.
Giants Have Interviewed Bob Geren
The Giants have interviewed Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren in their search for a new manager, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). At present, the only candidates reported to have received a second interview are Astros bench coach Joe Espada and recently dismissed Phillies manager Gabe Kapler.
Like Kapler, the 58-year-old Geren is plenty familiar with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi from the pair’s days with the Dodgers. However, Geren’s connection with Zaidi predates their Dodgers tenure, as Geren also managed the Athletics from 2007-11. At the time Geren was hired in Oakland, Zaidi was a burgeoning baseball operations analyst with the Athletics, and he was the club’s director of baseball operations by the time Geren was dismissed in June 2011.
Geren, who played in parts of five Major League seasons as a catcher (mostly with the Yankees), has managed at coached extensively both in the at the Major League and Minor League level. He managed two different Athletics affiliates from 1999-2002 before being added to the Major League staff as a bullpen coach and eventually a bench coach. Since that five-year run as Oakland’s skipper, he’s spent four seasons apiece as the bench coach with the Mets and the Dodgers, working alongside managers Terry Collins and Dave Roberts.
Dodgers Reportedly Expected To Explore Trade For Francisco Lindor
After a disappointingly early postseason exit, the Dodgers are back to plotting the tweaks that will take their roster to yet another level. The initial expectation is that the Los Angeles organization will open trade talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, unnamed sources tell Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).
On the one hand, it’s hardly surprising to hear that the L.A. franchise has its eyes on Lindor, one of the game’s very best young players. On the other, it’s worth taking this report with a heavy dose of salt. It isn’t entirely clear from Morosi’s phrasing whether Dodgers executives have already crafted a clear plan to go after Lindor.
Even if the Dodgers are a contender for Lindor, there are plenty of obstacles to completing a swap. We’ve already seen a hint of the involvement of another coastal behemoth and numerous other clubs would surely want a crack at the superstar. The bidding would surely be intense.
And it’s not even clear just yet whether the Indians wish to take this course with their franchise centerpiece. While the Cleveland org would surely base its decision upon actual trade offers, it’ll hesitate even to launch earnest discussions — and thereby kickstart a rumor mill that would loom large over the offseason — unless it believes that the end result will be a swap.
The Dodgers aren’t exactly hurting for talent on the left side of the infield. Corey Seager wasn’t dominant in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but was still quite productive and remains a high-end young talent. Justin Turner‘s glove may be slowing but his bat is just about as vicious as ever. And one of the game’s best prospects, Gavin Lux, has spent most of his professional time at shortstop (though the Dodgers utilized him at second in his debut year).
While it’d be hard to label shortstop as a need, it doesn’t take a ton of imagination to appreciate the concept of adding a mid-prime Lindor to the mix. It probably works even without a trade. Seager could shift over to third, with Turner spending more of his time at first base. Lux and Max Muncy would be the other key parts of the mix on the right side of the diamond, with Cody Bellinger spending most of his time in center field. The offensive upside of such an infield unit would be enormous.
Of course, it’s quite possible that there’d be some other changes to the L.A. roster mix, possibly even in a hypothetical swap to land Lindor. The Indians will not likely be focused on far-away talent in negotiations. Bringing aboard the exceptional talent will unquestionably require a major haul in return. Lindor, who’s closing in on his 26th birthday, is a high-grade defender and well-above-average offensive player. He’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration — a big number but still well shy of his single-season open-market value. With one more arb year to go, Lindor has plenty of trade value; it’s also arguably the right time for the Indians to bite the bullet and cash him in.
Pirates Interview Matt Quatraro, George Lombard
10:40am: Pittsburgh has also interviewed Dodgers first base, outfield and baserunning coach George Lombard, per SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link). Lombard, 44, played parts of six seasons as an outfielder in the Majors and has been in his current role since 2015. He was briefly named the Braves’ minor league field coordinator before accepting his current post with the Dodgers and has also served as a minor league outfield coordinator, hitting coach and manager in the Red Sox organization.
10:04am: The Pirates have interviewed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as part of their search for a new manager, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Quatraro has also reportedly interviewed with the Giants organization.
Quatraro, who’ll turn 46 next month, served as a minor league hitting coach, manager and hitting coordinator in the Rays’ system before being hired as the Indians’ assistant hitting coach in 2014. Tampa Bay hired him back and installed him as their third base coach a year later, and he ascended to his current position of bench coach once the Blue Jays hired Charlie Montoyo away from the Rays last winter. A former catcher who played parts of seven minor league seasons in the Rays organization, Quatraro has also worked as a catching instructor in the minors with Tampa Bay.
If Quatraro does land with the Pirates (or with the Giants), it’ll mark the third consecutive offseason in which the Rays have had at least one member of their coaching staff hired away by another organization. Manager Kevin Cash enjoyed three years of continuity from 2015-17 but has since seen Rocco Baldelli hired as the Twins’ new skipper in addition to Montoyo’s hiring in Toronto.
Quatraro joins a list of Pirates interviewees that includes Twins bench coach Derek Shelton (also a former Rays coach), Athletics bench coach Ryan Christenson and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2020 managerial search tracker). Others rumored to be in consideration include Astros bench coach Joe Espada, D-backs director of player development Mike Bell, Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay and former Pirates bench coach/former Rangers manager Jeff Banister, who is currently a special assistant in the Pittsburgh front office.