Jeff Baker Elects Free Agency
TODAY: Baker has officially elected to become a free agent, according to MLB.com's transactions page.
OCTOBER 9: The Rangers announced that they have designated Jeff Baker for assignment. The infielder was taken off of the 40-man roster to make room for right-handed pitcher Matt West to be activated off of the 60-day disabled list. The move doesn't make a huge difference in the Rangers' plans as Baker is set to hit the open market this winter.
Baker had a strong .279/.360/.545 slash line in a small sample size of 175 plate appearances this season. The 32-year-old, who also has experience in the outfield, has a career slash line of .267/.321/.440 over parts of nine big league seasons. Last winter, the Yankees were among the clubs that showed interest in Baker when they were in the hunt for a right-handed outfield bat.
To keep track of Baker and all other players in DFA limbo, check out the MLBTR DFA Tracker.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
Despite a disappointing ending to their 2013 season, the Rangers still have a strong, though increasingly expensive, core in place, and they'll likely spend the 2013-14 offseason trying to replace or re-sign some of their many free agents.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $124.5MM through 2022
- Ian Kinsler, 2B: $62MM through 2017
- Matt Harrison, SP: $49MM through 2017
- Yu Darvish, SP: $41MM through 2017
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $35MM through 2015
- Derek Holland, SP: $24.3MM through 2016
- Alex Rios, OF: $13.5MM through 2014
- Leonys Martin, OF: $6.5MM through 2015
- Joakim Soria, RP: $6MM through 2014
- Jason Frasor, RP: $1.75MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Neftali Feliz, RP (4.064): $3MM
- Alexi Ogando, SP (3.114): $2MM
- Mitch Moreland, 1B (3.067): $2.7MM
- Craig Gentry, OF (3.084): $1.1MM
- Neal Cotts, RP (5.041): $1.5MM
- Adam Rosales, INF (4.098; non-tender candidate): $900K
- Travis Blackley, SP (3.026; non-tender candidate): $600K
Contract Options
- Lance Berkman, DH: $12MM, $1MM buyout
- Joe Nathan, RP: $9MM, $750K buyout
Free agents: Nelson Cruz, Matt Garza, A.J. Pierzynski, David Murphy, Geovany Soto, Colby Lewis
The Rangers have had five straight winning seasons and four straight with at least 90 wins, but a mood of unease surrounds the club. Despite high-profile summer trades for Matt Garza and Alex Rios, the Rangers posted a 12-16 record in September and missed the playoffs after falling to the Rays in a one-game tiebreaker. CEO Nolan Ryan recently retired after any number of reports of tension between him and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels. The Rangers dismissed bench coach Jackie Moore and first-base coach Dave Anderson after the season ended, even though manager Ron Washington wanted them to stay; Moore speculated that he was dismissed because he was close with Ryan.
Reports have suggested the 2014 Rangers will aim to have a payroll a little lower than their $125MM 2013 figure, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine them going higher. With about $89MM already committed to guaranteed contracts for Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Rios, Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison and others, plus the $10MM or so they'll have to pay arbitration-eligible players, the Rangers will have a limited amount of flexibility with which to address a variety of needs. Even with the relatively recent debuts of Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez, the Rangers' core (Kinsler, Beltre, Andrus, Darvish, Harrison, Derek Holland) is getting older and more expensive, as baseball players do, and that could force the Rangers into some tricky decisions in the coming years.
The Rangers will have Rios at one corner outfield position, and they're expected to extend a qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz, who might well fill the other. If Cruz does return, the Rangers could be mostly set in the outfield, despite the possible departure of David Murphy. In center field, Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry lack prototypical outfield power, but they make up for it with outstanding defense, and they can be platooned.
Much of the ihe infield, too, is set, unless the Rangers can find some way to relieve their logjam there. Kinsler, Andrus and Beltre are all signed to huge contracts, leaving no obvious permanent spot for Profar who, despite a somewhat underwhelming rookie season, provides the club with youth and upside it can clearly use. The obvious solution would be to move Kinsler, who is not a top defensive player, to first base or the outfield so that Profar can occupy one of the middle infield spots, but thus far the Rangers haven't done that, as Kinsler has reportedly been reluctant to switch positions.
In any case, the Rangers will look to upgrade at first base and designated hitter this offseason. Lance Berkman is unlikely to return, and Mitch Moreland may not have done enough in 2013 to justify a starting spot. Years ago, the Rangers traded Chris Davis and Justin Smoak to pursue short-term upgrades at other positions, so it's no surprise that they don't now have a clear long-term option at first base. They were connected to Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu, but he's now headed to the White Sox. A return of Mike Napoli to Texas would be the Rangers' other obvious option to upgrade first base. After that, the market is thin, and the Rangers could decide to just go with Moreland and upgrade elsewhere. At designated hitter, one possibility for the Rangers might be to re-sign Cruz, move him to DH, and acquire another outfielder — if they're willing to spend big, Shin-Soo Choo might be a possibility.
With the potential departure of A.J. Pierzynski, the Rangers will also need to address the catcher position. A run at free agent Brian McCann might make sense — the Rangers reportedly asked about McCann at the trade deadline, and McCann would add a power bat that would help the Rangers' lineup.
Darvish and Holland appear set to anchor the Texas rotation, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Perez take a step forward, giving the Rangers an excellent 1-2-3 punch. Harrison, whose 2013 season was ruined by back issues, should be healthy in time for Spring Training as well. Alexi Ogando could take the fifth spot, and Nick Tepesch will likely provide a backup plan, which means the Rangers don't necessarily need to look outside the organization for a replacement for Matt Garza, who is a free agent.
The Rangers aren't sure whether they'll exercise their $9MM 2014 option on closer Joe Nathan, although that's probably a moot point, since Nathan can void the option, a right he earned by finishing more than 55 games in 2013 and 100 between 2012 and 2013. (Tim Dierkes predicts Nathan will earn a two-year, $26MM deal as a free agent.)
Elsewhere in the bullpen, Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross are effective and cheap, while Neal Cotts, who enjoyed a velocity bump and an age-33 breakout season in 2013, should still be a bargain in arbitration. Texas also re-signed Jason Frasor to a one-year, $1.75MM deal shortly after the season; he posted a 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 2013. The Rangers can also hope that Neftali Feliz makes a full recovery following 2012 Tommy John surgery — he returned in September and pitched decently, and the Rangers have him getting extra work in the Dominican this winter. Joakim Soria should factor into the 2014 bullpen as well. If Nathan does not return, Scheppers, Feliz and Soria might all be options at the closer position.
Recent reports have also connected the Rangers with top-flight pitchers like David Price and Masahiro Tanaka, who might be possibilities if Texas decides to make a splash. If the Rangers can't land one of those huge names, though, they will likely focus on their offense this offseason, since most of their biggest holes are position-player spots. Exactly how they do it will depend upon whether, for example, Cruz accepts the qualifying offer he'll likely receive, and whether Nathan returns.
The most likely scenario is that Cruz will return, either by accepting the qualifying offer or reaching some other sort of deal to stay in Texas, while Nathan will depart. If the Rangers plan to have a $125MM payroll, that would leave them very little to play with on the free agent market, and the Rangers need to acquire at least a catcher with that money.
That puts the Rangers in a tough spot, and so, despite reports that the Rangers' payroll will be similar to last year's, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them either go somewhat higher, or make a trade to free payroll. Dealing Kinsler would make sense, freeing a middle infield spot for Profar and allowing the Rangers to pursue a bat or two.
Underscoring the Rangers' current lineup quandary is the fact that, other than Profar, they don't have any young players ready to step into key roles. Profar, of course, has tremendous upside, and the Rangers' farm system has been good to them in the past several years. But that well appears to be drying, if only temporarily. The Rangers have a ton of interesting talent in the low minors, but top prospects Jorge Alfaro, Luis Sardinas, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo aren't likely to make an impact in 2014.
The Rangers won't have the payroll flexibility they'd probably like over the next few seasons, and it will be two or three years before the next wave of really talented Rangers prospects starts to make its mark. But with a talented core in place, the Rangers are still well-positioned to contend in 2014 and 2015, at the very least. And with the Astros in rebuilding mode and the Angels and Mariners in disarray, the Rangers have been dealt a strong hand. How they play it this offseason will go a long way toward determining how far they advance in 2014.
Quick Hits: Rangers, Price, Rodon, Cubs
Nolan Ryan might be missing out on a really fun offseason. Rival talent evaluators believe that the Rangers are going to be very aggressive this winter and pursue the likes of David Price, Masahiro Tanaka, and Brian McCann, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Texas is eager to right the ship after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2009. Here's more from around baseball..
- The 2014 draft class has potential to be the best class since 2011, write John Manuel and Clint Longenecker of Baseball America. Left-hander Carlos Rodon stands out as the top talent in the group while power pitcher Jeff Hoffman would be the No. 2 pick if the draft was today.
- Top international prospects Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres are pretty far along in their development considering that they're just 16, but they'll be working to adjust to the U.S. culturally, writes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. "They're not raw in their physical abilities, it's just being raw to the United States, how things are run," said Cubs Minor League hitting coordinator Anthony Iapoce. "As far as the way they play the game, they're pretty advanced for 16 years old. They're not raw as far as their tools. Their tools are in place."
- Pirates first baseman Justin Morneau will look to sign with a winner this offseason, writes Sid Hartman of the Star-Tribune. Because of that, a return to the Twins seems highly unlikely, unless he finds an extremely weak market for his services.
Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan To Retire
Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan announced today that he will retire, effective October 31. Ryan was named as the tenth president in club history in February 2008 and became CEO in March 2011.
“This is the right time for me to step down from my role of overseeing the Rangers organization,” said Ryan. “I am extremely proud of what this organization has accomplished. On the field, we have enjoyed great success at the major league level. The fans have supported us in record numbers the last two years and we have been able to upgrade the ballpark and enhance the in-game experience to reward that loyalty."
The legendary pitcher was said to be in a power struggle with GM Jon Daniels earlier this year and there was a great deal of speculation that Ryan would wind up as the odd man out. Ryan butted heads with Daniels over staffing and player personnel decisions and appeared to have a smaller role with the club this year than he has in the past.
AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Price, Dickerson, Hammel
The Orioles need an ace and Rays David Price will likely be on the trade market this winter. However, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com doesn't see Tampa Bay even considering an intra-division trade and the O's might not have enough to land him. More from the AL East..
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com has a hard time imagining that the Rays would part with Price in a deal with Texas without the inclusion of Jurickson Profar. Without the shortstop being involved, the Rangers would have to exhaust much of the top part of their farm system. While sacrificing Profar would certainly sting, Texas has to be tempted by the idea of pairing Price with Yu Darvish at the top of their rotation.
- The Orioles have a lot of questions to address when it comes to their 40-man roster, including what to do with Chris Dickerson, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. The outfielder was one of the final players cut during spring training and rejoined the big league club during the first week of the season.
- Jason Hammel made $6.75MM with the Orioles in 2013 and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com asks how much he is worth to the O's in 2014. The right-hander had a strong 2012 season but followed it up with a 4.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in '13.
White Sox, Astros, Rangers Considered Front-Runners For Abreu
Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu's name continues to generate buzz. The latest, courtesy of ESPN's Buster Olney, is that the Rangers, White Sox and Astros have emerged as the front-runners to sign the 26-year-old, and his price tag is expected to be around $70MM (Twitter link).
In yesterday's free agent profile of Abreu, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted that a six-year, $54MM contract would be required to sign him. Previous reports have indicated that he could cost as much as $60MM, but Olney's report pegs him significantly higher. Such a commitment would shatter the four-year, $36MM contract signed by Yoenis Cespedes and the seven-year, $42MM contract signed by Yasiel Puig. The success of that pairing could be a contributing factor to Abreu's lofty price tag.
As Tim noted in Abreu's profile, Abreu is viewed by many as an "all bat" player, with his first base defense being somewhat questionable. As such, it makes sense that three American League teams are seen as the favorites; each would have the luxury of giving him some at-bats at DH to mitigate that potential weakness.
In addition to Texas, Chicago and Houston, the Marlins are expected to be big players for Abreu. Earlier in the month, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that the Fish are "all-in" on trying to sign Abreu, who, along with Jose Fernandez, would give Miami an appealing Cuban pairing to market to their fanbase.
Rangers Claim Edwar Cabrera From Rockies
The Rangers have claimed Edwar Cabrera off waivers from the Rockies, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). Cabrera was expected to be removed from Colorado's 40-man roster this offseason.
Cabrera was sidelined all season with a shoulder injury. The left-hander made two big league starts for the Rockies in 2012 but spent the rest of the season in the minors. In 21 combined starts for the club's Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, Cabrera posted a 3.05 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
The Rockies dropped another pitcher from the 40-man roster earlier today when they outrighted Manny Corpas.
Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan
Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best. Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38. After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.
Strengths/Pros
With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341. That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract. He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then. Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods. He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons. His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves. Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.
Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure. From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings. He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total. Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh. Only four pitchers saved more games.
Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.
Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one. Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.
Weaknesses/Cons
Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year. Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season. Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times. I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars. Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.
Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03. He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish. It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.
Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%. It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings. However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012. Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.
Personal
Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee. He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management. Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December. His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.
Market
Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason. While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.
Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team. The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer. The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons. The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively. Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag. Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.
Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.
Expected Contract
Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age. Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling. Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons. Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jose Dariel Abreu About To Agree To $68MM Deal
9:28pm: The Rangers will not sign Abreu, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan tweets. The Astros and Red Sox likely will not, either. The White Sox still appear to be the favorites, although there might still be a "mystery team" involved.
7:29pm: Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu is "finalizing" a six-year, $68MM contract, likely with the White Sox, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Abreu is represented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management. The deal would be the largest contract ever for an international free agent. It would easily surpass the six-year, $42MM deal Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last June.
This afternoon, it emerged that Abreu was deciding between the White Sox, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers, Marlins and Giants had also shown interest.
Abreu, 26, defected from Cuba two months ago. He put up massive numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional, winning over-the-top praise for his power and earning comparisons to Ryan Howard. Some experts have raised doubts about his bat speed, however, and his defense and athleticism are not highly regarded. Tim Dierkes' profile of Abreu predicted he would receive a six-year, $54MM contract.
Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers
While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:
- The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
- Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
- The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
- James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
- Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.