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Jays To Retain Stairs, Cut Towers?

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I feel like with two guys named stairs and towers I could craft some sort of amusing play on words.  Oh well.  Here’s the latest on the Blue Jays.

  • They’ll pass on A-Rod, says J.P. Ricciardi.  No surprise there, but now it’s official.  They could still stand an upgrade at shortstop though.  Unless Travis Hafner teaches John McDonald how to hit.  Hafner needs to get himself in order first though.
  • The Jays also hope to re-sign Matt Stairs, who wants a raise from last year’s $850K.  Maybe $3MM would get it done.  Stairs was shielded from southpaws a bit but raked .289/.368/.549 overall in 357 ABs.  As I noted before, signing Stairs could result in Reed Johnson being non-tendered.
  • Speaking of non-tendering, Allan Ryan says "Josh Towers’ time as a Jay has clearly passed."  Doesn’t he at least get a gold watch?  Towers earned $2.9MM this year while posting a 5.38 ERA in 107 innings.  Unless the price gets to the silly Jason Marquis territory Towers could be the bargain of the winter for a team like the Padres.  By the way, he’s from California.  Check out a list of other non-tender candidates here.  The Cubs, by the way, haven’t decided on Mark Prior but could cut him and then offer him a lower deal.
  • The Jays hope to retain Sal Fasano and Joe Kennedy.

Should Cards Pursue A.J. Burnett?

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Viva El Birdos has a well thought-out discussion of the prospect of the Cardinals trading Chris Duncan for A.J. Burnett.  I have a few thoughts to add.

In my opinion Burnett effectively has a one-year deal, only worse.  That’s because he has the ability to opt out after the 2008 season.  So one of two things will happen:

1. Burnett is healthy enough to pitch 170+ innings, opts out, and secures a four-year deal somewhere.

2. Burnett is not healthy enough to pitch 150 innings and chooses to accept the $24MM owed to him over the 2009-10 time period (I consider 150-170 innings a gray area).  If a team trades for Burnett, endures an injury-plagued ’08, and is then saddled with further burden, that’s worse than a straight-up one-year commitment like Jon Garland’s. 

My other thought is that Duncan is not a fit for the Jays.  They’re locked in with Lyle Overbay at first and Frank Thomas at DH.  Between Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Alex Rios, the outfield corners are covered.  The Jays’ biggest need is a shortstop, also a need of the Cardinals.  I suppose Duncan could be part of a three-way deal. 

A takeaway, as noted at VEB, is that Burnett may well be the one available pitcher with #1 potential not named Johan Santana.  Another good point of theirs – he’s probably worth $12 mil as a 165 inning pitcher.

Random Rumors

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Some random rumors to help you get through your Thursday morning…

  • As you might imagine, the Rangers are keenly watching and hoping Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract.  That would free up $7MM for them in each of the next three years.  Rangers’ manager Ron Washington’s wish list includes a center fielder, corner outfielder, and first baseman.  The Rangers have been connected to Torii Hunter quite a bit, but they’ll have plenty of competition.
  • Will the exchange rate free up a bunch of money for the Blue Jays?  Perhaps even enough to make a pass at A-Rod?  Hey, fans can dream.  Mine!
  • Something I didn’t mention yesterday – Elijah Dukes is playing winter ball.  The Rays still don’t seem to have any room for him in the outfield or at DH.  Maybe the Marlins will get involved again?  Would Kevin Gregg work?    
  • Gordon Wittenmyer thinks the Cubs should keep Jacque Jones for 2008, which makes sense.  Wittenmyer also believes 22 year-old Felix Pie with 194 big league plate appearances, has proven conclusively that he can’t hit Major League pitching.  His suggestion is to trade Pie now.
  • Larry Borowsky wants the Cardinals to sign Milton Bradley.   
  • Jeff Sackmann recommends against Geoff Jenkins’ $9MM option for ’08, but the decision was tougher than you think.

Odds and Ends

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Here are some various trade rumors that didn’t quite have enough behind them for individual posts.

  • There’s a gossip section in the Boston Herald called Inside Track, written by Gayle Fee, Laura Raposa, and Erin Hayes.  They heard that Coco Crisp told fans at the recent Division Champs celebration that he expects to be dealt this winter to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury.  By most accounts Crisp has developed into a fine defensive center fielder, and he’s under contract for $4.75MM in ’08, $5.75MM in ’09, and an $8MM club option in ’10.  Perhaps Crisp could be used to acquire a third baseman in the event that Mike Lowell leaves and the Red Sox can’t sign A-Rod. 
  • Phil Wood of the Washington Examiner speculates that the Nationals could get in on Jason Bay.  Not the worst idea, but the Nats don’t seem to have the available young pitching for the deal.
  • Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution likes the Nate Robertson to Atlanta idea, tossing Joe Blanton and Shaun Marcum into the mix as other options.
  • Bob Wickman may quietly retire, bumming out these guys.
  • El Lefty Malo dissects recent comments from Giants GM Brian Sabean.
  • Peter Abraham suggests the Mets trade Carlos Beltran for pitching.

No Room For Adam Lind?

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According to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, a multiyear deal for Matt Stairs would leave Adam Lind’s 2008 playing time in question.

Vernon Wells and Alex Rios will lock up center and right field for many years.  And DH Frank Thomas is under contract for 2008 with a reasonable vesting option for ’09.  If Stairs is retained and gets another 300 ABs, Lind will be at best locked into a platoon.  And he and Stairs are both left-handed.

Lind, who turned 24 last July, began the season at Triple A.  He quickly got the call in April when Reed Johnson was injured.  Lind hit well initially, but was terrible in May and June as the full-time left fielder.  He was demoted by July and posted a good but not great performance until his September call-up.

Before the season, Lind was considered an "outstanding offensive prospect" by Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein.  Goldstein ranked Lind 43rd overall on his top 100 prospects list.  He obviously didn’t make much progress this year, making him a fine buy-low candidate for another GM.  If Stairs is re-signed, GMs should come calling for Lind.

As I mentioned here, the Jays’ primary need is a shortstop.  If J.P. Ricciardi decides to give up on Lind, he could use him in a deal for Edgar Renteria, Jack Wilson, or Miguel Tejada.

Blue Jays, Stairs Talking Extension

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39 year-old 1B/LF/RF Matt Stairs is having a remarkable year – he’s hitting .310/.385/.591 in 303 ABs for the Blue Jays.  Granted, he’s been sitting against lefties most of the time, but he’s still been the Jays’ second-most valuable offensive player behind Alex Rios.  And he’s earning less than a million bucks this year.

Stairs, a Canada native, would like to return for 2008.  According to the Toronto Star, talks have begun.  It definitely makes sense to keep him around for $2-3MM.  He can help out at both outfield corners, first base, and DH.  Bringing Stairs back for ’08 might encourage the Jays to non-tender Reed Johnson, a possibility mentioned in the team’s Needs and Luxuries post.

Blue Jays Sign John McDonald To Extension

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The Blue Jays today signed defensive-minded 32 year-old shortstop John McDonald to a two-year, $3.8MM deal.  It’s still cheap enough where he can be used as a backup, which is important because shortstop is Toronto’s biggest need.  I could be wrong but it seems that no amount of defense short of Ozzie Smith himself could justify a .600 OPS over a full season.

Needs and Luxuries: Toronto Blue Jays

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Today, let’s dissect the Jays.  A look at their 2008 setup:

C – Gregg Zaun
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Aaron Hill
SS – John McDonald
3B – Troy Glaus
LF – Reed Johnson/Adam Lind
CF – Vernon Wells
RF – Alex Rios
DH – Frank Thomas

SP – Roy Halladay
SP – A.J. Burnett
SP – Dustin McGowan
SP – Shaun Marcum
SP – Jesse Litsch/Josh Towers/Gustavo Chacin

Closer – B.J. Ryan
Setup – Jeremy Accardo

Needs

In general, the Jays’ main deficiency this year has been offense.  Their .326 OBP ranks 12th in the AL, their .422 SLG is 8th.  The lineup has plenty of underachievers – Wells, Overbay, Lind, and Johnson to name the chief culprits.  Johnson seems like a non-tender candidate.  But the other three are simply better than they’ve shown in 2007.  Wells has been playing through a shoulder injury this year, and surgery will be considered after the season.  Overbay broke a bone in his hand in June; he was hitting .256/.332/.464 up to that point.  Residual soreness after the surgery has led to a .223/.303/.326 line since.  Getting Wells and Overbay 100% healthy for ’08 is crucial.  As unpopular as it would be, the Jays should probably shut them both down right now.

If Wells does have shoulder surgery, a stopgap CF like Kenny Lofton might be a wise move.  But the obvious need for the Jays is shortstop.  No use pining for the should’ve-been-drafted Troy Tulowitzki.  The free agent market is weak – David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Juan Uribe, and Omar Vizquel.  J.P. Ricciardi has to hit the trade market.

His primary options: Edgar Renteria, Jack Wilson, Miguel Tejada, and Rafael Furcal.  The last two may be just wishful thinking for various reasons.  And J.P. had this to say regarding the Wilson rumors back in July: "We have absolutely no interest in Jack Wilson.  None."  Maybe a new GM in Pittsburgh can change his mind.  Renteria seems the best choice; would the Braves trade him for Burnett?  The oft-injured righty may opt out of his contract after 2008.         

Luxuries

If the Jays have an abundance of anything, it’s pitching.  They have the second best ERA in the league at 3.96.  As I mentioned earlier, trading Burnett could make sense.

Ricciardi should seriously consider moving Marcum at the peak of his value.  The homer-prone hurler has a 3.45 ERA in 130 innings as a starter, based heavily on an unsustainable low rate of hits allowed.  I like him – he’s plenty useful and has done a great job this year.  But this would be a prime example of selling high.  Maybe the Dodgers would part with Chin-lung Hu.

Towers stands a decent chance of being moved if he’s not non-tendered.  As we’ve discussed here before, he can help an NL team.  Perhaps the Bucs would swap Wilson for him.

The bullpen should probably be left untouched.  The Jays could assemble an elite crew with Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, League, and others.  The volatility of bullpens and players coming back from injuries might be reason to keep the apparent surplus.

Glaus Implicated For Steroid Use

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Here at MLBTR I mostly try to avoid steroid posts unless they have implications for the hot stove.  In the case of Blue Jays third baseman Troy Glaus, a steroid connection definitely crosses into our realm.  It was recently revealed at SI.com that Glaus received steroids in 2003-04. 

It appears that steroid use played a large role in Glaus’s contracts.  We may never know whether his home run crown in 2000 was influenced by performance-enhancing drugs.  But that season led the Angels to lock him up through his arbitration years at four years, $22MM. 

In July of 2003, Glaus landed awkwardly trying to field a Julio Lugo bunt.  This was first labeled a bruise, but the ultimate result was a partial tear of his rotator cuff and a frayed labrum.  He was shut down for the rest of ’03 but chose rehab over surgery.  Glaus actually lost weight that winter.  He got off to a decent start in ’04 but by May elected to have the surgery.  That he made it back onto the field by September may have been aided by steroids.  He hit seven home runs that month.

It’s tough to say whether any teams suspected Glaus of steroid use at that point.  I often wonder to what extent these kinds of rumors float around inside the game and whether they influence GM decisions.  The Angels decided to let Glaus leave via free agency in favor of Dallas McPherson.  Did they know anything?  The Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers, and Orioles all had interest in Glaus during the winter of 2004-05.  He wound up with Arizona for four years, $45MM.  That level of interest says to me that teams did not suspect Glaus of steroid use.

Looking to shed salary just one season into Glaus’s contract, the D’Backs sent him to Toronto in December of ’05.  An $11.25MM player option for ’09 was added to convince him to waive his no-trade clause. 

The Jays made Glaus available this summer, but the lack of interest was surprising.  $24MM over 2008-09 isn’t prohibitive for a power bat.  Glaus cleared waivers in August – no team risked a claim.  Even given Glaus’s full no-trade clause, the market’s apathy toward him seemed odd.  I wonder if perhaps there was already a buzz within the game regarding his steroid use. 

Padres Like Josh Towers

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Throw 30 year-old starter Josh Towers into a big ol’ ballpark in the National League, and he could be a very useful back-rotation guy.  The Jays already saw this happen with Dave Bush.  With a 3.6 K/BB and a home run problem, Towers is definitely San Diego’s type.

Turns out that Padres GM Kevin Towers pursued Josh Towers this summer but wouldn’t part with Nick Hundley, Will Venable, or David Freese.  The Jays can either go to arbitration with Towers this winter or nontender him.  Even if arbitration would result in a salary around $4MM, it might make sense to sign and then trade him.

You can view my complete list of non-tender candidates here.

Another tidbit: the same San Diego Union-Tribune column linked above mentions that the Padres asked for Tony Gwynn Jr. from the Brewers during the Scott Linebrink discussions.

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