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Diamondbacks Avoid Arbitration With Christian Walker, Paul Sewald

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The Diamondbacks and first baseman Christian Walker have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make a salary of $10.9MM in 2024. Right-hander Paul Sewald, a client of ISE Baseball, has also settled and will make $7.35MM this year.

Walker, 33 in March, has settled in nicely as an above-average first baseman for the Snakes. He hit 33 home runs last year and had solid walk and strikeout rates of 9.4% and 19.2%, respectively. His .258/.333/.497  batting line translated to a wRC+ of 120, indicating he was 20% above league average. His defense was also highly regarded, leading to 12 Outs Above Average, nine Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 3.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

All of those numbers were quite close to his 2022 season, when he hit 36 homers, walked at a 10.3% clip and struck out in 19.6% of his plate appearances. He had a batting line of .242/.327/.477, 123 wRC+, 14 OAA, 17 DRS and 5.4 UZR.

This is his third trip through arbitration, as he made $2.6MM in 2022 and $6.5MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $12.7MM in 2024, but he’ll come in almost $2MM below that. It’s his final season of club control before he’s slated for free agency.

Sewald, 34 in May, is also in his final season before hitting the open market. A late bloomer, he established himself as an excellent reliever in a breakout season with the Mariners in 2021, posting a 3.06 earned run average. He carried that over into 2022 and lowered his ERA to 2.67, racking up 20 saves in the process.

He continued to serve as Seattle’s closer until a deadline trade that sent Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss to the Mariners. Sewald continued to pitch well and stabilized the bullpen in the desert, helping the club push all the way to the World Series. He finished the year with a 3.12 ERA and 34 saves, plus six more saves in the playoffs. He made $1.735MM in 2022, his first arbitration season, then $4.1MM last year. He was projected for a raise to $7.3MM this year but will barely edge past that.

Rays, Shane McClanahan Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Rays have agreed to a two-year, $7.2MM contract with ace Shane McClanahan, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’ll buy out the left-hander’s first two seasons of arbitration. McClanahan, who underwent Tommy John surgery in August, will spend the bulk of the contract’s first year rehabbing. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.6MM this coming season, based on the strength of his pre-arbitration platform. Murray adds that McClanahan’s 2025 salary will be boosted by $120K for every start he makes in 2024. The Rays can control the southpaw through the 2027 season.

McClanahan, 26, was the No. 31 overall draft pick in 2018 and has arguably surpassed even those lofty draft standards with his performance to date. Since making his MLB debut in the 2020 postseason, the southpaw has emerged as Tampa Bay’s clear top starter. From 2021-23, he logged 404 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 28% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 46.8% ground-ball rate.

McClanahan has averaged 97 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons and was the sixth-place finisher in 2022 Cy Young voting in the American League. Were it not for a shoulder impingement that cost him three weeks late in the 2022 season, McClanahan might’ve had a legitimate chance at winning the award — or at least overtaking Dylan Cease as the runner-up. When he landed on the injured list, he’d pitched 147 1/3 innings with a dominant 2.20 earned run average, a massive 32.5% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate. Upon returning, he stumbled with a 5.21 ERA in his final four starts, dropping him down the ballot that eventually saw Justin Verlander win the award in unanimous fashion.

In all likelihood, last August’s Tommy John surgery will keep McClanahan shelved into the 2024 season’s final month or perhaps wipe out his ’24 season entirely. He’s one of three key starters who suffered a major injury for Tampa Bay last year, joining Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery). That trio of injuries has depleted the Rays’ once-enviable pitching depth. Their current quintet of Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell and young righties Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley has plenty of upside but lacks stability (particularly when considering the injury histories of veterans Eflin and Civale). Former top prospect Shane Baz will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point, but the Rays still seem likely to add some rotation help this winter.

As for McClanahan, he figures to be back at full strength for Opening Day 2025. In an ideal world, both he and Baz will recapture the form that made them elite pitching prospects (and, in McClanahan’s case, a two-time All-Star) and lead the starting staff for several years. McClanahan finished the 2023 season with 2.158 years of MLB service, making him a slam-dunk Super Two player and setting the stage for him to be arb-eligible four times. This two-year deal takes care of the first two of those arb years, but he’ll be eligible again both in 2026 and 2027.

White Sox, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The White Sox avoided arbitration with righty Dylan Cease by agreeing to an $8MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided.

Cease, a client of the Boras Corporation, fell short of our projection in agreeing to a $2.3MM raise over last year’s salary.  As a player with four years of Major League service time, Cease will be eligible for arbitration once more for 2025 before reaching free agency.

Cease, who recently turned 28, had an off-year results-wise in 2023 with his ERA climbing to 4.58.  Still, his 97 starts over the last three seasons leads all of MLB, and he finished second in the 2022 AL Cy Young voting coming off a 2.20 ERA.  Cease averages about 96 miles per hour on his fastball and misses plenty of bats, though he also issues a lot of free passes.

Cease remains one of the top remaining trade candidates of the 2023-24 offseason.  New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been fielding inquiries, and there’s likely at least a half-dozen suitors.  You can read up on the latest Cease rumors here.

At present, though, Cease leads a projected White Sox rotation that also includes new additions Erick Fedde, Mike Soroka, and Chris Flexen, as well as holdover Michael Kopech.

Brewers, Willy Adames Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and shortstop Willy Adames have avoided arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make $12.25MM in 2024.

The 2023 season was a slight step back for Adames at the plate but he continued to excel on defense. He hit 24 home runs last year, a bit below the 25 he hit in 2021 and the 31 in 2022. His .217 batting average was also the lowest of his career. He made up for that somewhat by having a career-best walk rate of 11.1% but his overall offense was still below average, leading to a wRC+ of 94.

But on the other side of his game, Adames produced 16 Outs Above Average, second only to Dansby Swanson among all big league shortstops. His 5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating was also tied for second in the majors among shortstops, behind Francisco Lindor in this case, while his eight Defensive Runs Saved put him in the top 10. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.4 wins above replacement on the year even with that slightly disappointing offense.

This is the third arbitration season for Adames, who made $4.6MM in 2022 and then $8.7MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Adames for a raise to $12.4MM in 2024 and he will come in just a shade beneath that.

Adames has been a speculative trade candidate this winter, a reflection of his talent, his escalating salary and the fact that he is now one year removed from free agency. The Brewers have occasionally made trades of notable players before they reach the open market, with Josh Hader as the most famous example. As of a few months ago, the club was set to have Adames, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff all playing their final arbitration seasons on eight-figure deals in 2024. But Woodruff required shoulder surgery that is going to have him miss most or all of the upcoming season, which led to his non-tender.

There have still plenty of rumors this winter, moreso about Burnes than about Adames. If the club were to consider trading their shortstop, it would be a tricky balancing act with the weak crop of free agents for the position. On the one hand, they would surely get aggressive offers since he is far better than anyone on the open market. But on the other hand, they wouldn’t be able to easily replace him by signing a free agent.

At this point, given the lack of meaningful rumors, it seems as though Adames may stick with the club into the 2024 campaign. If they remain in contention as planned, he should be able to stick as their primary shortstop through the season, when he will be a qualifying offer candidate. Though if the club were to fall out of the playoff race, he should be one of the top trade candidates available at the July trade deadline.

Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration

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The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process.  Fried is represented by CAA Sports.

Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023.  He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain.  The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.

This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season.  He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23.  Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure.  So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season.  Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker.  His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider’s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time.  Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one.  Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.

Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.  Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo.  After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.

If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class.  You can check that out here.

Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.

Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.

Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.

Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.

The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.

Astros Outright Joel Kuhnel

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Right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared outright waivers, the Astros informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He has the right to elect free agency since this is his second career outright assignment; the team didn’t announce whether he’ll do so. Houston had designated him for assignment last week as the corresponding move for their waiver claim of Declan Cronin from the White Sox.

Houston acquired Kuhnel in a cash transaction with the Reds in June. He spent most of his tenure in Triple-A, appearing in 17 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Over 19 2/3 innings there, he posted a 5.03 ERA. Kuhnel pitched seven times with the Astros, allowing five runs with three strikeouts and walks apiece through 9 2/3 frames.

An 11th-round pick in 2016, Kuhnel has appeared at the MLB level in four of the past five years. His only extended work came in 2022. He soaked up 58 innings for Cincinnati that season, pitching to a 6.36 ERA in mostly low-leverage relief. For his career, he has allowed 6.02 earned runs per nine across 83 2/3 frames. Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is below average, but he has kept the ball on the ground on a lofty 52.5% of batted balls.

The grounder rate and a fastball that lands around 95 MPH on average should allow Kuhnel to find a minor league deal elsewhere if he chooses free agency. If he accepts the outright assignment, he’d likely receive an invite to Houston’s Spring Training camp as non-roster relief depth.

Pirates Sign Sergio Alcantara To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve signed infielder Sergio Alcantara and righty Hunter Stratton to minor league deals and invited them to spring training. They’re two of a slate of eight NRIs announced by Pittsburgh today, although the other six — outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Billy McKinney, righties Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan, infielder Jake Lamb, lefty Michael Plassmeyer — have all been previously reported.

Alcantara, 27, has appeared in three big league seasons, spending time with the Tigers, Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s a career .209/.281/.343 hitter in 502 MLB plate appearances and carries a .275/.389/.412 slash in a comparable amount of playing time at the Triple-A level. Alcantara is an above-average runner with a plus glove and arm at shortstop, but his sub-par track record at the plate leaves plenty to be desired. He’s played shortstop, third base and second base in his limited big league career to date and will give the Bucs some depth all around their infield.

Stratton, 27, was the Pirates’ 16th-round pick back in 2017. He made his MLB debut this past season and pitched well in a small sample, holding opponents to three runs on nine hits and three walks with 10 punchouts in a dozen innings of work. Pittsburgh non-tendered him earlier this winter.

Stratton has long demonstrated worrying command issues in the minor leagues, however, and those were on full display again in 2023. Stratton notched a solid 3.99 ERA with a hefty 30.6% strikeout rate in 56 1/3 Triple-A frames, but that was accompanied by a 12.8% walk rate. He’s never posted a single-season walk rate south of 11.8% and has issued a free pass to 13.1% of the opponents he’s faced as a professional. Add in 24 hit batters in his career, and nearly 16% of Stratton’s opponents have reached base without needing to put a ball in play. Stratton throws hard, sitting just shy of 96 mph with his heater, and can clearly miss bats in bunches, but he’ll likely need to improve his command to carve out a longer look at the MLB level.

Cubs Sign Shota Imanaga To Four-Year Deal

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The Cubs officially announced the signing of left-hander Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee. The deal contains a fifth-year team option and could reach $80MM. The Cubs will need to decide after the 2025 and potentially ’26 seasons whether to exercise the option for 2028. If the club declines the option at either point, Imanaga would have the ability to opt out and become a free agent. He receives limited no-trade rights and would earn a full no-trade clause if the Cubs exercise either of their options.

On top of what they’ll pay Imanaga, the Cubs owe a posting fee to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball. That’ll initially be a $9.825MM sum and would increase if the team exercises the option and/or Imanaga unlocks more money via escalators. The Cubs would owe the BayStars an additional 15% of whatever money the southpaw earns beyond the initial guarantee.

It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. Even with the conditional opt-out possibilities, a $53MM guarantee and an $80MM maximum value comes in below general expectations.

Imanaga has spent the past eight seasons with the BayStars in his home country. He owns a career 3.18 ERA in a league generally regarded as the second-best level in the world. Imanaga has turned in a 3.08 or better in each of the past three seasons, including a sub-3.00 figure for the last two years.

During the 2023 campaign, he allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine through 148 innings. He led all NPB hurlers with 174 strikeouts, narrowly topping Dodgers’ $325MM signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that regard. That’s an impressive 29.2% clip that’s well above the 22.1% MLB average. He paired that with a tidy 4% walk rate, ranking him among NPB’s best pitchers at dominating the strike zone.

Despite the strong strikeout and walk profile, Imanaga doesn’t come with the kind of excitement generated by Yamamoto. That’s in part due to age. Having turned 30 last September, Imanaga is a typical age for a first-time free agent starter. More importantly, his repertoire points more toward a projection as a solid mid-rotation arm than a potential ace.

Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke before the offseason suggested Imanaga profiles as a #3/4 pitcher in a big league rotation. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser pegged him as a #4/5 type in a scouting report from early December. The 5’10” hurler typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, touching the 94-95 MPH range in shorter stints.

Evaluators have credited him with above-average life on the pitch, allowing it to play for whiffs at the top of the strike zone despite the pedestrian velocity. Glaser writes that Imanaga backs that up with an above-average split but suggests his MLB upside may be capped by middling breaking stuff.

The main concern in Imanaga’s statistical profile has been the longball. He surrendered 17 homers last season, the second-most of any NPB pitcher. While some of that is attributable to workload — he was 15th in innings pitched — it hints at a fly-ball profile that could give some evaluators pause. The Yankees reportedly stayed on the periphery of the bidding in part because of concerns that Imanaga wouldn’t profile well in a very hitter-friendly home park. Statcast’s Park Factors rate Wrigley Field as slightly favorable to home runs, but it’s not among the top handful of hitting venues in MLB.

Imanaga’s stellar strikeout/walk profile and consistently strong results generated a decent amount of reported interest. The Red Sox, Giants and Angels were all reported to be in the bidding of late. He’ll bypass those teams to step into a Chicago rotation that seems likely to lose Marcus Stroman to free agency.

Imanaga joins Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon as locks for the Opening Day rotation. The likes of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Ben Brown could battle for the #5 job. There’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office to add another starter if they want to solidify the final spot and push all their younger, unproven arms into depth roles.

The fee to the BayStars is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of further spending ($450K). The 15% rate also applies to whatever future earnings Imanaga secures.

A posting fee is on top of the sum to the player but not included in the deal’s competitive balance tax calculation. The average annual value checks in at $13.25MM. According to Roster Resource, that’ll push the team’s CBT number north of $198MM. That’s nowhere near next year’s $237MM tax threshold. Evenly distributing the salaries would move the team’s 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $191MM — slightly beyond last year’s approximate $184MM Opening Day mark.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Cubs had an agreement with Imanaga. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of various escalators and option provisions and the deal’s $80MM maximum value. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the four-year, $53MM agreement, as well as the club option/opt-out possibilities after years two and three. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported the no-trade provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Sign Cody Thomas

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of outfielder Cody Thomas this week. The Octagon client became a minor league free agent at the end of the 2023 season.

An Oklahoma product, Thomas joined the professional ranks in 2016 as a Dodger draftee. Los Angeles traded him to the A’s shortly before Spring Training in 2021. Oakland added him to the 40-man roster after that season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Thomas reached the big leagues the following September.

The A’s gave Thomas brief MLB looks in each of the past two years. He made 10 appearances in 2022. Oakland designated the left-handed hitter for assignment but kept him in the organization after he cleared outright waivers. He made it back to the big leagues in July and got into 19 more games. Between the two seasons, he hit .250/.308/.333 with one homer over 78 plate appearances.

Oakland again waived Thomas in late August, sending him to the open market at year’s end. Rather than take a minor league contract, the 29-year-old heads to Japan. The Buffaloes are surely intrigued by the .292/.356/.585 batting line which Thomas has managed in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. Even in a very favorable Pacific Coast League hitting environment, that’s an impressive showing against minor league arms. He’ll look to carry that over against NPB pitching and could reemerge on the MLB radar a year or two from now.

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