Cardinals Activate Dylan Carlson From Injured List
TODAY: The Cardinals have officially announced Carlson’s activation. Pages was optioned to make room for the center fielder on the club’s active roster.
May 4: The Cardinals are set to activate outfielder Dylan Carlson from the 10-day injured list tomorrow, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Catcher Pedro Pages is expected to be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Woo also relays that left-hander Matthew Liberatore is expected to move from the bullpen to the rotation to take the ball in tomorrow afternoon’s game against the White Sox.
Carlson, 25, appeared poised to enter the season as the everyday center fielder in St. Louis until a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder sidelined him just before Opening Day. In his absence, the Cardinals have scuffled to a 15-18 start that leaves them just half a game out of last place in the NL Central. Much of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of offense from the club’s lineup, which has posted a collective 86 wRC+ that ranks sixth from the bottom in the majors. That figure has been dragged down by brutal offensive production from the club’s outfield mix, which to this point in the season has consisted of a combination of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani. With Donovan’s 92 wRC+ leading the pack, Cardinals outfielders have combined for a paltry slash line of .188/.268/.294 with an NL-worst wRC+ of 66.
Given those significant struggles, Carlson’s return to action is welcome news for fans in St. Louis even as he himself is far from a sure thing offensively. The club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft, Carlson was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport when he reached the majors during the shortened 2020 season and earned a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting during his first full campaign the following year. While he hit a solid .266/.343/.437 in 149 games that year, he’s struggled to repeat that production over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Carlson has slashed just .230/.316/.364 with a below-average 94 wRC+ in 204 combined games. Still, those numbers are at least decent for a center fielder and would represent a major upgrade over the club’s current production at the position, where is hitting .182/.280/.227 with a wRC+ of 56.
As for Liberatore, the 24-year-old has performed admirably in 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, but a lackluster 16.4% strikeout rate and a much higher 4.18 FIP suggest that the lefty’s solid results have benefited from good fortune. While those questionable peripherals aren’t necessarily a reason for the Cardinals to avoid using him in the rotation, starting Liberatore is nonetheless a confusing choice given the lefty hasn’t thrown more than 38 pitches in a game since March and has struggled badly in the role throughout his major league career with a 5.72 ERA through 18 starts.
It’s not yet clear if Liberatore’s move to the rotation is a sign that he’s the club’s long-term replacement for veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is reportedly expected to miss at least “a couple of weeks” with a lower back strain, or if Liberatore’s start tomorrow will merely be a spot start before he passes the baton to one of the club’s other options, such as southpaw Zack Thompson or prospect Sem Robberse. Thompson made two starts for the club earlier this season but was optioned to Triple-A after allowing ten runs in 3 1/3 innings of work following a move to the bullpen, while Robberse has dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA in six starts but has yet to make his major league debut.
A’s Sign Seth Elledge To Minor League Deal
Right-hander Seth Elledge and the Athletics have agreed on a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on Elledge’s MLB.com profile page.
Elledge, 28 later this month, was a fourth-round pick by the Mariners in the 2017 draft and made his major league debut with the Cardinals during the shortened 2020 season. As a member of the St. Louis bullpen, Elledge posted a 4.63 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He sports a solid 24% strikeout rate at the big league level but struggled badly with his control to the tune of a 14.4% walk rate, leaving him with a lackluster 4.90 FIP.
The right-hander found himself designated for assignment by the Cardinals late in October of 2021 and hasn’t found his way back to a big league mound since despite having shuffled around the big leagues a great deal in recent years. Elledge signed with the Braves on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season and selected him to the big league roster that offseason rather than allow him to return to minor league free agency, but he was designated for assignment in early April without making it into a game.
He spent the next several months riding the transactional carousel as he was claimed off waivers by the Mets and Tigers before ultimately clearing waivers with Detroit and electing free agency in late June, only to return to the Braves on a minor league deal just days later. The Braves once again select him to the roster and even placed him on the active roster in July, but he lasted on the roster for just a few days without making it into a game before once again being designated for assignment, electing free agency, and re-signing on a minor league deal.
Going forward, Elledge figures to act as non-roster bullpen depth for the A’s at the Triple-A level, where he’s posted a 4.69 ERA with a strong 27.8% strikeout rate and a tolerable 9.2% walk rate since the start of the 2022 season. Right-hander Alex Speas is the club’s only healthy bullpen option on the 40-man roster who isn’t already part of the club’s big league relief corps, meaning Elledge could have a viable path to the big league roster if he can position himself to be the next man up among a group of non-roster veterans at Triple-A with the A’s such as Vinny Nittoli and Gerardo Reyes. Oakland is currently relying on the likes of Michael Kelly and Dany Jimenez to fill out the middle of the bullpen ahead of the club’s late-inning arms, led by breakout closer Mason Miller.
Phillies Place Trea Turner On 10-Day Injured List
1:43PM: The strain is a significant one, as Turner told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and other reporters that he’ll miss a minimum of six weeks.
12:56PM: The Phillies announced that Trea Turner has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain. Infielder Kody Clemens was called up from Triple-A to take Turner’s place on the active roster.
The placement isn’t a surprise, as Turner’s injury forced him to make an early departure from yesterday’s 4-3 Phillies win over the Giants. In the fourth inning, Turner was on second base when Jordan Hicks threw a fourth ball to batter Bryce Harper, and the ball bounced off catcher Tom Murphy‘s glove for a passed ball. Turner hustled down to third base and then all the way home to score on the play, but at a cost, as Edmundo Sosa took over at shortstop for Turner in the top of the fifth.
After getting off to an infamously slow start in 2023 (the first year of his 11-year, $300MM deal with Philadelphia), Turner has been far better in the early going of the 2024 campaign. The shortstop is hitting .343/.392/.460 with two home runs, 27 runs scored, and 10 steals in 11 attempts. A whopping .421 BABIP and a .379 wOBA that is far above his .330 xwOBA indicate that Turner has enjoyed some good fortune in posting his bottom-line numbers, even though Turner’s excellent speed has always led to strong BABIP results.
Turner has been one of the chief reasons why the Phillies have a league-high 22 wins. There’s no easy way for the Phils to replace that production, and the team can only hope Turner’s strain is minor enough that he can return quickly and fully recovered. Sosa will get most of the playing time at shortstop in Turner’s absence, with Clemens stepping into Sosa’s role as the team’s utilityman. Philadelphia could also possibly use Bryson Stott at shortstop and deploy Whit Merrifield more often at second base, though Merrifield is off to a slow start at the plate.
Ricardo Pinto Elects Free Agency
TODAY: Pinto has elected free agency, the Phillies announced this evening. He’ll return to the open market with an eye toward finding a fresh deal elsewhere.
May 2: The Phillies announced that right-hander Ricardo Pinto has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A LeHigh Valley. This is his second career outright, meaning he has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it’s not yet clear if he’s chosen to do so.
Pinto, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Phils in the winter and was added to their roster a few days into the season. He made six appearances, tossing 10 2/3 innings, but allowed 13 earned runs in that time. He struck out eight batters and walked five.
He likely didn’t deserve to have results quite that bad. His 59.1% ground ball rate was quite strong while his .405 batting average on balls in play and 51.7% strand rate are both on the unlucky side. His 6.04 FIP and 4.19 SIERA each paint a nicer portrait than Pinto’s ERA. Regardless, he was bumped off the Phillies’ roster and none of the 29 other teams decided to take a chance on him. He previously pitched in the big leagues in 2017 and 2019 but those stints didn’t go well either, so he now has a career ERA of 9.07 in 42 2/3 career innings.
As mentioned, Pinto has the right to elect free agency but he’s listed on the roster of the IronPigs, which seems to suggest he’ll stick with the Phils as non-roster depth.
White Sox Release Brett Phillips From Minors Deal
The White Sox have released outfielder Brett Phillips, according to James Fegan from SoxMachine. Phillips had signed a minor league deal with the club back in January.
Phillips, who will celebrate his 30th birthday at the end of the month, is a veteran of seven big league seasons who first made his debut with the Brewers back in 2017. He’s generally struggled at the plate throughout his career with a .187/.272/.347 line that’s 29% worse than league average by measure of wRC+, but has nonetheless earned his spot on major league clubs in recent years thanks to his skills on the basepaths and in the field. During his time with the Rays from 2020 to 2022, Phillips swiped 24 bases in 27 attempts while recording +21 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved.
Since leaving the Rays, however, Phillips has faltered somewhat in all aspects of his game as he’s struggled to find consistent playing time at the big league level. He appeared in eight games with the Orioles down the stretch in 2022 but hit a paltry .118/.118/.235 that was well below even his usual standards. He joined the Angels on a big league deal last year but made it into just 39 games with the club while spending much of the year at the Triple-A level. In the majors, Phillips was graded as a scratch defender by both OAA and DRS last year as he stole three bases in four attempts and struck out in more than half of his 71 trips to the plate.
The struggles Phillips has endured in both find and taking advantage of opportunities at the big league level led him to sign a minor league deal with the White Sox shortly after the new year that seemingly positioned him with a strong shot to make the club’s roster as a fourth outfielder out of Spring Training. Unfortunately, that didn’t come to fruition as the White Sox later added defensively-gifted youngster Dominic Fletcher via trade while signing veteran outfielders Kevin Pillar and Robbie Grossman in free agency, all three of whom made the roster over Phillips.
Since then, the White Sox have made changes to the big league roster, with both Fletcher and Pillar moving off the 26-man as a result. Phillips was passed over once again, however, as the White Sox instead turned to non-roster veterans Tommy Pham and Rafael Ortega to fill out the club’s outfield mix while Luis Robert Jr. is on the shelf. With Phillips evidently buried on the Chicago depth chart, it appears the sides have made the decision to part ways in order to allow the center fielder to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
It’s unclear where Phillips might find that role, given his struggles at the Triple-A level this year. While he’s only stepped to the plate 57 times with his former club’s affiliate in Charlotte, he’s struck out in 47.4% of those at-bats with a slash line of .120/.228/.280. That being said, he could still be a worthwhile depth option for a club looking to add a quality defender in center field who can serve as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement off the bench.
Mets Promote Christian Scott
TODAY: The Mets have officially selected Scott’s contract, and also called right-hander Cole Sulser up from Triple-A. Right-hander Dedniel Nunez and left-hander Danny Young were optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding moves.
MAY 2: The Mets are planning to promote pitching prospect Christian Scott, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. McDaniel adds that Scott will likely make his debut on Saturday against the Rays. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will need a corresponding move to add him.
Scott, 25 in June, was a fifth-round selection of the Mets in 2021 but he has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he tossed 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a fairly pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but stronger underlying metrics. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.
Last year, he eventually rose as high as Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames for the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while limiting his walks to a tiny 3.6% rate. He came into 2024 ranked as the #98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at #99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlighted that he converted his changeup into a splitter, adding a strong third option to what had previously been mostly a sinker/slider combo.
He didn’t crack the season-opening lists at either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but has vaulted himself up to #62 on BA’s most recent update. That huge jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has been dominating this year, apart from some homer troubles. Through five Triple-A starts here in 2024, he has fanned 38.3% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 6.4% rate. But thanks to seven fly balls clearing the fences, he has a 3.20 ERA.
In addition to pushing him up prospect lists, that strong performance will get him to the majors. The Mets currently have a rotation of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser and José Buttó. The only optionable guy in that group is Buttó, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com speculates that Scott’s promotion might be related to the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so perhaps Scott’s promotion will just be a spot start to give the others a breather.
The length of Scott’s stay might also depend on other factors. Each of Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will impact how the rotation is configured as they season rolls along. Senga and Peterson on on the 60-day IL and can’t return until late May but Megill recently began a rehab assignment and could therefore be an option in a few weeks. Scott’s performance in his big league debut will naturally impact the decisions as well.
Regardless of how long Scott spends in the bigs for the rest of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is already more than a month old. The new CBA allows top prospects to earn a full year even if called up late if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that won’t apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player has to start the year on two of three top 100 lists at ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only on one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, even if he sticks in the big leagues from here on out.
Giants Place Patrick Bailey On 7-Day Concussion IL
The Giants placed catcher Patrick Bailey on the seven-day injured list for concussion-related symptoms. Blake Sabol was called up from Triple-A to take Bailey’s spot on the active roster.
Alec Bohm fouled a ball off Bailey’s mask in the first inning of San Francisco’s 4-3 loss to the Phillies yesterday. (In a costly game for both teams, Trea Turner also suffered a hamstring strain that has resulted in an IL trip.) Bailey tried to stay in the game but in the next inning, he left the field and was replaced by Tom Murphy behind the plate. The Giants didn’t immediately place Bailey in concussion protocol, but the catcher did receive treatment and was announced as suffering from blurred vision.
The specialized seven-day version of the IL allows players and teams a little extra flexibility when dealing with potential concussions. If a player passes tests, he only has to miss seven days instead of the standard 10 days, and a team is likewise not left short-handed on its roster if a player is going day-to-day while dealing with any lingering symptoms. It also removes any inclination for the player to try and play through the symptoms, which carries increased danger given the nature of head-related injury.
In the best-case scenario, Bailey would be back in the Giants’ lineup in seven days’ time, though the team might be a little more careful with its franchise catcher given his past concussion history. As MLB.com’s Maria Guardado notes, Bailey has been playing wearing a Q-collar device for extra safety since he went on the seven-day IL last September, though he was able to return from that stint in a minimal amount of time.
After making his MLB debut last season, Bailey’s excellent defense established him as San Francisco’s catcher of the future, and he has taken some big steps forward at the plate in 2024. Bailey had a modest .233/.285/.359 slash line and seven homers over 353 plate appearances in 2023, but he has hit .278/.344/.456 with three home runs in his first 91 PA this season. With the Statcast numbers largely backing up this breakout, Bailey’s absence is an even bigger blow to a Giants lineup that is lacking in consistent production.
The combination of Murphy and Sabol will hold the fort at catcher until Bailey is back. Murphy has posted some very good numbers in limited or part-time duty with the Mariners but his bat has been cold so far in 2024, while Sabol is now set to receive his first MLB playing time of 2024. Sabol was a Rule 5 pick in 2022, and he spent the entire 2023 season on San Francisco’s roster playing as a part-time catcher and left fielder. Sabol hit .235/.301/.394 with 13 home runs in 344 PA during his rookie season.
Reds Release Mike Ford
1:35PM: The Reds officially announced Ford’s release.
TODAY, 8:18AM: The Reds will release Ford, Jon Heyman reports (via X).
MAY 1: First baseman Mike Ford has exercised an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Reds, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The team will now have 48 hours to decide whether to select Ford to the big league roster or grant him his release.
The 31-year-old Ford had a massive spring training performance with Cincinnati and has carried that over into the regular season in Triple-A Louisville. The slugger mashed at a ridiculous .455/.486/.727 clip and belted three homers in 31 spring plate appearances. He’s now hitting .297/.381/.538 with six homers for the Bats and has drawn walks at a hearty 11.4% clip against a manageable 19.4% strikeout rate.
Ford’s strong spring and Triple-A production come on the heels of a nice performance with the 2023 Mariners. He hit just .228 but reached base at a .323 clip and slugged .475 in 251 trips to the plate. The longtime Yankees farmhand circled the bases on 16 home runs last year and also smacked six doubles. His 9.6% walk rate was better than league-average, but his 32.3% strikeout rate was well north of average and a notable red flag.
Ford has long had plus power and questionable contact rates. That makes this year’s small sample in Triple-A worthy of some skepticism but also intriguing for the Reds or any other team seeking a low-cost source of lefty power — be it off the bench or in a more prominent first base/designated hitter role. Ford hasn’t been allowed to face lefties much in his career but torched them in 24 plate appearances last year and has actually fared better against fellow southpaws in his career at large. It’s only 108 plate appearances, but he’s a .268/.343/.577 hitter versus lefties compared to .200/.303/.389 against righties (in a much larger sample of 611 plate appearances).
For the Reds, there could be some temptation to bring Ford to the big league roster. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has made 25 starts at first base but is batting only .196/.222/.314 with a 28.7% strikeout rate and just a 2.8% walk rate in 108 plate appearances. The former top prospect had a nice debut showing in 2023 (.270/.328/.477 in 241 plate appearances) but has been 57% worse than average at the plate in ’24, by measure of wRC+.
Designated hitter/outfielder Nick Martini has also cooled after a blistering start to the season; he homered twice in the season opener and slashed .290/.303/.677 through his first 33 plate appearances but has just five hits in 46 subsequent plate appearances. Martini has a minor league option remaining but could be a DFA candidate, given his journeyman status. Encarnacion-Strand has a full slate of three minor league option years remaining, if Cincinnati wants to give him a breather in Louisville to get back on track. Speculatively speaking, swapping out Ford for either of Martini or Encarnacion-Strand makes some sense in the short term.
Braves Place Pierce Johnson On 15-Day Injured List
The Braves placed right-hander Pierce Johnson on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. Johnson’s placement is backdated to May 1. Atlanta also announced that Jackson Stephens‘ contract has been selected from Triple-A Gwinnett, and that to create 40-man roster space for Stephens, left-hander Angel Perdomo was moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL.
Acquired from the Rockies prior to last season’s trade deadline, Johnson posted an 0.76 ERA over 23 2/3 innings for the remainder of the 2023 season, with a 36% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate to go along with that tiny ERA. Given those hugely impressive numbers, it isn’t surprising that the Braves moved to extend Johnson before he hit free agency, locking up the righty to a two-year, $14.25MM contract last October before Johnson hit the open market.
Johnson’s numbers haven’t been quite as outstanding in 2024, yet with a 3.00 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, and a 58.6% grounder rate, there’s still plenty to like about his performance. His walk rate has ticked back up to 10 percent, which is of some concern given how control has sometimes been a struggle for Johnson throughout his seven MLB seasons.
For now, however, the bigger concern is just getting Johnson back onto the field, though there isn’t yet any indication that his elbow problem is anything more than soreness. Johnson (who turns 33 next week) did miss most of the 2022 season due to forearm tendinitis, so his recent injury history does have a prominent arm-related issue.
The Braves’ deep bullpen should provide enough cover to withstand a relatively short absence for Johnson, but in the meantime, Stephens should receive his first MLB action of the 2024 season. The right-hander posted a 4.83 ERA for the Reds over 63 1/3 innings in 2018-2019 and a 3.56 ERA for the Braves in 65 2/3 frames in 2022-23, and spent the three seasons in between pitching in the minors, the Mexican League, and sitting out due to the canceled 2020 minor league season.
Stephens is out of minor league options, so he has been a frequent visitor to DFA limbo over the last year as the Braves had to continually designate him for assignment and then outright him in order to remove Stephens from the 40-man roster. While Stephens has used his right to elect free agency rather than just accept the outright assignments, he has then re-signed with Atlanta on a new contract. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this scenario play out again if Stephens’ latest stint on the 26-man is relatively short-lived, either due to Johnson’s quick return or if Atlanta cycles another fresh arm into the bullpen and Stephens is against the odd man out.
Perdomo underwent Tommy John surgery last October, so he was already slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. Surgery notwithstanding, the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Pirates last November (ironically, with Stephens getting outrighted as the corresponding move), cut Perdomo prior to the non-tender deadline, and re-signed him to a split contract in December. Since Perdomo is controlled through the 2028 season, the Braves are making a long-term bet on a reliever who had some pretty solid numbers for Pittsburgh in 2023.
Padres Acquire Luis Arraez
12:21PM: The Marlins are eating almost all of the roughly $8.5MM owed to Arraez this season, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link). San Diego will owe Arraez only the MLB minimum salary for the rest of 2024, so between this arrangement and moving Go’s salary, the Padres look to have actually reduced their luxury tax number with this trade.
TODAY, 9:34AM: Both teams have officially announced the trade, and the Padres will also be receiving cash considerations from the Marlins. This will lower the Padres’ financial hit, and give them a bit more breathing room under the luxury tax threshold.
MAY 3: The Padres and Marlins have lined up on a rare May blockbuster. San Diego is reportedly acquiring two-time batting champ Luis Arraez from Miami for four players: prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee and Nathan Martorella, as well as reliever Woo-Suk Go.
Arraez’s tenure in Miami ends after a season and five weeks. The Fish swapped Pablo López to the Twins to acquire him over the 2022-23 offseason. Arraez played up to expectations in the first season. He flirted with .400 for a few months, and while he didn’t maintain that otherworldly pace, he cruised to a second straight batting title and helped Miami to the playoffs. Arraez finished with a .354/.393/.469 line through 617 plate appearances.
As the batting titles would suggest, Arraez has developed into perhaps the game’s best pure contact hitter. He has walked more often than he’s struck out over the course of his career. The Venezuela native has punched out in only 7.5% of his plate appearances in the big leagues. That’s down to a meager 6.4% clip going back to the start of 2022. That leads qualified hitters by more than three percentage points. Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan is the only other player to strike out less than 10% of the time in that span.
Arraez has tallied 148 plate appearances over 33 games this season. His production is down slightly, as he’s hitting .299/.347/.372 without a home run. That’s not much of a concern for San Diego. Arraez is still making contact at an elite rate. He has never been a huge power threat, topping out at 10 longballs a year ago. It’s unlikely that San Diego feels differently about Arraez than they did during Spring Training, when they reportedly made a push for both him and starter Jesús Luzardo.
Going back to the start of 2022, Arraez is a .331/.380/.437 hitter in nearly 1400 plate appearances. He has hit at the top of the lineup in Miami and should do the same with the Padres. San Diego has been using Jurickson Profar in the leadoff spot of late. While Profar’s out to a fantastic start to the season, he can slide down a few spots in a suddenly deeper lineup.
As great a hitter as Arraez is, his game isn’t without flaws. He’s at best a fringe defender at second base. Defensive Runs Saved has generally graded him around league average with the glove, though it has soured on his work in 281 innings this season. Statcast has long panned him as a defender, grading him negatively in all but one year of his career. Statcast estimates he’s been 24 runs below average in nearly 2700 career innings at the keystone.
The Twins played Arraez more frequently at first base back in 2022. He rated better there defensively, although he doesn’t have the traditional power profile expected at the position. That doesn’t seem to be much of an issue for the Padres. Incumbent first baseman Jake Cronenworth is also a hit-over-power player who began his career in the middle infield.
Arraez could see occasional reps at first and second base, but he’s likely to get the bulk of his at-bats as a designated hitter. The Friars have Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado as their projected starting infield. Machado was limited to DH for a couple weeks as he recovered from last fall’s elbow surgery. He made his return to third base last Friday, and while he has continued shuffling between the hot corner and DH since then, he’ll eventually work back to everyday third base reps.
Machado’s return to third base would have left the Friars without a clear everyday option at designated hitter. Rookie Graham Pauley has gotten some reps there, but he has hit .125/.125/.313 to start his MLB career. Arraez should solidify that spot while still having enough defensive flexibility to allow manager Mike Shildt to rotate other infielders through the position when they need a break on defense.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from pursuing star talent, so it’s not particularly surprising that they’d keep an eye on Arraez. The timing of the trade, though, is a stunner. It’s incredibly rare to see players of that caliber moved this early into a season. Perhaps the best recent comparison is the May 21, 2021 swap that sent Willy Adames and Trevor Richards from the Rays to the Brewers for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen.
Peter Bendix was serving as Tampa Bay’s general manager (#2 in the front office hierarchy) at the time of the Adames deal. He’s now in charge of baseball operations in Miami. Bendix is evidently not averse to making a major splash at an atypical time if the opportunity presents itself.
The Marlins followed up a quiet offseason with an absolutely terrible April. They enter this weekend’s series in Oakland with a 9-24 record. Whatever slim chance they had of repeating last year’s surprising playoff berth has all but evaporated. Miami was going to be a deadline seller, so there’s sense in moving early if another team put the right offer on the table.
Miami felt that was the case with a four-player return centered around San Diego’s 2023 first-rounder. The Padres selected Head 25th overall out of an Illinois high school. A left-handed hitting center fielder, he split his first professional season between rookie ball and Low-A. Head ranked eighth among San Diego prospects at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Law’s organizational write-up at The Athletic.
Both outlets credit Head with excellent speed and the chance to be a plus defensive center fielder at his peak. BA writes that he’s likely to be a contact-oriented offensive player without a ton of power, but Law wrote that professional scouts were impressed by the bat speed he showed after being drafted. Head has spent his age-19 season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. He’s out to a relatively slow start, hitting .237/.317/.366 with a 24% strikeout rate.
While Head is a long-term development play, Marsee has an outside shot at getting to the big leagues in 2024. A sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan two years ago, he dramatically improved his stock with a .274/.413/.428 showing between High-A and Double-A last season. Marsee followed up with a massive performance in the Arizona Fall League. There was even some speculation he could compete for the Opening Day center field spot, but it quickly became clear that Jackson Merrill was above him in that discussion.
Marsee, 23, ranked between 10th and 12th on the respective organizational prospect lists at BA and The Athletic. He’s credited with advanced plate discipline and instincts but without a ton of power potential. Marsee has played almost exclusively center field in the minors and likely projects as a fourth outfielder. He has spent this season at Double-A San Antonio, where has slumped to a .187/.337/.333 slash through his first 22 games.
Martorella, who is also 23, was a fifth-round pick out of Cal in that 2022 draft. The left-handed hitter has a career .269/.373/.447 batting line in nearly 800 professional plate appearances. He’s out to an excellent .294/.392/.435 start with a pair of homers and six doubles through 102 trips to the plate in San Antonio. Martorella is limited to first base or designated hitter, so he’ll need to hit a lot to be a regular, but he has shown a well-rounded offensive profile in pro ball.
Rounding out the return is Go, whom the Padres just signed out of Korea last winter. San Diego inked the 25-year-old righty to a two-year, $4.5MM deal. He’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary. He’ll make $2.25MM next year and is guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $3MM mutual option for 2026. As is the case with most players signed out of a foreign professional league, his contract stipulates that he return to free agency at the end of the deal even though he’ll be well shy of six years of MLB service.
Go has yet to pitch in the major leagues. The Padres optioned him to Double-A after he struggled in Spring Training. He has tossed 12 2/3 innings there, allowing seven runs (six earned) on 14 hits. Go has fanned 15 hitters while issuing four walks. He was a closer for the KBO’s LG Twins before making the jump to MLB. He turned in a 3.18 ERA over parts of seven KBO seasons. Go missed plenty of bats in Korea but struggled to consistently throw strikes. Scouting reports before his signing generally suggested he projected as a middle reliever at the MLB level.
It’s the first of what is likely to be a handful of trades for the Marlins over the next few months. Miami seems set to kick off at least a retool, if not a full-scale rebuild. Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among a number of players whom the Fish could put on the market. It’s unlikely the Arraez trade will open the floodgates three months before the deadline, but it’s clear Miami is already willing to engage in conversations.
Making trades well in advance of the deadline would also allow the Marlins to offload a greater portion of players’ contracts. Budgetary constraints are always present for a franchise that annually runs payrolls in the bottom third of the league. Miami essentially sat out free agency until taking a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson (which hasn’t worked out) at the beginning of Spring Training.
Arraez was one of the higher-paid players on the roster. He’s making $10.6MM this season after losing an arbitration case in February — the second straight year he and the team went to a hearing. Around $8.5MM is yet to be paid. Assuming there are no cash considerations involved, they’ll offload that but assume around $1.4MM of Go’s salary. That amounts to just over $7MM in savings. The team’s estimated player payroll now sits around $92MM, as calculated by RosterResource.
The Padres absorb that money, which is no small matter for a team that spent most of the offseason cutting spending. RosterResource estimates their actual player payroll around $174MM. Their competitive balance tax number is far higher, reflecting their slate of backloaded contracts. RosterResource calculates their CBT in the $232MM range. They’re around $4.5MM below this year’s $237MM base threshold, a marker they were reluctant to cross last winter.
A team’s CBT calculation isn’t determined until the end of the season. This surely isn’t the last of the Padres’ trade activity. Their deadline direction could go in a number of ways depending on how the team performs over the next few months. It’s not even out of the question the Padres fall out of the race and put Arraez back on the trade block in July, though that’s surely not what the front office currently intends.
Even if Arraez finishes the 2024 season in San Diego, he could be a trade candidate next offseason. He’ll go through arbitration once more before hitting free agency during the 2025-26 offseason. The two-time All-Star is likely to command a salary in the $14-16MM range for his final year of club control. The Padres could ostensibly plug him in at second base and move Bogaerts back to shortstop if Kim departs as a free agent, but that’s not something with which the team will concern itself in the short term.
For now, they’ll plug Arraez at the top of the lineup as they push for a playoff spot. They’ll get a few more months of production than they would’ve had they waited to make a traditional deadline move, albeit at the cost of a trio of mid-level prospects and around three-quarters of Arraez’s 2024 salary. There may not be any more huge moves in the next couple weeks, but it’s a precursor to what should be busy summers in both South Florida and Southern California.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were nearing agreement on an Arraez deal for three prospects and a reliever. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed there was an Arraez trade in place. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins’ return.
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