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In all likelihood, the wait is over. Teams can now call prospects up to the MLB level with the expectation that the players will not obtain super two status three winters from now. While there’s no way of predicting where the super two cutoff will fall in 2014, recent history suggests it’s now safe for teams to promote their best young prospects.

If a player gets called up tomorrow and never returns to the minor leagues, he’ll have two years and 110 days of service following the 2014 season (110 days remain in the 2012 championship season). Chances are that won’t be enough to qualify for super two status; the cutoff has been at least two years and 122 days in each of the past six seasons. Next winter, when baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement takes effect, the cutoff is expected to sit in familiar territory: two years and 134 days.

Heavily-hyped prospects such as Matt Wieters, Giancarlo Stanton and Stephen Strasburg were all called up around this time in recent years, and service time appeared to be a factor in each case. Now Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Mike Montgomery, Manny Banuelos, Brett Jackson, James Paxton and Matt Harvey are among the prospects who could safely be called up to MLB. Even if one of these players were to debut tomorrow, he wouldn't be on track for super two status. Prospects who already have MLB service time, such as Anthony Rizzo and Jacob Turner, are on different timelines, as I detailed this spring.

Players who qualify for super two status go to arbitration four times, instead of the usual three. In many cases, this means the player earns millions more than he otherwise would have.

Service time is just one element of a team's decision-making process. Plus, a substantial proportion of top prospects get optioned to the minor leagues early in their careers. The player's readiness and the team's needs generally trump service time considerations, but there's no denying they're a factor.

3:16pm: Winker obtained a $1MM bonus, Jim Callis of Baseball America reports (on Twitter).

1:57pm: The Reds signed supplementary first round draft pick Jesse Winker, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (on Twitter). The Reds confirmed the deal, announcing the signings of 11th rounder Nolan Becker and 25th rounder Sean Lucas (Twitter link).

The Reds selected Winker, a high school outfielder, with the 49th overall selection as compensation for losing free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez. MLB recommends a bonus of $1.025MM for the 49th overall selection, according to Baseball America.

As a fan, free agent compensation draft picks can feel like an extra slap in the face from Major League Baseball.

"You're losing one of your key players. But here, take a guy who can't help you for three or four years, and probably won't help you at all." The just-concluded draft included Mike Wacha to the Cardinals for losing Albert Pujols, Clint Coulter to the Brewers for losing Prince Fielder, and Brian Johnson to the Red Sox for losing Jonathan Papelbon. Cold comfort, at least for now.

But the free agent compensation draft pick can be more than just a consolation prize taken home from a game show you didn't win. At its best, those picks can turn into important contributors. The Mets drafted David Wright, for instance, as a compensation pick for losing Mike Hampton via free agency, a loss they'd gladly experience again.

Usually, it works the other way around. In December 1983, Darrell Evans signed with the Detroit Tigers, after eight productive seasons with the San Francisco Giants. His contribution to San Francisco had been immense — consistent power and defense at third base. He was worth 19.8 wins above replacement (WAR) during his time with the Giants.

When he signed with Detroit, San Francisco got the 24th pick in the 1984 draft, (under a much different compensation system) and selected Terry Mulholland. While Mulholland only pitched in fits and starts from the time he debuted in 1986, he got packaged with third baseman Charlie Hayes and pitcher Dennis Cook in a deal that netted the Giants Steve Bedrosian, their closer in the pennant-winning season of 1989. Mulholland, alas, was worth -0.6 WAR to the Giants over three seasons, so the Evans-Mullholland duo checks in at just 19.2 WAR, total.

For my money, the baseball universe is best when a player contributes for a team, then leaves a compensation pick that also turns into a key contributor. It feels like the departing free agent has planted a tree. Let's take a look at the finest twofers baseball teams have received from this rule.

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SUNDAY: Clubs will actually be allowed to spend up to $3.2MM, not the announced $2.9MM, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.  According to the CBA, six bonuses up to $50K will not count against the international pool.  If teams push the rule to the limit, they'll get $2.9MM, plus $300K.

SATURDAY, 12:26pm: There will be no international draft for 2013, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports (on Twitter). Certain conditions were not met by yesterday's deadline, so the goal is to have a draft in place for 2014.

The new collective bargaining agreement implemented a spending pool for both the draft and international free agent markets. Clubs will be allotted $2.9MM for international players starting July 2nd of this year before shifting to a sliding scale based on winning percentage in the future, though a draft has always seemed to be the long-term goal.

Back in December, union head Michael Weiner said the owners are in favor of international draft "right now."

Back in January, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at the extensions from the 2009-10 offseason that are already looking like (or have proven to be) mistakes.  While some teams rue those deals, other teams have benefited.  While the jury is still out on a few of the longer-term contracts (i.e. Roy Halladay, Denard Span, Justin Upton), a few extensions signed between October 1, 2009 and April 5, 2010 are already clear wins for teams.

• Matt Cain.  Before Cain signed his six-year, $127.5MM extension with the Giants last April, there was talk that the MLBPA was watching the negotiations with interest due to the perception that Cain had already signed two team-friendly extensions in his career.  It's hard to argue that San Francisco got a deal on Cain's three-year, $27.25MM extension from March 2010.  Cain was already owed $4.25MM for 2010 and (on a team option) $6.25MM for 2011, and his new deal gave those numbers a minor bump up to a guaranteed $11.25MM for 2010-11, plus $15MM for what would have been Cain's first free agent year in 2012.  Based on Cain's latest extension, the Giants saved themselves at least $5-6MM by keeping Cain off the market in 2012.  Cain, of course, has greatly outperformed his extension on the field.
• Todd Helton.  The Rockies' star signed a two-year, $9.9MM extension for the 2012-13 seasons while also saving his team some money in the short term.  Helton was originally set to make $19.1MM in 2011 and faced a $23.6MM club option in 2012 that surely wold've been bought out for $4.6MM.  Instead, he earned $10.6MM in 2011 salary, with $13.1MM converted to deferred payments.  While Helton hasn't played well in 2012 at age 38, I still call this a minor win for the Rockies since they got some short-term salary relief and also made sure their franchise icon would retire in purple.
• Tim Lincecum.  "The Freak" was coming into his first arbitration-eligible year with unprecedented leverage, having won the NL Cy Young Award in both 2008 and 2009.  Lincecum asked for a record $13MM in 2010, with the Giants countering with an $8MM offer.  Both figures ended up coming into play, as Lincecum signed a two-year extension that paid him $8MM in 2010 and $13MM in 2011, plus a $2MM signing bonus.  It would've been a fascinating "what if?" to see if the arbitrator would've sided with Lincecum, and if he had, Lincecum probably would've been on pace to earn around $30MM in arbitration over those two seasons.  The Giants saved themselves anywhere between $3MM to $7MM on the Lincecum extension.
• Justin Verlander.  The ace righty isn't even halfway through his five-year, $80MM extension and yet it's already a deal the Tigers would happily do again.  Were it not for the extension, Verlander would've been a free agent last winter in the wake of his MVP-and-Cy Young-winning season.  He could've easily commanded a deal with an average annual value of at least $24MM per season, but Detroit has him locked up at $20MM per season from 2012-14.
• Carlos Ruiz.  The catcher signed a three-year, $8.85MM extension with the Phillies that covered all three of his arbitration-eligible seasons.  "Chooch" has been a great bargain for the Phillies, hitting .304/.390/.445 over the last three seasons and is currently enjoying his best year in the majors at age 33 — Ruiz has a whopping 1.038 OPS through 161 plate appearances.  The savings will continue for the Phillies since they hold a $5MM team option on Ruiz for 2013 that looks like a no-brainer pickup.
• Felix Hernandez.  Like Verlander's contract, Hernandez's extension covered his last two arb years and his first three free agent years, though the Mariners locked up their ace for $78MM, slightly less than what it cost the Tigers to extend Verlander.  Hernandez will earn $58MM from 2012-14, and had he reached free agency, he would've gotten at least $24MM per year on the open market and a return to Seattle would've been next to impossible.  Hernandez's deal is reasonable for a pitcher in his prime and he would net a huge trade return if the Mariners ever decided to deal him. 
• Shane Victorino.  The Phillies signed Victorino to a three-year, $22MM extension that covered his final two arb years and his first free agent year.  Victorino had a career-best performance in 2011 and would've earned at least $3.5MM more on the free agent market than the $9.5MM Philadelphia is paying him this season.
• Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers covered Kemp's first two arb-eligible seasons with a two-year, $10.95MM contract that guaranteed him $4MM in 2010 and $6.95MM in 2011.  Obviously it was a bargain performance-wise given Kemp's monster 2011 campaign, but Kemp's disappointing 2010 season would've brought down his 2011 arb number, so the Dodgers probably ended up saving maybe $1MM at most.  Then again, giving Kemp that early security was a sign that the Dodgers were committed to their center fielder, which may have been a factor in Kemp signing his eight-year, $160MM extension last winter despite the fact that the Dodgers hadn't yet solved their ownership problems.
• Tim Hudson.  Rather than pick up Hudson's $12MM club option for 2012, the Braves instead extended the veteran on a three-year, $28MM contract that includes a $9MM option ($1MM buyout) for 2013.  The Braves took a risk by extending a pitcher who was entering his age-34 season, but Hudson posted a 3.02 ERA and threw 443 2/3 innings in 2010-11.  His numbers are down a bit in 2012, but the Braves have already gotten a very good return on their investment.

As the number of long-term contracts and contract extensions increases, teams lock themselves into payroll obligations well into the future. With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, let's take a look at the longest current contracts for all 30 teams…

Signed Through 2023

• Reds: Joey Votto

Signed Through 2021

• Angels: Albert Pujols

Signed Through 2020

• Brewers: Ryan Braun
• Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki
• Tigers: Prince Fielder

Signed Through 2019

• Dodgers: Matt Kemp
• Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman

Signed Through 2018

• Red Sox: Adrian Gonzalez
• Orioles: Adam Jones
• Twins: Joe Mauer

Signed Through 2017

• Cardinals: Yadier Molina
• Diamondbacks: Miguel Montero
• Giants: Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner
• Marlins: Jose Reyes
• Pirates: Andrew McCutchen
• Rangers: Ian Kinsler and Yu Darvish
• Yankees: Alex Rodriguez

Signed Through 2016

• Cubs: Gerardo Concepcion
• Indians: Carlos Santana
• Mets: Jonathon Niese
• Padres: Cameron Maybin
• Phillies: Ryan Howard
• Rays: Matt Moore
• Royals: Salvador Perez
• White Sox: John Danks

Signed Through 2015

• Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes
• Blue Jays: Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero
• Braves: Dan Uggla
• Mariners: Danny Hultzen

Signed Through 2013

• Astros: Wandy Rodriguez

Our Baseball Trade Rumors app has undergone another major upgrade: it's now iPad-friendly!  The app fills the entire iPad screen for greater readability, and can be viewed horizontally on the device.  Of course, the app remains iPhone-friendly.  Those who have already purchased the app can download the update for free.

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Two years ago, we started a Twitter account called @closernews, which provides instant updates on MLB closer situations for fantasy baseball players. The account how has nearly 12,000 followers and has helped many win the saves category.

We're seeking a few writers to cover the late-night closer situations once or twice per week, starting at 11pm central time and going until the last game ends. This is an unpaid position, but it's good experience for anyone looking to pad their resume with work in baseball, fantasy and/or social media. The preference is for fantasy baseball junkies who already follow @closernews and are familiar with how it works.

If this project sounds like an enjoyable resume-builder for you, please email closernewshelp@gmail.com and let us know why you should join the @closernews team.