Uncategorized News & Rumors

As many as five contenders might be seeking a center fielder by the trade deadline:

• White Sox:  Alex Rios, who is signed through 2014, is hitting .221/.272/.329 on the season after a fine bounceback 2010.  He was pulled from last night's game because manager Ozzie Guillen didn't like the way Rios was running the bases.  His replacement Brent Lillibridge could start taking away at-bats, though Lillibridge's own negligence might have cost Chicago that particular game.  The Sox have Jordan Danks (.259/.335/.461) at Triple-A.
• Rangers:  Their games played leader Julio Borbon is in Triple-A, leaving Endy Chavez, Craig Gentry, and occasionally Josh Hamilton or David Murphy.  Chavez has played well in a small sample, and Leonys Martin could be a factor in September.
• Mariners:  They're committed to Franklin Gutierrez, but the well-regarded defender is having a very rough year with the bat.  If the lack of production continues for, say, four weeks, the Ms could think about renting a center fielder.
• Braves:  Jordan Schafer earned the center field job, pushing Nate McLouth to left.  Schafer hasn't done much with the bat though, so the Braves could look to upgrade.
• Nationals:  The Nats have reportedly been looking for a long-term center fielder for a while now, with B.J. Upton's name coming up often.  Roger Bernadina's recent play may give them pause, however. 

The Braves and Nationals seem most likely to make a move, though the Nats probably won't seek a rental.  The market may include Borbon, Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, Reed Johnson, Mitch Maier, Marlon Byrd, Melky Cabrera, Aaron Rowand, Rajai Davis, and Corey Patterson in my estimation.  Kosuke Fukudome could play center for someone, while Carlos Beltran played there last year.  I have a hard time seeing the Rays move Upton in the middle of a pennant race, but stranger things have happened.

10:11am: The beta test is full, thanks for your interest.

9:39am: Our Baseball Trade Rumors iPhone app allows you to get push notifications for every new rumor for all of your favorite players and teams.  The second version of the app is coming out soon, with new features such as team and transaction filters on the news page and an improved refresh button.

We are looking for 25 people to test the new version of the app thoroughly for about a week. 

Beta testing on our new Android app will begin soon.

With the hirings of Jack McKeon, 80, and Davey Johnson, 68, it appears a new trend may be afoot: old managers are the new market inefficiency. Much is likely to come from this, with teams using Willard Scott's birthday greetings as their own shortlists, and a spirited bidding war to hire The Oldest Living Confederate Widow.

But as many of the recent hires can tell you – having lived through it – hiring more experienced managers is nothing new. In fact, 15 of the 30 teams have employed managers 65 or older at some point in franchise history. How successful have these managers been, considering that their pep talks were littered with stories from the Great Depression? Unsurprisingly, their success varies, much as it does for their younger counterparts, based largely on the on-field talent.

The only manager in baseball history older than McKeon was Connie Mack. Interestingly, Mack was also one of the youngest-ever managers, getting his first gig as a player/manager with the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 1894, at the tender age of 31. His tenure with the Athletics lasted from 1901-1950, and had two high points. The first came from 1910-1914, when Mack's A's won four pennants and three World Series titles. Mack did this from age 47-51. But he was back around two decades later, as skipper for three pennants and two World Series titles from 1929-1931. Mack was age 66-68 for that success, and clearly had no trouble communicating with his younger players.  Even in 1932, at age 69, he managed to motivate 24-year-old Jimmie Foxx to hit 58 home runs.

A pair of 70-somethings also managed in the big leagues, one just recently, the other decades ago. Felipe Alou, who had managed the Montreal Expos well into his sixties, took over the San Francisco Giants at age 68 in 2003 and led them to 100 victories, then 91 the following season. His age 70 and 71 seasons were far less successful, but his talent eroded quite a bit as well. In 2003, his entire lineup featured hitters at OPS+ levels of 90 or above, with five of them above 104. In 2006, just two of his regular hitters topped an OPS+ of 93, and four found themselves at 84 or lower.

The other 70-something manager was Casey Stengel, of course, and it is hard to argue against his later-life success. Taking over the New York Yankees at age 58, he won a pennant each season, save two, until he was 69 years old. The Yankees lost the 1960 World Series to Pittsburgh, and decided to part ways with their manager. Stengel then delivered the immortal line about age and managing: "I'll never make the mistake of being 70 again."

Stengel did manage the New York Mets from ages 71-74 before a broken hip forced him out in 1965. Those Mets teams lost far more often than they won, but even a cursory look at the talent Stengel possessed would suggest that if anything, they overachieved.

One final note on aging managers: fully ten percent of all Major League teams have employed Jack McKeon as their oldest manager ever. McKeon's age-59 stint with the San Diego Padres back in 1990, and his age-69 tenure with the Cincinnati Reds ten years later make him the oldest manager in each franchise's history. With the Padres, he won 89 games in his penultimate season, 1989; with the Reds, he won 97 games and earned a one-game playoff for the wild card against the New York Mets in his age-68 season.

And of course, he'd already held the record for oldest manager in Florida history prior to this year's hiring, winning a World Series at age 72. In other words, it's probably time that somebody gave Earl Weaver – now just 80 himself – a call as well.

What do Kevin Correia, Octavio Dotel, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Chad Qualls, and Javier Vazquez have in common?  They were all Type B free agents who were surprisingly offered arbitration by their former clubs and then turned it down.  The offers surprised me because I assumed the risk of the players accepting was too great.  However, I couldn't account for the possibility of handshake deals – these players probably agreed beforehand to turn down arbitration offers, helping their former employers without hurting their own free agent stock. 

If supplemental round picks Jace Peterson (Padres), Trevor Story (Rockies), Grayson Garvin (Rays), Hudson Boyd (Twins), James Harris (Rays), and Dante Bichette Jr. (Yankees) make Major League impacts, their respective teams may want to thank the above-named Type B free agents who were willing to agree to turn down arbitration offers.  It's not a given - for example, the Rays didn't offer arbitration to Type B Carlos Pena, and the Yankees didn't offer to Lance Berkman or Kerry Wood.  In total, 17 Type Bs were not offered arbitration last offseason. 

Had players such as Hudson and Vazquez been rated as Type As, they would not have been so willing to turn down arbitration, since doing so would have required a new team to surrender a draft pick to sign them.  The Twins and Yankees would have realized this and never made arbitration offers in the first place.

My point: star players aside, many teams would prefer their own free agents to be rated as Type Bs rather than Type As.  So keep an eye on those currently on the borderline: Jason Kubel, Vladimir Guerrero, Aaron Hill, Carlos Guillen, Jason Frasor, and Chris Snyder.

Today let's take a look at contenders lacking at third base.

• Indians:  They've used Jack Hannahan at the hot corner, and he hasn't hit outside of April.  Top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is the team's third baseman of the future, so any acquisition would probably be for the short-term.
• Tigers:  The Tigers committed to Brandon Inge's defensive-minded contributions in the offseason.  Inge's bat was worse than expected in April and May, but he'll be returning soon from a bout with mononucleosis.
• White Sox:  Rookie Brent Morel has gotten the bulk of the playing time.  His defense draws praise, but it's hard to make up for a .251/.263/.317 line.
• Twins:  Danny Valencia has struggled.  Winners of eight straight, the Twins are now 6.5 games out and could think about buying if the next few weeks go well.
• Mariners:  Chone Figgins hasn't shown any signs of life, though Adam Kennedy (.283/.320/.435) might start stealing more playing time at third.
• Brewers:  Casey McGehee fell off a cliff this year, and he hasn't been better lately.
• Cardinals:  Daniel Descalso has been holding down the fort as David Freese aims to return from a broken hand this month.  Plus, Matt Carpenter has a .427 OBP at Triple-A.  Assuming there are no ill effects for Freese, the Cards should be fine at third base.
• Pirates:  Josh Harrison and Brandon Wood haven't done much in 172 plate appearances.  Pedro Alvarez was having a rough year before he went down with a quad injury in May.  Still, the Pirates have options and it's tough to see them acquiring a third baseman.

The trade market is fairly bleak.  Speculative trade candidates include Mark Reynolds, Wilson Betemit, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ian Stewart, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Teahen, Figgins, Mike Aviles, Brian Barden, Cody Ransom, and Josh Fields.  Aramis Ramirez said earlier this month he would not accept a trade.

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On Thursday I identified a big group of potentially available right-handed relievers.  Today let's check out the left-handed group.

• Athletics: Brian Fuentes, Craig Breslow, Jerry Blevins.  Blevins, designated for assignment in May, cleared waivers and is enjoying a strong June after a rough start at Triple-A.  Fuentes and Breslow are less likely to be dealt, as they might be penciled into future Oakland bullpens.
• Cubs: John Grabow.  The real prize is Sean Marshall, though I don't see why the Cubs would move him.  Grabow would be a salary dump, as he hasn't done much to earn his $4.8MM.
• Orioles: Mike Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson.  It's been a rough year for Gonzalez, who has allowed 30 hits and seven home runs in 24 innings.  However, he remains very tough on lefties.  Hendrickson was outrighted to Triple-A in March and has been solid as expected against lefties.
• Marlins: Randy Choate.  Choate, who is signed for 2012, has been nasty on lefties but should not face righties.
• Red Sox: Hideki Okajima.  Earlier this month he said he's hoping for a trade, but he hasn't drawn much interest to date.
• Dodgers: Hong-Chih Kuo.  Just activated from the DL for anxiety disorder, Kuo is nasty when healthy.  He's under team control through 2012 and would have a strong market if the Dodgers are willing to move him.  But even at seven games out they might just prefer to add stability to their own bullpen.
• J.C. Romero of the Phillies, Dustin Richardson of the Marlins: Both southpaws are currently in DFA limbo, so they won't require much to acquire.

Payroll flexibility is a beautiful thing at the trade deadline, as it allows a team to acquire talent by providing salary relief to the other club.  For teams with a little money to burn and an inclination to keep top prospects, here are some players who I think could be acquired mostly by taking on their contracts.  This list doesn't take no-trade clauses into account, except for the elimination of Aramis Ramirez.

• Catchers: None
• First basemen: Derrek Lee, James Loney, Brad Hawpe, Juan Rivera
• Second basemen: Mark Ellis
• Shortstops: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes
• Third basemen: Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake
• Left fielders: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee
• Center fielders:  None
• Right fielders: Kosuke Fukudome, Michael Cuddyer
• Designated hitters: Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui
• Starting pitchers: Javier Vazquez, Kyle Davies, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster
• Relievers: Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joe Nathan, John Grabow, Jonathan Broxton

I haven't included players on contending teams here, though it's certainly true someone could acquire players like Aaron Rowand and Jason Bay by only taking on their contracts.

During the 2010-11 offseason, 42 relievers signed Major League free agent deals.  From Rafael Soriano at $35MM to Taylor Buchholz at $600K, almost $253MM was invested in these relievers.  How are they doing so far?

Numbers for the average American League reliever:  a 3.86 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.88 HR/9.  AL teams threw around much of the relief cash during the offseason, accounting for more than 81% of the total spend.  The 26 signees have totaled 576 1/3 innings, from Joel Peralta at 33 1/3 to Pedro Feliciano at zero.  The average reliever in this group has 22 innings.  The results for the free agents: a 4.09 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9 – pretty close to league average.  Though he's allowed five home runs, Koji Uehara has probably been the best investment. 

The average National League reliever has a 3.54 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.74 HR/9.  NL teams invested only $48MM in relievers, as compared to $204MM for the AL.  The 16 NL signees have totaled 306 1/3 innings, or about 19 each.  Chad Qualls has been the workhorse at 35 innings, while Takashi Saito has registered only two frames.  As a whole the group has a 3.64 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9, also pretty close to league average.  With almost everyone in the group costing $5.5MM or less in total, there are plenty of bargains such as Qualls, Randy Choate, Todd Coffey, George Sherrill, and Buchholz (though he's currently injured).

My apologies for the lack of a groundbreaking conclusion here.  The 2010-11 free agent relief class has performed around league average.  The American League's heavy spending (36% of which came from the Yankees) has not paid off when compared to the National League bargain shopping.

The Rangers and Cardinals are just a few contenders who might look to add relief help at the trade deadline.  Let's take a look at right-handed relievers who could become available soon.

• Nationals: Tyler Clippard, Todd Coffey.  Coffey, a free agent after the season, seems most likely to go.  I'm not sure why Clippard's name has entered the rumor mill, as he's under team control through 2015 and has been dominant this year.
• Orioles: Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo.  I don't see why any of these guys would be off-limits.  Uehara has been particularly nasty, and could close for a lot of teams.
• Padres: Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson (when healthy).  Like Clippard, Gregerson would be tough to pry away.  Jed Hoyer should get tons of phone calls on Bell and Adams though.
• Dodgers: Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Jonathan Broxton (when healthy).  I'm guessing Ned Colletti doesn't want to subtract relievers from an already-decimated pen.  But Broxton is a free agent after the season and there would be teams wanting to rent him if he comes back strong.
• Mets: The Mets are only 3.5 games back in the wild card, so they might not be inclined to trade closer Francisco Rodriguez.  However, there is that pesky games finished clause, which triggers a $17.5MM salary for 2012 if K-Rod finishes 28 more games.  Jason Isringhausen could become trade bait if the Mets fall out of contention.
• Pirates: The Bucs are three games out in the wild card, so they probably won't be tearing up their bullpen.  Still, closer Joel Hanrahan is flourishing and Chris Resop and Jose Veras have huge strikeout rates.  It wouldn't hurt to just listen to offers. 
• Blue Jays: They're still on the fringe of contention.  If that changes for the worse the club has right-handed relievers galore: Shawn Camp, Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, and Jon Rauch to name a few.
• Marlins: The Marlins are just falling fast.  If they decide to fold, righties Leo Nunez, Brian Sanches, and Burke Badenhop could become available.  The Rockies could become sellers too if the next 30 days go poorly. 
• Cubs: Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood (when healthy), Jeff Samardzija.  There's been no indication Marmol is available, but I wonder if the Cubs would listen.  Most likely they prefer to keep him around.  For Wood to be dealt, he'd have to be open to the idea. 
• Royals: Joakim Soria.  Trading Soria now would be selling low, and the Royals have never seemed open to it, though MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says they're willing to talk about him.
• Athletics: Grant Balfour, Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler.  All these guys are under control for next year at least, so it's unclear as to whether the A's would move one.    
• Twins: The Twins have been playing better lately, but they're still nine games out.  Closer Matt Capps would draw plenty of interest, and perhaps Joe Nathan could be dealt in August if healthy and effective.
• Cardinals: Ryan Franklin could be a trade candidate, if he's not released first.