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For Contenders With Deep Pockets

By Tim Dierkes | June 20, 2011 at 9:32am CDT

Payroll flexibility is a beautiful thing at the trade deadline, as it allows a team to acquire talent by providing salary relief to the other club.  For teams with a little money to burn and an inclination to keep top prospects, here are some players who I think could be acquired mostly by taking on their contracts.  This list doesn't take no-trade clauses into account, except for the elimination of Aramis Ramirez.

  • Catchers: None
  • First basemen: Derrek Lee, James Loney, Brad Hawpe, Juan Rivera
  • Second basemen: Mark Ellis
  • Shortstops: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes
  • Third basemen: Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake
  • Left fielders: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee
  • Center fielders:  None
  • Right fielders: Kosuke Fukudome, Michael Cuddyer
  • Designated hitters: Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui
  • Starting pitchers: Javier Vazquez, Kyle Davies, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster
  • Relievers: Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Joe Nathan, John Grabow, Jonathan Broxton

I haven't included players on contending teams here, though it's certainly true someone could acquire players like Aaron Rowand and Jason Bay by only taking on their contracts.

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How Are Free Agent Relievers Doing?

By Tim Dierkes | June 17, 2011 at 10:21am CDT

During the 2010-11 offseason, 42 relievers signed Major League free agent deals.  From Rafael Soriano at $35MM to Taylor Buchholz at $600K, almost $253MM was invested in these relievers.  How are they doing so far?

Numbers for the average American League reliever:  a 3.86 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.88 HR/9.  AL teams threw around much of the relief cash during the offseason, accounting for more than 81% of the total spend.  The 26 signees have totaled 576 1/3 innings, from Joel Peralta at 33 1/3 to Pedro Feliciano at zero.  The average reliever in this group has 22 innings.  The results for the free agents: a 4.09 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9 – pretty close to league average.  Though he's allowed five home runs, Koji Uehara has probably been the best investment. 

The average National League reliever has a 3.54 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.74 HR/9.  NL teams invested only $48MM in relievers, as compared to $204MM for the AL.  The 16 NL signees have totaled 306 1/3 innings, or about 19 each.  Chad Qualls has been the workhorse at 35 innings, while Takashi Saito has registered only two frames.  As a whole the group has a 3.64 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9, also pretty close to league average.  With almost everyone in the group costing $5.5MM or less in total, there are plenty of bargains such as Qualls, Randy Choate, Todd Coffey, George Sherrill, and Buchholz (though he's currently injured).

My apologies for the lack of a groundbreaking conclusion here.  The 2010-11 free agent relief class has performed around league average.  The American League's heavy spending (36% of which came from the Yankees) has not paid off when compared to the National League bargain shopping.

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Potentially Available Right-Handed Relievers

By Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2011 at 2:07pm CDT

The Rangers and Cardinals are just a few contenders who might look to add relief help at the trade deadline.  Let's take a look at right-handed relievers who could become available soon.

  • Nationals: Tyler Clippard, Todd Coffey.  Coffey, a free agent after the season, seems most likely to go.  I'm not sure why Clippard's name has entered the rumor mill, as he's under team control through 2015 and has been dominant this year.
  • Orioles: Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo.  I don't see why any of these guys would be off-limits.  Uehara has been particularly nasty, and could close for a lot of teams.
  • Padres: Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson (when healthy).  Like Clippard, Gregerson would be tough to pry away.  Jed Hoyer should get tons of phone calls on Bell and Adams though.
  • Dodgers: Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Jonathan Broxton (when healthy).  I'm guessing Ned Colletti doesn't want to subtract relievers from an already-decimated pen.  But Broxton is a free agent after the season and there would be teams wanting to rent him if he comes back strong.
  • Mets: The Mets are only 3.5 games back in the wild card, so they might not be inclined to trade closer Francisco Rodriguez.  However, there is that pesky games finished clause, which triggers a $17.5MM salary for 2012 if K-Rod finishes 28 more games.  Jason Isringhausen could become trade bait if the Mets fall out of contention.
  • Pirates: The Bucs are three games out in the wild card, so they probably won't be tearing up their bullpen.  Still, closer Joel Hanrahan is flourishing and Chris Resop and Jose Veras have huge strikeout rates.  It wouldn't hurt to just listen to offers. 
  • Blue Jays: They're still on the fringe of contention.  If that changes for the worse the club has right-handed relievers galore: Shawn Camp, Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, and Jon Rauch to name a few.
  • Marlins: The Marlins are just falling fast.  If they decide to fold, righties Leo Nunez, Brian Sanches, and Burke Badenhop could become available.  The Rockies could become sellers too if the next 30 days go poorly. 
  • Cubs: Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood (when healthy), Jeff Samardzija.  There's been no indication Marmol is available, but I wonder if the Cubs would listen.  Most likely they prefer to keep him around.  For Wood to be dealt, he'd have to be open to the idea. 
  • Royals: Joakim Soria.  Trading Soria now would be selling low, and the Royals have never seemed open to it, though MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says they're willing to talk about him.
  • Athletics: Grant Balfour, Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler.  All these guys are under control for next year at least, so it's unclear as to whether the A's would move one.    
  • Twins: The Twins have been playing better lately, but they're still nine games out.  Closer Matt Capps would draw plenty of interest, and perhaps Joe Nathan could be dealt in August if healthy and effective.
  • Cardinals: Ryan Franklin could be a trade candidate, if he's not released first.
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Contenders In Need Of A Second Base Upgrade

By Tim Dierkes | June 16, 2011 at 9:22am CDT

As many as six contenders could use help at second base, though not all of them will look externally.  Several may never enter buying mode.  But here's a look at the contenders that could consider a second base upgrade:

  • Indians: Rookie Cord Phelps has entered the mix with Orlando Cabrera at second base.  Phelps was hitting .299/.391/.488 at Triple-A, so if he gets established the Indians already have their upgrade on O-Cab.  If not, Jason Kipnis has been similarly productive in the minors.
  • Tigers: They've been using Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn of late.  I'm sure they'd like Raburn to run with the job and provide offense, but he's shown little to date.  There's always the option of giving Will Rhymes another go.
  • Cardinals: Nick Punto is on the disabled list, leaving Skip Schumaker as the main second baseman and Tyler Greene as another option.  The Cards could consider acquiring a shortstop and moving Ryan Theriot to second base.
  • Giants: Starter Freddy Sanchez has a shoulder injury, and the plan is for rest and rehab over the next six weeks.  Mike Fontenot should come off the DL soon, and the Giants recently signed Bill Hall.
  • Blue Jays: Aaron Hill is the starter, though he hasn't done much.  At five games out in the wild card, the Jays still have a chance, so they could try to upgrade.
  • Marlins: Their second base starter is Omar Infante, who's had a rough year but has at least been a little better in June.  Even if they do turn things around I don't expect the Marlins to look for an outside upgrade at second.

So who's available?  Jeff Baker, Adam Kennedy, Jeff Keppinger, Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Jerry Hairston Jr., Mike Aviles, and Mark Ellis are viable trade candidates.  Ellis is currently on the DL, while Aviles is in the minors.

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MLBTR’s Agency Database

By Tim Dierkes | June 15, 2011 at 9:29am CDT

Wondering who represents your favorite players?  Here at MLBTR we are constantly updating our agency database; check it out today.  The database currently has about 1,300 players and their agencies, and you can filter by agency or team.

A few players we don't have: J.A. Happ, Brandon Beachy, Sergio Romo, James McDonald, Neftali Feliz, and Charlie Blackmon.  If you represent any of these players or know who does, an email to mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com would be much appreciated.

 

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How To Use MLBTR

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | June 15, 2011 at 6:00am CDT

An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

  • If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
  • If you're an iPhone user, be sure to pick up our app for the latest news and rumors.
  • If you want only the hard news in the form of transactions, our transactions page is the ticket.  You can also get only the transactions via Twitter or RSS. 
  • To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
  • The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
  • The Contact button takes you to a page where you can write an email message to the MLBTR writers.  If you have a link to a rumor we've missed, please send it in through the Contact page!  Also use the Contact page to inquire about advertising on MLBTR.
  • The Archives dropdown shows you 15 months worth.  If you need to go back further, click on Site Map at the very bottom of the page.  Site Map also lists out every MLBTR post category, including players, teams, and features.
  • The Tools dropdown takes you to a number of different places. The MLBTR Widget allows website owners to easily add a constantly updated box with all of MLBTR's headlines to their sites.
  • Also under the tools tab is our Transaction Tracker, which enables you to search about anything and everything to do with baseball trades, signings and extensions. 
  • Be sure to check out our Free Agent Tracker for a look at last offseason's free agent activity.
  • Our Arbitration Tracker is also under the Tools tab. It enables you to look back through all of the year's arbitration cases.
  • MLBTR's Agency Database lets you know which agencies represent which players. It's searchable by team, agency or player, so be sure to check it out.
  • The Forums button takes you here, to a message board community of MLBTR readers with over 8,200 members.  You can discuss any baseball-related topic on the Forums, and start your own thread too.
  • Feeds By Team is a very useful dropdown.  Hover over it to see all 30 teams.  Click on the team name to bring up a page of every post containing information about that team, with the latest on top.  These are the same pages you'll find if you go to the Rumors By Team section on the sidebar and select A's Rumors, Angels Rumors, etc.  Also under the Feeds By Team dropdown, you'll find RSS and Twitter buttons.  Those links allow you to follow a single team's rumors via RSS or Twitter.  Did you know we have a separate Twitter account for each of the 30 teams?  For example you can follow @mlbtrtigers, where you would get the latest Tigers updates.
  • You can also follow Tim Dierkes and Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter for more MLBTR content.
  • On the far right of the Navigation bar, you'll see buttons for Twitter, Facebook, and RSS.  MLBTR has over 80,000 Twitter followers, over 35,000 Facebook fans, and over 53,000 RSS subscribers.  Sign up for these and you'll be the first to receive all of our posts.
  • Be sure to check out your favorite team's MLBTR page on Facebook so you can receive and comment on the latest rumors.
  • On to the sidebar.  It begins with a list of our Top Stories, which our writers update any time major hard news occurs.  Go here for a quick update on the most important stories.  Below that is the site's Search Box, where you can type in any player's name and get the latest on him. 
  • MLBTR Features has all kinds of goodies, including our free agent lists, 2011 draft order, list of Scott Boras clients, and GM-related stuff.  Many of the MLBTR Features are constantly updated by our writers, so be assured that our free agent lists are always fresh. 
  • Below Features you've got headlines for all the Recent Posts, in case you'd rather not scroll to see all the headlines.  Then there's a box for our Mailing List, where you can sign up to receive a daily email containing MLBTR's posts.  Use this option if you don't need the news as soon as possible.
  • Next we have Featured Posts, where you'll find original work from MLBTR writers we consider noteworthy.  For example, read about a potentially historic arbitration case.
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What Can Be Done About Super Two?

By Tim Dierkes | June 14, 2011 at 12:22pm CDT

Super Two players go to arbitration four times instead of the normal three.  Every year, a group of players with more than two but less than three years of service time gets to go to arbitration for the first time and score millions, while many of their peers who miss the cutoff are still earning less than $500K.  The salaries build upon themselves, so it's not just a single season affected. 

The cutoff varies year to year – last year Brad Ziegler was a Super Two with two years and 122 days, but typically it's over 130 days.  CAA indicated in April that it could be 146 days for 2012.  It is determined by calculating the top 17% in total service of those with two to three years, assuming the players had at least 86 days in the previous season.  Usually if a team promotes a player in June or later he will not achieve Super Two status.

This has led to the cynical opinion of many observers that any decent prospect who makes his MLB debut in June or later is a victim of the Super Two numbers game.  That's not fair to teams, as there are often good developmental reasons to give a prospect more seasoning that might not show up in the box scores.  For example, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs demonstrates that the Mariners don't have Dustin Ackley in the minors because of Super Two.  And as Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos pointed out, most players are optioned at least once, changing the equation.  The problem is that we can only guess as to each team's motivations. 

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus discusses the Super Two situation today, noting five players who could start next season in the minors for financial reasons.  He says that while "players and teams alike aren't especially fond of the system," giving it up entirely would be a major concession for the players' union.  An NL exec pointed out to Goldstein that you can't really eliminate the ability of teams to make service-time based decisions just by cutting out Super Two.  The same concerns would just arise in April, as teams would be accused of trying to keep a player just under a full year's service time to delay arbitration.  Of course, those concerns already exist in April as teams sometimes try to delay free agency by a year.

So there is something to be gained for teams and fans by eliminating Super Two, as service time debates would be limited to April.  The players would need some kind of concession to give up Super Two, as every year 15-20 of them earn extra hundreds of thousands or millions because of it (even if many are later non-tendered or signed to extensions).  I wonder whether the players would be open to a new proposal that benefits all young players, rather than just a small subset with the appropriate amount of service time.  For example, what if the minimum salary is raised a bit more than usual to compensate for the loss of Super Two?  Another possibility would be to drop the 17% qualifier to, say, 10%, creating fewer Super Two players by effectively pushing back the cutoff date.  Let's hear your ideas in the comments. 

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Prospects Dealt In July Of 2009

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2011 at 9:35am CDT

Aaron Poreda being designated for assignment prompted me to wonder what's become of all the notable prospects dealt in July of 2009.  Let's take a look.

  • Al Alburquerque, acquired by Rockies from Cubs for Jeff Baker.  The Rockies cut Albuquerque loose, and he signed a Major League deal with the Tigers in November.  He's worked around a high walk rate to produce very strong results in 20 2/3 relief innings this year.
  • Ryan Webb, acquired by Padres from Athletics in Scott Hairston deal.  Webb became the key player for the Marlins in the November 2010 trade that sent Cameron Maybin to San Diego.  He's been useful for Florida, racking up groundballs, though a mid-90s heater often generates a K/9 above 6.5.  Sean Gallagher, the player to be named later in that trade, was later acquired by the Pirates and has struggled.
  • Roque Mercedes, acquired by Diamondbacks from Brewers in Felipe Lopez deal.  Lopez was a pretty valuable player two years ago.  Since the deal, Mercedes toiled with Arizona's Double-A club and eventually returned to the Brewers in December by way of a waiver claim.  The Brewers designated him for assignment in February and he cleared waivers.
  • Brandon Allen, acquired by Diamondbacks from White Sox for Tony Pena.  The D'Backs let Allen compete for the first base job this spring, but he's remained at Triple-A.  The 25-year-old has shown a propensity to draw walks in the hitter-friendly league and awaits a shot at a starting job.
  • Daniel Cortes, acquired by Mariners from Royals in Yuniesky Betancourt deal.  Cortes hasn't gotten much of a big league look in the Mariners' pen yet; he's had issues here and there with hits allowed and walks in the minors since the trade.
  • Hunter Strickland, acquired by Pirates from Red Sox in Adam LaRoche deal.  Strickland appears to be on the DL for the Pirates' High-A team; he hasn't pitched this year.  The Bucs also acquired infielder Argenis Diaz in the deal; he signed with the Tigers after being non-tendered.
  • Connor Graham, acquired by Indians from Red Sox for Rafael Betancourt.  Graham is currently on the disabled list for the Indians' Double-A team and hasn't pitched this year.
  • Brett Wallace, acquired by Athletics from Cardinals in Matt Holliday deal.  The A's later sent Wallace to the Blue Jays for Michael Taylor, who eventually sent him to Houston for Anthony Gose.  He's found a home as the Astros' starting first baseman and owns a .304/.376/.440 line this year.
  • Scott Barnes, acquired by Indians for Ryan Garko.  The lefty is part of the Tribe's Triple-A rotation.
  • Nathan Adcock, acquired by Pirates from Mariners as part of the Ian Snell/Jack Wilson deal.  The Royals snagged Adcock in the latest Rule 5 draft, and he's trying to stick as a member of their bullpen.
  • Tim Alderson, acquired by Pirates from Giants in Freddy Sanchez deal.  The Pirates drew praise for the acquisition, but Alderson was demoted to High-A in July of last year.  He made it back to Double-A this year as a reliever and has been useful statistically.
  • The Indians' Cliff Lee haul from the Phillies: Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson.  Knapp missed much of last season with a shoulder injury.  The Indians are handling him carefully, but he'll begin his season at High A soon and remains highly regarded.  The others have reached the bigs, and Carrasco is a member of the team's big league rotation.
  • Josh Bell, acquired by Orioles from Dodgers in George Sherrill deal.  Once considered Baltimore's third baseman of the future, Bell was unimpressive in the Majors last year and hasn't done enough at Triple-A.
  • Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, acquired by Pirates from Cubs in John Grabow/Tom Gorzelanny deal.  Hart is recovering from a torn labrum, while Ascanio was designated for assignment this month.
  • Zach Stewart, acquired by Blue Jays in Scott Rolen deal.  Stewart has been OK as a member of the Jays' Double-A rotation and still seems to have big league potential.
  • The Indians' haul from the Red Sox for Victor Martinez: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price.  Masterson owns a 3.18 ERA as the ace of Cleveland's rotation.  Hagadone was converted to the bullpen and has scuffled a bit since being promoted to Triple-A.  Price works out of the Double-A team's bullpen.
  • The Mariners' return from the Tigers for Jarrod Washburn: Luke French and Mauricio Robles.  French is struggling in the team's Triple-A rotation, while Robles is on the DL for elbow surgery.
  • Ryan Mattheus, acquired by Nationals from Rockies in Joe Beimel deal.  Mattheus was outrighted in November but added back to the 40-man roster a few days ago and is a member of Washington's bullpen.
  • The Padres' haul for Jake Peavy from White Sox: Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter.  Poreda was designated for assignment today.  Richard had an excellent 2010 in San Diego's rotation and remains a useful starter.  Russell was sent to Tampa Bay in the Jason Bartlett deal.  Carter was cut by the Padres during the spring and signed back with the White Sox.
  • Aaron Thompson, acquired by Nationals from Marlins for Nick Johnson.  The former first-round pick was claimed off waivers by the Pirates in December and now pitches for their Double-A club.
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Regular MLBTR Features

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | June 10, 2011 at 12:48pm CDT

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

  • MLBTR Chats – Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the major leagues.
  • Baseball Blogs Weigh In – Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
  • Week In Review – It's amazing how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
  • MLBTR Originals – We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.
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Free $300 Fantasy Baseball Contest (Sponsored Post)

By Tim Dierkes | June 9, 2011 at 10:59pm CDT

Looking to flex your fantasy baseball genius on a single night?  Try DraftStreet, where you can put together a new fantasy team every night and compete against other users for real money.

Right now DraftStreet has a freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you can take a shot at a chunk of the $300 prize pool for free, with no strings attached.  Here's how it works.

The MLBTR freeroll is for Friday night's games, so you have until then to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  For Friday, Roy Halladay is considered the most valuable player since he starts against the Cubs, but he'll cost you over $17K.  Your roster will cover these positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 utility, 2 SP, 1 RP, 1 P and 2 Reserves (14 starters).  You get points based on how your team performs Friday.  For example, you'll get 0.75 points for each strikeout Doc racks up and 1.5 points if he gets the win.    The teams with the most points get the prize money.  You can apply all kinds of strategy in building your roster – for example, check out the chance of rain at U.S. Cellular Friday before you decide to add A's and White Sox players.  Below I've taken a screenshot of a roster in progress: 

Draftstreet
 
If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Friday's night games (6:05pm central time).  It's quick, easy, fun, and the MLBTR league gives you a free chance to win some of the $300 prize pool.  If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues for free and earn credits, or deposit real money.

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