Uncategorized News & Rumors

We'll round up the days arbitration offer-related rumors in this post, so refresh it often.  Our predictions can be found here.  Once the decisions actually start coming in tonight, there will be one post for each of the 26 teams that have ranked free agents.

• ESPN's Jayson Stark believes neither Chan Ho Park (B) nor Scott Eyre (B) will get an offer from the Phillies, and that's backed up by GM Ruben Amaro Jr. (speaking to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki). 
• Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Yankees "almost certainly will not offer arbitration" to Johnny Damon (A), Hideki Matsui (neither), and Andy Pettitte (B).  Sherman does not mention Xavier Nady (B), but we're guessing he won't get an offer.  Newsday's Ken Davidoff believes Pettitte will get an offer (the lefty didn't last year).
• MLB.com's Adam McCalvy says the Brewers are "leaning against extending arbitration offers to any of their five compensation-eligible free agents, including Felipe Lopez."  GM Doug Melvin explained that the Brewers would have a logjam if Lopez (B) accepted.  Yesterday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel said he expected the Brewers to offer arbitration to Lopez because the second baseman would probably turn it down.  The team's other Type B free agents: Braden Looper, David Weathers, Jason Kendall, and Mike Cameron.
• Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals will offer arbitration to Matt Holliday (A) but not Troy Glaus (B).  Type Bs Mark DeRosa and Joel Pineiro are less certain, but DeRosa's agent assumes an offer is coming.
• Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox will offer arbitration to Type As Jason Bay and Billy Wagner.

What does it mean when we say a free agent was offered arbitration?  When a team offers arbitration to one of its own free agents, it is offering the player a 2010 contract at a to-be-determined salary.  Last year, out of 24 such offers, only two players (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted.

One reason "offering arbitration" to free agents is confusing is that the actual process of arbitration rarely comes into play.  Even with Oliver and Weathers last year, the sides agreed on 2010 salaries without arbitration hearings.  In an arbitration hearing, a third-party panel must choose between one salary figure submitted by the team and another submitted by the player.  These hearings only take place if the sides cannot agree on a salary.  Clearing up a common error: if a free agent accepts arbitration, the team and the player can submit any salary figure they want.

If most free agents turn down arbitration offers, why do we care?  Turning down an arbitration offer makes draft pick compensation possible for the team losing the free agent.  Free agents can be classified as Type A, B, or nothing.  Check our list to see the current designations, and click here to see the stats the Elias Sports Bureau uses to assign them.

Shortstop Marco Scutaro will be our example of a Type A free agent.  Say the Blue Jays offer him arbitration, and he turns it down because he feels he can do better than a one-year contract if he hits the open market.  Say also that the Red Sox sign Scutaro, and do not sign any other Type A free agents.  In this case, the Blue Jays are given Boston's #29 pick in the June 2010 draft as well as a pick in a supplemental round that takes place after the first round.  It's important to note that the supplemental pick is squeezed into the draft but it does not come from the Red Sox.  Therefore, the Sox only surrendered one pick to sign Scutaro, even though the Blue Jays received two.

In the Scutaro example, the Blue Jays were given Boston's first-round draft pick.  With Type A free agent draft pick compensation, only first-round picks outside of the top 15 are eligible to be taken by another team.  The first 15 picks are protected.  In those cases, the team gives up its second-round pick.  For example, if the Astros sign Scutaro, the Blue Jays get their second-round (#41) pick rather than their protected first-round (#8) pick.  Here's the 2010 draft order; note that the first 16 picks are protected next year because the Rangers will receive a compensatory pick for failing to sign Matt Purke.

Now, if one team signs multiple Type As from other teams, as the Yankees did last year, draft pick compensation gets muddier.  Click here to read up on that.

We'll use outfielder Marlon Byrd as our Type B example.  Say the Rangers offer him arbitration and he turns it down in search of a better contract.  Say also that the Cubs sign Byrd.  The Cubs do not give a draft pick to the Rangers.  The Rangers do gain a draft pick – it is squeezed into the supplemental round.  Therefore, signing a Type A free agent who was offered and turned down arbitration costs one draft pick, but signing such a Type B does not.  Players who were not offered arbitration do not have draft pick compensation.  Same goes for players who were designated neither A nor B.

Another cause for confusion: we have a different concept that also uses the word "arbitration."  When we say Felix Hernandez is arbitration-eligible, we mean that he has between two-plus and five-plus years of service time, and therefore has some say in his salary.  Hernandez is under the Mariners' control.  The only question is what they will pay him next year, and that's the one similarity with free agent compensation.  Felix and the Mariners each submit salary figures, and if they can't agree an arbitration panel must choose one.

Upcoming deadlines: on December 1st (by 11pm CST), we'll learn whether teams offer arbitration to their free agents.  Expect 20-25 offers.  By December 7th, those 20-25 players must choose whether to accept.  Expect only a handful to accept.  Those who accept are no longer free agents.

The unrelated non-tender deadline is December 12th.  That is when teams decide whether to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players.  These players have fewer than six years of service time, and are under team control for 2010 if the team wants them.  If not, the players are non-tendered and become free agents.  We'll be adding many names to the free agent list on December 12th.

On October 12th, I explained what it means when a free agent is offered arbitration and also made a few loose predictions.  Tomorrow evening, those arbitration decisions will be upon us.  As far as I can tell, there are 70 Type A/B free agents.  It's time to commit to predictions on whether or not the player will be offered arbitration.  Let me know where I'm wrong in the comments.

• Bengie Molina (A) - Yes
• Billy Wagner (A) – Yes
• Chone Figgins (A) – Yes
• Darren Oliver (A) – Yes
• Jason Bay (A) – Yes
• Jermaine Dye (A) – No
• John Lackey (A) – Yes
• Johnny Damon (A) – No
• Jose Valverde (A) – No
• Kevin Gregg (A) – No
• LaTroy Hawkins (A) – No
• Marco Scutaro (A) – Yes
• Matt Holliday (A) – Yes
• Miguel Tejada (A) – No
• Mike Gonzalez (A) – Yes
• Octavio Dotel (A) – No
• Orlando Cabrera (A) – No
• Orlando Hudson (A) – No
• Placido Polanco (A) – No
• Rafael Betancourt (A) - Yes
• Rafael Soriano (A) - Yes
• Randy Wolf (A) – Yes
• Adam LaRoche (B) - No
• Adrian Beltre (B) – No
• Andy Pettitte (B) - No
• Bob Howry (B) – No
• Braden Looper (B) – No
• Brandon Lyon (B) – Yes
• Brian Giles (B) – No
• Brian Shouse (B) – No
• Carl Pavano (B) – Yes
• Carlos Delgado (B) – No
• Chan Ho Park (B) - Yes
• David Weathers (B) – No
• Doug Brocail (B) – No
• Doug Davis (B) – No
• Erik Bedard (B) – No
• Felipe Lopez (B) - Yes
• Fernando Rodney (B) – Yes
• Fernando Tatis (B) – No
• Garret Anderson (B) – No
• Gregg Zaun (B) – No
• Guillermo Mota (B) – No
• Ivan Rodriguez (B) - No
• Jason Kendall (B) – No
• Jason Marquis (B) – No
• Joe Beimel (B) – No
• Joel Pineiro (B) – Yes
• Jon Garland (B) – No
• Justin Duchscherer (B) - No
• Kiko Calero (B) – No
• Mark DeRosa (B) - Yes
• Marlon Byrd (B) – Yes
• Melvin Mora (B) – No
• Miguel Olivo (B) – No
• Mike Cameron (B) – No
• Nick Johnson (B) – No
• Randy Johnson (B) – No
• Randy Winn (B) – No
• Rich Harden (B) – No
• Rod Barajas (B) – Yes
• Ronnie Belliard (B) – No
• Russ Springer (B) – No
• Scott Eyre (B) – No
• Troy Glaus (B) – No
• Vicente Padilla (B) – No
• Vladimir Guerrero (B) – No
• Will Ohman (B) – No
• Xavier Nady (B) – No
• Yorvit Torrealba (B) – No

That's 21 arb offers in total, which would be down from 24 last year.  I'm on the fence on Molina, Valverde, Hawkins, and Hudson in particular.  Thanks to all the journalists and others who offered feedback on these predictions, including Mike DiGiovanna, Tom Haudricourt, Todd Zolecki, Derrick Goold, Bob Dutton, Bill Shaikin, Mark Bowman, Kelly Thesier, T.R. Sullivan, Joe Christensen, Brian McTaggart, Chris Haft, Andrew Baggarly, Tracy Ringolsby, and Jon Paul Morosi.

MLBTR is now looking for moderators to read through comments and make sure that they're not in violation of our commenting policy. We're looking for a small group of people to contribute throughout the week. It's not a paid position, but it will keep you connected to the latest trade and free agent rumors. 

21 Type A free agents may potentially be offered arbitration by their clubs on Tuesday.  We know that at least a few – Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Gregg – stand little chance of actually getting an offer.  Of those Type As who do receive an offer (there were 15 last year), many will turn it down and sign with a new team.  In those cases, the player's old team will receive a draft pick from his new team as part of the compensation.

15 clubs will lose their 2010 first-round pick if they sign such a Type A free agent: the Rays, Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.  The other 15 teams would lose their second-round pick.

What happens if one team signs multiple Type As who were offered and turned down arbitration from their old clubs?  How is draft pick compensation sorted out? 

This scenario occurred last year when the Yankees signed three Type As: Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett.  Which team – the Angels, Brewers, or Blue Jays – received the Yanks' #25 draft pick?  It was the Angels for Teixeira.  The Brewers received the Yanks' #73 pick from the second round, and the Jays got the Yanks' #104 pick from the third round.  (Note that all three teams also received picks in the supplemental first round, but those were not taken from the Yankees).  So the Blue Jays got screwed – they hoped for a pick between #17 and #32, only to receive #104 for Burnett.

The Teixeira/Sabathia/Burnett situation was decided by each player's specific Elias ranking number.  Teixeira (98.889) nudged out Sabathia (98.110), while Burnett's number was 89.729.  So you see that the Brewers just missed getting #25 instead of #73.  They were further burned when Ben Sheets did not sign with a team.

With that background in mind, here are the Elias numbers for this year's Type A free agents (excluding Orlando Cabrera and Takashi Saito, who cannot be offered arbitration):

 Matt Holliday          95.960
Jose Valverde         89.874
Jason Bay              89.859
Johnny Damon       85.634
Mike Gonzalez        84.268
John Lackey          83.865
Rafael Soriano       83.667
Marco Scutaro       83.069
Orlando Hudson     82.488
Bengie Molina        81.224
Miguel Tejada        81.143
Randy Wolf           77.778
Billy Wagner          76.377
LaTroy Hawkins     76.344
Jermaine Dye        76.338
Rafael Betancourt  75.830
Darren Oliver         75.543
Kevin Gregg          75.114
Placido Polanco    74.286
Chone Figgins       73.684
Octavio Dotel         68.007

Using Scutaro as an example…say the Blue Jays offer arbitration and he turns it down.  The same happens with the Braves and Soriano.  If the Red Sox sign both players, Soriano's higher ranking means the Braves get Boston's #29 pick in the June 2010 draft and the Jays get Boston's #61 pick (the Braves and Blue Jays also both get picks in the supplemental first round).

This year's class of free agent starters is littered with high-risk, high-reward arms. These pitchers can dominate, but as the Red Sox found out with Brad Penny and John Smoltz, they aren't sure things.

Starters like Rich Harden (10.9K/9), Erik Bedard (9.8K/9), Ben Sheets (3.09 ERA in 2008), Justin Duchscherer (2.54 ERA in 2008), Smoltz (8.4K/9), Penny, Brett Myers and Randy Johnson (8.1K/9), provide plenty of options for teams willing to take a risk on an aging or recovering arm.

Would you offer any of these pitchers a multi-year deal? Which one of them is likeliest to pitch at an elite level next year?

Remember our October 5th list of non-tender candidates?  Since then, Jeremy Hermida, Mark Teahen, Aaron Heilman, Boof Bonser, Brian Bruney, and Matt Lindstrom have been traded, while John Bale, Mike Jacobs, and Ryan Church have been cut.  Others have been outrighted or eliminated from consideration.  The non-tender deadline is December 12th at 11pm CST.  Here's a revised list.

Jeremy Accardo
Alfredo Amezaga
Brian Anderson
Garrett Atkins
Jose Bautista
Taylor Buchholz
John Buck
Dave Bush
D.J. Carrasco
Kevin Correia
Neal Cotts
Jack Cust
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Garko
Chad Gaudin
Jody Gerut
Jonny Gomes
Gabe Gross
Conor Jackson
Bobby Jenks
Kelly Johnson
Logan Kensing
Ryan Langerhans
John Maine
Andy Marte
Seth McClung
Brandon Medders
Sergio Mitre
Dioner Navarro
Scott Olsen
Tim Redding
Jeremy Reed
Jason Repko
Cory Sullivan
Brian Tallet
Chien-Ming Wang

The full list of arbitration-eligible players can be found here; let me know who needs to be added to the non-tender candidates.

Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents list is up at ESPN, and as always it's a must-read (Insider required and recommended).  A few lines from his capsules that caught my eye…

• Randy Wolf is viewed as "much more of a No. 4 starter than a No. 2."
• 19-year-old Cuban lefty Noel Arguelles ranks tenth overall, with Law suggesting he'll top an $8MM contract.
• Law considers Mike Gonzalez the best available reliever, ranking him a few spots ahead of Rafael Soriano.  He says Soriano "should be looking for K-Rod money, given his skill set and track record."  Law is also a fan of hard-throwing Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi.  He's not terribly high on Jose Valverde, ranking him 36th.
• Law does not see Marlon Byrd as a starter on a contending club.

Congrats to Mike Scioscia of the Angels and Jim Tracy of the Rockies, both of whom were named Manager of the Year in their respective leagues this afternoon. Scioscia led the Halos to their third consecutive division title, while Tracy took over an 18-28 Rockies club in late May and guided them to a 74-42 finish.

Unsurprisingly, and certainly not undeservedly, Royals' righthander Zack Greinke was named the American League Cy Young Award winner today. Greinke was the clear favorite for the award, though you could have certainly made cases for some other AL hurlers. Do any of MLBTR's readers disagree with the selection?

Greinke's 2009 season wasn't just good, it was off-the-charts good. He posted a 2.16 ERA in 229.1 innings, striking out 242 batters and walking just 51 in the process. If you're a believer in WAR, Greinke's total of 9.4 was by far the most in baseball this year, and the most by a pitcher since Randy Johnson put up 9.9 WAR back in 2004.