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Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a list of "the first wave of minor league free agents."  See anyone you like?

RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Josh Banks
3B Brian Barden
C Edwin Bellorin
RHP Kris Benson
1B Wilson Betemit
LHP Travis Blackley
RHP Bryan Bullington
LHP Brian Burres
RHP Vinnie Chulk
RHP R.A. Dickey
3B Joe Dillon
RHP Brandon Duckworth
OF Chris Duffy
RHP Geoff Geary
RHP Enrique Gonzalez
C Michel Hernandez
RHP Philip Humber
OF Mitch Jones
2B Matt Kata
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Shane Loux
RHP Edwin Moreno
RHP Joe Nelson
C Guillermo Quiroz
RHP Steven Register
LHP Royce Ring
RHP Connor Robertson
LHP Glendon Rusch
OF Jeff Salazar
C Dane Sardinha
RHP Chris Schroder
3B Chris Shelton
2B Jason Smith
3B Craig Stansberry
RHP Denny Stark
LHP R.J. Swindle
LHP Jon Switzer

For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player.  The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.  Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.

Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."  For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09.  (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).

Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration.  Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).

Locks to be offered arb:  Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf

Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro

Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero

Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration.  That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, this is all just one person's opinion.  Let me know where you feel differently.  Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).

For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player.  The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.  Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.

Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."  For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09.  (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).

Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration.  Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).

Locks to be offered arb:  Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf

Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro

Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero

Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration.  That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, this is all just one person's opinion.  Let me know where you feel differently.  Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).

When Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel to end Game Three of the NLDS tonight, the Cardinals officially went into offseason mode, turning their eyes towards 2010. The team has several impending free agents, including Ankiel, Mark DeRosa, Matt Holliday, Troy Glaus, Khalil Greene, Jason LaRue, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz, and Todd Wellemeyer, while Ryan Ludwick and Skip Shumaker figure to get considerable raises through arbitration. Holliday projects to be a Type-A free agent, DeRosa and Pineiro come in as Type-B's.

St. Louis has an excellent core in place with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Colby Rasmus, and, of course, Albert Pujols, so the pieces are there. After finishing seventh in the NL with 730 runs scored and third with 640 runs allowed this year, what do you think the Cardinals need to do this winter to improve their team for next season?

I would appreciate it if you would take a brief four-question survey.  Each question is Yes or No, so it'll take less than a minute.  Thanks.  Click here to take the survey.

All the data is in for Eddie Bajek's Elias Ranking projections.  There may be a few errors to clean up but we'll take a look at the tentative rankings anyway.  The projected Type B free agents (asterisk denotes an option):

Garret Anderson
Rod Barajas
Erik Bedard
Joe Beimel
Ron Belliard
Adrian Beltre
Doug Brocail*
Marlon Byrd
Kiko Calero
Mike Cameron
Carl Crawford*
Doug Davis
Carlos Delgado
Justin Duchscherer
Scott Eyre
Pedro Feliz*
Chone Figgins
Jon Garland*
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Rich Harden
Ramon Hernandez*
Bob Howry
Aubrey Huff
Nick Johnson
Randy Johnson
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Adam LaRoche
Braden Looper*
Brandon Lyon
Jason Marquis
Hideki Matsui
Melvin Mora*
Guillermo Mota
Xavier Nady
Will Ohman*
Miguel Olivo*
Vicente Padilla*
Chan Ho Park
Carl Pavano
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Fernando Rodney
Ivan Rodriguez
Brian Schneider
Gary Sheffield
Brian Shouse*
Russ Springer
Jason Varitek*
Tim Wakefield*
Dave Weathers*
Brandon Webb*
Randy Winn
Gregg Zaun*

The biggest beneficiary of Type B status is Figgins, who was due an arbitration offer from the Angels whether he's A or B.  If his B ranking holds up, he'll be more attractive to other teams since he won't cost a draft pick.  Byrd, Nick Johnson, Marquis, Pavano, Pineiro, and Rodney seem like strong candidates to be offered arbitration.

When a Type B free agent is offered arbitration, turns it down, and signs elsewhere, the losing team does get one draft pick.  The pick does not come from the signing team; it is instead inserted into a supplemental round.  The Reds (Jeremy Affeldt), Rangers (Milton Bradley), Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon), Twins (Dennys Reyes), Brewers (Brian Shouse), and Angels (Jon Garland) were compensated with draft picks for Type B losses last year.

Eddie will take a final pass-through before signing off on his projected Elias Rankings, but all 2008-09 regular season data is included in the latest update.  Here's a list of the 31 free agents projected to have Type A status (an asterisk denotes an option):

Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt*
Orlando Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Mark DeRosa
Octavio Dotel
Jermaine Dye*
Brian Giles
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Kevin Gregg
Vladimir Guerrero
LaTroy Hawkins
Matt Holliday
Orlando Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee*
Victor Martinez*
Bengie Molina
Darren Oliver
Placido Polanco
Manny Ramirez*
Marco Scutaro
Rafael Soriano
Miguel Tejada
Jose Valverde
Billy Wagner*
Randy Wolf

We can remove Cabrera because he cannot contractually be offered arbitration, and we can assume the options for Lee and Martinez will be exercised.  That leaves 27 players. 

For the player, Type A status can be dangerous.  If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration and declines, his new team has to give up a draft pick to sign him.  The following teams would have to give up their first-round pick in 2010 if they sign a Type A free agent from another team who was offered and turned down arbitration: the Rays (#17), Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees.  The teams not listed would have to give up their second-round pick. 

If Holliday and Lackey sign with new clubs, those teams will presumably feel that the draft pick cost is acceptable.  Beyond those two, the cost might be prohibitive, as it was with Jason Varitek and others last offseason.  Last year, the Dodgers (Orlando Hudson), Mets (Francisco Rodriguez), Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Phillies (Raul Ibanez), and Angels (Brian Fuentes) were willing to surrender first-round picks.

Last winter's events might lead to a game of cat and mouse between players and teams this time around - teams will be less inclined to offer arbitration to their Type A free agents out of concern that those players will be more inclined to accept.  If a player accepts arbitration, he's under that team's control for 2010 and the two parties will go to a hearing if they can't agree on a salary.

Unless you've just started following baseball, as in today, you know that Phillies closer Brad Lidge isn't just in the middle of a bad year, but a historically bad year. His 7.48 ERA is the highest in history for a pitcher with 30+ saves, eclipsing Shawn Chacon's 7.11 mark back in 2004. Depending on who you ask, Lidge either still is or no longer is the Phillies closer, and with the playoffs less than two weeks away, the team has a pretty significant decision to make.

The once mighty Lidge has blown a Major League worst 11 saves on the year, and his peripherals have all declined precipitously across the board. With $24.5MM left on his contract over the next two years, the defending World Champs have to hope he's just experiencing a hangover year following a deep run into the postseason. Luckily, they have a top notch setup man in Ryan Madson to fall back on.

Barring a miraculous rebound in the postseason, the Phillies will start the 2010 season with a major question mark at the back of the bullpen. Do you think the Phightin's should look into adding another end game reliever this offseason? The free agent pool features plenty of relievers with closer experience, but will Philly pony up for another top notch closer?

Look no further than the Toronto Blue Jays or the Chicago Cubs to see the kind of franchise-changing effect a bad contract can have on an organization. Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells both signed nine-figure deals that their clubs must be regretting. Though the free agent market was depressed last winter, we saw teams commit to some massive deals.

There doesn't appear to be a Barry Zito–esque clunker among them, but some teams still overspent. Now that the regular season is only ten days away from completion, we have nearly an entire season's worth of information to help decide which move was the worst. (We won't really know how good or bad these deals are until they expire, of course, so we'll simply use the information we have so far.)

If you check out MLBTR's list of last winter's 20 biggest moves, you'll find that last offseason's most lucrative deals appear to have worked out. Where would the Yankees be without Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett? Ryan Dempster pitched well for the Cubs and Derek Lowe and Manny Ramirez added value to their respective clubs. But not every signing looks good. Here are some candidates for last winter's worst free agent signing:

• Oliver Perez - $36MM over three years - He allowed 51 runs in 66 innings for an ugly 6.82 ERA. Knee injuries shortened his season, but he still managed to walk 58 batters, almost one per frame.
• Milton Bradley - $30MM over three years - The volatile outfielder saw his OPS tumble by over 200 points this year. His off-field antics led to a suspension and the Cubs will now try to find a taker for the 31-year-old.
• Edgar Renteria - $18.5MM over two years, plus club option - Those who criticized the Giants for this deal appear to have been justified. Renteria hit just .250/.307/.328 and didn't play good enough defense to make up for his struggles at the plate.
• Jamie Moyer - $16MM over two years - To his credit, Moyer pitched over 150 innings for the defending champs. Still, do the Phils want to pay a hittable 47-year-old $8MM next year? Probably not.
• Pat Burrell – $16MM over two years – It's one thing for the Phillies to mis-spend, but the Rays don't have money to throw around. Andrew Friedman envisioned more than a .382 slugging percentage when he signed Burrell last winter.

So which of these contracts is the worst one? Was $161MM too much for a pitcher? Will Derek Lowe wear down? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments section.

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