Less Than 10% Chance To Make Playoffs

Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline?  To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report.  The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:

  • Pirates – 9.46%
  • Giants – 8.78%
  • Mariners – 6.14%
  • Rockies: 4.84%
  • Athletics: 4.36%
  • White Sox: 4.33%
  • Marlins: 3.20%
  • Orioles: 2.77%
  • Diamondbacks: 2.58%
  • Astros: 2.25%
  • Nationals: 0.52%

The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential.  The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance.  The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.

As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson.  This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis.  I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.

New Writers

We've added three new writers to the staff: Howard Megdal, Mike Axisa, and Eddie Schmid.  Thanks to all those who applied.  We are all filled up now.  I apologize if I was not able to reply to you.  It was painful to have to turn down so many quality writers.  I am keeping the applications on hand in case something opens up down the road.

Minor League Steals

A look at a few of the best minor league free agent deals signed during the offseason, despite the small samples:

  • Andruw Jones, Rangers.  The Dodgers must love to see Jones hitting .297/.439/.594 for pennies for the Rangers.
  • Kiko Calero, Marlins.  He has a 2.84 ERA and huge 12.79 K/9 in 19 innings for the Fish.
  • Matt Palmer, Angels. The 30 year-old rookie stepped into the Angels' rotation and provided four starts with a 3.37 ERA.
  • Jamey Wright, Royals.  Wright has a 1.66 ERA in 21.6 innings, with a 60.7% groundball rate.
  • Laynce Nix, Reds.  An unexpected source of left field power, Nix is hitting .294/.338/.603 in 74 plate appearances.
  • Nick Green, Red Sox.  The Sox have weathered injuries at shortstop with Green, who's hitting .302/.368/.430 in 95 plate appearances.
  • Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, Giants.  Maybe they don't deserve their sub-4.00 ERAs, but both scrap heap pickups have helped the Giants' pen.
  • Omar Vizquel, Rangers.  He's hitting .378/.425/.541 in 42 PAs while logging 61 innings at shortstop and even chipping in at third base.
  • Jeff Weaver, Dodgers.  Weaver's posted a 3.38 ERA in 16 innings, including two acceptable starts.
  • Jason Jennings, Rangers.  Working out of the pen, Jennings has a 3.24 ERA in 16.6 innings.
  • Honorable mentions: Bobby Scales, Omir Santos, Craig Monroe.  Who are we missing?

Discussion: NL’s Most Underrated

MLB.com's Corey Brock polled MLB managers and executives on the NL's most underrated players.  Jayson Werth and Adrian Gonzalez won the vote.  Others receiving multiple votes: Ryan Theriot, Corey Hart, Shane Victorino, Ryan Doumit, and Garrett Atkins.

Joey Votto and Ted Lilly are a few others who come to mind, and Wandy Rodriguez isn't getting enough notice for what he's done this year.  Carlos Beltran also seems somewhat unappreciated.  Who do you consider to be the most underrated players in the National League?

MLBTR Looking For Writers

Would you like to join the MLB Trade Rumors team?  We are looking to add a couple of writers.  The position pays on an hourly basis.  The criteria:

  • Strong evening availability – typically 5-10pm CST shifts. 
  • Knowledge of all 30 baseball teams, no discernible bias toward your favorite.  Knowledge of basic hot stove concepts, arbitration for example.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs.  I want the best of both worlds, as you have to be able to do this very quickly after the source article is published.  It's preferred that you add value to the article with your own insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Attention to detail – absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.  Ability to follow the MLBTR style and tone.  Also it is important to avoid duplicating content previously covered on the site and avoid posting about topics MLBTR does not cover.
  • Ability to use an RSS feed reader such as Google Reader.  This is crucial.
  • Blogging experience is preferred.  We use TypePad, which is easy to use if you have blogged before.
  • You have to be able to put up with me, responding to constructive criticism and digesting the MLBTR instruction document quickly.
  • If you're interested, email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and explain your qualifications.  Also, within the body of your email (not as an attachment) write one sample, fictional MLBTR post using real players.  For this sample post, come up with something that could actually happen.
  • Please don't send anything to my other email address.  Usually we receive a few hundred inquiries, so unfortunately I cannot reply to all or even most.  Thanks.
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