Playoff Odds Update
The season's now two and a half months old, so it's a good time to check the current Playoff Odds report at Baseball Prospectus. When Tim analyzed these odds a couple weeks ago, there were eleven teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Now, there are ten such teams, but since the Pirates are sitting right on 10%, essentially the same number of teams seems to be out of the race.
- Mariners – 9.5%
- Royals – 9.2%
- Braves – 8.8%
- White Sox – 5.4%
- Astros – 4.8%
- A's – 2.9%
- Diamondbacks – 2.0%
- Padres – 1.5%
- Orioles – 0.3%
- Nationals – 0.0%
These odds can change in a hurry, as the Rockies proved, but it takes a lot. This doesn't mean these teams will all become sellers, but it would be surprising to see any of these teams, even the Braves or Mariners, make the playoffs. Contenders will probably find that adding Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff is simpler than dealing for players like Brad Hawpe, whose teams are back in the race.
Discussion: Should The Cards Extend Pujols Now?
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cardinals should try to extend Albert Pujols' contract soon, instead of waiting until the first baseman becomes a free agent after 2011. Here's his reasoning:
- Already a two-time MVP with a batting title, a World Series win and the fourth highest OPS of all-time, Pujols could finish his career as the greatest right-handed hitter ever.
- He's a good defender and a smart baserunner.
- Cardinals fans love him and would be devastated to see their star leave.
- Baseball Prospectus projects Pujols to be an elite hitter well into his thirties.
- An injury between now and the end of the 2011 season could prevent him from playing, limit some elements of his game, or lower his market value.
- They can wait a year and a half and still have exclusive negotiating rights next winter.
- It's hard to imagine Pujols ever having more negotiating power than he does now.
What do you think the Cardinals should do?
Discussion: Which Injury Hurts The Most?
As always, a slew of players have suffered serious injuries this year. My question to you: which one will ultimately hurt the player's team the most? Leaving Manny Ramirez aside, examples include Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Aramis Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Rickie Weeks, Carlos Delgado, Jake Peavy, Brett Myers, Ervin Santana, Brandon Webb, Jose Valverde, and John Lackey. Who's your pick?
Discussion: Veterans In Triple-A
One year ago today, the Mets swung a deal for veteran outfielder Trot Nixon, who at the time was hitting .309-.437-.558 for Triple-A Tuscon. While Nixon wasn't much of a boost to the Mets' offense, teams could still look to patch up holes without breaking the bank by acquiring veterans stuck in the minors. Let's take at some guys who have been performing well down in Triple-A and could possibly offer a big league team help off the bench or out of the bullpen. First, the position players:
- Andy Marte: .321-.351-.530 in 171 PA while playing first and third for Cleveland's AAA affiliate.
- Shelley Duncan: .310-.379-.670 in 227 PA, leading the International League in homers and RBI, and not by a small margin either. He's played the corner outfield spots and first base for the AAA Scranton Yankees.
- Hector Luna: .351-.413-.655 in 218 PA, playing first, second and third base for the Dodgers' top minor league club.
Marte has certainly gotten his fair share of big league opportunities, as has Luna. Both could possibly offer infield depth to a team beset by injuries. Duncan has had a tremendous offensive season (not quite a Jake Fox season, though), but swings from the right side, so he's not an ideal pinch hitter for an NL club. Here's some pitchers:
- Lenny DiNardo: 3.48 ERA, 52-13 K/BB in 64.2 IP, mostly out of the rotation in the Royals' organization.
- Elmer Dessens: 1.15 ERA, 26-7 K/BB in 31.1 IP, working exclusively out of the bullpen for the Mets' AAA affiliate.
- Brendan Donnelly: 2.04 ERA, 16-5 K/BB in 17.2 IP, all as a reliever with Houston's top minor league team.
None of these three are strangers to the big leagues. DiNardo could be particularly attractive to a team looking to add another lefty to their relief corps, especially since he could spot start as well. Donnelly has playoff and World Series experience, which has value to some.
Do you see any teams that could be possible fits for these guys? Are there any other veteran players down in Triple-A that could help someone?
Discussion: Best Minor League Contracts
One of the staples of the Hot Stove League is the minor league contract. Teams hand them out to aging veterans, players coming off injuries, guys looking for one last shot to extend their careers, stuff like that. Now that we're just over one-third of the way through the season, let's discuss some players who've made the most of their opportunity.
Here's some notable performances:
- Livan Hernandez: 3.88 ERA in 11 starts coming into tonight for the Mets.
- Omar Vizquel: .345-.379-.455 in 60 plate appearances while playing short, second, and even some third for the Rangers.
- Juan Uribe: .296-.317-.435 in 121 plate appearance for the Giants. He's played all over the infield.
- Adam Kennedy: .328-.406-.525 in 140 plate appeances for the A's after signing with the Rays.
Who do you think has been the best player after signing a minor league deal this past offseason? Anyone I miss?
Discussion: Should MLB Limit Signing Bonuses?
There is no hard limit on the bonuses teams can award the players they draft, just a recommended cap. ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported yesterday that some GMs wonder whether the draft actually helps bad teams. As he says, the Padres knew how good Justin Verlander was when they chose Matt Bush instead, they just wanted a signable player.
Can we improve the game by limiting the bonuses amateur players can receive? Changing the current system would be complicated and controversial, as Scott Boras and others don't want restrictions on the bonuses they can negotiate for their clients (Stephen Strasburg comes to mind). So what would happen if MLB limited bonuses?
- Such a change would transfer money and power to teams from amateur players and their agents.
- Teams would be more likely to select the most talented players, instead of going for a combination of talent and signability.
- Players like Rick Porcello would be less likely to slide, since teams would be less wary of the bonuses they might demand.
- Agents would receive less money when brokering deals for their amateur clients.
- There wouldn't be nearly as much drama and uncertainty surrounding the negotiatons.
Is it in the best interest of the game to restrict player bonuses? Some would do away with the draft altogether. Or should we leave the current system alone and just enjoy the games?
Discussion: Who Would You Start A Franchise With?
The results are in from Sports Illustrated's annual poll. Scouts and executives were asked which five active players they would start a franchise with. Albert Pujols won easily, besting runners-up Evan Longoria, Zack Greinke, Joe Mauer and Hanley Ramirez. The five players topping SI's list are phenomenal, but what about pitchers Roy Halladay and Johan Santana? Or youngsters like Fernando Martinez and Matt Wieters? How about Stephen Strasburg?
Looking Back At June 2008
A glance through the MLBTR archives reveals what happened last June. Here are some highlights from a busy month:
- The A's signed 16-year-old prospect Michel Inoa with a $4.25MM bonus. Miguel Angel Sano can't sign this month, but there are parallels between the two teenage Dominicans.
- In one of several nasty twists to the month, pitcher Shawn Chacon shoved Astros GM Ed Wade to the floor. Not surprisingly, the altercation led to the righty's release.
- Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi took a cheap shot at Adam Dunn, not literally, like Chacon, but on the radio. He said the slugger didn't have "passion" for baseball. Passionate or not, Dunn went on to hit 40 homers for the fourth straight season.
- Three managers lost their jobs: Willie Randolph of the Mets, John Gibbons of the Blue Jays and John McLaren of the Mariners.
- Believe it or not, the Stephen Strasburg rumors began a full year ago.
- C.C. Sabathia, Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes were some of the bigger names involved in trade rumors.
- And of course there was the draft. Tim Beckham went first overall to the Rays, followed by Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) and Eric Hosmer (Royals).
Recent Trades
As deals take place this summer we'll keep track of them in this post, which will sit under "MLBTR Features" on the side. Here's what we've got so far:
- The Orioles dealt Ryan Freel to the Cubs for Joey Gathright on May 8th.
- The A's acquired Adam Kennedy from the Rays for Joe Dillon on May 8th.
- The Brewers traded Tony Gwynn Jr. to the Padres for Jody Gerut on May 21st.
- The White Sox acquired Ramon Castro, dealing Lance Broadway to the Mets on May 29th.
- The Braves acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, and Gorkys Hernandez on June 3rd.
- The Indians acquired Jose Veras from the Yankees for cash considerations on June 24th.
- The Reds acquired Corky Miller, sending Norris Hopper to the White Sox on June 26th.
- The Cardinals acquired Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez and a PTBNL on June 27th.
- The Mariners acquired Ryan Langerhans in exchange for Mike Morse on June 28th.
- The Yankees acquired Eric Hinske from the Pirates for two minor leaguers on June 30th.
- The Pirates acquired Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett on June 30th.
- The Cubs acquired Jeff Baker from the Rockies for Alberto Alburquerque on July 2nd.
- The Indians acquired Winston Abreu from the Rays for minor leaguer John Meloan on July 2nd.
- The A's acquired Scott Hairston from the Padres on July 5th.
- The Royals acquired Ryan Freel and cash from the Cubs for a PTBNL on July 6th.
- The White Sox acquired Tony Pena from the D'Backs for Brandon Allen on July 7th.
- The Royals acquired Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners for two minor league pitchers on July 10th.
- The Braves acquired Ryan Church from the Mets for Jeff Francoeur on July 10th.
- The Mariners acquired Jack Hannahan from the A's for a minor league righty on July 11th.
- The Orioles acquired Cla Meredith from the Padres for Oscar Salazar on July 19th.
- The Brewers acquired Felipe Lopez from the D'Backs for a pair of minor leaguers on July 19th.
- The Red Sox acquired Adam LaRoche for two minor leaguers on July 22nd.
- The Red Sox sent Julio Lugo to the Cardinals for Chris Duncan on July 22nd.
- The Rockies acquired Rafael Betancourt from the Indians for a minor leaguer on July 23rd.
- The Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday from the A's for top prospect Brett Wallace and two other minor leaguers on July 24th.
- The Giants acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for a minor league pitcher on July 27th.
- The White Sox acquired outfielder Mark Kotsay and cash from the Red Sox for outfielder Brian Anderson on July 28th.
- The Mariners acquired Ian Snell, Jack Wilson and cash from the Pirates for five players including Ronny Cedeno and Jeff Clement on July 29th.
- The Reds acquired Wladimir Balentien from the Mariners for a minor leaguer on July 29th.
- The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson on July 29th.
- The Giants acquired Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Tim Alderson on July 29th.
- The Yankees acquired Jason Hirsh from the Rockies on July 29th.
- The Royals acquired outfielder Josh Anderson from the Tigers for cash considerations on July 30th.
- The Dodgers acquired reliever George Sherrill from the Orioles for minor leaguers Josh Bell and Steve Johnson.
- The Cubs acquired pitchers John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny for Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison.
- The Tigers acquired pitcher Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners for pitchers Luke French and Mauricio Robles.
- The Twins acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera from the A's for shortstop Tyler Ladendorf.
- The Brewers acquired pitcher Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers for catcher Vinny Rottino.
- The Red Sox acquired catcher Victor Martinez from the Indians for pitchers Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson.
- The Yankees acquired Jerry Hairston Jr. from the Reds.
- The Rockies acquired Joe Beimel from the Nationals.
- The Braves acquired Adam LaRoche from the Red Sox for Casey Kotchman.
- The Marlins acquired Nick Johnson for minor league lefty Aaron Thompson.
- The Reds acquired Scott Rolen for Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart.
- The White Sox acquired Jake Peavy for Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter.
- The Mets re-acquired Anderson Hernandez from the Nats for minor league second baseman Greg Veloz on August 6th.
- The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin from the Padres for a player to be named later on August 6th.
- The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians for a player to be named later on August 7th.
- The Rays acquired Gregg Zaun from the Orioles for a player to be named later or cash on August 7th.
- The White Sox acquired Alex Rios from the Blue Jays on August 10th.
- The Red Sox acquired Alex Gonzalez from the Reds on August 14th.
- The Tigers acquired Aubrey Huff from the Orioles for a minor leaguer on August 17th.
- The Rangers acquired Ivan Rodriguez from the Astros for minor leaguers Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez on August 18th.
- The Mariners acquired Bill Hall and cash from the Brewers for minor leaguer Ruben Flores on August 19th.
- The Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner from the Mets for two minor leaguers on August 25th.
- The Twins acquired Ron Mahay from the Royals on August 28th.
- The Twins acquired Jon Rauch from the D'Backs for a PTBNL on August 28th.
- The Angels acquired Scott Kazmir for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL on August 28th.
- The Red Sox acquired Joey Gathright from the Orioles on August 29th.
- The Dodgers acquired Ronnie Belliard from the Nationals for minor leaguer Luis Garcia on August 30th.
- The Nationals acquired Jamie Burke from the Mariners for cash on September 17th.
Baby News
I've got great news…my wife and I are having a baby! She is due in late June/early July, and we couldn't be more excited. Ben Nicholson-Smith will be stepping in here at MLBTR for a while, as I'll be focusing on baby-related things.
