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CHONE Projected Standings

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Sean Smith’s projected standings are out, using his CHONE projection system.  His playoff teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, and the Braves or Mets.  You can contrast these projections with those from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system.

The two systems project the exact same number of wins for the Orioles (74), Twins (79), White Sox (73), Angels (85), and Rangers (72).

Their biggest disagreements: the D’Backs (79 vs. 92 wins), Pirates (73 vs. 64 wins), and the Cubs (88 vs. 96 wins).

Of course, this is really just a fun exercise…there are way too many variables to predict the standings in February.  Even if the systems nail the win totals it may be for the wrong reasons.

The Remaining Free Agent Market

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As we anxiously wait for Manny Ramirez, Orlando Cabrera and others to sign, remember to keep an eye on MLBTR’s list of remaining free agents for 2009 (there’s also a link under MLBTR Features, on the right side of the site).

Beyond Manny and Cabrera, there are a few lefty relievers available (guys like Joe Beimel and Dennys Reyes), as well as some older position players that may have some pop left in the bat yet. Do any teams need a centerfielder than can hit righties, like Jim Edmonds? Will the Cardinals go after Mark Grudzielanek to replace Adam Kennedy?

Manny aside, there are still a few other impact players on the market to keep an eye on.

2009 Super Two Players

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This year, 16 of the arbitration-eligible players qualified as Super Twos.  These players go to arbitration four times instead of the normal three.  Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball has contributed the following table, and provides analysis and more detail here.

Salary Arbitration 2009 – The Super Twos
Player
Pos
ST
Club
2008
Player Fig.
Club Fig.
Diff
Mid
+/- Mid
Date
Outcome
’09 Base Salary
Inc. from ’08 (%)
Luke Scott
OF
2.144
BAL
$430K
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$2.4M
458%
Taylor Buchholz
RP
2.140
CO
$399K
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$1.055M
164%
Ricky Nolasco
SP
2.142
FL
$390K
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$2.4M
515%
Humberto Quintero
C
2.141
HO
$405K
—
—
—
—
—
1/19
$610K
51%
Brian Bannister
SP
2.158
KC
$421K
$2.025M
$1.45M
$575K
$1.7375M
$0
2/4
$1.7375M
313%
Mike Napoli
C
2.151
LAA
$401,500
—
—
—
—
—
1/19
$2M
398%
Andre Ethier
OF
2.153
LAD
$424,500
$3.75M
$2.65M
$1.1M
$3.2M
-$100K
2/17
$3.1M
630%
Russell Martin
C
2.150
LAD
$500K
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$3.9M
680%
Angel Pagan
OF
2.144
NYM
$425K
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$575K
35%
* Melky Cabrera
OF
2.148
NYY
$461,200
$1.7M
$1.2M
$500K
$1.45M
-$50K
1/20
$1.4M
204%
Cole Hamels
SP
2.143
PH
$500K
—
—
—
—
—
1/19
$4.35M
770%
Jack Taschner
RP
2.146
SF
$400,500
—
—
—
—
—
1/20
$835K
108%
Chris Duncan
OF
2.144
SL
$439K
—
—
—
—
—
1/19
$825K
88%
Willy Aybar
3B
2.153
TB
$401,200
$1.05M
$900K
$150K
$975K
$0
2/18
$975K
143%
Brandon League
RP
2.145
TO
$400,300
—
—
—
—
—
1/19
$640K
60%
Shawn Hill
SP
2.153
WA
$402K
$775K
$500K
$275K
$637,500
$137,500
2/7
$775K
93%

Who Had The Scoop?

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Given the number of journalists in competition these days, as well as the instantaneous nature of breaking news, it is very difficult to scoop a major baseball story.  Let’s tip our cap to the journalists who were the first to report this winter’s biggest deals.  I won’t list them here, but in many cases one person scooped the agreement and a second person had the terms.  Many of these are open to interpretation due to the language used.

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