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Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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The MLB hot stove isn’t exactly isn’t exactly burning right now during the lockout, but that’ll change eventually.  While you wait, why not check out the free MLB Trade Rumors newsletter?  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.

 

This free newsletter comes out Monday through Friday in the morning.  Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email.  If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

Five-Year Deals For Free Agent Starting Pitchers Rarely End Well

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Prior to the lockout this winter, three starting pitchers signed free agent deals for exactly five years:

  • Mariners signed Robbie Ray for five years, $115MM with an opt-out after third year
  • Blue Jays signed Kevin Gausman for five years, $110MM
  • Tigers signed Eduardo Rodriguez for five years, $77MM with an opt-out after second year

Free agent contracts of exactly this length are fairly rare.  We saw a pair of five-year starting pitcher deals in the 2019-20 offseason for Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner.  Before that, you have to go back to the 2015-16 offseason, when teams incredibly inked five of them.  Interestingly, Marcus Stroman signed a three-year deal prior to the lockout even though we predicted five

I think free agent starting pitchers signing five-year deals have some commonality: the combination of their ability and age resulted in enough market pressure for exactly that number of years, no more and no less.  I’d say it’s generally a pitcher who is considered good or very good, yet something short of an ace.  While it’s true that market conditions may result in a five-year deal for a pitcher in a certain offseason and not another, these guys still seem to fall within the same bracket.

Going back to Gil Meche’s December 2006 contract with the Royals, 11 different free agent pitchers have signed five-year deals that are now completed.  Spoiler alert: very few of these ended well.  Stat note: ERA- is a park and league-adjusted version of ERA, where 100 is average and lower is better.

Jordan Zimmermann: five-year, $110MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 97
  • ERA-: 127
  • fWAR: 5.0
  • bWAR: 0.9
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 1, when Zimmermann posted a 4.87 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Zimmermann made three September outings in the shortened 2020 season.  He’d go on to make two appearances with the Brewers this year before retiring.  By measure of bWAR, Zimmermann’s performance was the second-worst of this sample.

Jeff Samardzija: five-year, $90MM deal with Giants

  • Starts: 110
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 6.9
  • bWAR: 7.1
  • When Regret Set In: Samardzija was solid in three of the five years, including the fourth.  So regret never really set in here.
  • How It Ended: Samardzija made four starts in the shortened season.  He has not pitched since.

Mike Leake: five-year, $80MM deal with Cardinals

  • Starts: 124
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 5.8
  • When Regret Set In: Year 1, when Leake posted a 4.69 ERA.  In August of Year 2, Leake cleared waivers and was traded to the Mariners along with $17MM.
  • How It Ended: Leake opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, forgoing his salary.  He hasn’t pitched since September 24th, 2019.

Wei-Yin Chen: five-year, $80MM deal with Marlins

  • Starts: 53
  • ERA-: 129
  • fWAR: 2.1
  • bWAR: -0.6
  • When Regret Set In:  At some point in Year 1, in which Chen posted a 4.96 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Chen was released with a year remaining on his contract, with the Marlins eating $22MM in salary.  He signed a minor league deal with the Mariners but was released in June 2020.  Chen signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines and made four appearances in ’20.  He pitched for the Hanshin Tigers in 2021.  Chen’s Marlins contract was the worst of all of these five-year deals.

Ian Kennedy: five-year, $70MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 86
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 3.9
  • bWAR: 6.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Kennedy posted a 5.38 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Kennedy was moved to the bullpen in the fourth year of the deal, saving 30 games.  He struggled in 14 relief innings in 2020 to finish out the contract.

Anibal Sanchez: five-year, $80MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 118
  • ERA-: 109
  • fWAR: 12.0
  • bWAR: 7.0
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Sanchez posted a 4.99 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Sanchez played out the contract with the Tigers and posted a 6.41 ERA in 2017, the final season.

C.J. Wilson: five-year, $77.5MM deal with Angels

  • Starts: 119
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 7.5
  • bWAR: 5.7
  • When Regret Set In: Wilson had a 3.89 ERA as late as Year 4 of the contract, so you could argue that regret didn’t set in until he had season-ending shoulder surgery in August of that year.
  • How It Ended: No one realized it at the time, but Wilson’s career was over after that August 2015 surgery and he’d be injured for all of Year 5.

Cliff Lee: five-year, $120MM deal with Phillies

  • Starts: 106
  • ERA-: 76
  • fWAR: 19.6
  • bWAR: 20.2
  • When Regret Set In/How It Ended: One of these things is not like the others, as Lee was an ace when he signed to remain with the Phillies.  Lee made his last start for the Phillies, and of his career, on July 31st of 2014 – three and a half years into the contract.  He left that trade deadline start with an elbow injury and never pitched again, yet he was so good in those three and a half years that it’s fair to say the Phillies never regretted the contract.

John Lackey: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Red Sox

  • Starts: 121
  • ERA-: 106
  • fWAR: 9.2
  • bWAR: 3.6
  • When Regret Set In: Quite soon, with Lackey posting a 4.40 ERA in Year 1 and a 6.41 mark in Year 2.  At that point, Lackey underwent Tommy John surgery.
  • How It Ended: Lackey’s time with the Red Sox ended with a bit of a resurgence, as he posted a 3.60 ERA in 21 Year 5 starts before being traded at the deadline to the Cardinals for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  What’s more, the Red Sox included a clause in Lackey’s contract that triggered a league-minimum sixth-year option upon the Tommy John procedure.  This turned into a six-year deal in which the Cardinals received a stellar 2015 campaign from Lackey for just $500K.

A.J. Burnett: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Yankees

  • Starts: 159
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 12.2
  • bWAR: 8.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Burnett posted a 5.26 ERA.
  • How It Ended: After three seasons of Burnett, the Yankees shipped him to the Pirates and kicked in $20MM of the $33MM still owed to him.  Burnett flourished with the change of scenery.

Gil Meche: five-year, $55MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 100
  • ERA-: 96
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 10.2
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Meche posted a 5.09 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Meche underwent shoulder surgery in July of Year 4, and the Royals planned to use him in relief in the final season of the contract.  Instead, Meche felt that he didn’t deserve the $12MM he still had coming.  He retired, letting the Royals off the hook for all of the money.

Conclusion

It’s not fair to take this 11-pitcher sample and say that the deals for Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez won’t work out.  Teams are evaluating pitchers better, and the Chen contract doesn’t have anything to do with how Ray will hold up.  Perhaps we can set the bar for a successful five-year starting pitcher contract at 10 total WAR: 3 in Year 1, 2.5 in Year 2, 2.0 in Year 3, 1.5 in Year 4, and 1.0 in Year 5.  By fWAR, Lee, Burnett, and Sanchez were able to accomplish that.  By bWAR, only Lee and Meche got there.  Over the life of their contracts, only those two produced an ERA better than league average.

How many of these 11 contracts ended with a useful pitcher still working for the signing team at the end of Year 5?  Zero.  However, five-year deals are given out because of market pressure, not because the team expects five strong years out of the pitcher.  Lee produced 17.7 WAR in the first three years of his deal, so the rest didn’t matter.  Meche, Wilson, Samardzija, and Sanchez started off their contracts with a pair of strong seasons.  Zack Wheeler isn’t in this sample but he’s well on his way to 10+ WAR for the Phillies despite a shortened 2020 season.  Madison Bumgarner, however, seems like a long shot.

What do the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Tigers really expect out of Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez?  If they looked at these comparables, they’re likely expecting two strong years and hopefully a third.  If Ray or Rodriguez sees fit to opt out, the clubs will likely have gotten the best of them and could duck a few decline years.

MLBTR Seeking Fantasy Baseball Writer

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MLB Trade Rumors is seeking a fantasy baseball writer.  This is a paid part-time position that will include a weekly article and live chat running at least January through March.  We’re looking for expertise in rotisserie and head-to-head fantasy baseball, but the position won’t involve daily fantasy sports writing.  The ideal candidate will have experience that includes writing paid fantasy baseball articles online.  Applicants should send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com with the following:

  • Explanation of why you might be considered a fantasy baseball expert
  • Samples of online fantasy baseball writing

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Update

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Our free agent prediction contest closed for entries on November 15th.  To date, 17 of our top 50 free agents have signed.  Of the 6,233 people who entered our contest, only three people have as many as eight predictions correct so far.

To follow along with the contest results, check out the leaderboard here.  You can also check out how 11 participating MLBTR staff members are doing here.  You can search for your own name in the contest results, and you can also click on anyone’s name to see their individual picks.

Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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UPDATE: The contest is now closed.  More than 6,200 people entered!  The leaderboard will be available soon.

It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry is TONIGHT at 11pm central time!  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving  one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • MLB owners are expected to lock out the players this winter, putting a freeze on transactions.  The winners of this contest will be declared on May 1st, 2022, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.  If fewer than 30 players are signed at that point, the contest will be canceled.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Carlos Correa (#1 ranking) and Anthony Rizzo (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points.  Steve gets Marcus Semien (#6) and Eduardo Rodriguez (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
  • I mistakenly forgot to change the Indians to the Guardians in the contest form.  I’m going to leave that mistake to make sure I don’t break anything by trying to change it.  Sorry about that.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

Dodgers Activate Mookie Betts, Option Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty

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The Dodgers activated Mookie Betts from the injured list and recalled Darien Nunez. In terms of the corresponding moves, Gavin Lux and Matt Beaty were optioned to Triple-A, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter).

These moves are at least in part due to yesterday’s marathon 16-inning game (though Betts, of course, would return no matter the circumstances). Nunez can provide a fresh arm to a busy bullpen. The southpaw has logged 7 1/3 innings with the Dodgers over six outings while being tagged for three home runs and eight runs total (seven earned). He’s been solid in the minors, however, with a 2.29 ERA in 39 1/3 innings.

More curious here are the demotions of Lux and Beaty. With the acquisition of Trea Turner, there simply aren’t many at-bats left for Lux and Beaty – not with Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy all expecting regular playing time as well. Both Lux and Beaty will benefit from consistent playing time in Triple-A. After all, Lux has had just one plate appearance in the past week; Beaty has been used regularly as a pinch-hitter, but he’s started just two games in August.

Boras Corp. Baseball Research Analyst Job Opening

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From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

Position: Baseball Research Analyst – Full-time
Location: Newport Beach, CA

Description:
The Boras Corporation has an immediate opening for a creative, well-organized team player with a genuine interest in a career in baseball. You will be working in an office-based setting with others responsible for handling a variety of research, statistical and analytical needs. The ideal candidate will have personal experience in a team-sports environment combined with ability to present complex information in a visual presentation.

Minimum qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree from an accredited university (or sufficient relevant experience)
  • Prior baseball or team sports experience
  • Proficient in Keynote presentations, visual graphics, and Microsoft Excel
  • Outstanding communication, analytical, and organizational skills
  • Able to operate under short deadlines in a fast-paced environment

Additional Qualifications:

  • Fluent in Spanish (written and verbal)

To Apply:
Please send an email with the subject “Open BC Position” to borascorpcandidate@gmail.com by July 15, 2021.

The body of the email should contain the following, in this order:

  • Your resume.
  • In addition to the traditional resume information, please be sure to include any details about athletic experience and your ability to communicate in Spanish.
  • Your full contact information.
  • Personal and professional references
  • How you obtained this listing.
  • Your minimum annual salary requirement (needs to be a specific dollar figure).

Emails that do not contain all of this information will not be considered. Please do not send cover letters or attachments.

Pirates, T.J. Rivera Agree To Minor League Deal

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Infielder T.J. Rivera has agreed to a minor league contract with the Pirates, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The deal is pending a physical.

Rivera signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League just four days ago, but he’ll instead attempt to work his way back to the majors with the Pirates. Now 32 years old, Rivera appeared in the bigs with the Mets from 2016-17 and batted an effective .304/.335/.445 across 231 plate appearances. The Mets looked as if they had a quality piece in Rivera, but injuries helped to at least temporarily end his time in the majors during his last year with the club. He underwent Tommy John surgery then and dealt with an elbow sprain while recovering in 2018, after which the Mets released him.

On the heels of his Mets tenure, Rivera inked minors deals with the Nationals and Phillies, but he didn’t return to MLB with either team. Now, as long as Rivera passes his physical, he’ll have an opportunity to stage a comeback with Pittsburgh.

MLB’s Mounting Injury Problem

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We’ve seen plenty of fans and readers comment early in the 2021 season that it feels as though injuries are up from previous years, and that is indeed the case, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic breaks down in an excellent look at the increased IL stints of the non-Covid variety. IL placements are up 15 percent overall compared to the first month of the 2019 season, Rosenthal reports, with a 22 percent uptick among pitchers. Specifically, soft-tissue injuries such as hamstring, quadriceps and oblique injuries have nearly doubled in frequency, while arm and elbow injuries are up by a much slighter margin of 19 percent.

Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, Pirates GM Ben Cherington and Marlins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. all discuss the issue with Rosenthal, offering opinions on everything ranging from the root of some injuries to the level of club-to-club variance in treating injuries, managing player workload and other health-related matters. For anyone who’s been alarmed at the number of injuries that seem to be spanning throughout the league, it’s a must-read piece with insight straight from key team decision-makers who are faced with these challenges everyday.

It’s not surprising to see more concrete data backing up what many have suspected to be the case: injuries are spiking around the league. While some clubs are surely just being cautious with minor injuries for key players — Tim Anderson, Josh Donaldson, Max Fried and Trent Grisham all had very brief IL stints for hamstring issues — it’s hard to ignore both the volume of IL transactions and the extent of some of the early injuries.

We’ve already seen Kole Calhoun, Ketel Marte, Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Alfaro, Brendan Rodgers, Shogo Akiyama and Jake Fraley sustain hamstring injuries that will keep (or already have kept) them out three-plus weeks. Calhoun’s, which required surgery, could cost him two months. MLB.com’s transactions log shows 13 IL placements due to oblique strains in April alone — three of which have resulted in the player being moved to the 60-day injured list (Julian Merryweather, Rowan Wick, Bobby Wahl). George Springer has already hit the IL with an oblique injury to open the year and now a quadriceps strain, so he checks the box for a pair of those soft-tissue injuries.

Elbow troubles are nothing new for pitchers, of course, but we’ve seen a bevy of Tommy John surgeries already in 2021. Dustin May, Kirby Yates, James Paxton, Adrian Morejon, Luis Avilan, Jose Leclerc, Jonathan Hernandez, Jimmy Cordero, Blake Cederlind, Roenis Elias, Forrest Whitley, Jose Castillo, Michel Baez and Bryan Mata are just some of the big leaguers and notable prospects to undergo UCL replacement surgery since Spring Training opened a couple months back.

We’ve also already seen several of the game’s exciting young stars impacted. The White Sox may not get another plate appearance from Luis Robert (hip flexor strain) or Eloy Jimenez (ruptured pectoral tendon) in 2021. Ke’Bryan Hayes has missed much of the season with a wrist issue, and the Marlins are still building Sixto Sanchez back up after shoulder troubles stalled him. Adalberto Mondesi hasn’t played a game for the Royals yet thanks to an oblique injury. Fernando Tatis Jr. is playing through a shoulder subluxation. Obviously, not all of these are unique to 2021. The volume of injuries is nevertheless alarming.

Clubs will continue exercise caution and utilize a number of minimal, 10-day stints on the IL to manage workload and to creatively keep fresh arms available on their pitching staff. Such tactics are commonplace every year, and that’ll probably be all the more true in 2021 given concerns about the dramatic workload increase over 2020 (particularly among players who spent most of last year working at alternate sites). However, the early trend is concerning with regard to soft-tissue injuries and arm troubles for pitchers. Trepidation regarding those arm injuries, in particular, only figures to escalate as pitcher workloads increase over the next five months.

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