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Follow The NBA Trade Deadline At Hoops Rumors

By Rory Maher | February 10, 2022 at 7:59am CDT

MLB lockout got you down?  The NBA trade deadline is less than seven hours away, and our sister site Hoops Rumors (@HoopsRumors on Twitter) has all the latest news and rumors for each of the league’s 30 teams!

We’ve already seen several major trades in the past week, with CJ McCollum headed to the Pelicans in a seven-player trade, and the Kings shocking the basketball world by sending rising star Tyrese Haliburton to the Pacers for two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis as part of a six-player swap.

Amid a nine-game losing streak, former MVP James Harden has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated with the Nets – will he be traded for disgruntled Sixers star Ben Simmons? Could a trade between the defending champion Bucks and the Celtics be brewing? Will the Pacers and Kings continue to reshape their rosters? The struggling Lakers are feeling urgency to make moves — will they be able to pull something off before 2:00pm CT?

For the latest updates on those stories and more, check out Hoops Rumors today! Last season saw a total of 24 in-season trades, including 16 on deadline day alone, and this season could be just as action-packed! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter – @HoopsRumors.

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MLB Planning, Subject To Union Approval, To Reopen Clubhouse Access For Credentialed Media

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2022 at 6:02pm CDT

Major League Baseball has informed the Baseball Writers Association of America that it is planning to reopen pre-game and post-game clubhouse access to credentialed media, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Notably, that course of action still remains subject to approval by the MLB Players Association.

MLB hasn’t afforded clubhouse access to credentialed media in either of the past two seasons on account of COVID-19 concerns. Clubhouse access was suspended in March 2020, with reporters generally limited to conducting interviews via phone or video chat that year. Fully-vaccinated members of the BBWAA were permitted to again meet with players and coaches on the field midway through the 2021 season, but they were not allowed entrance into the clubhouse. Tom Haudricourt tweets that clubhouse access in 2022 and beyond, if approved by the union, is likely to again encompass vaccination and masking requirements.

If the MLBPA signs off, the return of clubhouse access figures to be a welcome development for reporters. Expanding individual access to players and avoiding possible technological difficulties associated with speaking over video chat are among the potential benefits for reporters speaking with players and staff for stories. Shortly after MLB first suspended clubhouse access, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about the advantages he felt clubhouse access afforded reporters, which he opined has a trickle-down benefit for fans consuming their stories.

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Follow The NBA Trade Deadline At Hoops Rumors

By Rory Maher | February 8, 2022 at 4:45pm CDT

Tired of the MLB lockout?  The NBA trade deadline is less than 48 hours away, and our sister site Hoops Rumors (@HoopsRumors on Twitter) has all the latest news and rumors for each of the league’s 30 teams!

We’ve already seen two major trades today, with CJ McCollum reportedly heading to the Pelicans in a seven-player trade, and the Kings shocking the basketball world by sending rising star Tyrese Haliburton to the Pacers for two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis in a six-player swap.

Amid an eight-game losing streak, former MVP James Harden has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated with the Nets – will he be traded for disgruntled Sixers star Ben Simmons? Could a trade between the defending champion Bucks and the Celtics be brewing? Will the Pacers continue to reshape their roster by dealing the league’s leader in blocked shots per game, Myles Turner? Will the Lakers be able to make moves to assist aging superstar LeBron James?

For the latest updates on those stories and more, check out Hoops Rumors today! Last season saw a total of 24 in-season trades, including 16 on deadline day alone, and this season could be just as action-packed! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter – @HoopsRumors.

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Frontier League Announces Implementation Of “Sudden Death” Extra-Innings Rule

By Anthony Franco | January 26, 2022 at 8:08pm CDT

Earlier this week, the Frontier League announced an alteration to its extra-innings format. The 15-team Frontier League is an independent circuit designated as an official partner league of Major League Baseball.

Beginning next season, the Frontier League will implement a system to ensure that marathon games don’t go into effect. The first extra inning — the tenth in regular contests, the eighth on days with scheduled seven-inning doubleheaders — will proceed according to International Tiebreaker Rules. The ITB rule involves placing a runner on second base to start the inning, as MLB has done over the past two years. The Frontier League’s rule change comes if the game remains tied after that frame, as the 11th inning (or 9th in doubleheaders) will proceed in the “Sudden Death” format.

Before the start of the inning, the manager of the home team will decide whether to play offense or defense. The offensive team will begin the inning with a free runner — the previous batter in the lineup — on first base. Picking up wherever they’re scheduled to hit in the lineup, the offensive team has three outs to score the runner. If the runner scores, the offensive team wins. If they don’t score, the defensive team wins.

In recent seasons, MLB has asked its partner leagues to experiment with rules changes it could try in the future. That isn’t the case here, though, and there’s no indication MLB is considering implementing this rule down the road. According to the Frontier League, the idea was first proposed by one of its former managers and deliberated upon by various league skippers and administrators.

As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes, independent leagues face outsized challenges in managing pitcher workloads compared to those facing MLB teams. Independent teams have stricter roster limits and face the possibility of losing players to affiliated ball. Without a farm system to call upon in the event of a marathon game that taxes a pitching staff, independent leagues have tried creative ways to limit length of extra-inning contests.

Last season, the Frontier League and Pioneer League broke ties with a Home Run Derby swing-off. For the Frontier League, at least, that didn’t sit well with managers. “As fan friendly as that was, it just didn’t feel right. The whole thing was decided by how good your (batting practice) thrower is,” Evansville Otters manager Andy McCauley told Cooper. “You got eight pitches. If you didn’t have a guy throwing strikes, you were in trouble. … At least now, there is some baseball strategy still involved other than just eight swings of the bat.“

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Pro Hockey Rumors Seeking Part-Time Writers

By Tim Dierkes | January 20, 2022 at 10:17am CDT

We’re looking to add multiple part-time contributors to the Pro Hockey Rumors writing team. The positions pay on an hourly basis.

Applicants must meet all of the following criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NHL teams, with no discernible bias. We want you to be as comfortable writing about Janis Moser and Connor Dewar as you would be writing about Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews.
  • Knowledge of the salary cap, CBA, and transaction-related concepts.
  • Strong weeknight and weekend availability, with the ability to work at least two regular shifts per week. Flexibility to work on short notice and/or on weekdays is a plus.
  • Extensive writing experience, with professional experience and a background in journalism both preferred.
  • Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics, and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is strongly preferred.
  • Attention to detail and an ability to self-edit.
  • Ability to follow PHR’s style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs. We need someone who can balance creating quick copy with thoughtful analysis.
  • You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Ability to use Twitter, Tweetdeck, and other relevant platforms. In general, you must be able to multi-task.

If you’re interested, email prohockeyrumorshelp@gmail.com and include the following:

  • A few paragraphs to explain why you qualify and stand out.
  • A description of your availability going forward.
  • At least one or two writing samples. NHL-related pieces are preferred, but not mandatory.

We understand that many of those who read this have applied in the past. If you have previously submitted an application for PHR and are still interested, please submit it again. Many will apply, so unfortunately we cannot respond to every applicant.

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How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

By Tim Dierkes | January 12, 2022 at 12:22pm CDT

23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

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Our Lockout Lottery Is Now Closed

By Tim Dierkes | January 6, 2022 at 9:20pm CDT

UPDATE: The contest is now closed.  We’ll be rooting for the lockout to end as soon as possible.

You’re here on this website, waiting for some sort of news indicating the MLB lockout will soon end.  We’ve got nothing: no indication of recent talks or progress.  Transactions are frozen, so we’re left to do our best talking about what happened in November and what might happen post-lockout.

That means our free agent prediction contest is frozen too, with Scott Schum standing alone atop the leaderboard with a .433 batting average.  Scott has been able to pull off this Nap Lajoie-like feat by correctly predicting the destinations of Corey Seager, Marcus Stroman, and Starling Marte, among many others.

I thought it might be fun to make the best of a bad situation by creating a contest to predict the date on which the lockout officially ends.  Everyone who guesses correctly will receive a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office, or a one-year extension if you already have one.

By “officially ends,” I mean the date on which a press release from MLB goes out declaring the lockout over.  If there winds up being some subjectivity on the official date, the MLBTR staff will deliberate and decide.

If you’re interested in signing up for Trade Rumors Front Office right now, click here to learn more about the benefits.

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Fanatics To Acquire Topps Sports & Entertainment

By Sean Bavazzano | January 3, 2022 at 9:37pm CDT

In an increasingly-rare piece of transactional news, online retailer Fanatics has reached an agreement to acquire renowned trading card company Topps Sports & Entertainment, per Scott Soshnick and Eben Novy-Williams of Sportico. Topps Sports & Entertainment represents the trading card and digital collectible portion of the greater The Topps Co. enterprise. The deal is worth $500MM, according to Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton of the Wall Street Journal.

News of tonight’s reported deal comes in the wake of last year’s revelation that Major League Baseball and the MLBPA would not be renewing their longstanding agreement with Topps. Instead, both the league and players union pivoted and partnered with Fanatics on a long-term licensing deal, granting the online sports retailer with exclusive trading card licenses.

Though the Fanatics Trading Cards brand has yet to launch a single product, recent valuations for this portion of the Fanatics enterprise have skyrocketed. Thanks in part to renewed trading card interest by hobbyists during the past two years, a recent valuation of Fanatics Trading Cards now stands at $10.4 billion. Both the MLB and MLBA are equity holders in Fanatics’ new trading card venture, creating an ongoing revenue source for both parties.

In a piece by The Wall Street Journal, Jared Diamond and Andrew Beaton note that Fanatics’ original August deal with MLB wasn’t set to begin until after the 2025 season. Likewise, licensing deals with the NFL and NBA were also a few years from kicking in, slowing Fanatics’ push into the trading card space. Acquiring the Topps Sports & Entertainment division now, however, will allow Fanatics to accelerate its foray into this portion of the hobby market years ahead of schedule. In addition to immediate distribution rights of baseball cards, Fanatics also picks up Major League Soccer, UEFA, and Formula One licenses in the deal.

Implications of this acquisition will be far-reaching, though it most directly increases Fanatics hold on a growing industry. The Topps Company will now see business operations span only its candy and gift card divisions, barring further activity from the company’s ownership group. Sports leagues across the world are now primed to see increased revenue streams thanks to their newly cut licensing deals and equity stakes with Fanatics.

For baseball and its players union, this news looms against a still-stagnant lockout backdrop. The financial ramifications of this deal are unlikely to have any immediate impact on the state of the lockout, though it appears another party, Fanatics, now has its interests more wholly aligned with the 2022 baseball season being conducted as scheduled.

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Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | December 29, 2021 at 9:44am CDT

The MLB hot stove isn’t exactly isn’t exactly burning right now during the lockout, but that’ll change eventually.  While you wait, why not check out the free MLB Trade Rumors newsletter?  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.

 

This free newsletter comes out Monday through Friday in the morning.  Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email.  If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

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Five-Year Deals For Free Agent Starting Pitchers Rarely End Well

By Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2021 at 9:41pm CDT

Prior to the lockout this winter, three starting pitchers signed free agent deals for exactly five years:

  • Mariners signed Robbie Ray for five years, $115MM with an opt-out after third year
  • Blue Jays signed Kevin Gausman for five years, $110MM
  • Tigers signed Eduardo Rodriguez for five years, $77MM with an opt-out after second year

Free agent contracts of exactly this length are fairly rare.  We saw a pair of five-year starting pitcher deals in the 2019-20 offseason for Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner.  Before that, you have to go back to the 2015-16 offseason, when teams incredibly inked five of them.  Interestingly, Marcus Stroman signed a three-year deal prior to the lockout even though we predicted five

I think free agent starting pitchers signing five-year deals have some commonality: the combination of their ability and age resulted in enough market pressure for exactly that number of years, no more and no less.  I’d say it’s generally a pitcher who is considered good or very good, yet something short of an ace.  While it’s true that market conditions may result in a five-year deal for a pitcher in a certain offseason and not another, these guys still seem to fall within the same bracket.

Going back to Gil Meche’s December 2006 contract with the Royals, 11 different free agent pitchers have signed five-year deals that are now completed.  Spoiler alert: very few of these ended well.  Stat note: ERA- is a park and league-adjusted version of ERA, where 100 is average and lower is better.

Jordan Zimmermann: five-year, $110MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 97
  • ERA-: 127
  • fWAR: 5.0
  • bWAR: 0.9
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 1, when Zimmermann posted a 4.87 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Zimmermann made three September outings in the shortened 2020 season.  He’d go on to make two appearances with the Brewers this year before retiring.  By measure of bWAR, Zimmermann’s performance was the second-worst of this sample.

Jeff Samardzija: five-year, $90MM deal with Giants

  • Starts: 110
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 6.9
  • bWAR: 7.1
  • When Regret Set In: Samardzija was solid in three of the five years, including the fourth.  So regret never really set in here.
  • How It Ended: Samardzija made four starts in the shortened season.  He has not pitched since.

Mike Leake: five-year, $80MM deal with Cardinals

  • Starts: 124
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 5.8
  • When Regret Set In: Year 1, when Leake posted a 4.69 ERA.  In August of Year 2, Leake cleared waivers and was traded to the Mariners along with $17MM.
  • How It Ended: Leake opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, forgoing his salary.  He hasn’t pitched since September 24th, 2019.

Wei-Yin Chen: five-year, $80MM deal with Marlins

  • Starts: 53
  • ERA-: 129
  • fWAR: 2.1
  • bWAR: -0.6
  • When Regret Set In:  At some point in Year 1, in which Chen posted a 4.96 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Chen was released with a year remaining on his contract, with the Marlins eating $22MM in salary.  He signed a minor league deal with the Mariners but was released in June 2020.  Chen signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines and made four appearances in ’20.  He pitched for the Hanshin Tigers in 2021.  Chen’s Marlins contract was the worst of all of these five-year deals.

Ian Kennedy: five-year, $70MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 86
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 3.9
  • bWAR: 6.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Kennedy posted a 5.38 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Kennedy was moved to the bullpen in the fourth year of the deal, saving 30 games.  He struggled in 14 relief innings in 2020 to finish out the contract.

Anibal Sanchez: five-year, $80MM deal with Tigers

  • Starts: 118
  • ERA-: 109
  • fWAR: 12.0
  • bWAR: 7.0
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Sanchez posted a 4.99 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Sanchez played out the contract with the Tigers and posted a 6.41 ERA in 2017, the final season.

C.J. Wilson: five-year, $77.5MM deal with Angels

  • Starts: 119
  • ERA-: 102
  • fWAR: 7.5
  • bWAR: 5.7
  • When Regret Set In: Wilson had a 3.89 ERA as late as Year 4 of the contract, so you could argue that regret didn’t set in until he had season-ending shoulder surgery in August of that year.
  • How It Ended: No one realized it at the time, but Wilson’s career was over after that August 2015 surgery and he’d be injured for all of Year 5.

Cliff Lee: five-year, $120MM deal with Phillies

  • Starts: 106
  • ERA-: 76
  • fWAR: 19.6
  • bWAR: 20.2
  • When Regret Set In/How It Ended: One of these things is not like the others, as Lee was an ace when he signed to remain with the Phillies.  Lee made his last start for the Phillies, and of his career, on July 31st of 2014 – three and a half years into the contract.  He left that trade deadline start with an elbow injury and never pitched again, yet he was so good in those three and a half years that it’s fair to say the Phillies never regretted the contract.

John Lackey: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Red Sox

  • Starts: 121
  • ERA-: 106
  • fWAR: 9.2
  • bWAR: 3.6
  • When Regret Set In: Quite soon, with Lackey posting a 4.40 ERA in Year 1 and a 6.41 mark in Year 2.  At that point, Lackey underwent Tommy John surgery.
  • How It Ended: Lackey’s time with the Red Sox ended with a bit of a resurgence, as he posted a 3.60 ERA in 21 Year 5 starts before being traded at the deadline to the Cardinals for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  What’s more, the Red Sox included a clause in Lackey’s contract that triggered a league-minimum sixth-year option upon the Tommy John procedure.  This turned into a six-year deal in which the Cardinals received a stellar 2015 campaign from Lackey for just $500K.

A.J. Burnett: five-year, $82.5MM deal with Yankees

  • Starts: 159
  • ERA-: 103
  • fWAR: 12.2
  • bWAR: 8.3
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 2, when Burnett posted a 5.26 ERA.
  • How It Ended: After three seasons of Burnett, the Yankees shipped him to the Pirates and kicked in $20MM of the $33MM still owed to him.  Burnett flourished with the change of scenery.

Gil Meche: five-year, $55MM deal with Royals

  • Starts: 100
  • ERA-: 96
  • fWAR: 8.6
  • bWAR: 10.2
  • When Regret Set In: In Year 3, when Meche posted a 5.09 ERA.
  • How It Ended: Meche underwent shoulder surgery in July of Year 4, and the Royals planned to use him in relief in the final season of the contract.  Instead, Meche felt that he didn’t deserve the $12MM he still had coming.  He retired, letting the Royals off the hook for all of the money.

Conclusion

It’s not fair to take this 11-pitcher sample and say that the deals for Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez won’t work out.  Teams are evaluating pitchers better, and the Chen contract doesn’t have anything to do with how Ray will hold up.  Perhaps we can set the bar for a successful five-year starting pitcher contract at 10 total WAR: 3 in Year 1, 2.5 in Year 2, 2.0 in Year 3, 1.5 in Year 4, and 1.0 in Year 5.  By fWAR, Lee, Burnett, and Sanchez were able to accomplish that.  By bWAR, only Lee and Meche got there.  Over the life of their contracts, only those two produced an ERA better than league average.

How many of these 11 contracts ended with a useful pitcher still working for the signing team at the end of Year 5?  Zero.  However, five-year deals are given out because of market pressure, not because the team expects five strong years out of the pitcher.  Lee produced 17.7 WAR in the first three years of his deal, so the rest didn’t matter.  Meche, Wilson, Samardzija, and Sanchez started off their contracts with a pair of strong seasons.  Zack Wheeler isn’t in this sample but he’s well on his way to 10+ WAR for the Phillies despite a shortened 2020 season.  Madison Bumgarner, however, seems like a long shot.

What do the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Tigers really expect out of Ray, Gausman, and Rodriguez?  If they looked at these comparables, they’re likely expecting two strong years and hopefully a third.  If Ray or Rodriguez sees fit to opt out, the clubs will likely have gotten the best of them and could duck a few decline years.

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