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Current estimates on the 2017 qualifying offer have it priced at $16.7MM, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would represent a year-over-year rise of $900K.

That’s a rather standard increase for the qualifying offer, which is determined by averaging the league’s 125 contracts with the highest mean salaries. It sat at $15.8MM for the current year, after rising from $15.3MM in 2015, $14.1MM in 2014, and $13.3MM in the inaugural year of 2013.

Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.

The real question with the qualifying offer, though isn’t so much its specific price tag as it is the underlying rules. With a new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated at present, many have suggested that it’s one of the most important issues that is — or, at least, could be — on the table for change. Even if something gets done, though, it presumably wouldn’t go into effect for the coming offseason.

It’s not yet clear whether there’s any realistic possibility of modifications to a system that has had a notable dampening effect on the market experiences of numerous mid-level free agents in recent years. Players entering the market after declining the one-year qualifying offer come with the added cost of draft compensation. That has arguably forced certain good but not great players — those who have the toughest decisions to decline the QO — to shoulder an out-of-proportion piece of the dampening effect that the system imposes on player salaries.

Notably, this last offseason was the first in which any player accepted a qualifying offer — thus taking a one-year deal (admittedly, at a nice price) rather than rolling the dice on a stalled market situation. Matt Wieters of the Orioles, Brett Anderson of the Dodgers, and Colby Rasmus of the Astros all took the deal. The fact that some players have now elected to take the big one-year payday and re-enter the market could conceivably make teams think twice about slapping the offer on marginal candidates.

For those who aren’t familiar with the qualifying offer system, you can check out this old-but-good overview and read up on why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.

This is a sponsored post from Corey Dawkins of Baseball Injury Consultants.

“Clayton Kershaw had a 4.3% chance of getting injured last night when he pitched, but only a 0.7% chance of being hurt if he took the mound today instead.”

This fictitious example highlights one goal of my company, Baseball Injury Consultants, in the medical management of professional baseball players. We are trying to take the seasonal risk assessment to a daily, and then a pitch by pitch, basis among other things. We have seen pre-season risk assessments for years, but how useful is that information other than at the start of the season? Once the season begins, it doesn’t factor in any new information that comes in during that year. What if the Red Sox had a hard number to assess the risk of keeping Blake Swihart in left field on the day the wind was coming in from right field, pushing the ball closer to the cement wall on which he sprained his ankle?

We have moonshot goals because, despite great strides in the treatment of baseball injuries, the number of professional baseball injuries is only getting worse. It is not for a lack of trying or lack of talent. It just has not been put together yet. However, it is not impossible. Something has to be done because reducing injuries will, of course, make a difference in their athletic careers, but also improve the quality of life 20 years later.

We start by collecting daily injury and performance data on all professional baseball players, giving the capability to provide customized reports and for any sector, industry, company, team, individual researcher or fan. This can include baseball operations, daily fantasy baseball players, season-long fantasy baseball players, medical researchers, biomedical device manufacturers, or insurance entities to name a few.

We track as much information as we can find, from injury details to weather information to performance data, knowing that any piece of information might be the one that solves the puzzle.
Since someone checks the information before importing into the databases every morning, we fill the information void left over from automated scripts scraping news or transaction sites that don’t categorize injuries according to accepted medical terminology and/or don’t update the original listing.  For example, here’s a graph of MLB Tommy John surgeries by year.

So once we get validated information into the database and onto our website, you can find the information in ways you will not find anywhere else.  If you are a casual fan or want a snapshot of MLB, you can check out our “Quick Look” page for summary information and the records I have updated within the last seven days. In the three bar/column graphs, you can hover over individual sections to find greater detail about that particular item.

You can search and find summary team data on the “Teams” page.

You can also find search for players by name, browse by last name or find players by position on the “Players” main page.

Then once we find the player we want, we can go to the individual page for details at a level you will not find anywhere else. Similar to the “Quick Look” page, you can hover over the columns to find the exact categories and measured levels.

On the “Custom Search” page, you can find information in countless combinations.

We’re not stopping with just putting the information on the website. We have plans to create and put a model on the website that estimates how productive a player will be for daily fantasy leagues, based on an injury two or three days ago, such as a bruised hand. The website will also have an educational section for evidence-based injury analysis.

However, our biggest moonshot goal is to create individualized risk assessment models, drilling down information to the pitch by pitch level. This would give on-field managers and baseball operations something they never had before. What if they knew that a bruised bottom hand for a hitter affects his power by a certain percentage? What if the risk of throwing a slider on pitch number 103 more than quadrupled the risk not just immediately, but three weeks down the line as well?

These are the goals we are shooting for and hope to raise enough capital to do so soon. We look forward to you creating an account on Baseball Injury Consultants and checking out what we have to offer as well as improving the site.

On this week’s show, Steve Adams joins host Jeff Todd to discuss whether the Tim Lincecum hype makes sense and what alternatives there might be for teams looking for rotation help. After touching upon what the Phillies’ impressive pitching could mean for that organization’s near future, Steve and Jeff delve into the increasing array of financial mechanisms (in particular, the Fantex model) that players may be able to use to lock in guaranteed cash while retaining future earning upside.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

On the heels of several recent PED suspensions, several additional players are expected to receive 80-game bans as a result of positive tests, according to a report form ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn. Player identities are not known, but Quinn notes on Twitter that no major names are believed to be involved.

Interestingly, he notes, several of the recently busted players were caught with the steroid turinabol. That substance is known more for its role in pumping up eastern bloc Olympic athletes in the seventies than for cutting-edge performance enhancement.

It’s not entirely clear why that’s occurred, but Quinn notes that advances in testing have almost certainly played a role. While it used to be that turinabol could only be detected within about one week of its use, traces can now be found in a much larger window. With several players caught during Spring Training, when testing would be anticipated, it could simply be that drug handlers were not caught unprepared.

Beyond that link, though, Quinn says the recent run of suspensions — which has included, most notably, Dee Gordon and Chris Colabello — doesn’t appear to revolve around any single nexus, as occurred in the Biogenesis case.

Looking forward, Quinn says that the unnamed players who triggered positive tests have been informed of their pending suspensions and are in various phases of the “administrative process.” While it’s unclear how many of those names currently appear on big league rosters, any 40-man members would have the chance to initiate a grievance to challenge any suspension, potentially adding more delay before any bans are officially applied and announced.

On this week’s show, Chuck Wasserstrom joins the show to share some of his experiences as a veteran of the Cubs’ front office and how it has shaped his writing for MLBTR and other outlets.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast has been going strong for over a year now.  You can check out our Soundcloud page to listen to past episodes.  Unfortunately, our podcast producer has to step down, which means we are in the market for a replacement.

We are seeking a new producer to put together each week’s episode and ensure the best possible sound quality.  If you’re interested and have relevant experience, please email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications and technical setup/process.  Please also include links to sample shows that you have produced, and don’t hesitate to let us know if you have any ideas about how to improve the current show.

On this week’s show, Ben Badler of Baseball America joins host Jeff Todd to share his prospect expertise. Among the players considered are Trevor Story of the Rockies and Nomar Mazara of the Rangers. Badler also discusses some of the most intriguing names to watch on the international market — with a particular focus on near-to-the-majors players from Cuba and Japan.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.