Trade Market For Relievers
Pitching is the priority for most contenders. Starting pitchers, however, are costly and there aren’t many good ones available right now unless a team has and is willing to trade away an elite prospect or possibly even two.
The alternative is to trade for a reliable reliever or two, which could help a team who isn’t getting enough quality innings out of their starting pitchers. As the Royals have proven, you don’t need six or seven innings from your starting pitchers to succeed as long as your bullpen can pick up the slack. Three dominant relievers to cover the 7th, 8th and 9th innings helped in their case, but they also had several others who made a strong contribution to the team’s success.
This is the time for a contender to assess how much help their bullpen needs and ensure that they’re stocked up for the stretch run. Here are some relievers who are likely available on the trade market.
Premium Relief Arms
Andrew Miller (Yankees), Wade Davis (Royals), Mark Melancon (Pirates), David Robertson (White Sox), Alex Colome (Rays), Arodys Vizcaino (Braves), Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith (Brewers)
- Miller and Davis represent the top of the class, but much like the many controllable starters we’ve heard so much about, it’s not clear that either is available for anything less than a true haul. The Yankees already dealt away Aroldis Chapman, and have seemingly put an immense price tag on Miller, who is now unquestionably one of the very best relievers in baseball. The same can be said of Davis, though he hasn’t been quite as excellent this year as last and has one less season of control on his contract, which runs out after 2017.
- There were rumblings before the year that the Bucs could look to swap out Melancon and his $9.65MM salary. The cash probably isn’t a major concern at this point, but the Pirates are in a somewhat difficult position for contention and have reportedly considered a deal for a pending free agent. Melancon is still trucking along with a 1.51 ERA and 8.2 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9, all within range of the new standard he set for himself beginning in 2013. Since Pittsburgh is still a plausible post-season threat, it seems that the team would be looking for a somewhat unique scenario — the ask is for a solid set-up arm to plug onto the MLB roster as well as a prospect haul to make up the difference in value and bolster the organization’s future.
- Robertson is having a fine season and is surely a late-inning upgrade for some contenders. But he’s still due close to $30MM through the 2018 season and he’s just not the same pitcher he was when he signed his current deal with the White Sox. If the Sox were willing to take on some of Robertson’s remaining salary, however, they could well generate a solid return — especially if the names just listed prove too expensive to change hands.
- If the Rays are willing to trade away one of their controllable starting pitchers, as the rumors indicate, then they’d certainly trade All-Star closer Colome. Even with four years left of club control remaining after 2016, Colome won’t have as much value to the Rays until they’re ready to contend again. Still, the price will be high for the 27-year-old and the Rays won’t be motivated to move him unless they’re blown away with an offer.
- Jeffress and Vizcaino are in the same boat as Colome with their respective teams. Young, controllable and talented closers with teams that aren’t competitive now and might not be for at least a couple more years. The price is high, but these guys are definitely available. The question with Jeffress is whether another team will value his groundball-driven approach as highly as do the Brewers. As for Vizcaino, some recent stumbles and a DL stint have significantly reduced the likelihood he’s dealt.
- That leaves Smith, who missed a big chunk of time earlier this year and has been more solid than great since returning. The 27-year-old southpaw owns a 3.60 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over twenty innings, representing a drop-off from the 3.79 K/BB ratio he ran up a season ago. With three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility, Milwaukee may choose to see if he can build up value over the next several months before exploring a deal in earnest.
Click to read below for the rental relievers and other pen arms with future control:
2017 Qualifying Offer Estimated At $16.7MM
Current estimates on the 2017 qualifying offer have it priced at $16.7MM, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would represent a year-over-year rise of $900K.
That’s a rather standard increase for the qualifying offer, which is determined by averaging the league’s 125 contracts with the highest mean salaries. It sat at $15.8MM for the current year, after rising from $15.3MM in 2015, $14.1MM in 2014, and $13.3MM in the inaugural year of 2013.
Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.
The real question with the qualifying offer, though isn’t so much its specific price tag as it is the underlying rules. With a new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated at present, many have suggested that it’s one of the most important issues that is — or, at least, could be — on the table for change. Even if something gets done, though, it presumably wouldn’t go into effect for the coming offseason.
It’s not yet clear whether there’s any realistic possibility of modifications to a system that has had a notable dampening effect on the market experiences of numerous mid-level free agents in recent years. Players entering the market after declining the one-year qualifying offer come with the added cost of draft compensation. That has arguably forced certain good but not great players — those who have the toughest decisions to decline the QO — to shoulder an out-of-proportion piece of the dampening effect that the system imposes on player salaries.
Notably, this last offseason was the first in which any player accepted a qualifying offer — thus taking a one-year deal (admittedly, at a nice price) rather than rolling the dice on a stalled market situation. Matt Wieters of the Orioles, Brett Anderson of the Dodgers, and Colby Rasmus of the Astros all took the deal. The fact that some players have now elected to take the big one-year payday and re-enter the market could conceivably make teams think twice about slapping the offer on marginal candidates.
For those who aren’t familiar with the qualifying offer system, you can check out this old-but-good overview and read up on why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.
Playoff Contender Needs (National League)
Yesterday, I analyzed the most pressing needs for the 11 American League playoff contenders just in time for the Red Sox to fill their starting rotation void with the acquisition of Drew Pomeranz. If we’re lucky, one of these eight National League contenders will follow suit and give us another early Trade Deadline present this weekend.
NL EAST
Washington Nationals
54-36, 1st Place, +6
CENTER FIELDER/LEADOFF MAN
Ben Revere has a .268 on-base percentage and still has the privilege of being the starting center fielder and leadoff man for a 1st place team that is 18 games over .500. What does that tell us? For starters, Nationals manager Dusty Baker apparently doesn’t care if his leadoff man gets on base or not. It also means that the Nationals’ lineup and most of the 25-man roster is filled with talent, which is why Baker probably doesn’t lose much sleep over his leadoff man’s inability to be good at the most important aspect of his job.
In all seriousness, the Nats are well aware that they are in need of an upgrade, which is why Trea Turner, who is blocked by Danny Espinosa at the shortstop position, was playing center field in Triple-A before he was recently called up to replace an injured Ryan Zimmerman on the roster. While he could be given a shot as the Nats’ regular center fielder at some point, general manager Mike Rizzo is likely to first explore the trade market, where Charlie Blackmon, Peter Bourjos, Coco Crisp, Jon Jay (likely to return from the disabled list sometime in August) and Melvin Upton Jr. are all likely available. And all are having much better seasons than Revere or his platoon partner, Michael Taylor.
Miami Marlins
47-41, Wild Card (2nd-T), +1
STARTING PITCHING
Mention the Marlins to a baseball fan and the first thing that comes to their mind is the amazing power of Giancarlo Stanton. It really is quite breathtaking, after all. But the most interesting part of this up-and-coming young team is that they have five regulars not named Stanton hitting over .300. Even 42-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, who has played on a semi-regular basis, is hitting .335 and having his best season since he was in his mid-30’s. The bullpen, which now includes Fernando Rodney setting up for All-Star closer A.J. Ramos, is also talented and a lot of fun to watch.
Unfortunately, unless Jose Fernandez can pitch more than once every five days, the Marlins’ rotation isn’t good enough to make a legitimate run for a Wild Card spot. The fact that they’ve pushed Fernandez back a few times to limit his workload makes the rotation that much more of a priority. Wei-Yin Chen, who signed a potential $80MM free agent deal in the offseason, can’t seem to string together more than one good start. If not for Adam Conley, there’s no way the Marlins would be in the mix for a playoff spot.
Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi are on their radar, as was the recently-traded Drew Pomeranz, but it’s likely that they’ll cast a wide net in hopes that they can acquire some help despite a farm system that is currently light on talent.
New York Mets
47-41, Wild Card (2nd-T), +1
STARTING PITCHING
David Wright could miss the season with a herniated disc in his neck. Lucas Duda is out for an extended period with a stress fracture in his back. Michael Conforto was sent to the minors because he stopped hitting. So can you believe that the Mets’ top priority might be starting pitching?
While they are reportedly prioritizing their bullpen at the moment, they will need to address their very fragile rotation at some point. Matt Harvey‘s season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Zack Wheeler‘s delayed return from Tommy John surgery—he’s not expected back before late August—and bone spurs in the elbows of young stars Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz should have the Mets looking to land at least one reinforcement and possibly two.
***Click below to read breakdowns of all the other NL contenders***
Check Out BaseballIC.com
This is a sponsored post from Corey Dawkins of Baseball Injury Consultants.
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The 5 Most Important Roster Decisions Of The Week
1. Mets SP Matt Harvey Placed On 15-Day DL
If there was any consolation for the Mets with young rotation stars Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard having to pitch with bone spurs in their elbows and Zack Wheeler‘s 2016 status being up in the air after his latest setback, it was that Matt Harvey had gotten past his early season struggles.
With six strong starts in a row (2.27 ERA, 35.2 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 28 K), the 27-year-old was heading into his 4th of July start against Miami on a roll. But not only did Harvey’s hot streak end then, his season would also unknowingly come to an end.
The Marlins lit Harvey up for five earned runs and 11 hits in 3.2 innings. Two days later, he was placed on the 15-Day disabled list with shoulder discomfort. Today, it was announced that he’ll undergo season-ending Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery.
At least in the short term, it will be Logan Verrett (5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP, 14 BB, 16 K in five starts) taking Harvey’s rotation spot. Sean Gilmartin (4.48 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 in 13 Triple-A starts) could also on a very short list for a start or two after the All-Star break. Unlike previous seasons, there isn’t a top prospect ready to step in. Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon will be relied upon heavily down the stretch, as will Wheeler, if and when he returns.
2. Cardinals 2B Matt Carpenter Placed On 15-Day DL
Even with Matt Carpenter having an MVP-caliber season, the Cardinals were having a hard time staying anywhere near striking distance of the division-leading Cubs. With their best hitter now sidelined—Carpenter was placed on the 15-Day disabled list with a strained oblique on Thursday—they’re in danger of losing ground in a very competitive Wild Card race.
The semi-good news is that Kolten Wong, who has stepped back into the starting second base job, has been better since being recalled from Triple-A with a .277/.358/.340 slash line. Randal Grichuk, who appears slated for regular action in center field with Wong back to the infield, is 5-for-8 with a homer since his return. He was demoted in mid-June after a terrible start.
They Cardinals will need those two young hitters, as well as the rest of the lineup to step up. With Brandon Moss also on the disabled list with a sprained ankle, Matt Adams‘ left-handed bat has become that much more important. And he’s currently in a 3-for-39 slump, which is the exact opposite of “stepping up.”
3. Royals Closer Wade Davis Placed On 15-Day DL
The Royals won the 2015 World Series with a mediocre starting rotation—Edinson Volquez (3.55 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.0 K/9) was probably their ace—and a superstar-less lineup—Kendrys Morales led the team with an .847 OPS. What they did have, though, was an elite bullpen with a closer, Wade Davis, who was pretty much un-hittable (4.4 H/9).
Fast-forward to 2016. The starting rotation isn’t any better. The lineup was just decent before losing Mike Moustakas for the season. And now the strength of their team, the bullpen, will be without Davis, who was placed on the 15-Day disabled list on Tuesday with a strained forearm. There’s an optimistic tone coming out of Kansas City, but forearm troubles are always of at least some substantial concern.
While bullpen depth isn’t an issue in Kansas City, closer candidates Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria –the Royals haven’t named either as the clear 9th inning option—each gave up runs in non-save situations since Davis went down. That can’t be a good sign for a team that currently has no clear team strength. They have plenty of post-season experience, but getting there will be a challenge.
4. Mets INF Jose Reyes Has Contract Purchased From Minors
When Jose Reyes last played for the Mets, he was a superstar shortstop headed for a huge payday in free agency. Four-and-a-half seasons later, the 33-year-old has been traded twice (Miami-to-Toronto; Toronto-to-Colorado) and was recently released by the Rockies after serving a 51-game suspension for domestic violence. Now, he’s hoping to rebuild his career and image.
After signing with the Mets on a Minor League contract on June 25th, Reyes joined the big league club in his familiar leadoff role. This time around, though, he’s the starting third baseman with David Wright out indefinitely due to a herniated disc in his neck.
Bringing back Reyes, who has a pair of doubles and a homer in his first three games, is a relatively risk-free move (public relations aside). Since the chances of their starting rotation carrying them in 2016 have decreased greatly over the past few weeks, the Mets really need a spark out of their lineup. A rejuvenated Reyes at the top could do the trick.
5. A’s SP Rich Hill Activated from 15-Day DL
In last week’s “Top 20 Trade Candidates”, Jeff Todd ranked Rich Hill No. 11 and wrote that he wouldn’t make it into top-five status again until he proved that he was back to pre-injury form. Well, he’s made it back and it didn’t take him long: Hill checks in at 3rd on the updated list. If he didn’t re-establish his value after his first start back on July 2nd when he logged a quality start against the Pirates (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K), he certainly did so with his dominating performance against the Astros on Thursday (7 IP, ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K.)
Anything can happen in the coming weeks as Hill can still make 2-3 starts before being dealt. But, barring another injury, his value isn’t likely to decrease at all. The 36-year-old lefty has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in baseball since the Red Sox gave him a shot last September. In 17 starts, he has a 2.06 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.8 K/9 and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. That kind of production is going to cost a contending team some real prospect value.
MLBTR Podcast: Lincecum, Rotations, Fantex
On this week’s show, Steve Adams joins host Jeff Todd to discuss whether the Tim Lincecum hype makes sense and what alternatives there might be for teams looking for rotation help. After touching upon what the Phillies’ impressive pitching could mean for that organization’s near future, Steve and Jeff delve into the increasing array of financial mechanisms (in particular, the Fantex model) that players may be able to use to lock in guaranteed cash while retaining future earning upside.
Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.
Additional PED Suspensions Expected
On the heels of several recent PED suspensions, several additional players are expected to receive 80-game bans as a result of positive tests, according to a report form ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn. Player identities are not known, but Quinn notes on Twitter that no major names are believed to be involved.
Interestingly, he notes, several of the recently busted players were caught with the steroid turinabol. That substance is known more for its role in pumping up eastern bloc Olympic athletes in the seventies than for cutting-edge performance enhancement.
It’s not entirely clear why that’s occurred, but Quinn notes that advances in testing have almost certainly played a role. While it used to be that turinabol could only be detected within about one week of its use, traces can now be found in a much larger window. With several players caught during Spring Training, when testing would be anticipated, it could simply be that drug handlers were not caught unprepared.
Beyond that link, though, Quinn says the recent run of suspensions — which has included, most notably, Dee Gordon and Chris Colabello — doesn’t appear to revolve around any single nexus, as occurred in the Biogenesis case.
Looking forward, Quinn says that the unnamed players who triggered positive tests have been informed of their pending suspensions and are in various phases of the “administrative process.” While it’s unclear how many of those names currently appear on big league rosters, any 40-man members would have the chance to initiate a grievance to challenge any suspension, potentially adding more delay before any bans are officially applied and announced.
MLBTR Podcast With Guest Chuck Wasserstrom
On this week’s show, Chuck Wasserstrom joins the show to share some of his experiences as a veteran of the Cubs’ front office and how it has shaped his writing for MLBTR and other outlets.
Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.
The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.
Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep) Interview: Draft Prospect Q&A
MLBTR continues its Draft Prospect Q&A series in order to give our readers a look at some of the top names on the board in this year’s draft. MLBTR will be chatting with some of the draft’s most well-regarded prospects as they prepare for the 2016 draft on June 9-11; we’ve already spoken with Mercer’s Kyle Lewis, Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen and Louisville’s Corey Ray.
It’s wait-and-see time for Blake Rutherford. The left-handed-hitting centerfielder has been at the top of the prospect ranking charts all year – and figures to be among the first high school players selected in the June draft.
Rutherford, who attends Chaminade College Preparatory School in West Hills, CA, has been known in scout circles for years. In fact, he committed to UCLA as a freshman and played on the international stage last summer – earning a Gold Medal as a member of USA Baseball’s 18U world championship-winning team in Japan.
The 6’2 ½”, 195-pound Rutherford was recently called “the most advanced pure bat in the class, college or high school” by ESPN.com’s Keith Law – who ranks him as the draft’s No. 4 prospect. Rutherford began the spring as Baseball America’s No. 3 prospect, while MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has him coming in at No. 6. Rutherford took some time out to talk with MLBTR:
Chuck Wasserstrom: Your brother, Cole is a first baseman at Cornell University. What have you been learning about college from your brother?
Blake Rutherford: “He’s told me that college is a great experience. Obviously, it’s hard sometimes to juggle both school and baseball, and he’s at a real prestigious school in Cornell. But he’s having a great time … he loves it. He just said it’s a really good experience for him, and he’s happy that he went across the country to go play baseball so that he could get a whole other perspective on life.”
How much of that is going to play in your decision as to whether you’re going to go to UCLA?
“It probably won’t. I’m going to have to make my own decision as to what’s best for me. He made the decision what’s best for him. He got into a good school like Cornell to play baseball. UCLA is another amazing school where you can get a great education. But I’m going to have to wait and see what happens with the draft. I’ll talk to him about it. We’ll talk about everything. When it comes down to it, I’m going to sit down with my family and make a decision that’s best for me – like he did when he made the decision to go to Cornell.”
I want you to describe your game for me. I don’t want a scouting report that I can read online. I want to hear you tell me about your game. So, Blake, how would you describe Blake?
“I would describe my game as someone who can do all things on a baseball field. I truly believe I’m a five-tool player who has a very overall strong game. I feel like the main thing people have always talked about is my hitting, but I really feel like my fielding, my running and my throwing have all taken a huge step this year. I’m also someone who’s super competitive, and I’m not going to stop until I get what I want – which is winning. I’m just someone who’s passionate and loves to play the game, but stays calm and cool during all situations.”
For most readers not in California, you’re a name. What do you do on the field that makes you unique, or at least makes you stand out?
“The thing that makes me stand out is I can try to change the game with my bat, on the base paths or in the field. I can make a diving catch that can save runs or save a game. I can steal bases consecutively; I’ve stolen home a couple times. I have the ability to hit a home run, hit a ball in the gap or get the base hit to get a rally started.”
Your high school was selected to the play in the National High School Invitational last month in North Carolina – where you went 9-for-14 facing some of the elite high school pitchers in this country. What was that experience like?
“That experience was unbelievable. USA Baseball did an amazing job putting us up and getting us around and getting the fields ready. But the competition out there was crazy. Every team had a couple guys on the mound that could deal. A lot of teams had hitters 1-through-9 that could absolutely mash. We knew going into it that we were going to have to play our best games. We did for three games, but in the fourth game we kind of ran out of energy and a couple things went the other way. I was really happy with how we did as a team. My performance individually … I was pretty happy with it because it helped my team win a couple of those games.
Baseball-wise, you’ve played on some pretty big stages already and done some pretty neat things like playing overseas. What stands out for you?
“This last summer, going to Japan (with the 18U USA Baseball national team) – I think that really stands out. We faced some adversity. We lost a couple exhibition games. We lost an earlier game to Japan. So we were kind of down a little bit. Then we came together as a team and bonded. We really got super close and we were able to pull it off. We came from behind in three or four of those games. And then to be able to defeat Japan in their big stadium in front of all their fans for the Gold Medal – that’s something I’ll probably never forget.”
To get there, you needed a 9th-inning rally against South Korea in the tournament opener – and you hit a clutch go-ahead three-run homer.
“We started the inning with a Will Benson walk. And then Hagen Danner had a pinch-hit double to set it up. Second-and-third, no outs … I knew somehow I had to get one run in. Their pitcher had thrown me all fastballs. I fouled a couple off. It got to 3-and-2, and I just got the barrel to the ball and it took off. At first, I didn’t know if it was gone; it’s kind of hard to hit the ball out of the park there. I never saw it go over. I just heard the crowd go crazy. And I saw the runners stop running – so I knew it must have gone out. I remember that I felt happy because we were now winning, but I wasn’t out of control or too excited because I knew South Korea still had to come up to hit – and they had a couple good hitters. Luckily, we were able to get a couple more insurance runs.”
You won the Gold Medal there, and as a result – your team was honored prior to Game Four of the World Series last fall (at Citi Field in New York). How amazing was that?
“That was so exciting. Not only were we at the World Series, but it was the first time the USA players had gotten together (since Japan). So we were just hanging out and loving every second of it. But just going on the field and meeting a lot of the guys and seeing the atmosphere of the World Series. It made all of us want to make it that much more.”
Growing up in Southern California, what are your favorite things to do?
“Obviously, going to the beach … Hanging out with my friends … Anything competitive. We might go hit on the local baseball field or go laser tagging. Me and my brother always grew up super competitive. We have a lot of friends who are competitive. So we ended up playing baseball or football. There was always some activity going on outside.”
Read on for more after the break …
Seeking Producer For MLB Trade Rumors Podcast
The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast has been going strong for over a year now. You can check out our Soundcloud page to listen to past episodes. Unfortunately, our podcast producer has to step down, which means we are in the market for a replacement.
We are seeking a new producer to put together each week’s episode and ensure the best possible sound quality. If you’re interested and have relevant experience, please email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications and technical setup/process. Please also include links to sample shows that you have produced, and don’t hesitate to let us know if you have any ideas about how to improve the current show.