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Quick Hits: Realmuto, Nats, Taylor, Rangers, Young, Beltre

By Connor Byrne | September 22, 2018 at 10:23pm CDT

Sunday’s game could be the final home contest of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto’s tenure with the team, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald observes. Spencer’s the latest to note that the Fish will likely trade Realmuto in the offseason if they’re unable to extend him, as they’re rebuilding and he’s only under control through 2020. Asked about the potential of Sunday being his last Marlins home game, the 27-year-old Realmuto said: “You never know what’s going to happen, so I don’t try to think too much about that. We’ll see if that ends up being the case.” Thanks to both the state of the Miami franchise and Realmuto’s standing as an elite catcher, he has frequented trade rumors dating back to last season. Barring an extension, Realmuto will once again be popular on MLBTR’s pages during the winter, especially considering he has been the majors’ best catcher and the Marlins’ main bright spot this year. Not only has Realmuto slashed a stellar .284/.348/.498 with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances, but he has also offered tremendous defense.

More on a couple other MLB teams:

  • As part of an outfield that features Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton, Michael A. Taylor has seen his playing time diminish, Elliott Smith of MLB.com points out. Taylor has only started four times since Aug. 24 and taken a mere seven PAs this month, per Smith. One reason Taylor has been on the bench lately is his lack of production, as the 27-year-old has followed up a strong 2017 by hitting a meager .224/.286/.355 with six home runs in 376 PAs. But Taylor’s “working with [hitting coach] Kevin [Long] to change his swing a little bit and hopefully he comes into Spring Training with a different swing — putting the ball in play a little bit more,” according to manager Dave Martinez. Putting the ball in play has been a struggle for Taylor, who has logged unappealing strikeout and contact rates of 29.8 percent and 71.1 percent, respectively. Taylor’s an asset on the bases and in the field, though, and he also comes with two more years of arbitration control. He could be an offseason trade chip for the Nationals, then, Smith writes. Taylor has considered the possibility, saying: “It’s hard this late in the season not to think about it, and with the way things have been going lately, it looks like other people are thinking about it.” Regardless, Taylor’s focused on “continuing to work and get better every day.” His situation will be an interesting one to monitor over the winter, given that the Nationals will have at least three other high-profile outfield options (Soto, Eaton and Victor Robles) even if they don’t re-sign Harper.
  • With the Rangers searching for a new manager, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram goes through potential replacements for the fired Jeff Banister. One thing’s clear, Wilson writes: Rangers great Michael Young won’t get the job, even though he’d be president/general manager Jon Daniels’ “dream hire.” The soon-to-be 42-year-old Young is content in his current role as a special assistant to Daniels, Wilson suggests.
  • Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre reacted to Banister’s ouster Friday, saying (via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com) the dugout shakeup won’t play a role in whether he’ll continue his career in 2019. And Beltre, a pending free agent who will turn 40 next April, seems prepared to go through another lean year with Texas. The Rangers’ non-contender status isn’t “ideal,” Beltre admitted, but he noted: “I’m here for whatever they want me to do, that’s the bottom line. I think I’m old enough to understand everything that’s going on, and I’m old enough to understand that over the last couple of years, the clubhouse is getting younger and younger, and there’s been a different situation where – yes, we’re probably not going to be competing with the Astros and those guys, we’re going to be developing players.” Beltre’s words jibe with his actions from this past summer’s trade deadline, when he elected against pushing for a trade to a better team. Assuming he re-signs with the Rangers in 2019, the future Hall of Famer will play his ninth season with the club.
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Quick Hits: Harper, Donaldson, Wong

By Kyle Downing | September 22, 2018 at 1:32pm CDT

In a piece for the Sports Info Solutions blog, Mark Simon digs deep to try and find an explanation for Bryce Harper’s poor defensive ratings; he’s cost the Nationals 25 runs with his performance in the field, per Defensive Runs Saved. Simon notes that Harper ranks second-worst among all MLB position players in that metric, having played well below average both in right and center field. Simon objectively examines the categories in which the All-Star slugger has performed below his historical norms, such as range rating, deterrent value from his throwing arm, and the routes he’s taken to fly balls. Of course, defensive statistics are widely thought of as more subjective than most offensive stats, so it remains to be seen just how much any of these numbers will actually impact Harper’s value on the free agent market this offseason. As Simon notes, he’s certainly quelled mid-season concerns about his offensive capabilities by tattooing baseballs to the tune of a 1.004 OPS since the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how Harper’s suitors factor his defensive performance into their offers over the course of the winter.

And now a pair of notes related to infielders…

  • Jordan Bastian of MLB.com provides the highlights from a recent press Q&A with Josh Donaldson. Among the most interesting parts of the interview is Donaldson’s credit to NFL wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald for referring soft-tissue expert Dr. Josh Sandell to him. The third baseman also noted that he made some dietary changes during his recovery from injury, and discussed how he feels hitting-wise. “I’ve felt better,” said Donaldson. “I haven’t had much of the results to look for, but I feel like I’ve hit some balls hard. As long as my approach and how I’m seeing the ball — my pitch recognition — is up to par, and I’m hitting the ball solid, there’s not much more I can ask for from that.” The “Bringer of Rain” owns a .811 OPS in a small sample with the Indians as he attempts to help his new club get back to the World Series, all while making his bid for a big free agent payday.
  • Though Cardinals infielder Kolten Wong left Friday’s game early due to cramping, Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweets that he’ll likely be available off the bench today, per manager Mike Shildt. Shildt is reportedly “very hopeful” that Wong can return to the starting lineup tomorrow. That’s in line with good news about the situation coming out of the Cardinals’ camp- the club believes that the cramping was due to dehydration, not a hamstring strain. Wong’s in the midst of the best season of his career by fWAR, having reached base in a third of his plate appearances while playing excellent defense in 869 2/3 innings at the keystone for St. Louis.

 

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Silver Linings: National League East

By Ty Bradley | September 21, 2018 at 7:55pm CDT

In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. Today, we’ll hop over to the National League East.

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central]

While the Phillies are all but eliminated and sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Nats, they hung in the race longer and the 2018 season represented a big step forward nevertheless. Accordingly, we won’t go looking for silver linings in Philadelphia. But we will look at the three worst-performing clubs in the division, including one organization that was rebuilding from the start along with two of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year.

Nationals: Young Outfielders

With Bryce Harper mired in a curious slump for much of the season’s first half, and top-of-the-order dynamo Adam Eaton again on the shelf with ankle issues, the Nationals – a paragon of ignominy and disappointment over the past few seasons – turned for an offensive boost to an unlikely source: 19-year-old Juan Soto, who entered the season with just 301 professional plate appearances, none of which had come above the Low-A level.  Soto responded in a way few rookies – and virtually zero teenagers – have, slashing .297/.410/.518 after his May 15th call-up and carrying the club offensively through much of the summer.  Soto’s seemingly slump-proof output has been buttressed by an insanely high 16.1% BB rate and a preternatural ability, for a left-handed hitter, to handle same-side arms: his 145 wRC+ ranks third among all major league hitters with at least 100 PA in left-on-left matchups.  With Harper set to hit free agency after this season and sign perhaps the richest deal in major league history, Washington has insured itself beyond its wildest hopes: a true star, shining vibrantly before their eyes (for years to come, at a bargain rate of pay).

Though it was somewhat of a lost season for Washington’s most heralded prospect entering the 2018 campaign, 21-year-old Victor Robles, a consensus top-5 prospect among major outlets, offers another ray of hope for a franchise in desperate need of a spark as it transitions toward a future without many of its past stars.  Robles, who missed a good chunk of the season with a hyperextended elbow, slashed just .278/.356/.386 in limited action for Triple-A Syracuse, though he did steal 14 bases in just 40 games for the Chiefs.  The product of the Dominican Republic garners effusive praise for his work on defense, with MLB.com lauding his ’exceptional range and instincts’ and ’off-the-charts athleticism.’  Despite the tepid output at the plate in ’18, Robles still projects as a plus hitter with a chance for above-average power.

With those two cornerstones in place, a healthy Adam Eaton, baserunning whiz Trea Turner – whose 40 steals in 49 attempts have catapulted him to 4.2 fWAR, good for 2nd among all National League shortstops – and Anthony Rendon, perhaps the league’s most unheralded star, the revamped Nationals offense appears to yet again be a strength as the team prepares for the ’19 campaign.

Mets: Rotation Core

The Mets, who began the season in ecstasy and will end it in despair, had few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball this year.  Young lynchpins Amed Rosario and Michael Conforto have had, at best, uneven seasons (albeit with generally promising finishes), and high-profile offseason signings Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier offered little in the way of amends.  Brandon Nimmo’s newfound power stroke was a pleasant surprise, but for the most part, New York relied far too heavily on ineffective veterans and underperforming youngsters.

The rotation, however, was a different story.  Jacob deGrom, currently on pace for the third lowest ERA in franchise history at 1.78, is in the midst of an historic streak, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 27 consecutive starts, the longest such streak in major league history. DeGrom, who turned 30 in June, is under control through the 2020 season and could be a prime trade chip for a franchise in desperate need of an overhaul. Of course, all indications are that the Mets don’t want to part with their best player. As for Noah Syndergaard, the man they call Thor has turned in another stellar season. Even if he failed to produce results quite as dominant as some might wish, he finished with 9.30 K/9 against 2.39 BB/9 and again limited homers at an elite rate.  Syndergaard’s age (26) and remaining years of team control (3) make him nearly as attractive a trade piece as DeGrom, though health is perhaps something of an ongoing question. Thor’s career FIP- (park- and league-adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) of 67 ranks 17th all-time among hurlers and trails only the late Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw among qualified starting pitchers.

Of course, those two hurlers were expected to perform. Even as Matt Harvey foundered and ended up departing, the Mets found a hugely valuable piece in a rather unexpected place. Former top prospect Zack Wheeler, whose early-career success was interrupted by a brutal run of injuries, enjoyed a renaissance as the summer progressed – turning the corner from poor results last year and early in 2018. Wheeler exhibited much-improved command, evidenced by a career-best 2.71 BB/9, which allowed him to compile 4.2 fWAR – easily eclipsing his career total over parts of three seasons with New York.  Even Steven Matz, who struggled for much of the season’s first half, has turned in six consecutive quality starts while lowering his ERA to 4.03, and, perhaps more importantly, has bucked the injury bug that’s bit him routinely throughout his 9-year professional career.

The prospective new regime in New York will have much to consider in their first few months on the job, not least of which will be the fate of their talented young hurlers.  Wheeler, 28, will enter Free Agency after the 2019 season and is the most likely candidate to be dealt, but a full-scale sell-off would go a long way toward replenishing a top-heavy farm and big league roster that shows more atrophy than promise.  DeGrom and Syndergaard would, without question, net franchise-altering returns, but are they moves that ownership (with a new front office regime expected) will be willing to make?  The winter of 2018 promises to be a fascinating one in the Big Apple.

Marlins: Superstar catcher

In a season with perhaps the lowest league-wide expectations since, well, the one following the last Marlins firesale, the new Miami regime had little to look forward to in 2018, and, as it turned out, even less to smile about.

The pitching staff was an unmitigated disaster, with 29 hurlers combining to post a 127 ERA- through the season’s first 152 games, easily the worst mark in MLB.  Signs of life were scarce, though offseason acquisition Caleb Smith did strike out 10.24 batters per nine across 16 starts, showcasing a live fastball and a slider that ranked among the league’s best.  And Trevor Richards, signed out of the independent Frontier League in July of 2016, rode a devastating changeup throughout the minors to the big league rotation in ’18, where poor command and a propensity for the gopher ball led to a 4.95 ERA mark through 23 starts, though he has struck out over a batter per inning as well.

Things weren’t much rosier on the offensive side, where just four regulars posted league-average or above batting lines. One of those players, rookie Brian Anderson, has ridden a .268/.351/.391 line and stellar UZR marks to a 3.0 fWAR total thus far in ’18, though his DRS totals are far less generous.  Top prospect Lewis Brinson has posted a putrid .201/.241/.350 line to this point, and minor leaguers Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Magneuris Sierra – key prospect returns in offseason deals that sent away Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich – each struggled mightily at their respective minor league stops in ’18.

But J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins’ 4th-year catcher, has established himself as the premier backstop in the game. His .282/.347/.497 mark thus far is good for a 131 wRC+ in spacious Marlins Park, easily pacing MLB catchers offensively.  And Realmuto is a well-regarded defender and overall athlete. After back to back 3.5+ fWAR seasons leading up to the 2018 campaign, Realmuto has raised the bar even further this season, posting 4.9 fWAR in just 118 games behind the dish.  His 12.4 fWAR since the beginning of the ’16 season is tops among major league catchers, and with the Marlins still in the nascent stages of a wall-to-wall rebuild, he enters the offseason as one of the most coveted trade candidates in all of baseball.  While the Fish have only two more seasons of control to sell, they’ll come at fairly affordable rates. And contending teams in search of a big move will be hard pressed to acquire a similarly appealing alternative behind the dish.

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Nationals, Fresno Grizzlies Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2018 at 3:59pm CDT

The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve reached an agreement with the Fresno Grizzlies to serve as their new Triple-A affiliate. The newly agreed upon player development contract (PDC) is a two-year arrangement.

The Nats reportedly had interest in partnering with the Nashville Sounds, which would’ve been a much more favorable geographic and logistical arrangement for the organization. Instead, their top minor league affiliate will now be nearly 2800 miles from Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

Previously, the Nationals’ top affiliate had been located in Syracuse, though the Mets purchased the Chiefs last season in order to put an end to the sizable gap between their previous Triple-A affiliate, Las Vegas, and their home park.

The Nats were one of five teams — joined by the Astros, Rangers, Brewers and Athletics — vying for five affiliate spots as recently as this weekend. But with the Astros agreeing to a PDC with the Round Rock Express, the A’s teaming up with the Las Vegas 51s, the Brewers partnering with the San Antonio Missions and the Rangers just recently announcing a new PDC with the Nashville Sounds, the Nationals didn’t have much in the way of previously established alternatives.

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Quick Hits: Martinez, Tigers, Reyes, Francisco

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | September 17, 2018 at 9:07pm CDT

Nationals manager Dave Martinez has drawn his fair share of scrutiny over the course of the season, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes that his job appears safe for the time being. General manager Mike Rizzo recently said he hasn’t considered a scenario where Martinez doesn’t return, and Janes reports that Nationals ownership deferred to Rizzo’s statement when she asked the Lerner family for comment on the matter.

More broadly, Janes speaks with more than a half dozen Nationals players (and has lengthy quotes from most) who vouch for Martinez. Shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Adam Eaton are both adamant in their praise for Martinez, while veteran reliever Sean Doolittle describes the manner in which Martinez’s communication with the bullpen has continually improved over the course of the season. Janes points to the strong praise for Martinez from his players as proof that he has not lost the clubhouse, noting that former Nats manager Matt Williams was unable to maintain this level of support in a disappointing 2015 campaign.

Some more stray notes from around the league…

  • Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire announced to reporters today that his entire coaching staff would return for the 2019 season (Twitter link via MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). That’ll include Rick Anderson returning as the full-time pitching coach — a position he assumed after the Tigers abruptly dismissed Chris Bosio earlier this season in the wake of allegedly racist remarks toward an employee. Anderson, who was Gardenhire’s pitching coach in Minnesota, had previously been the team’s bullpen coach. Lloyd McClendon (hitting), Phil Clark (asst. hitting), former Tigers player Ramon Santiago (first base), Dave Clark (third base), Steve Liddle (bench), A.J. Sager and Joe Vavra (quality control) round out the Detroit coaching staff. Their returns aren’t entirely surprising, as owner Chris Ilitch recently expressed his pleasure with the current direction of his team’s rebuilding efforts.
  • Mets infielder Jose Reyes acknowledges that it has been a trying season, but says he’s still not sure he’ll hang up his spikes this winter, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish language link). It sounds as if Reyes still has the desire to keep going, but also the appropriate perspective on his situation. “When you spend 15 years in the big leagues,” he said, ” it’s obvious that you start thinking about retirement, because we’re not eternal, but right now my physique is one hundred percent. It’s something I’ll think about with my family after the season.” There’s little question that the veteran switch-hitter would be a candidate for a minor-league pact, despite his ugly .196/.268/.332 slash in 235 plate appearances this year, though his prior suspension for alleged domestic abuse could well keep many organizations from showing interest and it’s not evident whether the Mets will ask him back.
  • For some, the decision to step away from the game isn’t a permanent one. That may be the case for former MLB reliever Frank Francisco. Per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, via Twitter, the righty is at least weighing a Dominican Winter League return. Though he recently turned 39 and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014, Francisco says he’s already working in the lower-nineties with his fastball. It remains to be seen whether the ten-year MLB veteran will even try to make it back to the bigs, but we’ve seen plenty of unlikely stories in the past.
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Five Teams Set For Potential Triple-A Affiliate Changes

By Steve Adams | September 17, 2018 at 9:16am CDT

The majority of clubs throughout Major League Baseball have already announced that they’ve renewed their player development contracts with their Triple-A affiliates, but there are still five clubs that don’t have a clear plan in place just yet. Notably, the Astros and the Fresno Grizzles announced yesterday that they will not be renewing their partnership. As MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes, that should pave the way for the ’Stros to land in Round Rock (where they previously had their Triple-A club for a decade). Astros president of business operations Reid Ryan said a return to Round Rock is “at the top of our list,” McTaggart notes, adding that the Ryan family owns the Round Rock Express.

That move, of course, would leave the Rangers searching for a new affiliate, though Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News wrote over the weekend that the Rangers could well end up in San Antonio, where a Triple-A franchise will be added as Colorado Springs loses its Triple-A designation (a move that’ll leave the Brewers, currently in Colorado Springs, looking for a new home as well). As Fraley explores, the facilities to which the Rangers could relocate in San Antonio are currently lacking, which could potentially prove detrimental in pursuing minor league free agents. However, sticking in Texas would come with greater marketing opportunities and a preexisting fan base from which to draw.

The Brewers, Nationals and Athletics are the three other clubs that are yet undecided on next year’s affiliations. The Nats will be seeking a new partner following the post-2017 announcement that the Mets had purchased the Syracuse Chiefs (securing a much-needed geographic upgrade over their current home in Las Vegas). The Athletics, in similar fashion, would reap significant geographic benefits by moving from their current home in Nashville to either Fresno or Las Vegas.

Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Journal-Review notes that the Nationals have expressed interest in moving to Nashville, while Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee suggests that the A’s would likely have their pick between Fresno and Las Vegas, as both would prefer to partner with the Athletics for geographic reasons, giving Oakland the advantage. That’ll present the A’s with the decision of whether to play in California or move to a newly constructed facility Vegas and seems likely to leave the Brewers with an even larger gap between their big league club and their top minor league affiliate, though they’ll be moving into improved facilities either way.

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Pitching Notes: Hellickson, Buchholz, Skaggs, A’s

By Connor Byrne | September 15, 2018 at 10:32pm CDT

Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson may have thrown his last pitch as a member of the Nationals. The pending free agent re-injured his right wrist during an at-bat Saturday, and he told reporters afterward that he won’t return this season (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Saturday’s start was the first in a month for Hellickson, who had been on the shelf with a sprained wrist. Injuries notwithstanding, this will go down as a successful season for Hellickson after he had to settle for a minor league deal over the winter. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA/4.22 FIP with 6.41 K/9, 1.97 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent groundball rate in 91 1/3 innings.

  • Like Hellickson, righty Clay Buchholz has been as an excellent value pickup in 2018. Arizona signed the longtime Boston hurler to a minors deal in early May, and he went on to throw 98 1/3 frames of 2.01 ERA/3.46 FIP ball as a Diamondback, also adding 7.41 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate. Buchholz’s season is now done, as he incurred a flexor mass strain in his right elbow, but his D-backs tenure shouldn’t necessarily be over, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Arizona has enough questions in its rotation that it should consider a reunion with the pending free agent, details Buchanan, who argues Buchholz’s elbow issue doesn’t look severe enough that it should scare off the team. Rather, as a result of the injury, the Diamondbacks may be able to re-sign the 34-year-old at a reduced price. Whether the D-backs are interested in bringing Buchholz back is unclear, but Buchanan notes that the player has “enjoyed” his run with the club.
  • Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs, out since Aug. 11 with a left adductor strain, plans to return to the majors this season, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. If Skaggs’ bullpen session on Sunday goes well, he could take the ball for the Angels during the upcoming week, Guardado relays. The 27-year-old’s adductor has forced him to the disabled list three times this season and limited him to 116 2/3 innings. That’s a career-high total for Skaggs, though, and with a 3.78 ERA/3.38 FIP, 9.49 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9, and a 45.6 percent grounder rate over that span, he has offered encouraging results.
  • Myriad injuries in their rotation could have stopped the Athletics from contending this season. Instead, thanks in part to scrapheap pickups Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the A’s own one of the majors’ best records (90-59) and are now playoff shoo-ins. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com delves into how Oakland has succeeded, noting that its Matt Chapman-led defense leads the league in DRS (59) and has taken pressure off its pitchers. The staff – which has gone through 14 starters – has also gotten help from veteran catchers Jonathan Lucroy and Josh Phegley, pitching coach Scott Emerson and a stellar bullpen, as Crasnick explains in a piece that’s worth checking out.
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NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Santana, deGrom, Camargo

By Mark Polishuk | September 15, 2018 at 10:01am CDT

Ryan Zimmerman feels he has “two, three, four years left” in his career and he wants to spend them with the Nationals, the veteran first baseman tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson as part of a lengthy Q&A piece, admitting that “It would be really weird to play anywhere else.”  It seemed as if Zimmerman’s time as an effective everyday player was winding down after injury-shortened seasons in 2014-16, though he rebounded with a healthy and productive 2017 season.  This year has been more of a mixed bag, as Zimmerman missed over two months with an oblique injury but has hit well (.267/.343/.506 in 286 PA) when he has been able to play.

Zimmerman, who turns 34 later this month, is owed $18MM next season, plus the Nats hold a $18MM club option on his services for 2020.  He acknowledged that he won’t be making such superstar money in the future, saying “At some point, if you want to be here, you have to make some sacrifices. I’m not going sit here and say I’m willing to play for the league minimum, but for me to play here would be the ultimate goal, to finish my career here.”

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • Could the Phillies look to trade Carlos Santana this offseason?  “There has been some recent rumble” about the possibility, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, though the idea seems rather speculative in nature.  Santana signed a three-year, $60MM deal to join the Phils just last winter, a signing that seemed surprising at the time since the club seemingly already had breakout rookie Rhys Hoskins established at first base.  Hoskins was shifted to left field instead, leading to a disastrous result from a defensive standpoint (-25 Defensive Runs Saved, -15.4 UZR/150).  Santana, meanwhile, has hit .233/.354/.429 with 23 homers over 616 PA — solid numbers, if less than the Phillies were expecting from the signing.  A Santana trade would allow Hoskins to return to first base, while allowing the Phillies to upgrade defensively at the very least in left field, and possibly make an even bigger all-around addition given how the team is thought to be preparing for a splashy offseason.  It’s worth noting that $25MM of Santana’s contract has already been paid out in salary and signing bonus, though even $35MM over the two remaining years could be a bit of a tough sell in trade talks, as Santana is limited to just first base (or DH) and he turns 34 in April.
  • Long before Jacob deGrom became a Cy Young contender, he was an unheralded ninth-round draft choice for the Mets in 2010 who wasn’t even used as a starting pitcher until near the end of his final year at Stetson University.  The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) has the story about how Mets scout Les Parker initially discovered deGrom, almost by accident as Parker happened to attend a scout day game at Stetson long enough to see deGrom enter as a reliever in the ninth inning.  Other Mets evaluators agreed with deGrom’s potential, and while his profile rose after becoming a starter later in Stetson’s season, the Giants were the only other team known to have significant interest in drafting deGrom.  The story is well worth a full read for a look at the scouting process and how you never know which prospect could emerge as a future star.
  • There has been quite a bit of speculation about the future of the Braves’ third base spot, be it top prospect Austin Riley winning the job or the possibility that Atlanta could look to acquire a big-ticket name for the hot corner.  Johan Camargo, however, has played well as the regular third baseman this season, and The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) wrote earlier this week that Camargo seems to be forcing himself into the Braves’ future plans.  “He’s done a lot to (impress team officials),” manager Brian Snitker said.  “As they go into the offseason and they’re looking, they might be able to take money they were going to spend (at third base) and spend it somewhere else.”  Camargo has hit .274/.354/.468 with 18 homers over 474 PA this season, while also posting a +6.5 UZR/150 and +5 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner.  This adds up to an under-the-radar 3.0 fWAR season for the 24-year-old, who is under team control through the 2023 season.  The Braves could use Camargo in a super-utility role should Riley emerge as a viable big leaguer in Spring Training, or O’Brien even raises the possibility that Riley could become a trade chip if Camargo has done enough to win the everyday third base job going forward.  It would be a bold move to deal a top-100 prospect like Riley, though Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to moving prospects for established Major League talent.
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Atlanta Braves New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Austin Riley Carlos Santana Jacob deGrom Johan Camargo Ryan Zimmerman

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NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 12:31am CDT

As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

  • The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
  • As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
  • It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Clay Buchholz Jacob deGrom Nick Senzel Patrick Corbin

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Nationals Activate Jeremy Hellickson

By Jeff Todd | September 12, 2018 at 1:50pm CDT

The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Jeremy Hellickson from the disabled list. He had been sidelined since suffering a wrist sprain during his last outing on August 15th.

It’s too late now for Hellickson to help the Nats crawl back into contention. And he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason if moved via trade. He will, however, add another arm to the mix while showcasing showcase for his own upcoming free agency.

Hellickson has neared the open market under quite different circumstances twice already. He received a qualifying offer from the Phillies after a strong 2016 campaign, but pitched poorly in 2017 after taking the hefty one-year deal. That set up a disappointing first foray into free agency, when he settled for a minors deal in D.C. in the middle of Spring Training.

Hellickson’s current contract came with only a $2MM base salary, though it did also include up to $4MM in incentives. Details on that clause have not yet been publicized, though it’s certainly possible that new thresholds could still be within reach.

To this point of the season, Hellickson has thrown 88 1/3 innings over 18 starts. That’s an average of less than five frames per outing, though that usage was by design rather than a reflection of poor pitching. In fact, Hellickson has thrived in this carefully controlled role, working to a 3.57 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a career-best 46.2% groundball rate.

In most ways, Hellickson looks to be much the same pitcher he always has been. By mostly eliminating his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a given outing, though, the Nats have lopped off his typically dreadful results in such situations. Perhaps that approach best explains the good year; of course, he’s also allowing only a .254 BABIP and is outperforming the expectations of ERA estimators (4.25 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA).

What that’s worth on the open market remains to be seen. But Hellickson has surely thrown well enough to warrant a deal that comes with a 40-man spot. It should help that he’ll have a chance to tamp down any health questions by returning for the last few weeks of the season, even if that means working out of the bullpen.

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Washington Nationals Jeremy Hellickson

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