Nats, Reds Have Discussed Aroldis Chapman Trade
The Nationals and Reds have discussed a trade involving Aroldis Chapman, although no deal appears imminent, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. (In a separate tweet, Morosi characterizes the talks as “very preliminary.”) Earlier today, Morosi wrote that the Nationals were looking for late-inning bullpen help. Chapman would obviously fit the bill, even though the Nats don’t have any specific need for a closer in particular, with Drew Storen performing well.
The 27-year-old Chapman has struggled with his control a bit more this year than in years past, with 5.6 BB/9. As usual, though, his eye-popping stuff and strikeout numbers (14.8 K/9) have been more than enough to paper over any minor control issues. Chapman’s fastball remains otherworldly, clocking in at an average velocity of 99.5 MPH this year, and his slider is very much a plus pitch as well.
Chapman is making $8.05MM this season. He is eligible for free agency after 2016. Given his dominance, he represents a bargain at his current salary. The prospect cost the Reds could command for him ought to be substantial, particularly given that he has a year of control remaining beyond this one.
Nationals Looking For Late-Inning Relief Help
The Nationals are contacting teams in search of late-inning relievers, both right-handed and left-handed, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. The Nationals appear set at closer, with Drew Storen having a terrific season, and their bullpen as a whole hasn’t been a weakness, ranking fifth in the NL in xFIP. It ranks tenth in the NL in ERA at 3.66, however, and hasn’t always gotten solid performances from key relievers beyond Storen. Aaron Barrett (who the Nats recently lost to a bicep strain) and Craig Stammen are on the disabled list. Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard and Jerry Blevins are all gone from last year’s team.
Meanwhile, the Nationals’ rotation has pitched just 5.8 innings per game this season, as CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman notes. The Nats don’t want to overwork bullpen veterans like Casey Janssen or Matt Thornton, which means the team has frequently had to worry about where its innings will come from. The team recently activated the newly acquired David Carpenter when it placed Barrett on the DL, and Carpenter might provide a bit of help, but it’s not surprising that the Nats would also want to look elsewhere.
Trade Market Notes: Top Targets, Papelbon, Jays, Mets, Cueto
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com ranks the top forty trade candidates around the league, adding observations and notes on each. Though he notes that clubs like the Red Sox and Orioles could potentially end up moving assets, Heyman restricts things to clubs that seem more likely than not to sell at this point. Cole Hamels of the Phillies lands in the pole position; though some top suitors remain unwilling to part with the top players targeted by Philadelphia, one GM tells Heyman that the club will probably be able to land a premium prospect for the lefty. He also argues that a deal involving Dodgers outfielder and Angels starter C.J. Wilson looks good on paper, though the teams have not discussed such an arrangement. You’ll need to read the whole post to take it all in, of course.
- The Blue Jays and Phillies have not discussed Jonathan Papelbon in the last week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links), adding that Toronto is looking at other arms at the moment. One name to watch, says Sherman, is Tyler Clippard of the Athletics, who Toronto had in-depth discussions about over the winter.
- It’s academic at this point, but Clippard also drew significant interest from the Astros over the offseason, Sherman further tweets. Indeed, Houston was “very close” to acquiring the veteran reliever, says Sherman, which raises the interesting question of what the Nationals would have received in return. Ultimately, the club took infielder Yunel Escobar in return, though that deal did not occur until a month after the Astros had already spent big on free agent bullpen arms, which could indicate that the prospective Clippard acquisition might have been contemplated earlier in the winter.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson indicated that the club will not rely on a return from David Wright in making its summer moves, David Lennon of Newsday writes. Alderson said the club would not continue providing regular updates on Wright’s status, and said he would not be restricted in making moves. “Would we consider a third baseman who can’t do anything else?” Alderson queried. “Under the circumstances, yeah, we probably would. But we’re not just looking for any third baseman. It has to be something we think is an improvement that doesn’t cost us significantly.” The veteran GM continued to throw cold water on the idea of a move in the near-term, noting that the market was “narrow” and generally features underperforming players at this stage.
- C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer discusses the Reds‘ current predicament, with Zack Cozart out for the season, Devin Mesoraco likely to join him in that regard, and Marlon Byrd sidelined for a significant stretch. Cincinnati should not allow its hosting of the All-Star game to slow its efforts to deal Johnny Cueto, opines Rosecrans, who suggests that the team could reap a larger reward by moving him now (both by selling more starts and, perhaps, by getting ahead of the market). Dealing Cueto, of course, would also increase the appeal of shipping out Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Rosecrans concludes: “At this point, the organization doesn’t need to think about the All-Star Game, or even 2016. This is a long-term move and needs long-term thinking.”
- Though he’s a rental, Cueto is a true ace and should bring back a healthy return — even if it won’t be near what the Reds might have achieved last year (as Rosecrans explains). There should be no shortage of suitors, but MLB.com’s Phil Rogers lists the five most plausible landing spots: the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres.
Trade Notes: Sellers, Dodgers, Papelbon, Jays, Twins
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs opines that we may be headed for the “most extreme sellers’ market in years” given the unprecedented parity in the American League and a lack of sellers in the National League. Only 8.5 games separate the best team in the AL and the second-worst, Cameron notes, and the worst club (the Athletics) can be reasonably expected to turn things around if one believes in the estimation of a context-neutral system like BaseRuns (of course, Oakland’s hole may be too deep to escape even if their luck turns). In the NL, only the Phillies and Brewers are clear sellers, and even potential sellers like the Diamondbacks and Marlins are loaded with young, controllable players as opposed to appealing veteran assets. The Reds and Rockies may eventually sell also, but they’re close enough to .500 at this time that they may wait until late in trade season to market their players. Cameron adds that if the Rox “really won’t trade Tulowitzki in this market, where there might not be another significant power hitter available, then they should just never trade him.” I’m inclined to agree that it’s difficult to imagine a better market for Colorado to move Tulowitzki, particularly if he continues a torrid hot streak that is silencing any previous concerns about his health.
A few more trade-related notes as we begin to get the time of year when teams will shift their focus to improving the 25-man roster…
- It’s no secret that the Dodgers could use a quality starter, and Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes that the club is looking at the very top of the market. The top Dodgers target is Nationals righty Jordan Zimmermann. Other preferred names include Johnny Cueto of the Reds and David Price of the Tigers. Of course, it’s far from clear what kind of deal would interest contenders like Washington and Detroit, and Saxon notes that Los Angeles has no reason to believe at this point that Zimmermann could be had via trade. While Cueto is obviously expected to be available, it’s hard to imagine the other two arms being dealt barring some significant change (e.g., loss of a major player to injury or a rather dramatic slide in the standings) or serious creativity in structuring a deal.
- Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon has seen his name in the news today, and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark adds to the reports indicating that Philadelphia is increasingly interested in moving the veteran. Rivals think that the Phils may be looking to deal Papelbon sooner rather than later in order to get out ahead of other clubs that might sell off late-inning arms — namely, the Athletics (Tyler Clippard) and Reds (Aroldis Chapman).
- It remains to be seen what kind of return the Phillies can achieve on Papelbon, but the club’s apparent willingness to keep some of the salary obligations will obviously help on the prospect side of the equation. Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com attempts to gauge Papelbon’s value by looking at recent deals involving late-inning arms, indicating that the club might be interested in bolstering its organization depth with multiple prospects if it can’t pry loose a single player that it really likes.
- The Blue Jays undeniably have a need at the back of the pen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca, but the club does not seem any closer to reaching agreement on Papelbon. While the teams have indeed chatted recently, Davidi says that Philly is still not willing to take on enough of Papelbon’s salary to make an agreement palatable. And Toronto is not looking to part with its better minor league talent, perhaps buoyed by the fact that there is not a ton of demand for Papelbon. The Jays are definitely constrained by financial limitations, says Davidi, who sums it up thusly: “in all likelihood they have one, maybe two moves in them, so they can ill-afford a costly roll of the dice.”
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says that the failure of last year’s mid-season Kendrys Morales signing will not cause the team to pause in pursuing an upgrade this summer, as Derek Wetmore of 1500ESPN.com writes. “I would do it again if I had an opportunity,” Ryan said of the Morales move. “It just didn’t work.” He went on to say that the club is looking to see what it can do to take advantage of its nice start: “We’re doing pretty good and we certainly have to have our eyes open,” Ryan said. “We’re in contention, there’s no secret here. We have an opportunity to do some things and hopefully we’ll be able to.”
Nationals Acquire David Carpenter From Yankees
The Yankees announced that they have traded recently designated right-hander David Carpenter to the Nationals in exchange for minor league second baseman Tony Renda. Outfielder Nate McLouth has been placed on the 60-day DL to accommodate Carpenter on the 40-man roster.
New York acquired Carpenter from the Braves this offseason on the heels of a pair of excellent seasons working as a setup man for Craig Kimbrel in the Atlanta bullpen. (That trade sent the previously vaunted Manny Banuelos to Atlanta and also netted the Yankees southpaw Chasen Shreve.) However, after posting a 2.63 ERA over 126 2/3 innings with 10.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 from 2013-14, Carpenter struggled quite a bit in his brief time with New York. As a member of the Yankees, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.82 ERA in 18 2/3 innings, striking out just 11 hitters against seven walks.
Carpenter maintained very strong fastball velocity with the Yankees, averaging 94.9 mph on his heater. He also posted a career-best 42.4 percent ground-ball rate and struggled with home runs, so perhaps the Nationals feel that a move back to a larger stadium in the National League will help to alleviate his troubles with the long ball. Of course, there will be additional work needed to sort out the righty’s control and restore his significantly diminished strikeout rate.
Carpenter is earning $1.275MM after avoiding arbitration this offseason, and the remaining $815K or so of that sum will be picked up by the Nats. If Carpenter is able to turn it around in D.C., the Nationals will have control of him through the 2017 season — his age-31 campaign.
The 24-year-old Renda, a second-round pick of the Nats in 2012, ranked as Washington’s No. 12 prospect this offseason according to Baseball America and currently ranks 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 list. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. Both scouting reports agree that Renda lacks plus tools across the board but has outstanding makeup and work ethic. He’s not said to be a plus runner but has potentially average speed and is a “solid defender, capable of making the routine plays well,” per Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, though the duo does refer to him as an “offensive-minded” second baseman. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel didn’t rate Renda among his top Nats prospects this offseason, but he did mention that the infielder has a good approach and advanced bat control despite a lack of power. In 228 plate appearances at the Double-A level this season, Renda has batted .267/.330/.340 with a homer and 13 steals.
Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba
The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.
- Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
- Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.
Quick Hits: Pompey, Ross, Reds
The Blue Jays have moved center fielder Dalton Pompey from Triple-A Buffalo to Double-A New Hampshire, as Ben Nicholson of Sportsnet.ca notes. It’s been a rough season for the 22-year-old Pompey, one of the Jays’ top prospects. He hit .193/.264/.337 in 91 plate appearances in the Majors before being sent to Buffalo, where he continued to struggle offensively while also dealing with knee trouble. “He just hasn’t gotten it going yet,” says Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos. “I don’t know that there’s anything specifically. … Some guys just aren’t swinging well at a certain time.” Here’s more from around the game.
- The Nationals lost 4-2 to the Cubs Saturday, but top prospect Joe Ross had a reasonably good big-league debut, allowing three runs over five innings but striking out four without walking a batter. Ross’ promotion caught him by surprise, as Chase Hughes of NatsInsider.com writes. Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross, Joe’s brother, watched him make his big-league debut in Washington, and Cubs manager Joe Maddon noted similarities between the two pitchers. “Quick arm. Velocity was there. Really, an effective slider, not unlike his brother,” says Maddon. “Great athlete… He’s going to be very good for them. Coming out of Double-A, he represented himself really, really well.”
- With his big-league debut Friday, Jon Moscot became the fourth rookie pitcher to start for the Reds this season, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Moscot joins Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen and Raisel Iglesias. “Well, we’re playing with what we have,” says manager Bryan Price. “[W]e had to make some roster adjustments for some payroll flexibility which led to some of the offseason moves. And it also created some opportunities for these young guys when needed to come in and pitch, but we knew this was our fall back.” The Reds currently have Homer Bailey and Iglesias on the disabled list, and they recently designated Jason Marquis for assignment after nine unsuccessful starts, leaving Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake as the only veterans in the rotation at the moment.
Nationals Promote Joe Ross
SATURDAY: The Nationals have officially announced the move. To clear space for Ross on their active roster, they’ve optioned fellow pitcher A.J. Cole to Triple-A Syracuse. The clear space on the 40-man, they moved righty Craig Stammen to the 60-day disabled list.
FRIDAY: The Nationals will promote right-handed pitching prospect Joe Ross (the younger brother of San Diego’s Tyson Ross) on Saturday prior to their game versus the Cubs, according to a tweet from NorCal Baseball — Ross’ baseball league from his teenage years. Nationals manager Matt Williams has since told reporters, including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (Twitter link) that Ross will indeed be starting against the Cubs tomorrow.
One of two key players acquired in the three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to the Padres and Steven Souza Jr. to the Rays (the other being Trea Turner, who is still with San Diego due to PTBNL status), Ross entered the season ranked as the No. 63 prospect in baseball, according to ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required). Baseball America and also considered him a Top 100 prospect, although they were a bit less bullish, ranking him 96th.
Ross has made pitching at Double-A Harrisburg look easy in his first year with the Nationals organization, compiling a 2.81 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings. The former 25th-overall draft pick is said by BA to possess a fastball that sits 91-93 mph but can be ramped up to 96 mph when needed. BA also calls his low- to mid-80s slider a plus pitch and notes that his changeup made a significant amount of improvement in 2014, giving Ross a chance to pan out as a No. 3 type starter in the Majors.
The Nationals have incurred a pair of notable injuries in their rotation, with both Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister on the shelf at the moment. Perhaps more troubling is the fact that neither pitched particularly well when healthy. Strasburg’s velocity and K/BB numbers remained strong, giving the team some hope, but Fister’s velocity was down around 85 mph, and his strikeouts have all but vanished. Tanner Roark has slotted into the rotation in their absence, and the highly regarded Cole has made a start as well. But Roark has not matched his 2014 success either; despite a 2.59 ERA, Roark has just 11 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings this year and a woeful 5.35 FIP.
None of this is to say that Ross is guaranteed to receive a prolonged look in the Major Leagues. Given his complete lack of experience at the Triple-A level, he could very well find himself back in the minors for more seasoning. Were Ross to remain with the Nationals for the duration of the season, however, he’d accumulate 122 days of Major League service time, which would, in all likelihood, leave him short of attaining Super Two status down the line.
Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft
We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.
Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:
- As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
- The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
- Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.
NL East Notes: Gee, Niese, Murphy, Marlins, Fister
Here’s the latest from the National League East:
- The Mets are “ramping up [their] efforts” to trade both Dillon Gee and Jon Niese, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. New York indicated today that it’s likely the club will back off of its six-man rotation and return to a traditional schedule. With Noah Syndergaard now fairly firmly installed at the big league level, and Steven Matz not far behind him, it makes sense that the club would be looking to see what it can get out of Gee and Niese. Both have good track records of steady production and are controllable in the future at affordable rates, but unfortunately neither has matched their historical results thus far in 2015.
- As they weigh rotation moves, which rate as good problems, the Mets are dealing with more troubling issues in the infield. The team has placed infielder Daniel Murphy on the 15-day DL with a strained quad, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com was among those to report. It’s not believed to be a serious injury, according to manager Terry Collins, but the club can ill afford any significant absence from Murphy. New York is already missing third baseman David Wright for an indeterminate stretch, while highly-regarded youngster Dilson Herrera is also working back from the DL (as well as backstop Travis d’Arnaud). An infield addition of some kind already seemed a plausible target for the Mets, though of course this injury is unlikely to have an impact unless it turns into something worse than expected.
- While the Marlins continue to wait and see how to proceed at the deadline, the club is looking to build out its pen to give it the best chance at entering the contention picture, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. Miami has discussed David Carpenter, who was recently designated by the Yankees and is about as intriguing an arm as you can hope to find at a reasonable price tag at this time of year.
- Nationals righty Doug Fister is set to make his first rehab appearance this weekend at Triple-A, James Wagner of the Washington Post tweets. It would appear as if things have gone about as well as could be hoped since he hit the DL with forearm tightness after his start on May 14. He’ll be a welcome addition to the Nats rotation, assuming he can return after a few minor league starts, and can begin attempting to rebuild his free agent value.