Soriano for Griffey Deal In The Works?

It's always fun to find trade rumors in Spanish newspapers.  El Nuevo Dia's latest discusses an Alfonso Soriano for Ken Griffey Jr. trade that is cooking up.  The following is a rough translation (hat tip to Mariloren on the translation!):

The Reds and Nationals have been negotiating the Soriano for Griffey trade over the last few days.  Soriano refused comment when approached by the newspaper.  Details are the proposed transaction are still unknown.  If traded to the Nationals, Griffey would be reunited with former Reds GM Jim Bowden. 

My own commentary: I think the Reds would be the winners in this one.  Griffey is still on the hook for $41.5MM over the next three seasons.  Even if the Reds pick up a third of the cost, they probably come out ahead.  Soriano is a clear upgrade over the current choice to play second base, Tony Womack.  Of course, Ryan Freel might be better than both second basemen, but the Reds seem intent on using him in a supersub role. 

Despite subpar defense for a center fielder, the Nats would surely play Griffey out there.  The loser in the deal would probably be Ryan Church, who could be dealt if Jose Guillen proves healthy.

In other news from the article, Juan Gonzalez is still hungry to return to the Majors and try to reach 500 home runs.

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Comments

[Braveswin]

Nooo, not Griffey to Washington! I would rather seem him go to a contending team for a shot at a ring.

[Randy]

Gonzalez is unlikely to get a chance. All these steriod guys - Sosa, Palmeiro,Canseco,etc. are not wanted anymore. Teams don't want to deal with the headaches involved.

Bonds is likely to be suspended soon. This whole mess is becoming too much of an embarrassment for baseball. They will be cracking down very soon.

[Sam Stevens]

You're quite right, Braveswin: Griffey wants a ring. Would he be any happier in Washington than Soriano? Happy players may not directly equate wins, but they sure makes following a team more fun.

Despite Griffey's subpar defense, it's been awesome watching him swing in the WBC and I don't think could help myself from feeling pleased if he lands in Washington. Am I crazy? Perhaps I've caught a case of Bowdenitis! :)

[dirkdigger]

this works out ... i think soriano is exactly what the reds need ..

[Ed]

That would be a pretty good trade for both teams...as a Reds fan I wouldn't complain. Then Soriano gets dealt at the deadline for pitching.

[Pinski]

This would make an already terrible Reds defense worse. Though it is an improvement in the offense, I don't think its enough to make up for the worst pitching staff in the majors.

[Ed]

That's why he gets dealt at the deadline for pitching.

[bobo]

Um, simple question: who plays CF for the Reds then? Freel? Pena (then who plays left?)

I guess the Reds win by losing Griffey's salary, but positionally I don't see how this makes sense...unless I'm missing something....

[RMR]

Junior has final say on any trade. I'm not quite sure why he'd accept a trade to a city that doesn't move him any closer to home and to a team that doesn't provide him any better chance at a championship.

That said, the Reds are desperate for offensive help and could definitely use a poor defensive 2B...

It only makes sense for the Reds if the Nats would assume all of Junior's financial or if the Reds already had a partner lined up for flip Soriano for pitching.

[Dave]

Finally, a Soriano trade rumor that doesn't involve the Cubs.

[RumorMonger]

I think a lot of guys could play a better defensive CF than Griffey - perhaps Kearns or Freel.

[bobo]

Actually from the past couple years, seems like they like Pena over Kearns in center. Ok, so one of two arrangements:

Pena in center, Kearns in right, Dunn in left, Hatteberg at 1st.

OR

Freel in center, Kearns in right, Pena in left, Dunn at 1st.

Makes a little more sense now I guess.

I actually think the offense gets worse (just because I hate Soriano), even with Griffey's injury risk.

Soriano's making what, $11M or so for 2006, and Griffey's making $41.5M for 2006-08? So it becomes a question of how much are the Reds willing to pay to get rid of Griffey...

If Griffey is worth $2M more this year (highly debatable), then it's "how much would you pay NOT to have to pay Griffey ~$29M in 07 and 08?". In reality, Griffey's probably a $6M a year player, which would suggest the Reds should pay ~$17M. It will probably be a bit less, somewhere between $10M and $15M, which jives with your "third of the cost" comment.

If I'm the Reds, I probably do it if I have to pay $14M. If it's more than that, I'd rather take my chances that he has good season, then trade him to the Yankees to be their 2nd half DH.

[RumorMonger]

Yep, I agree with everything you said.

[Ed]

Griffey - .301 with 35 HRs last year is a $6 million player? I would have to disagree.

[bobo]

Multiply his production by his chances of staying healthy, and I think you end up with about $6M. And you're comparing 2008 with 2005?

[BlueCrew]

About Gonzalez... Everybody knows that when healthy, he can be a force at the plate. I think that he would be a good fit for in LF with the Dodgers. That would allow them to be careful with the injury prone J.D. Drew and the aging Kenny Lofton, with Cruz Jr being able to play all 3 outfield positions. With furcal at the top of the lineup, they need more pop in the lineup more than they need another leadoff hitter (lofton) in the 2 hole. This would allow them to put Garciaparra (now not as much power, but always puts the ball in play) in the 2 hole in order to have a right handed hitter infront of drew. And currently, they are expecting Lofton to play more than 120 games...Many people don't think that will happen. I dont see why they wouldnt give him in incentive laden deal. It just makes too much sense.

[BlueCrew]

Any ideas of who might be interested in Gonzalez?

[Ed]

When you look at some of the other contracts in baseball today (Kaz Matsui, Pavano, Jared Wright, etc etc etc) I think Grif is worth at least $10 mil, especially to a larger mkt team. Don't forget the amt of fans he will bring in while he is chasing 600 HRs.

[BlueCrew]

I dont think it's a coincedence that all the players you listed play for New York Teams....

Salary Cap..please!

[Uncle Charlie]

BlueCrew needs to learn to shut his mouth!!!

[BlueCrew]

Uncle Charie -

I'm still trying to figure out why you said that...

Is it because no matter how much money your teams spend, you still can't win?

Or is it because you like the top payroll teams to have an unfair advantage?
-(amount that the yankees paid last year in luxury tax was greater than some teams payrolls...if that's doesnt sent up a red flag i dont know what would.

[Brandini]

The Reds want Andy Abad to play the outfeild! Haha

[Ed]

For all the money the Yankees spend and for all the egos Yankee fans have, they still haven't won shit since 2000. And it doesn't look like they'll been winning anytime soon. Especially since their best SPs have one foot in the grave.

[Devin]

I think Gonzalez is most likely to end up as a Card, Dodger or Yankee. At first I considered saying Blue Jay but as a Jay fan I really don't think Gonzalez is a fit.

I say Yankee's because of that report on this website awhile ago about A-Rod visiting Sammy Sosa. This could be a replacement idea for that.

[option]

The Yankees are -not- looking for another Dh.. at the moment at least, I'll give you that.

...but Gonzalez as a replacement for Sosa?... wow. Sosa was never a plan..

[Devin]

Actualy according to reports Sosa was a plan as a Bat off the bench vs Lefties and a backup to Shef in the Outfield

[Kyle]

Ed I dont think you know what you are talking about. Yes the Yankees havent won a world series since 2000 but they have won the division every year has any team won two during that span? And the Yankees are right now ranked either 2 or 3 on almost all preseason power rankings behind the White Sox and occasionally the A's. Randy Johnson had a very good year last year and he will only improve as he gets more comfortable. Chacon and Wang are very promising young players and if any of the starters faulter the Yankees have tremendous depth in pitching in both the Majors and AAA. The Yankees dont need a team Era in the 3's. They will probably average at least 6 runs a game this year so if all the starters have ERA's under 5 and the bullpen can be good the Yankees wILL win the division.

And the yankees have absolutely no need need for a DH. They already have enough people who will be alternating at DH. Sheffield, Giambi, Matsui, Williams, and Phillips will each DH at least 20 times with Williams, Phillips and Giambi probably getting more

[Ed]

Kyle,
According to Yankee fans, the YES Network, The NY Daily News and NY Post, Steinbrenner, Jeter and the rest of the Yankee all-stars, only championships matter. For all the money the Yankees spend, they should be winning championship after championship. If Cashman didn't have a $200 million payroll to play with, both he and Torre would be on the unemployment line.

[Kyle]

I realize that Championships are all that matter and I agree with that all I care about are WS rings. But you stated "they still haven't won shit since 2000" and they have won a lot except for some unfortunate breaks. And I beg to differ on the Payroll issue. Cashman is a very good GM and he has been handicapped by people that Steinbrenner "had" to have. But we will see. These next three years will determine what kind of GM Cashman is. I will not even argue about Torre because as far as I am concerned he is a saint but hey you are entitled to your opinion. The Yankees have made mistakes with players but so have all teams. They have made more but that is because there is no such thing as a rebuilding year. The yankees can't take a year and let young guys develop Steinbrener would fire the entire staff if the Yankees missed the playoffs.

Money doesn't win championships in a 5 or 7 game series anything can happen. The best team will make the playoffs 9 time out of 10 because of the immense amount of games. But the best team will not necassarily prosper in a 5 or 7 game series too much depends on momentum and attitude. Since 2000 the Yankees have competed every year and have been eliminated by teams that have just played better than the yankees over those 4 to 7 games

[Ed]

Personally I think Torre walked into a great situation and didn't have much to do with that WS run. He has consistently had the best team on paper and then loaded up at the trade deadline, only to falter in the playoffs each year since 2000. Torre will make the HOF because of a 5 year stretch as a manager and not because of his entire managerial career, which is mediocre (at best) before heading to the highest payroll in sports history.
I agree that money isn't everything, but can you say that Cashman has EVER made a wise move that involved some actual GM talent? His best moves were getting Justice in a salary dump and getting Chacon as a last ditch effort last year. The rest of his legacy has been built on getting the final league leaders from the year before and either signing them as FAs or calling the other GM to see if they could no longer afford them. And if the draft was globalized, the Yankees would not have any players left to trade since they sign 20 foreign-born players a year and deal them at the deadline.
And the best pitching staffs usually win in a short series. The Yankees have so much money tied up in their pitching staff year after year they should win every year. But when they blow money on Karsay, Pavano, Quantrill, Wright, etc etc etc it's tough to win. I would put that blame directly on Cashman.
One last question...why can't the Yankees rebuild? Because they charge ridiculous ticket prices and are a money making machine because of their location and not because of the people running the franchise? They will have to rebuild sooner or later b/c you cannot keep playing for the present.

[Kyle]

The Yankees cannot rebuild for many reasons (and I agree it would help to rebuild). For one the newspapers would eat them up if they had a losing season. Secondly Steinbrenner wouldnt allow it he wants to win now and every year. Third they have way too much money wrapped up to rebuild most of there players have no trade clauses or are 10-5 guys. They could never do something like what the Marlins did. I think the key to the Yankees being successful is to every year let one of the old guys go and fill his spot with a guy from the minors. This year Mussina and Sheffiel's contracts are up and I would much rather see Melky Cabrera and Philip Hughes in there spots next year. It is hard to judge Cashman since until this year he has not had any autonomy so I will judge him in a couple years when I see what he can do. Torre did fall into a good situation with the Yankees. But there are few coaches who could deal with all the ego's that the yankees have and win. Sheffield was a pain in the ass with all of his teams except the yankees. Soriano had his best years as a yankee for a reason. I like Torre as a coach but if you dont whatever. I am probably the only person on this board who doesnt think Billy Beane is that great but hey everyone has there opinions

[Scott]

So, about Soriano and Griffey. The deal would help the Reds financially and Soriano would succeed in Cinci just like he did in Texas. If the Reds are worried about outfielders, the Nats could throw in Ryan Church as well since the front office may never give him a fair shot. Let's look at the actual financials from the best place to look them up (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/):

Soriano makes $10M this year and is a free agent at the end of the year.

Griffey's deal is, shall we say - more complex.

"00-08:$12.5M/year, 09:$16.5M club option ($4M buyout)
# $57.5M in salary deferred at 4% interest, to be paid 2009-2024, reducing contract's present-day value at time of signing to between $9.2M and $9.3M annually, according to Reds management sources
* $5.5M of 2000 salary deferred
* $6.5M/year of 2001-2008 salaries deferred"

Basically the Reds built him in a 16 year retirement package (2009-2024) by deferring money and his annual salary is just over $9M. Let the Reds be on the hook for all the deferred money and trade for Soriano straight up (who they can then flip for the pitching they so desire by July 31). If they balk, offer Church in the deal as well.

The Nats may end up being well-poised to make a serious run the year their new ballpark opens (2008, hopefully).

[Ed]

Kyle, I agree with you on one point...Beane is overrated. He got lucky with the big 3 never being injured and panning out the way they did.

[Sergio]

Ed and Kyle:

Oakland MLB Avg. Ranks since Beane became GM (1998-2005)

Runs Scored________9.6 out of 30
Runs Prevented_____10.3 out of 30

Wins_______________3.0 out of 30
Payroll____________24.6 out of 30

[Ed]

Sergio,
All I said is that he got lucky when he got three pitchers through the minors w/o major injury. He is a good GM, but definitely overrated.

[Kyle]

I said he was overrated and I am sticking to it. People talk about him like he is head and above the best GM. That isnt the case. He is top 5 but people buy into it too much. Look at the so called money-ball draft where they had like 7 picks how many of those are productive now. The guy has been blessed with great products from there farm system. I wanna see what he does now. Bradley, Thomas, and Loaiza. Those could either be genius moves or a complete waste of money.

[diehardcubbiefan]

The best GM IMO is Theo Epstein.