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What Would You Bid For Miguel Cabrera?

Juan C. Rodriguez is already discussing Miguel Cabrera's free agency, even though he won't reach that point until after the 2009 season.  The magical $200 million number is being thrown around.

If anyone's going to get an A-Rod-ish contract, it's M-Cab.  Alright that's it for hyphenated nicknames today.  D-Mat.  Eight years would have to be the minimum; the Cubs would probably offer twelve (kidding).  And a $20MM AAV seems low to me.  I would expect $25MM.  So yeah, eight years, $200MM is reasonable.

The part of this article I'm not following:

"The same team unwilling to give Cabrera a $22 million AAV over eight years ($176 million) may deem six years and a $29 million AAV ($174 million) more palatable."

I'm no economist, but does that make sense to you?  I get the whole higher AAV, fewer years/risk concept.  But explain to me why you wouldn't want two extra years for $4 mil more?


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I'm going to Predict now he will be Yankee Red Sox or a LA team bound, With an outside shot being Texas. With the Likely winner being the Dodgers.

I'm gonna go out on a limb:

M-Cab is gonna resign with the Marlins for a HUGE hometown discount. He is going to realize the chemistry the team developed by growing up on the field together and he is going to stay.

I think the Marlins management will realize what a steal they've got and offer him 8 yrs 15 AAV and he'll accept.

That is unless they win a WS first...

Guys he's still got 3 years left with the Marlins before he's a FA. Who knows. If the Marlins get a staduim deal then then could sign him to a contract while he is still under club control and that would keep the cost down. Kinda like what Jeremey Bonderman did with the Tigers. It's way too eaerly to be predicting anything right now.

It's hard to tell what the FA market will look like 3 years from now.

For instance, look at the 2000/2001 market peak when all those bums like Hampton and Neagle got ridiculous deals along with AROD, Mussina and Manny. And then look at the 2004 market - three years later. There was a little regression there.

So in 2009, we could be in a much different place. Baseball has so much cash RIGHT NOW, but it looks like teams are already spending that excess cash, which means the 2009 class may be left behind.

There is a lot of guys who will make 200 million in the next few years. Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, and other with close to it, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis, the Mets young guys like David Wright, etc etc.

You can hardly call Hampton a bum. Ok so he was overpaid and he slumped after he got the money but he was a BEAST earlier in his career.

I was also considering this over the value of the Vernon Wells contract. I hope he's a good hitter in 3 years when he starts making 20 mil a year, but with all these great players and the market, I don't see the market going down. Daisuke Matsuzaka and the WBC will ensure that the international health of the game will soar in the next 5 years, and popularity is as healthy as ever. Daisuke Matsuzaka will generate huge interest in baseball alone.

'What Would You Bid For Miguel Cabrera?'

I might give Pujols 200MM, but why the hell would I give Cabrera 200MM? Cabrera is hitting the post-game spread HARD. A move to first base is imminent.

I also think Cabrera will age poorly. I question his worth ethic and athleticism.

Now, if you think Miggy will stick at third, and that he'll continue to develop, then perhaps he's worth it.

"I also think Cabrera will age poorly."

Dude he's 23 years old. He will be 26 when he hits the open Market. Even if you sign him to a 8 year deal he will only be 34 when his contract is up so if anything he will only begin to decline the last year or year and a half of his deal and even those should be very productive seasons. He should do nothing but improve for the next couple of years.

"A move to first base is imminent."

The guy has played 1 season at 3B and is only 23 making him likely to improve and you are already set to move him to 1B? He was not great at 3B last season but he was at least average. He will grow over the next few years. I've never seen anyone give up n one of the best talents in the game so quickly. All this is besides the point tho. What will get him the big contract is his bat, not his glove.

"I question his worth ethic and athleticism."

His work ethic maybe, although he did a good job of getting into shape during the season and has promised he will come into camp in good condition this upcoming season. However, how in the world can you question his athletisim? What more do you want the guy to do over the 1st 3 years of his career to prove he is the real deal?

Yes, Miggy's fat. He was never that fast to begin with, his work ethic and attitude, by all accounts, suck. I can definitely see him fading before age 34. Complacent types who can't stop eating generally don't last until their mid-30's. On top of that, i've got him clocked as an old-player skills type.

He's a great young player... blah blah. Unfortunately, he's going to be a first baseman. I just don't give anybody outside of Pujols that kind of money. Not Ryan Howard, not Cabrera, not anybody.

5 years/140 million so 28 million per year.

As an armchair GM, I'm risk averse especially since all contracts are guaranteed. Committing to anyone with any question mark for more than 4-5 years would be insane.

For a 4-5 year deal for MCab, I'd push the 30 million mark if thats what it took. But 8 years? No thanks.

And I'd put him on the block his last year if resigning him would cost more than 30 million per. Can you imagine what a 31 year old MCab would fetch? If he progresses at this rate.

Of course, if his work ethic shapes up and he stays in shape, 8 years/200 million wouldn't be bad at all.

Of course in 3 years, it'll probably take a lot more depending on the market, revenues and inflation. So I guess thats 28 mil per in today's dollars and today's market.

Uhh.. I should amend something.

"Commiting to anyone THIS EXPENSIVE with any question mark for..."

"Yes, Miggy's fat."

He's got a similar build to Manny and Manny doesn't have any problems hitting does he?

"He was never that fast to begin with, his work ethic and attitude, by all accounts, suck."

I dunno what speed has to do with anything. It was never par of his game and it was never a reason be became one the best players in the game. His work ethic is questionable but there is no problem with his attitude. I dunno what "accounts" you've read about his attitude but I'd like to see those articles. Everything I've read shows him to be well liked by his teammates, easy going and fun in the locker room. I've never once in my life heard onf anything about his attutide. Work ethic yea, attitude no way.

"Complacent types who can't stop eating generally don't last until their mid-30's."

Good thing his contract would probably last until his early 30's. And all thi is pure speculation. He came in out of shape last season but he was a good shape his 1st two year and even when he was out of shape this past season he still put up MVP type numbers.

"He's a great young player... blah blah. Unfortunately, he's going to be a first baseman."

I agree with you. He will be a 1B. 10 or 15 years from now. He was fine defensively all lasts season. He wa a top 10 3B but he definately showed he could hold his own.

"I can definitely see him fading before age 34."

Theres no logic to your reason for this. He was out of shape for one season and you read somewhere that he has bad work ethic so suddenly your going to throw out his 3 great seasons and all of his talent and prodcution based on a theory you have? That makes absolutely no sense.

Name me one thing Miggy has doen production wise to make you think he will not be a top 10 player for the next 10 years. There's nothing his production is outstanding. Your backing theories or yours based on loose ideas and comments.

"Can you imagine what a 31 year old MCab would fetch? If he progresses at this rate."

His BA has increased every year. The smallest increase was .016, meaning that if he progresses at this rate, assuming he increases by .016 every year, he'll be hitting .515 by the end of the contract. Even if we try to curve fit, so the amount of increase decreases, we're talking about a consistent .400 hitter. How much will that command?

Sarcasm aside, the point of this is that predicting how a 23 year old will play when he's 34 is totally absurd.

A few years ago people were saying it was going to get tougher and tougher to win 300 games (which is still very true), but that if anyone had a chance after Maddux (who was close at that time), it would be Mark Prior. A few years later and Prior's going to have to fight for a spot as the fifth starter. What about Griffey Jr. in the 1990s? Sure, he still hit 500+ HRs, but had he not battled injuries the last several years, might we be talking about Junior challenging Aaron?

The same year Prior became everyone's next superstar, Marcus Giles was everyone's future all-world second baseman. Three years later and he's non-tendered.

A lot can happen in three years. It's ridiculous to talk about what Cabrera will make after 2009.

The use of the quote to lead off my comments was not a targeted attack on the author, but simply a starting point for my own comments, lest Henry assume I was taking a shot at his comments. I'd rather not get into the insult hurling so prevalent on this site. I don't recall Henry being one of the perpetrators of it, but I thought I'd clarify anyway.

Not much; bad attitude... Keep him off the reservation!

Go Indians!!!

Agreed we cannot predict what will happen between now and 2009. But discussions have to begin anyway. We are seeing contracts run far past that. It's a necessary evil.

Cabrera could also progress to a 40 HR guy and add even more dollars. If the Marlins are going to retain him they should probably try to start it now.

I'd give him no more than 6 guranteed years with anywhere from a 20-25 aav

lets face it M-Cab is a complete monster. have u ever seen him in real life he dwarfs Josh Johnson who is 6'6 and 240 pounds. He is one of the purest hitters in the game along with Manny, Albert, and Hafner. I think by the time his career is over he will be challenging Pujols, Arod, and Bonds for the top HR hitter list.

oh and darkstar im sure by 2009 the Indians will be right there trying tpo get him cuz im sure Marte wont pan out

Fish will sign him to a 5 year deal this year I think

I was upset when I found out the World Baseball Classic wasn't going to be a yearly thing, I loved it and have every game recorded on DVD. I thought someone would've offered Africa's SS a low-A level contract, he impressed me but you could see how raw he was. I just don't understand why more people didn't enjoy the WBC.....

greenbaydude, u may be right about cabs realizing the chemistry they have and all this, but i honeslty wouldnt be surprised if by 2009 the marlins havent made their run and had another fire sale.

Just for the record, i hated the WBC and thought it was an awful idea

eeleye, d wright may make 200 million, im not sure, but not in the next few years, he is locked up relatively cheap until after the 2011 season i think, same with reyes

only player who deserves 200m+ and probaly will get it if he files for free agency in 2010 is Albert Pujols.

Miggy deserves 200m. I don't think he's as out-of-shape as you all think. 6'2'' 210. That's an inch and 10 pounds more than Beltran, so I really don't think you can call him a fatty. Plus he stole 9 bags last year so he doesn't quite have cement in his shoes. We all know how well he can hit so it's possible for him to hit the 200m mark especially with the inflating FA prices. I mean, if El Caballo can hit the century mark after a few solid seasons, who's to say that Miggy won't get 200m when he outproduces him from age 21 to 26. Oh, Lee is fat, not Miguel. Lee has 30 pounds on him. Anyway, if Miguel keeps doing what he does then he'll be set for at least 200m at 26. 26-34 is basically the prime of your career, and he will defintely be worth over 200m if his prime is anything near what we expect.

"Agreed we cannot predict what will happen between now and 2009. But discussions have to begin anyway. We are seeing contracts run far past that. It's a necessary evil."

I think it's important to separate the idea of agreeing now to pay a player past 2009 and agreeing in 2009 to pay a player for however long beyond that. The latter task involves predicting the finances of baseball at the time and the openness of owners' pocketbooks, in addition to the huge uncertainty in player performance. It's tough to predict how fast salaries will escalate, or whether there might even be a pinch (as some people suggest might happen in 2007, as there will be more good players on the market, and thus more to choose from).

So two people who say Cabrera will get $200M might be saying totally different things, because they have different assumptions about how salaries will escalate (e.g., one person might assume that means he's one of the top five players in the game and the other that it means he's but one of the top fifteen).

I realize this is entertaining to some. But I thought I'd point out that it's pretty futile too (maybe I'm just stating the obvious).

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