Why Padres Likely Won’t Sign Adrian Gonzalez

A pair of interesting viewpoints emerged today about the Padres, and why they are likely to trade Adrian Gonzalez, rather than extend his contract.

As Ken Rosenthal puts it in his latest column, regarding Padres fans, "I would want to know just one thing: Why can’t my team sign Adrian Gonzalez if the Twins can sign Joe Mauer?"

Of course, Rosenthal lists the many reasons: attendance is down in San Diego, San Diego is the 28th biggest television market in baseball, and a Gonzalez deal could net a number of prospects in return.

But there is a more ominous reason cited by Rosenthal: there are questions about new ownership's viability. As Rosenthal writes, "Just over a year ago, Moorad’s group reached agreement to gain controlling interest of the club from John Moores over a five-year period. That’s right, the other owners allowed one of their franchises to be purchased on a layaway plan — an unusual arrangement, to say the least."

Jake Peavy also weighed in on the choice by the Padres to deal Gonzalez during an interview with Dan Hayes of the North County Times.

"He's a great player, and at times I think to myself, 'How could they not sign this guy?'" Peavy said of Gonzalez. "A hometown guy playing for his hometown team and being the superstar player he is. At the same time, this is the same organization that let their Hall of Fame closer walk away."

Peavy was referring, of course, to Trevor Hoffman.

If ownership can't afford Gonzalez, of course, that puts them in company with many other small-market teams. But it will be interesting to watch just what San Diego can spend-payroll was less than $44MM last season.


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34 Comments on "Why Padres Likely Won’t Sign Adrian Gonzalez"


Guest
5 years 5 months ago

This obviously hurts the Padres fans seeing their stars go, but The sooner the Padres trade A-Gon, the more they can get in return.

Yes, Gonzalez wants to be a life long Padre…Yes, the Padres want to keep Adrian Gonzalez throughout his career, but trading him for a number of good prospects is the right thing to do and Adrian certainly deserves a big pay day.

This isn’t the same market and management that kept Tony Gwynn for his whole career and was able to, I bet if the Padres had the money, they’d build around him. It will certainly be sad to see Gonzalez leave the Padres but will sure bring a glimmer of hope to those hungry for a Padres winning season, much less, World Series championship.

I just hope that everything works out on both fronts and that no one seperates with a chip on their shoulder.

5 years 5 months ago

No one seems to address whether or not the Twins are making the right decision locking Mauer into such a big deal.

I’m sure the Padres could sign Adrian, but what kind of team could they build around him? How many teams could build a good team around such a contract?

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

A team with a great system that could afford to trade players. That team also has to be willing to spend.

danks50
5 years 5 months ago

Mauer has not signed a contract and I have no idea why people are talking about the situation as if it is a done deal. I expect the Twins to get the job done but until it is signed and a dollar amount is known its pretty hard to figure out how much they need to spend.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

Glad you brought it up. If the deal is anywhere near a 10/$200 plus contract the Twins will regret it. The odds of Mauer catching 140 games per year over the next 10 are close to zero. His offense (aside from 2009) doesn’t play great at 1B or 3B (likely destinations in the future).

Look, Mauer is an amazing talent but those long-term deals NEVER work out for the clubs.

Utley4God
5 years 5 months ago

I think the Twins situation might be different. They are spending nearly 100mm this year on payroll so they have slightly more room for a big contract.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

Glad you brought it up. If the deal is anywhere near a 10/$200 plus contract the Twins will regret it. The odds of Mauer catching 140 games per year over the next 10 are close to zero. His offense (aside from 2009) doesn’t play great at 1B or 3B (likely destinations in the future).

Look, Mauer is an amazing talent but those long-term deals NEVER work out for the clubs.

GasLampGuru
5 years 5 months ago

It’s a shame, but it’s a virtual certainty that they’ll need to trade him sooner than later. I hope the rumors that the White Sox might offer up Gordon Beckham are true – that would make things interesting. I just hope Hoyer is smart and manages to get himself 3-5 young players to build around out of this deal. He needs to plug two immediate holes and get two prospects who can help by next season.

Ideally, they need to get plug one hole in the lineup (either 2B, C, or OF) and one rotation spot immediately, then add tone good SP or RP prospect and another everyday prospect.

lukemeister
5 years 5 months ago

Wait, the Twins offically have resigned Mauer? I don’t think it’s done yet… Twins fan here but just saying… did I miss something?

lakersdodgersyankees4life
5 years 5 months ago

na, nothing is done yet. It is just assumed by everyone it will get done.

I think it will, but when you are talking 8-10 years and at least 20M a year, a lot can go wrong..

5 years 5 months ago

Its obvious that they can’t resign him. This post is a waste of time, just trade him already.

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I read Heyman’s article from earlier today. Very thorough. Thanks. I am about 100% convinced at this point that there is zero chance the Red Sox are able to trade for Gonzalez. I agree, provided his first half stats are strong, he will be traded by July 31 this year. I cannot imagine a time when this guys value will be any higher for the Padres. Good for them, they deserve some good fortune and hopefully they can net some goooooood stuff for Gonzalez.

With regards to the Red Sox, their farm is inferior to that of many of these other 10-12 teams. Anything they do have happens to be a few 19 year olds. Casey Kelly maybe good, but a major position switch like that is risky.

Even if the Sox threw in Bucholz, Ellsbury, Bard, Kelly, it’s still not as good as a deal as some of these other teams could belt out. The Braves for example. They could use this guy in a major way. Not that they would but, Heywood alone would be a better package than above. I just did a little research on this kid Gordon Beckamn. Dang, now that’s some serious talent. The Orioles could pull this off without even batting an eye. So if the Sox put up a package of 4 or 5 prospects and current players, what does that do for the team. Ellsbury, leaves a 38 yo Cameron, Hermida and JD Drew with Ortiz as backup. Bard? Not sold on this guy yet. Sorry. Buchholz. I am not sold on him either. I’d expect Sox fans are smart enough to not insinuate that Paplebon be traded. That’s stupid. He costs more than Gonzalez.

If I had to guess where Gonzalez winds up. Braves makes a lot of sense and they have the right pieces to make it work without changing the team much. But following the Tex thing probably unlikely. Wren’s already skiddish about much of anything.

Met’s – Probably not.

White Sox – maybe

My money is on the Orioles believe it or not. The money is there, the prospects are definitely there. They could trade their 3 or 4 best prospects and they can still field an incredible, young team.

Mariners, which is possible and would be ridiculous.

Red Sox – Again everything points in their favor, but logistically, I can’t see how they can pull it off on their owns terms.

ilikebaseball
5 years 5 months ago

The Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the majors. Jed Hoyer knows this because, well, he helped build it. True, their talent is not all major league ready, but the Padres have some time before they need those prospects to be ready–the whole point of trading Gonzalez is that they aren’t going to be competing for a couple of years. Other teams will definitely be involved, I’m not saying it’s a foregone conclusion that he goes to Boston…but they have enough talent to get a deal done. Whether or not they are willing to give it up may be another story, though.

start_wearing_purple
start_wearing_purple
5 years 5 months ago

I don’t see anyone getting Gonzalez on their own terms. Especially the Red Sox. Hoyer knows the Red Sox farm and probably has a very strict line of what he wants. I can see the Sox keeping Westmoreland or Kelly, but not both.

vtadave
5 years 5 months ago

The Red Sox could easily pull off a deal, including all of the teams you mention. I’m not sure what you mean by “major position switch” in terms of Casey Kelly. Yes, like many guys, he was a two-way guy in H.S., but he’s a pitcher and a darn good one. Very attractive trade chip. Same with Ryan Westmoreland, Buchholz, Reddick, Bard, Kalish, etc. I think they’ll wait it out, but if they wanted to pull the trigger now, they obviously could, but it would gut the farm system. Perhaps in July, a package including Buchholz and guys not named Kelly or Westmoreland gets it done, but not now.

Braves could get it done certainly, but without Heyward? Maybe. A package involving Freddie Freeman and Arodys Vizcaino would have to tempt the Padres, though do they really need Freeman?

Baltimore? A rebuilding team trading Brian Matusz, Josh Bell, Jake Arrietta, and Zach Britton (top 4 per BP) for the right to pay a guy $18 million a year makes little sense to me.

I’m guessing the Braves will be holding onto Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward, and the White Sox seem unlikely to deal Beckham.

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

No way do the Red Sox throw Ellsbury, Bucholz, Bard, and Kelly in an A-Gon trade to rent him for a year and a half.

elclashcombo
5 years 5 months ago

I think it’s assumed that any team that gives up the top shelf of prospects for Gonzalez will also be signing him long term…which is what this article is essentially about – small market teams would be out of the running due to the fact that they cant afford him.

R_y_a_n
5 years 5 months ago

Paders probably don’t want Ellsbury being he is a Boras client and will get expensive in arbitration years.

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I think they want him but the Sox have to also not give too much.

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I think they want him but the Sox have to also not give too much.

R_y_a_n
5 years 5 months ago

Paders probably don’t want Ellsbury being he is a Boras client and will get expensive in arbitration years.

BigRedOne
5 years 5 months ago

Baseball players are complete morons. It is their faults there are no salary caps in baseball to give every city a chance to compete, but when it comes time when a hometown player like Gonzalez can not be afforded, they come out in droves to say what a travesty it is. You can’t have it both ways blowhards! You (the MLBPA) decided in 1994 to have a system of haves and have nots. You’ve made your beds and now you have to sleep in them

BigRedOne
5 years 5 months ago

If the Padres do end up giving Gonzalez a contract, he’ll end up requesting a trade in a couple of years because the Padres will have not money left to put a competitive team on the field. It’s lose-lose for small market teams.

the_show
5 years 5 months ago

The question for me is if Kenny Williams can get San Diego to take a deal that packages John Danks and prospects instead of Beckham and prospects.

Beersy
5 years 5 months ago

As a Padre fan, I hope not. It is very apparent that Gonzalez will be dealt and in my opinion the sooner the better. I don’t see why the Padres want to wait until the trade deadline. At his salary, the longer you give the new club with Gonzalez on there roster the more they would give up in return you’d think. I know Beckham, Kelly and Westmoreland should have great futures ahead of them, but these other clubs can’t expect to get a player like Gonzalez for nothing. He too has some good years ahead of him.

RiverKKiller999
5 years 5 months ago

Might as well trade A-Gon for a boatload of prospects or so and start over like the Pirates did last year.

Guest
5 years 5 months ago

you mean like the pirates do every year

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

Forget about the money – trading Gonzalez just makes sense for the Padres. They cannot field a competitive team with the talent they have now. Being able to raid some other teams lower minor leagues would be the best thing for the Padres. Focus on building an amazing young team that starts to play together in 2012.

bjsguess
5 years 5 months ago

Forget about the money – trading Gonzalez just makes sense for the Padres. They cannot field a competitive team with the talent they have now. Being able to raid some other teams lower minor leagues would be the best thing for the Padres. Focus on building an amazing young team that starts to play together in 2012.

johnsilver
5 years 5 months ago

Cannot see Epstein gutting the farm system and then paying Gonzalez anywhere near Tex and his 8/200M contract. If that is what Gonzalez is after, might as well just let him hit the market in 2 years and negotiate with him then, because other than the NYY (who already have a 1B and a future DH in ARod) they will more than likely not be involved and Epstein can bid on his man then, regardless if Gonzalez is traded before then or not to another team.

Hoyer in negotiations with Boston probably not be after the likes of an Ellsbury that will be getting expensive soon anyway and was already brought up here, but after people that Epstein is not going to move, like Ryan Westmoreland and Casey Kelley. Talent that is a couple years away, pretty much top shelf, cannot miss and the Padres will be able to low ball pay wise for at least 2-3 years.

Teams like the Red Sox with very deep farm systems are exactly the ones Hoyer will be targeting and not the Chisox, who are pretty thin overall, though do have top shining stars with people like Beckam that will make them even less encouraged to move them.

Hoyer should probably try and move Gonzalez sooner, rather than later. This latest outburst regarding the type of salary being sought is not going to make any GM’s any more forthright towards giving more up for sure for what looks like for right now, a 2 year rental to one of the game’s top 3-5 most expensive players after the 2012 season.

johnsilver
5 years 5 months ago

Cannot see Epstein gutting the farm system and then paying Gonzalez anywhere near Tex and his 8/200M contract. If that is what Gonzalez is after, might as well just let him hit the market in 2 years and negotiate with him then, because other than the NYY (who already have a 1B and a future DH in ARod) they will more than likely not be involved and Epstein can bid on his man then, regardless if Gonzalez is traded before then or not to another team.

Hoyer in negotiations with Boston probably not be after the likes of an Ellsbury that will be getting expensive soon anyway and was already brought up here, but after people that Epstein is not going to move, like Ryan Westmoreland and Casey Kelley. Talent that is a couple years away, pretty much top shelf, cannot miss and the Padres will be able to low ball pay wise for at least 2-3 years.

Teams like the Red Sox with very deep farm systems are exactly the ones Hoyer will be targeting and not the Chisox, who are pretty thin overall, though do have top shining stars with people like Beckam that will make them even less encouraged to move them.

Hoyer should probably try and move Gonzalez sooner, rather than later. This latest outburst regarding the type of salary being sought is not going to make any GM’s any more forthright towards giving more up for sure for what looks like for right now, a 2 year rental to one of the game’s top 3-5 most expensive players after the 2012 season.

disgustedcubfan
5 years 5 months ago

If I were the Padres G.M., I would trade Gonzalez during spring training this year. His value will never be higher than it is now. He still has 2 full years on his current, cheap contract.
Also, what if he blows out a knee sliding into 2nd base in April. The quality of prospects in a future deal will be way, way down.
Imagine what Gonzalez would mean for the White Sox this year. Put him at first, Konerko to D.H. and Andruw Jones to the unemployment office.
That would make the Sox clear favorites in the A.L. Central. Kenny also has that “win now” approach to most seasons.
Unfortunately for the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, Orioles or whoever, the Padres are going to completely gut your farm system to get the deal done.

optionn
5 years 5 months ago

Mauer and Gonzalez are both a massive waste of money at the price they are going to demand. I wouldn’t give either one more than 5 years at 15 million per. Yeah, they will be good for the next 2 or 3 years, but when you have a long term deal your vulnerable to a player losing bat speed, getting hurt, etc.

gutsgutslifelife
5 years 5 months ago

Absolutely right, I was going to post something similar. Why didn’t Rosenthal address that? I also suspect that Mauer’s Minnesota roots play to the MN fans really well, much better than Gonzalez’s SD/Mexican roots.