Orioles Notes: Scott, MacPhail, Guerrero

The Orioles avoided arbitration with Luke Scott today, but here's a few more tidbits from Charm City…

  • Scott's contract includes a standard awards package that could put another $350K into his pocket according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.
  • President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail talked to a group of Baltimore School of Law students today, and The Baltimore Suns' Keith Van Valkenburg has the goods. MacPhail acknowledged that the team will not "be buying No. 1 pitchers" because they're expensive and fragile by the time they hit free agency. "It's just a bad place for us to spend our money."
  • MacPhail said the team intends to stay the course and build from within, especially on the mound. "Given the economics of it, it's the only approach. It's not just the right approach, it's the only approach. We have to stick with it."
  • The franchise is not able to sustain a $140MM payroll, and MacPhail doesn't foresee a salary cap anytime soon. "If you want a cap, OK, but in my opinion that means you're going to have no baseball for at least a year. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking the players will cave."
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law tells Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com that he doesn't like what the Orioles have done this offseason. Vladimir Guerrero is, in Law's estimation, "in the toaster" even if he's not yet toast. Blocking Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie with Guerrero doesn't make sense to Law.


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82 Comments on "Orioles Notes: Scott, MacPhail, Guerrero"


Member
andrewrickli
4 years 4 months ago

Hmm. He won’t buy an ace? We might need to one day to contend if Matusz, or Arrieta don’t step up

Member
basemonkey
4 years 4 months ago

Think about how MLB service time works.

I think what MacPhail is referring to is the fact that, due to the way MLB service time and arbitration years work out, by the time players reach free agency, they are going to be about around 28-30 years old. In spite of that being the prime years for most players, with pitchers, there is a high chance that you really only get a couple years of peak performance, and then a tail off because of health. For pitchers, at, say, age 28, if they are a top tier arm they will probably command several years into their decline years at a very high premium rate.

One good recent example of that might be the Johan Santana deal for the Mets, which on balance, is pretty typical free agent timeline for a top tier pitcher. All of this said, you might get lucky and sign a special durable starting pitcher, but it’s a high stakes gamble.

Member
Ibleedblackandorange
4 years 4 months ago

Anyone in on trading for Liriano? Maybe put a package together….some combo of Pie or Reimlod and Tillman and maybe a mid-round pick? I think that would be a nice package for a number 1 or 2 ……

Member
Ibleedblackandorange
4 years 4 months ago

How about a package for Liriano? Some combo of Reimold or Pie and Tillman and maybe a mid-round pick for him…..That would be a nice way to round out our rotation…..

Thoughts?

Member
JOldewurtel
4 years 4 months ago

you can’t trade picks… and the Twins are loaded in the OF so they would have no need for Reimold or Pie…

Member
Ibleedblackandorange
4 years 4 months ago

I was making an assumption that people would know I meant trade the player from a mid round pick. We may not everything they need, but they could turn around and make a package trade as well…..liriano is something worth looking into

Member
basemonkey
4 years 4 months ago

Mid round picks don’t mean the same thing it might as in other sports that have some kind of way of establishing consensus because there is a amateur league, like, say, college basketball or football. With baseball, the fact that you can sign college guys and high school guys who face widely changing inconsistent competition, changes it quite a bit (not to even mention the international kids).

Member
Ibleedblackandorange
4 years 4 months ago

There are no guarantees no matter what the sport. Some first round picks in other sports have been busts just the same, no matter what the criteria is. I’m looking for a unique way to get liriano. Offer draftees, pie, reimold, tillman, arrieta…..I wanna win NOW! I’m tired of losing.

Member
basemonkey
4 years 4 months ago

I understand that you’re saying there are no gaurantees. That has nothing to do with my point.

I am just saying that, in baseball, the consensus of the value of a given draft pick varies more wildly than in other sports. So the way we might value one of our, say, 3rd round picks might have been valued as a 8th round pick by another club. So it’s not going to be as tempting as it might be, as, say offering a mid round pick.

In football or basketball, most teams’ draft day boards lineup more or less the same. How else can we explain in baseball how top flight 1st round picks who were projected as lottery picks drop all the time? In football and basketball, you don’t have a top 5 pick drop 10 slots. If it varies that much with the elite draftees, it varies even moreso with middle and late round picks.

And our, say, early round 2005 pick like Reimold is not quite the same as, say, the Dodgers 2005 later round pick of Josh Bell (4th Round), or the Yankees 8th round pick in 2005, and 2nd place runner up ROY Austin Jackson. That kind of variance in the middle rounds is not a garuantee or no-gaurantee thing. It’s the norm.

Member
andrewrickli
4 years 4 months ago

Amen. Maybe add bullpen help. Liriano would be a nice addition to the Oioles

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

ugh. just ugh

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

I’m totally with Law here. I’m sure the O’s will win more games in 2011, but they aren’t any closer to the playoffs

Guest
4 years 4 months ago

This was my main point, which was sort of subverted by the quoting in the article. Thanks.

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

is this actually keith? cool.

Hi keith

Member
OrangeCards
4 years 4 months ago

Just curious if that’s really you … Where do you get that Reynolds is old, just not a good player, or a butcher defensively?

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

well he’s not young, he’s offensively inconsistent, and has a -5.9 UZR/150 at 3B.

Member
OrangeCards
4 years 4 months ago

You’re right, he’s 27. I’d say he’s in his prime, which isn’t old IMO.

Eh, maybe. However, his down years are still a significant improvement over last year, anything Josh Bell would do this year, and better than any other 3B Baltimore had a shot of landing.

-5.9? Yeah, but a +2.5 last year and improving over the last three years.

If you want knock Vlad, go for it. But they gave up a middle reliever, with back potential, for a pretty solid 3rd basemen for the next couple seasons.

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

i do agree that he is in his prime, but i don’t think that helps the O’s as i still see them as the fourth or fifth team in the division.

yes he is an improvement over bell, but he’s moving from NL West to AL East. I dont see much of a bounceback season from him, though camden is a hitters park.

he’s had a -3.9, -11.0, and a -11.4 UZR between 2007-2009. He might have improved in 2010, or it could be an outlier

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

and i do agree that the deal was a steal, but its a move that a team closer to contention would make, not a rebuilding team

Member
OrangeCards
4 years 4 months ago

He’s in his prime, Law said he was old in his article. I see a big difference, that’s all.

You’re right. The NL West is full of solid pitching and big ball parks. The pitching talent in the AL is there, but he’s now going to be playing around 110 of his games in Tampa, Toronto, NY, Boston and Baltimore.

I’m not sure where you’re getting your fielding numbers. On Fangraphs, I see a UZR/150 of -11.3, -7.4 and +2.5 the last three years. I see an upward trend, you see an outlier in 2010. I’ve seen comments by scouts saying he’s improving, and the numbers seem to indicate that.

Anytime you can get a steal on a trade, I think you make it, contending or not. That said, he’s signed through 2013, and if the Orioles CAN’T contend by then, well, keep me away from bridges.

Member
Rabbitov
4 years 4 months ago

How is 27 not young? Sure he’s not a prospect. But most prospects haven’t hit 40+ HRs in the major leagues

Member
Omazing
4 years 4 months ago

Mr Law,
Texas drew less fans than Baltimore back in 2008:
24,320 per game (1,945,677, 25th overall in MLB).

In 2010 Texas attracted: 30,928 per game (2,505,171 overall, 14th in MLB).

Differential of 560,000 people. Still not making sense?

Don’t burn your hand taking the toast out of the toaster!

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

O’s aren’t nearly as good as the 2010 rangers

Member
Omazing
4 years 4 months ago

Possibly not, at least the 2009 O’s weren’t but the idea of bringing in superstars to attract a fan base (just like the Rangers did) & lead a team full of youth (just like the Rangers) makes sense in my mind but not Keith’s. I say it’s a great blueprint to follow especially when the O’s haven’t spent a dime the past 10 years. Where does that money go?

Member
OrangeCards
4 years 4 months ago

That’s why most Baltimore fans will disagree with Law. It isn’t as simple as playoffs or bust.

This is a franchise that hasn’t seen respectability in over a decade and you’re talking about playoffs?! Playoffs?! (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.)

I think most fans would be thrilled with a .500 season.

Member
FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
4 years 4 months ago

i would be too, if it meant +.500 in 2012. The O’s really aren’t setting themselves up for that though