Josh Johnson Rumors
We learned earlier today that Josh Johnson's season will end early because of a strained right forearm. It's been another disappointing season for the big right-hander, who posted strong peripheral numbers but a 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings after allowing 15 home runs. On to more Blue Jays links...
- The Jays were considering a qualifying offer for Johnson before the injury, but that's no longer an option, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets.
- GM Alex Anthopoulos will evaluate changes to the rotation this offseason, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports. Though Anthopoulos suggested that the 2014 rotation is likely to have more depth than this year's, it may not have a frontline starter given R.A. Dickey's performance and Brandon Morrow's injury this year, Nicholson-Smith says.
- The Jays haven't ruled out the possibility of re-signing Johnson, according to Nicholson-Smith, who adds that observers shouldn't be surprised to see the Jays consider trading for a starting pitcher in the offseason. The club doesn't have to lower payroll and could add salary in the right situation.
- Johnson spoke with Matt Harvey in the wake of his UCL tear to gave the young phenom words of encouragement and remind him that the injury might not require surgery, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Blue Jays right-hander Josh Johnson recieved some unfortunate news yesterday when he learned that his season is officially over. Gregor Chisholm and Evan Peaslee of MLB.com reported that a visit with Dr. James Andrews revealed that Johnson's strained right forearm wouldn't require surgery but would still put an end to his 2013 campaign.
It's hard to see Johnson, who hasn't pitched since Aug. 6, cashing in on a hefty deal this winter, given his overall struggles. Johnson gave Toronto 16 starts in total this season, racking up a 6.20 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent ground-ball rate. Optimists could look to Johnson's 4.61 FIP, 3.58 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA and expect a rebound. More than 18 percent of fly-balls allowed by Johnson left the yard -- an eight percent increase over the league average. Because of that unnaturally high rate, there's reason to believe more in his K/BB numbers than his home run totals. Johnson carried a 7.2 percent HR/FB ratio into the 2013 season.
It once seemed likely that the Blue Jays would extend Johnson the qualifying offer of nearly $14MM to ensure draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere, but that's far from a given at this point. It's not inconceivable that the 29-year-old could still fetch a decent offer in a thin pitching market. At this point though, it looks likely that the Blue Jays will get stuck with the bill on a player who has not panned out for them as they hoped when they acquired him along with Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle in last November's blockbuster with the Marlins.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson has cleared waivers, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. While this means that Johnson may be traded freely to any team, as Heyman notes, a trade remains rather unlikely.
Johnson's first season outside of the Marlins organization has had some moments of promise, but has largely been a disaster. After a dominating 2010-2011 stretch was interrupted by injury, Johnson put up a 3.81 ERA over a full 2012 (albeit with a below-career-average 2.54 K/BB ratio). Entering 2013, baseball was anxious to see how Johnson adapted to the AL East. While he has shown the ability to generate strikeouts on a consistent basis, Johnson has been hit hard. He currently sports a 6.20 ERA over 81 1/3 innings, and a WHIP of 1.66.
On the bright side, Johnson's 9.2 K/9 is the best of his career, and the 3.3 BB/9 he has surrendered is not out of line with his recent track record. Johnson's FIP is 4.62 and his xFIP is a much more promising 3.60. A brief glance at two other key metrics -- BABIP against (.356) and HR/FB% (18.5%) -- show that Johnson has probably been a bit unlucky this year.
The big righty is owed about $4MM more for the remaining of this season, and thereafter will enter free agency. With the Jays still weighing whether to extend Johnson a qualifying offer, and no team apparently willing to take on his full salary for the rest of the year, there does not seem to be much likelihood of a deal. Of course, Johnson's last start (5 innings, no earned) was an improvement, and a string of solid outings could restore some of his luster. Either way, Johnson promises to be one of the most interesting players to watch on the free agent market for 2014.
As always, you can keep track of players that have cleared trade waivers right here.
The latest out of the AL East...
- The Red Sox "may be willing to part with whatever it takes" in hopes of acquiring the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, a league source tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Still, the Marlins have pretty much closed the door on trading Stanton for now.
- The Red Sox should trade top prospect Xander Bogaerts and more to get Phillies lefty Cliff Lee, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, while Dave Cameron of FanGraphs gives his take on that idea.
- "The deals we’ve seen so far, teams have gotten a pretty good return," Red Sox Ben Cherington said of this year's trades, according to Tim Britton of the Providence Journal.
- The Rays acquired reliever Jesse Crain from the White Sox yesterday, with the return to be determined after the season. Crain has been out since late June with a shoulder strain, and the White Sox seemingly tried to rush him back into action. "Hopefully this time we'll take our time and be ready for the rest of the year," Crain said, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- Josh Johnson accepting a qualifying offer might be an unacceptable risk for the Blue Jays given their limited financial flexibility next year, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Speaking to Jeff Blair on the Fan 590 on Friday, Johnson's agent Matt Sosnick said he expects the Jays to make a qualifying offer and "hang compensation on" his client, affecting the pitcher's value in the free agent market. Sosnick didn't say it explicitly, but he seemed to imply they would accept a qualifying offer. Sosnick believes we're headed toward "the worst free agent pitching market in the last 10 to 15 years," but Johnson isn't likely to be a part of it.
- The Yankees are in danger of being "a club that isn’t good enough to legitimately contend and not bad enough to completely tear down," writes Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues. Axisa feels the Yankees will have to scrap their plan to keep the payroll under $189MM next year, if they re-sign Robinson Cano. Otherwise, they'll have to rebuild.
The Rays might be the only contending team that doesn't need to do anything at the deadline, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. As for the other 13 clubs that are still in the hunt, Cafardo runs down each of their needs in advance of Wednesday's deadline. The Cardinals would like to add a starter and perhaps a middle infielder, but are good to go with what they have. The Rangers got their big fish in Matt Garza, but they'll still be on the hunt for a right-handed hitting outfielder as their concern grows over Nelson Cruz. Meanwhile, not every club has the resources to make the upgrades that they'd like to. The Reds have three top arms on the shelf in Johnny Cueto, Jonathan Broxton, and Sean Marshall, but they might not have enough to obtain another. Here's more from today's column..
- Contrary to some reports, the Twins have received “numerous calls” on Justin Morneau, according to a major league source. The Blue Jays are one team that has expressed interest in the Canadian.
- Scouts and executives are split on whether the Blue Jays could sell off Mark Buehrle and/or Josh Johnson. Buehrle, 34, isn’t the same pitcher he used to be, but he shows that he has value for a contender with performances like Thursday against the Astros.
- Jose Veras has done well as the Astros' closer and he’s receiving a lot of attention from teams looking for a late-inning reliever. However, teams are wary of the fact that Veras hasn't had to deal with real pressure and the Astros' high asking price. “I don’t think you can make a blanket statement like he pitches for the Astros so there’s no pressure,” said an American League GM. “If you look at his performances, he comes in when there’s pressure and he handles it well.”
- Manny Ramirez was getting rave reviews in his first week for the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate, but he's now slumping. Texas isn’t bringing him up any time soon, and the Rangers remain focused on acquiring a bat.
- Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey is an under-the-radar guy whose performance is peaking and he's available since he'll be a free agent at season's end. It's a small sample size for sure, but Pelfrey has a 2.28 ERA in four July starts.
The Blue Jays currently sit 11.5 games out of first place in the AL East, but even if they become sellers, rival executives tell ESPN's Jerry Crasnick that the Jays aren't likely to trade Josh Johnson. The right-hander's trade value is too low currently thanks to his 5.16 ERA and trip to the disabled list earlier this year, so Toronto is more likely to hang onto him and make a qualifying offer following the season (Twitter links).
Johnson, 29, was acquired by Toronto in the offseason's blockbuster deal with the Marlins. He's disappointed thus far in terms of ERA, though his K/9 (9.1), BB/9 (3.1) and ground-ball rate (44 percent) are in the vicinity of his career norms. Both xFIP and SIERA feel his ERA should be in the mid-3.00 range. Johnson's chief problem has been a bloated homer-to-flyball ratio (14.7 percent) that's nearly double his career rate.
A one-year qualifying offer for Johnson would be worth approximately $13.8MM (as noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post this morning) -- a reasonable gamble for a pitcher with Johnson's track record of success (though he also has a storied injury history). Were he to decline the offer and sign with a new club, the Blue Jays would receive an additional first-round pick, and his new team would lose its first-round selection. Because the Jays were unable to sign 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford, Johnson declining and signing elsewhere would give them three picks in the first round of the 2014 draft -- the same scenario their division rivals, the Yankees, enjoyed in 2013.
Tim Dierkes recently listed Johnson in his glimpse at the trade market for starting pitchers (though it appears he's no longer in the running), and Johnson ranked ninth on the latest installment of Tim's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
Let's take a look at the latest news and notes involving the American League East:
- The Red Sox are open to trade market upgrades in the bullpen and at third base, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.
- One name on Boston's list of bullpen trade targets is the White Sox's Matt Thornton, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com (Twitter link). The Braves also have "limited" interest in the left-hander.
- Josh Johnson, set to become a free agent at the end of the season, has seen injury and poor performance affect his value to the point where it is difficult to see the Blue Jays pursue a multi-year deal with him, writes the Toronto Star's Richard Griffin. Johnson may be forced to accept a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, assuming he receives one, to rebuild his value for 2014, opines Griffin.
- The Phillies' Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz both could be on the Yankees' radar as they have a scout in Philadelphia today, tweets Jayson Stark of ESPN.
- The recently-released Miguel Olivo is not on the Yankees' radar, but first baseman Russ Canzler, who was designated for assignment yesterday, might pique their curiosity, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman (Twitter links).
- Earlier today, the Yankees added first base depth by claiming Travis Ishikawa off waivers from the Orioles. O's Executive Vice President Dan Duquette told reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, he acquired Eric Thames from the Mariners last week knowing he could lose Ishikawa to another team.
Here are a few trade notes from around the American League:
- As we approach the trade deadline with the Mariners looking more like sellers than buyers, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times took a look back at GM Jack Zduriencik's recent history at the deadline. Beginning with an ill-fated swap of a young Michael Morse for Ryan Langerhans and featuring the retrospectively painful Doug Fister deal, the net return to Seattle has not been terribly productive.
- This year, the Mariners could be in a position to deal some relievers. Last night, we took a look at FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal's breakdown of potentially available NL relievers. Tonight, let's look at the AL crop. From the M's, Rosenthal says that veteran lefty Oliver Perez is the most likely to be dealt, with Charlie Furbush and Tom Wilhelmsen also prime candidates. The latter two, however, will likely command a high price given that Furbush may just be reaching arbitration after this season as a Super Two, while Wilhelmsen will not reach arbitration until after the 2014 campaign.
- Rosenthal also pegs the White Sox and Astros as sellers with attractive bullpen pieces. Chicago could swing a trade for stud reliever Jesse Crain if he can return in time to prove his health; otherwise, both Matt Thornton and Matt Lindstrom could hold some appeal. (Both of the latter two pitchers come with club options for 2014.) For Houston, meanwhile, the prime trade chip among its relief corps is unquestionably closer Jose Veras, who is cheap, strikes out a lot of hitters, and has been solid in late-inning work this year.
- One other team that should look to the future, according to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, is the Blue Jays. With the club again fading after its recent resurgence, Morosi says Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos faces a "virtually impossible" task to right the ship before the trade deadline. Rather than selling out for this season, says Morosi, the Jays should look to shore up the team's rotation to make a run in 2014 and 2015.
- Sticking with the Jays, Morosi says that Josh Johnson -- occasionally noted as a potential trade candidate earlier in the year -- has been "perhaps the team's greatest disappointment this year." Johnson currently carries a 4.89 ERA in 53 1/3 innings; his walk rate is below his career average at 3.4 BB/9, though he is striking batters out at a strong 9.1 K/9 clip. At this point, Morosi suggests, Toronto may be best served by shipping Johnson back to the National League rather than looking to try and bring him back next year.
It appears that the Blue Jays weren't the only team interested in pulling off a Jose Reyes/Josh Johnson blockbuster this offseason. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com adds that the Red Sox also talked with the Fish regarding the Johnson, Reyes and possibly Emilio Bonifacio as well. Ultimately, the Red Sox backed off due to an unwillingness to consider parting with top prospect Xander Bogaerts.
It's understandable that Bogaerts, viewed by most as Boston's top prospect, would be a sticking point. The shortstop from Aruba is ranked higher than any player the Marlins received in Top 100 lists from Baseball America (No. 8), ESPN's Keith Law (No. 5) and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo (No. 20).
Johnson told Bradford on Wednesday that he, like others in the trade, was caught off guard by the trade. He had been preparing his wife for a trade during the 2012 season, but once the deadline passed, he thought that he and the Marlins' other star players would remain in Miami until this year's trade deadline at the very least:
"I wasn’t hearing one thing. My agent never said anything. Even when the trade went down he was like, ‘Let me see if this is real or not.' But by then it was already on MLB Trade Rumors and stuff."
The right-hander also noted that close friend Cody Ross told Johnson he would love playing in Boston. Johnson went on to say good things about the city when further questioned on the matter by Bradford.
The Blue Jays ultimately acquired Johnson, Reyes, Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle and John Buck from the Marlins in exchange for Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis and Anthony Desclafani.
However, as we learned last month, that trade may not have happened had the White Sox not reached a last-minute extension with Jake Peavy. Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos and White Sox GM Rick Hahn nearly completed a trade before Peavy signed his contract.
Here are a few notes from around baseball:
- The Blue Jays are already looking at an uphill battle to achieve a postseason berth, so much so that Dave Cameron of Fangraphs says it is not too early to wonder whether they will be trade deadline sellers. In particular, Cameron notes that the team may be forced to consider dealing soon-to-be free agent starter Josh Johnson. He adds in an audio chat, however, that there is little likelihood that a hypothetical Johnson trade would happen before mid-June. Cameron expanded upon the article in the chat, including discussion of the way that baseball's current rule system will continue to impact teams' trade incentives (beginning at around the 8:57 mark).
- The Rangers have used thirteen pitchers this season, ten of whom have never appeared in another MLB uniform, notes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Team CEO Nolan Ryan explains: "What you're seeing is a philosophy of pitching in our system and we've stayed the course and we are committed to developing pitching within our system." The current and future flow of pitching talent has enabled the team to pursue top line free agents like Zack Greinke without feeling compelled to overpay.
- With their solid start coming in spite of bad health, the Yankees could continue to tinker with their roster, writes Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues. In particular, Axisa says players like Casper Wells, Chris Nelson, and Humberto Quintero could all be easy ways to make small, but still-important upgrades.
- The Brewers are hoping to acquire a corner infielder/outfielder in the mold of Mark Kotsay, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. In 2011, Kotsay played in 104 games for the Brewers at all three outfield spots as well as first base.
- Neither the Braves nor Diamondbacks will end up as the loser of the deal that sent Justin Upton to Atlanta, Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com opined last week. Ringolsby says that Upton needed a change of scenery to an environment where he did not have to be "The Guy." With the Braves able to fully realize Upton's value, says Ringolsby, the Diamondbacks in turn were able to open playing time for other outfielders (specifically, Adam Eaton and Gerardo Parra) while impacting the team's clubhouse and building farm depth.