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Archives for December 2005

MetsBlog: Millwood Close To Signing With Mariners

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Now that the Burnett deal is done, Scott Boras can get to work with his stable of arms.  Seems that the Mariners got the ball rolling yesterday for Kevin Millwood at four years, $44MM.  If that’s the starting point, I’m frightened by where the bidding will end.

I would’ve expected this thing to drag on for at least a week, but MetsBlog is reporting that Millwood is close to signing with the Mariners.  Matthew Cerrone also mentions that "most believe Seattle’s offer is for four years."  I’m thinking it might take $48MM to make up for the lack of a fifth year.

There’s plenty of debate about which pitcher was the best on the market, Burnett or Millwood.  Many side with Burnett based on potential, while others cite Millwood’s longer track record of success.

But really, does Millwood’s track record indicate he has four solid complete seasons on the way?  Tough question.  Based on his last three seasons, he may be good for 180 innings in each of the next four seasons.  On the other hand, Millwood decided against elbow surgery at the end of a shaky season with the Phillies in 2004.  That problem could arise again; given that Millwood is on the wrong side of 30, he may be just as much of a health risk as Burnett.

Millwood’s HR rate is trending in the wrong direction, and he allows enough baserunners to push that 2.86 ERA up near 4.  I guess we’ll have to look back on this in 2009 or 2010, but I think Burnett is a better bet, especially since the money may be comparable.    

Twins Buzz: Mueller, Marte, Lowell

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It’s well known that the Twins lineup at present is woefully devoid of power hitters.  While noted Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman seems very receptive to a second baseman who can actually get on base, he acknowledges Luis Castillo’s complete lack of punch.

So who’s on the radar?  Well, you can cross Bill Mueller off the list.  He’s planning on signing with either the Dodgers or Pirates.  Mueller is a nice player, but he’s exactly what the Twins don’t need at third.  Mueller is a fragile on-base machine.  Sure, the team could use more players who take walks, but A)they don’t have the depth to back up Mueller if/when he gets hurt and B)he doesn’t produce the power they need.  The average AL third baseman slugged .428 this season, and Mueller’s career SLG is .430.  The Twins need above average power at the hot corner.

The Twins have long been interested in Mike Lowell, but he no longer has the power they’re looking for.  There’s no use acquiring him on the off chance he recaptures his swing in Minnesota.  The Twins already tried that with Bret Boone, and it was a waste of 53 at-bats.  (Of course, "many insiders believe the three-time All-Star Lowell will bounce back."  Curious that all of these insiders chose to remain anonymous.)

Hank Blalock could be had, and he’s still good for 20 HR without Ameriquest Field.  Given that it could take a Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker to convince Jon Daniels to part with Blalock, the deal is better left alone.  A lot of third basemen can hit .260 with 20 HR.

For example, Andy Marte would probably hit .260 with 20 HR (or better) if he was given 550 at-bats at third base for the Twins.  As mentioned yesterday, the Braves might part with Marte for Jesse Crain, Kyle Lohse, and prospects.   Crain was the author of a bizarre plumetting strikeout rate once he reached the Majors, but he still posted a 2.53 ERA in 106 career innings.  In that Hardball Times article, Gleeman mentions how Crain’s success is likely not sustainable.  Wonder if John Schuerholz learned his lesson with Dan Kolb?  Lohse is the definition of average, and his ERA could top 5 next season. 

While Marte is the perfect fit for Minnesota, it seems they’d have to pony up a lot more than Crain and Lohse.  If they really want Marte, it will probably require Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker.   

Prior For Abreu: Forget It

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One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu.  This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.

Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option.  According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.

While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution.  Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005.  Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low.  Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL.  The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons.  Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.

2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th

While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano.  Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.

Update: Kearns For Jerome Williams

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According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Austin Kearns trade talk has gotten serious and Jerome Williams, not Sergio Mitre, would be included in the deal.

This new incarnation of the deal seems more equitable.  Unlike Mitre, Williams has had success in the Major Leagues in his career.  He pitched 106 innings after being dealt to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  Williams posted a spectacular 2.10 ERA in five September starts. 

Thanks to Alex

Milton Bradley Dealt For Saarloos And Ramos?

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According to a source in Sacramento, the Dodgers have traded Milton Bradley to the A’s for pitchers Kirk Saarloos and Mario Ramos.  My source heard about Ramos’s departure via KXTV Channel 10 in Sacramento.  There’s a thread hopping over at MLB.com about the deal as well.

Bradley’s potential is unquestionable, and has been discussed on this site many times.  It’s a very Beane-like move to snag a player who the market has undervalued.

Despite winning ten games in 2005, Kirk Saarloos doesn’t figure to ever escape the fifth starter realm.  In every Major League trial, the 26 year-old soft-tosser has allowed tons of baserunners.  He’ll have trouble replicating his 4.17 ERA if he continues to post a 1.40 WHIP. 

Mario Ramos was snagged off waivers by Beane in 2003.  He’s been a mainstay at Triple A Sacramento, and hasn’t pitched well since 2003.

Thanks to Jerry

New Rumors: Luis Gonzalez, Brad Lidge

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In his latest article, Dayn Perry threw out some interesting trade bait names that I hadn’t heard too much previously.  Assuming Perry ran them by Rosenthal for a gut check, there could be some truth to these.

Brad Lidge to the Braves.  Now there’s an intriguing thought.  Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market?  One who no one even knew was on the market?  I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz.  I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus.

Luis Gonzalez to the Cubs.  This one occurred to me back on November 7th, but it was only idle speculation at that point:

"Speaking of Kevin Mench, why do teams desire him?  A redux of Luis Gonzalez would be better for the Cubs.  The deal would make sense for the Diamondbacks as well, as Gonzo and Shawn Green are blocking uber-prospect Carlos Quentin."

Troy Glaus to the Pirates.  Stranger things have happened, I guess.  The Bucs would at least have a nasty 1-2 punch in Glaus and Jason Bay.  Littlefield does have a stable of young arms with which he could broker a deal, if he’s willing to cough up the cash.

Kris Benson to the Royals.  Ugh.  Not so sure if Anna would sit well in Kansas City.  Benson as the de facto ace on a team going nowhere doesn’t sit well, either.

HoopsBuzz.com Launches

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I’m proud to introduce a new blog in our little family here.  It’s called HoopsBuzz, and you’ll find the latest basketball rumors and happenings there.

Jim is the main author, and I think you’ll find him eloquent and well-versed in the game of basketball.  Feel free to shoot him any hot hoops tips you’ve heard at hoopsbuzz@gmail.com. 

So, what are you waiting for basketball fans?  Bookmark HoopsBuzz and be the first to know what’s going on with the NBA and college hoops.

Today’s post concerns possible deals involving Michael Olowakandi and Earl Watson.

Carl Crawford On The Block?

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A source close to the Devil Rays’ scouting department filled me in recently on their outfielder extravaganza. 

It’s well known Joey Gathright is on the block.  If you’re looking for a scrappy player with no power who runs real fast, Gathright is your man.  It’s unknown whether Gathright can make his on-base skills shown at Triple A Durham translate to the big leagues, but some team besides the Rays will find out soon enough.  I’m not yet able to narrow down the list of his suitors to a single digit number.

Infinitely more interesting than Gathright is the possibility (albeit slim) that Carl Crawford could be dealt.  Crawford was "a little shocked" by Rocco Baldelli’s deal, and rightfully so.  After all, where was Baldelli while Crawford was busy being the 10th best LF in the game in ’05?  2006 could be the year Crawford busts out and hits 20 HR.

According to my source, the Angels are hot on the trail of Baldelli, Gathright, and Crawford.  The Rays are quite enamored with 22 year-old righthander Ervin Santana.  Santana had a solid rookie season in ’05, winning 12 games for the Angels.

Another team in the running for Crawford is the White Sox.  They’re not entirely sold on Brian Anderson in center field for a defending World Champion, and the Devil Rays are asking for Brandon McCarthy and/or Josh Fields. 

McCarthy pitched with a vengeance in September and October of 2005, tossing 43 innings of 1.69 ERA ball.  He led the Minor Leagues in strikeouts in 2004. 

Third baseman Josh Fields is in the Sox’s top ten prospect list for sure.  However, he was just OK at Double A Birmingham in ’05, hitting .252/.341/.409 in 477 at-bats.  Fields is a hard worker, but still needs plenty of seasoning in the minors.

Thanks to Matt

Austin Kearns For Sergio Mitre?

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George Ofman of WSCR The Score is reporting from the winter meetings that the Reds have offered Austin Kearns to the Cubs in return for Sergio Mitre and and a minor leaguer.  I was able to get in touch with Ofman, and he mentioned that the minor leaguer was possibly righthander Ricky Nolasco. 

Kearns is still living off an excellent 2000 at A ball and 372 fluky at-bats with the Reds in 2002.  He’s got 25 HR pop, but the rest of his appeal is pure perceived potential.  Ah, alliteration.

Sergio Mitre has had an uninspiring Major League career with the Cubs, going 4-10 with a 6.12 ERA in 120 innings.  If nothing else, Mitre can tell his grandkids about that miraculous 16 shutout inning stretch where he outdueled both Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett in 2005.  Seriously, though, Mitre keeps the ball down and could be passable fifth starter one day.

Ricky Nolasco was almost traded to Texas in a Rafael Palmeiro deal back in 2003.  Palmeiro vetoed the trade, and Nolasco remained in the Cubs’ system.  He has a solid curveball and decent sinker.  Nolasco will be 23 soon, and he posted spectacular numbers at Double A in 2005.  The starter had previously failed in a 40 inning attempt at Triple A Iowa in 2004. 

Thanks to Alex.

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