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Archives for December 2005

Juan Pierre Traded To Cubs

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Well, it’s official – Juan Pierre will be playing center field for the Cubs in 2006.  I reported this deal as done back on November 23rd, and I rightfully caught plenty of flak for it.  So I immediately dialed up Jim Hendry’s personal line and demanded that he deal two of five possible pitchers for Pierre so that I wouldn’t look bad.  Hendry complied, threw in Sergio Mitre, and here we are.  (I’m kidding, obviously).

I’ll discuss Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto in a separate post.  For now, I want to take a closer look at Juan Pierre and what he "brings to the table."  Cubs fans seem thrilled with this acquisition, so I asked myself, "What exactly does Juan Pierre do well?"

Getting on base

Pierre boasts a .355 career OBP.  In 2005, the average NL CF got on base at a .340 clip.  So Pierre is a tick above average in that department despite all of the cool drag bunts and slap infield hits.  Available CFs who got on base more frequently than 35% of the time last year include Jason Michaels, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. Brad Wilkerson can be expected to top .355 in 2006, and Milton Bradley will probably come close. 

Baserunning and stealing

Well, once Pierre does get on, he’s a terror on the basepaths.  Right?  In 2005, Pierre was excellent at going from first to third, succeeding 43% of the time (surprisingly, that compares well to the rest of the league).  On the other hand, he only succeeded going from second to home 38% of the time, which is a poor mark.  It’s a small sample (21 attempts), but Chris Speier might want to consider throwing up the stop sign occasionally when Pierre comes his way.

Oh, but let’s not forget the steals.  Man, does this guy steal bases.  He’s averaged 52 steals in his five full seasons.  Still, Pierre’s career success rate at stealing is just 74%.  According to Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus,

"If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all."

Hmmm.  So you’re telling me Baker should never attempt a single stolen base with Pierre?  Something tells me that’s not going to happen.

Defense

Ah, but with his blazing speed, Pierre surely is among the game’s top defenders.  Er, not so much.  Ever heard of Bill James’s Range Factor?  It’s calculated by adding up putouts and assists, multiplying by nine, and dividing by the number of defensive innings played.  Here’s how some regular CFs ranked in 2005 in Range Factor.

Rank Player Range Factor
1 Jeremy Reed 3.05
2 Damon Hollins 2.95
3 Nook Logan 2.93
4 Johnny Damon 2.93
5 Brady Clark 2.85
6 Brad Wilkerson 2.84
11 Milton Bradley 2.68
15 Kenny Lofton 2.53
26 Preston Wilson 2.27
27 Corey Patterson 2.23
28 Juan Pierre 2.21

There’s our man, dead last in the game, well behind several freely available CFs.  I could dig up some more defensive metrics to say the same thing; I won’t bore you with those here.  He’s not a good fielder.

Power

C’mon now, it’s Juan Pierre.  He’s got less power than Neifi Perez.

Durability

Oh, that’s it.  Juan Pierre shows up to work every day, doesn’t get hurt.  I guess that’s worth something.  It kind of reminds me of the blowoff classes I had in college where the teacher would make Attendance 10% of your grade.

Conclusion

Am I missing something?  Juan Pierre is basically a more expensive Scott Podsednik without the defense.  He should probably be a fourth outfielder on most teams.  Color me unimpressed by this trade.

Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close

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Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred.  Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.

Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton.  I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield.  Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ’pen.  The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005.  One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.

The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal.  Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief.  MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9.  As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea.  But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run. 

The Reds unloaded Sean Casey’s salary on the Pirates.  Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk.  Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great.  The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first. 

WSCR: Cubs Trade “Imminent”

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Several posters have alerted me to a George Ofman update on WSCR The Score in Chicago. Apparently Cubs GM Jim Hendry has pushed a scheduled 5:30 CST press conference to 8:00.  Ofman has managed to narrow down the trading partner to the Marlins or Devil Rays.

The Cubs have several trade candidates on those clubs: Juan Pierre, Aubrey Huff, and Julio Lugo are the likely suspects.  I’ll be at a poker game at 8:00, but I’m sure our loyal Cubs followers will keep you updated in the comments.

What’s Jason Michaels Worth?

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Jason Michaels just can’t get a break.  He was kicked around the minors long enough to lose the "prospect" label, and then he was branded a part-time player despite out-hitting many regular center fielders.  I touted Michaels in my recent Center Fielders With Potential article, noting his .380 OBP in 808 Major League at-bats.

After Kenny Lofton’s contract expired, Michaels finally figured to be pressed into full-time duty.  Of course, the Phillies decided to import Aaron Rowand instead.  Not a bad trade for the Phils, but now they have a clear surplus of center fielders.  It remains to be seen what kind of bounty Michaels will bring.

Odds are that Pat Gillick waits until most of the other CFs are off the market to make his deal for Michaels.  The Yankees are Pirates are already poking around.  The Cubs could get in on the act if Milton Bradley, Juan Pierre, and Brad Wilkerson fall through the cracks.

The Phillies have asked for Chien-Ming Wang from the Yanks, a very even trade as far as I can tell.  They were rebuffed, and then chuckled when the Pirates offered Mark Redman.  Some pitchers I’d consider comparable to Michaels are Jorge Sosa and Bruce Chen.  While Chen is certainly available, the Phillies don’t want him back for a second tour of duty.

RotoWorld On Burnett: “Very Good Signing”

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Whoever writes the blurbs for RotoWorld provided a breath of fresh air with their little editorial on the A.J. Burnett signing:

"Since no one else is saying it, we will: this is a very good signing for the Blue Jays. Burnett is risky, but he’s the one pitcher out there capable of being a dominant force for the next several years. If you’re going to take a chance, it’s much better to spend $11 million per year on Burnett than $7 million-$8 million on Paul Byrd or Matt Morris. And, frankly, everyone on TV and the papers expressing shock and disbelief at this deal just hasn’t been paying attention. This doesn’t raise the market for everyone else. Every team in MLB knew that Burnett could and likely would get this type of contract as a free agent. Deal with it. The money is out there, and it’s going to get spent."

I don’t know who the author of this blurb was, but I have a hunch it was executive editor Matthew Pouliot.  I find myself agreeing with his thoughts – with the marginal difference in salary between Matt Morris and A.J. Burnett so small, why not pay Burnett $11MM and see if he becomes an ace?  We already know what Byrd and Morris are going to do next year.   

Brad Wilkerson To The Blue Jays?

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The rumors just never seem to stop.  Here’s one I haven’t mentioned yet.

Apparently the Blue Jays might want to trade for Brad Wilkerson.  According to the Washington Post:  "Ricciardi has long coveted Wilkerson, who is coming off a down year in which he hit just .248 with 147 strikeouts. Ricciardi said his team might be able to deal pitching, and the possible offers include swingman Miguel Batista or 26-year-old starter Dave Bush."

It seems that Wilkerson’s strikeout tendencies are undercutting his true value.  That’s great for teams looking to acquire him.  Wilkerson is still young and has a .365 career OBP.  He’s got 20-30 HR pop.  He’s durable, averaging 537 at-bats over the past four seasons.  He’s versatile, able to play all three outfield positions and first base.

If Ricciardi has lost patience with supposed future star Alex Rios, Wilkerson would be a great addition in right field.  Sending two mediocre players like Bush and Batista over to the Nationals would be well worth it.

The Cubs are also interested in acquiring Wilkerson.

Jocketty Faces Burnett Aftermath

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A.J. Burnett slipped out of the Cardinals’ grasp because of The Fifth Year, and Lboros over at Viva El Birdos thinks the team was being cheap.  He mentions their new stadium, radio and TV deal revenue, and two postseasons in a row.  Given that A.J. Burnett was the only free agent pitcher out there who could be a difference-maker, what are Cards fans to do?

Well, they shouldn’t count Walt Jocketty out just yet.  While perhaps not the best trade in his history, Jocketty did make a move on one of last Javieyear’s hot commodities, Mark Mulder.  He’s fully capable of doing the same thing for Javier Vazquez.  The Indians appear to be the front-runner for Vazquez’s services, but the Cards might be able to pull something off.

After a perusal of the Cardinals’ Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, only Anthony Reyes is Major-League ready among a thin crop.  It seems that Reyes, and only Reyes, could bring Vazquez, or any other name starting pitcher, to St. Louis.  It wouldn’t be the first time Jocketty dealt a near-ready righthanded starter for a proven veteran version.  However, should the Snakes insist on a position player (they wanted Coco Crisp), Vazquez won’t be joining the Cardinals.  If Jocketty can’t come up with his #2 starter, expect Jason Marquis to remain with the club.

Angels Pursuing Joey Gathright, Toby Hall

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According to Ken Rosenthal, "The Angels are believed to be talking to the Devil Rays about a deal for center fielder Joey Gathright and/or catcher Toby Hall."

We reported yesterday that the Angels were hot on the trail of Tampa Bay outfielders.  While our source named Ervin Santana as likely trade bait, Rosenthal thinks young infielders and/or catchers would be sent over.  It does make sense that Jeff Mathis would go to the Rays if Hall is dealt.  Mathis had a great age 22 season for a catcher at Triple A Salt Lake.  It is expected that Steve Finley will be benched or traded to clear a spot for an imported outfielder like Gathright.

Rosenthal also mentions, "acquisition of Hall almost certainly would end the chances of free-agent catcher Bengie Molina remaining with the Angels."  An interesting scenario could develop if Molina decides to play it safe and accept arbitration, which is still a possibility.  Last year, Placido Polanco unexpectedly accepted arbitration with the Phillies, creating an awkward situation with Chase Utley ready to play every day.  Polanco was quickly dealt for just Ugueth Urbina. 

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