Commenting Policy
Getting a lot of emails about the comments becoming too unruly. I used to read every comment up until about a month ago, when it began to just kill my inbox. I still flip through them usually but certainly don’t read every discussion.
I don’t know. I like to keep restrictions to a minimum. At first you didn’t need to register to comment here. That got out of hand after a few months, and now I require registration like most sites.
As far as rules: just be respectful. Don’t call people names, don’t insult them personally if you don’t agree with them. Basically, behave like adults. Do you need more than that? Do you want someone policing the comments and bans handed out?
Matsuzaka Talks Breaking Down
The outlook is not so good for the Red Sox to sign Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that talks are "breaking down." Silverman’s source places to blame on agent Scott Boras, who apparently doesn’t feel like making a deal. As Buster Olney notes, that certainly sounds like it originates from the Red Sox.
Olney also notes that the Sox will probably provide what amounts to a blank check to Roger Clemens should they fail to sign Matsuzaka. While there has been some talk of Clemens pitching for all of 2007, his agent is pushing for another shortened season.
To me that makes the Yanks more likely to be players, as by June one of Wang, Johnson, Mussina, Pettitte, or Igawa could certainly be injured. If someone had to be bumped to accomodate Clemens for one year, who would it be?
Gagne To Giants?
Evan Brunell has an unconfirmed report that Eric Gagne will sign with San Francisco for $6MM guaranteed. I figured it’s definitely worth a mention.
As I said earlier, that is a lot of guaranteed cash for a guy who’s thrown 15 innings over the past two seasons. On the other hand, the Giants probably didn’t want to bring Keith Foulke back around.
Gil Meche Projection
I have a 2007 projection up at RotoAuthority for new Royals ace Gil Meche. I’ve also included projections from three other sources for comparison.
Cubs Sign Jason Marquis
As has been rumored for a while now, the Cubs have signed 28 year-old righthander Jason Marquis. The Tribune says three years, $20MM, while the Post-Dispatch says three years, $28MM.
I think this is a bad signing. I was actually naive enough to suggest yesterday that Marquis would draw a tiny commitment of just one year and $3MM – after all, he is coming off a 6.02 ERA. I figured it would be comparable to the Kip Wells deal – too much uncertainty to guarantee more than a year.
The Cubs didn’t feel that way; now it’s up to Larry Rothschild to coax three league average innings out of Marquis. Apparently eating innings, no matter how poorly, is worth $6-9MM per season.
UPDATE: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick says it’s for three years and $21MM.
Cardinals Checking On Carl Pavano
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals are "doing some advance work to check out Carl Pavano‘s physical status." He later notes:
"PLEASE do not say something like, ‘Bernie says the Cardinals are getting Pavano.’ Because I’m NOT saying that."
It sounds like the Cards are at least kicking the tires a little bit. Pavano makes $10MM in 2007 and $11MM in 2008 with a $13MM club option for 2009 with a $1.95MM buyout. Basically, he’s owed $23MM for his age 31-32 seasons.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Tomo Ohka
With seven teams seriously interested, it's time to take a closer look at free agent starter Tomo Ohka.
Ohka made $4.53MM this year. He turns 31 in March and is seeking a three-year commitment. RotoWorld names the Nationals, Mariners, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Pirates as interested parties. I've also heard the Cardinals mentioned; they seem to succeed with this type of pitcher.
Ohka is a guy who pitches to contact and typically shows good command. He's a flyball pitcher who mostly throws fastballs and sliders.
Some past history on Tomokazu Ohka (source: RotoWire):
1998:
The Red Sox purchased the 22 year-old's contract from the Yokohama Baystars of Japan's Central League. He'd worked mostly in relief in Japan.
1999:
He excelled at Double A and Triple A, going 15-0 across the two levels for the year. A 5.7 K/BB ratio in Triple A inspired the Sox to call him up in July to face the Marlins. He pitched poorly in two starts and later six relief appearances. He earned the team's Minor League Pitcher of the Year honor.
2000:
Ohka didn't break camp with the Red Sox; he began the year at Pawtucket. In June, he tossed a perfect game for the Triple A club. A few weeks later, he earned a suspension for an off-field fight with South Korean Sun-Woo Kim. Kim's still around, so perhaps they'll clash again.
Trade rumors swirled about, but Ohka stayed put and eventually made 12 starts for the Sox with a 3.12 ERA.
2001:
He broke camp with the Sox, but was sent back down in May when David Cone temporarily healed. Ohka bounced back and forth, filling in for Cone, Pedro Martinez, Frank Castillo, and Bret Saberhagen. Ohka pitched poorly. At the trading deadline, he was sent to the Expos for Ugueth Urbina. He posted a 4.77 ERA in 10 starts for Montreal.
2002:
This was Ohka's breakout season, as he won 13 games with a 3.18 ERA in 31 starts. It was a strong Montreal staff, with Javier Vazquez, Bartolo Colon, Carl Pavano, Tony Armas, and Masato Yoshii contributing. One note is that Ohka received a six-game suspension for throwing at Andruw Jones after Jones hit two home runs off him. In November, Ohka pitched for an MLB All-Star team that played in Japan.
2003:
An uneventful but healthy season, as Ohka won ten games with a 4.16 ERA in 34 starts. Well, there was one event.
2004:
He began the season as the #3 guy behind Livan Hernandez and Zach Day. In June, a Carlos Beltran liner broke his right forearm; Will Carroll described it as a "particularly nasty fracture." He was activated from the DL in September. On the season, he posted a fine 3.40 ERA despite his weakest strikeout rate and a lot of baserunners.
2005:
With a metal plate and screws in his forearm, Ohka was not the same pitcher in April. His velocity was down and he allowed more flyballs. Frank Robinson moved him to the bullpen in May but he found his way back once John Patterson got hurt.
In June came Ohka's famous diss of Robinson – he turned his back on his manager when he came out to make a pitching change. Robinson had to grab the ball out of his hand. The Nats fined him and traded him five days later to the Brewers for Junior Spivey. This despite his 3.33 ERA in nine starts on the season and a year and a half of service time left. Upon joining the Brewers, Ohka posted a 4.35 ERA in 20 starts, including his first shutout.
2006:
Shoulder discomfort popped up on May 1st; Ohka was showing reduced velocity from a strained rotator cuff. The partial tear led to a DL stint. He returned from rehab in July; Will Carroll said his velocity looked good. A hamstring injury in September ended his season. The Brewers declined to offer him arbitration, and here we are.
Orioles Sign Jay Payton
Last night, the Orioles reached a verbal agreement with 34 year-old Jay Payton to man left field. It’s a very Orioles move – miss out on all the big fish, gotta sign some kind of warm body. The deal is for two years and $9.75MM.
While that may be an OK price, this is left field in the American League we’re talking about. You have to hit .280/.347/.449 to earn a C grade. Payton hasn’t posted an OBP that high since Colorado in ’03; he may be capable of slugging .449.
This type of signing frustrates me, as it doesn’t indicate any sort of coherent plan. At least with the Cubs, they are going all in for 2007. They might not have the right hand with which to do so but they have made a decision and are acting on it. That’s rare in Cubdom. But the O’s remain the same – a mix of promising youth and mediocre vets that will probably earn them fourth place.
Baltimore’s outfield is now set with Payton in left, Corey Patterson in center, and Nick Markakis in right. Overall, it looks decent.
Braves Trying To Get Rocco Baldelli
As you may know by now, John Schuerholz is working on a trade for Devil Rays outfielder Rocco Baldelli. Baldelli would play left field for the ’07 Braves, and then could shift back to center in 2008.
David O’Brien of the AJC cautions that the Braves are just one of several teams (White Sox, Orioles) going after Baldelli. The general structure of the deal is thought to be catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Yunel Escobar, and a starting pitcher. The Rays want that pitcher to be Chuck James, but the Braves might only be open to Kyle Davies.
Saltalamacchia turns 22 next May; he struggled in 92 Double A games this year. In his defense, he dealt with a wrist injury and also came on strong in July and August. Plus, he hit .565 in the AFL before straining a groin muscle. Salty is a switch-hitter with a sweet swing; he was thought to be untouchable last winter.
Escobar, a Cuban defector, turned 24 in November. His bat didn’t impress at Double A, but he has solid tools and plays decent defense at short.
James you already know. In examining his Major League work a few months back, I decided that his stats were quite inflated and he’s probably more of a 4 ERA guy. Still, that’s nothing to sneeze at. He’s a flyball pitcher with a fantastic changeup.
Davies turned 23 this year. He’s struggled in 151 Major League innings, but pitched well at Triple A as a 21 year old.
Baldelli is just 25 and has 384 Major League games under his belt. He showed nice power growth this year and has a favorable contract.
Relief Is On The Way
Couple of reliever signings occurred today.
The Cards inked righty Russ Springer to a one-year deal for $1.75MM. Can’t complain about that one in a world where Mike Stanton got two years. The Devil Rays may have to focus on David Riske now.
Meanwhile, the White Sox locked down Mike MacDougal for three years and $6.45MM with a club option for 2010. The idea here is to buy out his arbitration years and perhaps first year of free agency. If healthy, he provides a viable alternative should Bobby Jenks be unable to pitch the ninth inning.