The Yankees have signed Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal for $16MM with a player option for 2008. Take that, Thomas Wolfe.
Looks like it’s officially time for the Astros to move on to other options. Will someone pry away Jason Hirsh?
Archives for December 2006
Inge, Byrd, Kline Sign
The Detroit Free Press indicates that a four-year extension for third baseman Brandon Inge is near. It could be worth $24MM.
Inge turns 30 next May. In 2006, he posted a career high .463 SLG in 542 ABs. However, his OBP dipped to .313. By comparison, the average AL 3B hit .269/.338/.442 this year. The main problem was that Inge’s walk percentage dropped from 10% in 2005 to 7% this year. However, Inge’s fine glovework at the hot corner probably elevates him to the status of above average overall.
ESPN reports that southpaw reliever Steve Kline will stay with the Giants on a two-year, $3.5MM deal. Kline, who is 34, has poor control and a weak strikeout rate. He does keep the ball on the ground generally and is a little better against lefties.
The Rangers signed 29 year-old outfielder Marlon Byrd to a one-year contract. Byrd typically struggles to post a .700 OPS, so he’s probably seen as a fourth outfielder. He can play all three outfield positions.
Finally, the Royals signed southpaw John Bale, who turns 33 next May, to a two-year, $4MM deal. Bale spent the last two seasons in Japan. In 2006, Bale posted a 2.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 in 43 innings. Interesting side note: Bale was traded by the Orioles to the Mets in 2002 for $50MM man Gary Matthews Jr.
Carroll On Matsuzaka
Will Carroll has spoken to several Boston sources on the topic of signing Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those sources are said to be pessimistic about Boston’s chances at signing him. I have read the same in various Boston newspapers.
Carroll also adds that Matsuzaka will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2008 season, should he return to Japan. The bold letters are from Carroll, to help correct the misinformation that Matsuzaka would only owe the Lions one more season.
Cubs Close To Signing Jason Marquis
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed a rumor Bruce Levine first reported yesterday – that Jason Marquis is close to signing with the Cubs.
It’s easy to look at Marquis’s 6.02 ERA and question why any team would give him a million or three to pitch next year. However, it should be noted that Tony La Russa left Marquis in to save the bullpen on two occasions – June 21 against the White Sox (13 ER in 5 IP) and July 18th against the Braves (12 ER in 5 IP). Let’s take those two starts out, for the sake of argument.
With two slaughter starts included: 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB
With two slaughter starts removed: 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.24 K/BB
Alright, that experiment still shows that Marquis had an awful year. But at least it was somewhat less awful than it looked. Think Steve Trachsel/Jamey Wright territory, with Miguel Batista upside.
We can see that compared 2005, Marquis’s HR prevention and control worsened a bit (although not terribly so). The biggest difference was a groundball percentage that dropped from 52% to 43%. He needs to get the sink back – Cesar Izturis can do the rest.
Marquis isn’t a great pitcher. His strikeout rate is dangerously low. But he could be good for 200 innings and a 4.50 ERA – I think there’s at least a 50% chance of that. 4.49 was the National League average ERA in 2006. It’s a gamble that’s worth the $3MM he’ll probably want.
Eric Gagne To Sign Today?
Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe reports that Eric Gagne should decide whether to become a Red Sox, Indian, or Ranger today.
Edes says the odds favor the Indians and Rangers, who seem more willing to guarantee Gagne $5MM. Balking at such a request is understandable given how little Gagne pitched during the 2005-06 seasons. The Dodgers paid him $18MM for 15.1 Major League innings over that period.
Devil Rays Target Relievers
Marc Topkin writes that after losing out on free agent closer candidate Octavio Dotel, the Devil Rays are now focused on signing either Russ Springer or David Riske.
Springer turned 38 recently, while Riske turned 30. Springer has been tough to hit in recent seasons out of the Astro pen, but has been prone to the gopher ball. Riske’s always been very difficult to hit, despite a significant strikeout rate decline starting in 2005.
It seems likely that if one of these relievers is signed, he would become Tampa Bay’s new closer. Fantasy leaguers, take note.
Topkin also mentions that Rocco Baldelli is drawing interest from the Braves, Orioles, White Sox, and Tigers, but no deal is close.
Astros’ Options Remain Wide Open
One way or another, Tim Purpura is going to acquire a decent starting pitcher.
The Houston Chronicle reports that Purpura is still in touch with the White Sox, but has a host of other active scenarios as well. In the article, Purpura goes to great lengths to confirm that starter Taylor Buchholz is healthy without actually confirming that he could be involved in a trade. It remains possible that the Astros trade for Jon Garland.
They won’t, however, acquire both Garland and Andy Pettitte. The Astros still have a one-year, $12MM offer out there. The Yankees have already blown that away, even offering to add a second year. It seems clear that Pettitte will only stay in Houston for geographical reasons. Richard Justice
Check out Jose de Jesus Ortiz’s take on the whole Garland thing yesterday. He initially reported the deal was close, based on info from Astros President Tal Smith.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post suggests that the Astros could take another run at Jason Jennings, perhaps offering Jason Hirsh, Willy Taveras, and Dan Wheeler. As I said earlier, that far outweighs Freddy Garcia’s price and they are comparable pitchers.
Time To Think About Carlos Zambrano
By waiting until after the season to work out an extension for third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs probably cost themselves millions of dollars. Luckily, they still got him for less than the going rate in the end.
Surely Jim Hendry and Co. are wary of a similar scenario occurring with staff ace Carlos Zambrano. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes:
"Talks have yet to begin on Zambrano’s extension, and probably won’t get serious until the start of spring training if the past is any indication."
While some feel that Zambrano’s price rose to over $100 million because of recent free agent signings, I would counter that it was $100 million all along. Compare Zambrano to Barry Zito as the Tribune did.
1. Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.
2. Zito has six straight seasons of 200+ innings; Zambrano has four.
3. In their careers, Zambrano has been tougher to hit, better at home run prevention, and has a significantly better strikeout rate.
4. In peripheral stats, Zito’s only advantage is mildly better control.
Say for the sake of argument that Zito gets six years, $100MM. In my mind that makes Zambrano in line for at least a seven year, $130MM deal. That would be $18.5MM annually. Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald even suggests Zambrano could be a $20MM player.
Perhaps the Cubs should move to sign Zambrano before Zito signs, as Zito’s contract could be a point of reference for agent Barry Praver. At least Jim Hendry can be relieved that Zambrano fired Scott Boras at the beginning of this year.
Rangers Rotation Options
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, via MercuryNews.com, is reporting that Mark Mulder has received an offer from Jon Daniels and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were rumored to be in the forefront of the Barry Zito race, but seem to be coming to grips with the idea that they may not be able to commit to what Zito will probably yield this off-season. The Rangers have also shown interest in Andy Pettitte, but that seems like a bit of a long shot with the Astros and Yankees as the favorites to land him.
If the Rangers could actually pull off signing Mulder and Zito in the coming days/weeks, they’d be added to a rotation that currently includes Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood. First, they’ve got to fend off the Mets, and all the other suitors, for the rights to Zito.
NOTE: I apologize for the typos. Evan Grant writes for the Dallas Morning News, but the link went to the MercuryNews.com site. Also, obviously, Jon Daniels is the Rangers’ GM, not Jeff Daniels.
Royal Treatment For Dotel
Octavio Dotels has turned down an offer from the Boston Red Sox, according to the Kansas City Star, and is about to officially sign with the Kansas City Royals for a 1-year/$5MM contract that may be bumped up to $7MM after incentives. Dotel will likely replace Ambiorix Burgos as the front runner for the Royals’ closer position in 2007.
This will probably push the Sox to go after Eric Gagne a bit more in the coming days. The Boston Herald is reporting that Gagne is still looking for an annual salary of over $5MM.
