Yankees Unlikely To Sign Sabathia This Winter?
Newsday’s Ken Davidoff has an interesting take on the Yankees’ chances of signing CC Sabathia this winter. He finds the Yankees an unlikely match for the big lefty, for a couple of reasons.
By Davidoff’s estimate, the Yankees will have over $60MM off the books for ’09 even if they bring back Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte. Breaking off a third of that for Sabathia wouldn’t seem to be an issue, but that does not seem to be Brian Cashman’s preference. Davidoff puts the chances of Cashman re-signing at about 65%, by the way.
The other issue is Sabathia’s preference. Sabathia has some talkative friends, because they’re always being anonymously quoted. Davidoff talked to "two people familiar with his thinking," who see him choosing the NL and the West Coast. The Dodgers are named as his first choice.
Perhaps the Yankees will sign a decent starting pitcher who does not require a $100MM outlay – Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster, for example.
State Of The Astros
The Astros are currently 12.5 games out in the NL Central and 8.5 games back in the wild card race. However, they won’t be throwing in the towel yet. Said owner Drayton McLane:
"I don’t like to give up, and I think it’s too soon to give up on this season…The Astros have been for several years a second-half team, and we’re optimistic we can start playing much better baseball."
I am not a fan of this logic, that something about putting on an Astro uniform makes a team play poorly in the first half and incredibly in the second. Even if the Astros had the exact same players from 2004-05, I still wouldn’t buy the logic. Similarly, I hate it when announcers talk about a veteran pitcher’s career performance against a certain team. It means nothing, given the roster turnover.
Moving on, the above-linked article from Brian McTaggart suggests the Astros are unlikely to trade any high-priced veterans. It sounds like Ed Wade might have to rely heavily on free agency to build a winner in ’09. I could see a big-ticket starting pitcher – here’s the ’09 free agents list.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Burnett, Ibanez
Ken Rosenthal’s Full Count video Saturday covered many interesting topics; yesterday he put the info into column form and added even more.
- Same old story with Adam Dunn – he’s just not drawing much interest. Even with the whiffs and ugly defense, this is surprising to me. Rosenthal says the Reds "will take a considerable risk" if they offer Dunn arbitration after the season and he accepts. Would having Dunn on a one-year deal at market price really be so bad?
- Rosenthal says "it remains to be seen whether Jim Bowden’s authority will be compromised" in the wake of his involvement in the FBI’s bonus-skimming investigation. The Nationals have a couple of mildly interesting starters to shop in Tim Redding and Odalis Perez, plus perhaps the top righty reliever in Jon Rauch. Maybe Rauch will be packaged with a starter.
- The Angels will try to retain Francisco Rodriguez after the season.
- The Blue Jays started A.J. Burnett on three days rest in an attempt to maximize his starts before the trade deadline, though the J.P. denies it. Burnett responded well against the Yankees. Rosenthal wonders whether he would abandon his opt-out clause if his contract was extended through 2011 upon a trade. A dissenting opinion – Jon Heyman talked to one GM who does not expect Burnett to opt out.
- The D’Backs apparently do not see Raul Ibanez as much of an upgrade over Chad Tracy. However, Jack Magruder wrote Saturday that the Mariners and D’Backs had discussions on Ibanez.
- The Dodgers are still interested in Jack Wilson.
- Rosenthal says some teams are skeptical that the Pirates would offer Damaso Marte arbitration after this season. Why wouldn’t they? The Red Sox are interested in the lefty.
MLB Investigating Betting, Bonus-Skimming Scandals
Cheers to MLB for following George Mitchell’s suggestion and creating an investigative unit. It’s already helping to crack down on a couple of serious scandals, along with the FBI. I also like ESPN’s hiring of Mark Fainaru-Wada and T.J. Quinn. If I had something to hide, I wouldn’t want these guys on the case.
First we had several White Sox employees canned in May for possibly skimming bonuses intended for Dominican prospects. Then a week ago the L.A. Times said at least one GM "has already come under suspicion."
On Saturday, the Fainaru-Wade/Quinn team broke the news that Nationals GM Jim Bowden and special assistant Jose Rijo are under investigation for possible roles in the scandal. Bowden says he had no role and is not under suspicion, though. Rijo says he and Bowden are both "clean as a whistle" and "clean as Irish Spring soap."
Meanwhile SI.com’s Jon Heyman discovered that Orioles scout Alan Marr was fired for ties to sports betting. Other scouts may be implicated, but there’s no indication of game-fixing. Heyman believes Marr was tied to a bookmaking operation.
Twins Inquire On Adrian Beltre
The Twins’ interest in Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre has graduated from internal to external, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Neal is not sure how far the two teams got in their trade discussion.
Beltre, 29, is hitting .259/.330/.440 in 388 plate appearances this year. He’s earning $12MM this year and the same in ’09. His limited no-trade clause allows him to block deals to eight clubs. Complications: he’s playing through a painful wrist injury, but also being called out by anonymous team coaches for not taking extra batting practice.
On the Twins’ side, free agent signee Mike Lamb has proven to be a bust, but call-up Brian Buscher is hitting a surprising .316/.341/.418 in 85 plate appearances. Baseball Prospectus projected him at .245/.309/.358 coming into the season.
Week in Review
Here’s a look back at the biggest stories MLBTR covered for the week of July 6 – 13:
- The Brewers completed a deal for C.C. Sabathia, sending Matt LaPorta and other prospects to Cleveland in return. Sabathia’s looked great so far, and LaPorta’s already making an impact in the Indians minor league system. Looks good for both teams right now if you ask this guy.
- The Cubs answered their division rival quickly, landing Oakland ace Rich Harden along with Chad Gaudin in exchange for Matt Murton, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and Josh Donaldson. Harden was brilliant in his debut. I think this could be another win-win trade, if Harden stays healthy.
- It was once again made clear that no one has interest in Barry Bonds, even at this juncture of the season. Seems like we’ve heard this once or twice before…
- It was a long time coming: The Mariners released Richie Sexson. Could the Yankees be interested?
- With likely season-ending injuries to both Eric Byrnes and Moises Alou (possibly career-ending in Alou’s case), both the D’Backs and Mets are in the market for corner outfielders. Raul Ibanez should be appealing to both clubs, though the Mariners may not be interested in trading him, Jim Riggleman says. Carlos Beltran voiced his support of acquiring Ibanez. I personally don’t see why Seattle wouldn’t pull the trigger, but I’m not a Major League GM, I suppose.
- Tim updated both the first base and catcher markets in the Trade Market Series.
- The Twins had internal discussions on Adrian Beltre. A third base upgrade would certainly be nice, but they’re not known for making big moves at the deadline. Could Bill Smith change that reputation in his first year as GM?
Odds and Ends: M’s, Giants, Blanton, Maddux
Nothing major yet this afternoon, but a few minor issues worth noting:
- Danny Knobler from CBS Sports writes that former Tigers and Padres GM Randy Smith is now in the running for the GM opening in Seattle after the season. He’s been commended for his scouting work with the Padres recently.
- Mark Dent from MLB.com tells us that Mariners manager Jim Riggleman feels the M’s will be cautious with trade talks, and goes as far as saying he expects very little change. Riggleman says they "won’t move players just to move them." Does this seem like the right strategy for a team with the second-worst record in baseball?
- Chris Haft from MLB.com writes that the Giants have signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Rafael Rodriguez for a $2.55MM bonus.
- Joel Sherman weighs in with his thoughts on the current pitching market, particularly why Joe Blanton is still appealing despite a poor start. He also discusses the dilemma the A’s, Rangers, and Yankees all have in deciding whether to buy or sell over the next few weeks.
- Mark Bowman feels that a trade sending Greg Maddux back to Atlanta is unlikely.
Olney’s Latest: Sexson, Ibanez, Ortiz
Buster Olney’s blog post is overloaded with rumors today. Here’s a rundown:
- Olney’s Speculation: Will the Red Sox will express interest in Khalil Greene with Julio Lugo on the DL for 4-6 weeks? Olney also wonders if the Dodgers will seek Huston Street if Takashi Saito is seriously hurt.
- Scout Speculation: Huston Street and Matt Murton to the Rays for prospects?
- Bobby Kielty was granted release by the Red Sox.
- Richie Sexson could decide where to go based on greatest offered playing time. I’d say that’s expected for a veteran starter.
- Olney says that requests for Max Scherzer are keeping the Dbacks from making any moves, such as for Raul Ibanez.
- David Ortiz is slated to return to the lineup on July 25th, which leaves the Red Sox less than a week to evaluate him and make a move if necessary. Olney details some options:
- Acquire a hitter during the waiver period after the deadline. This would rule out comparable replacements such as Matt Holliday or Mark Teixeira.
- Make a "preemptive strike" for Holliday or Teixeira costing them "at least one of their best prospects".
- Target a "second or third tier bat" such as Ibanez or Xavier Nady.
- Continue on with or without an effective Ortiz, hoping their offense is good enough.
Odds & Ends: Bonds, Church, Myers, Teixeira
Some odds and some ends:
- Ozzie Guillen says "Barry [Bonds] can’t play for my team," according to Joe Cowley from the Chicago Sun Times.
- The New York Daily News’ Adam Rubin is reporting Ryan Church‘s diagnosis was positive and his ability to return may "lessen the pressure" on the Mets to find a replacement. They will also get Angel Pagan back next week and management’s "not averse" to promoting 19-year old prospect Fernando Martinez in the second half.
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says Brett Myers feels he’s ready to return.
- The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s David O’Brien notes the Braves are mum on whether they’re buyers or sellers. If they can prove they’re in it then they will seek a right handed hitter. If they can’t, then they will entertain offers for upcoming free agents Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman.
Yankees Roundup: Nady, Sexson, Fuentes, Marte
Over the next 10 days, the Yankees will determine whether they are buyers or sellers. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, if they think they are still in it then they will target "a lefty reliever and a secondary starting pitcher." That starting pitcher could be Eric Milton, however he’s 6 weeks away from starting. I’ll add a right handed bat to that list as the Yankees need help against lefties.
Sherman says the Rockies are interested enough in Ian Kennedy to deal Brian Fuentes for him and the Yankees will need to choose both whether they’re in it and how much they want to retain Kennedy. A cheaper option they’re considering is Damaso Marte, says the Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s Dejan Kovacevic. The fact that Marte is now closing in Pittsburgh may have either decreased his availability or increased his price tag, or both. The Cardinals, Mets, Rays and Red Sox are all in the hunt for the lefty.
Kovacevic says the Yankees are suitors for Xavier Nady as well. Nady is a career .320 hitter against lefties and has played in New York before. And then there’s Richie Sexson, who Tim discussed here, and who George A. King III of the New York Post says the Yankees could sign if/when he clears waivers this week.
A compromise of sorts could be to make a move for A.J. Burnett. The opt-out risk at the end of the year is alarming, but the Yankees could use his services this year and beyond, as well as manage his salary and the upside is still tremendous.