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Burnett, Jays Talking Extension?

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A.J. Burnett’s agent is in Toronto, and Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail hints that preliminary extension talks may have begun. Blair says it’ll take at least $15MM a year to sign Burnett, which the Jays will attempt to do before he opts out and hits the open market.

I imagine Burnett requires four years, with five within the realm of possibility.  It will undoubtedly be a risky contract, though J.P. Ricciardi gambled on Burnett’s stuff back in ’05 and it worked out pretty well.  Pretty much all free agent contracts for top pitchers are risky.

Yankees Want Cashman Back

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9:18pm: The Steinbrenners want to know Cashman’s decision by next week, according to SI.com’s Jon Heyman.  If he agrees to stay, the two sides will then hammer out a contract.

9:06am: The Yankees officially want GM Brian Cashman back, according to Kat O’Brien of Newsday.  Hal Steinbrenner told O’Brien, and Cashman confirmed the team’s desire.  The two parties have yet to discuss dollars on a possible contract.  Cashman prefers to wait until after the season.

O’Brien’s sources say Cashman is torn on this decision, in part due to concerns for his family.  Hal played down his brother’s "advisory board" talk; that may not be an issue.

Built With First-Round Draft Picks

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Like Cork Gaines, I am annoyed by the lazy suggestion that the 2008 Rays owe all of their success to first-round draft picks.  To further Cork’s research, I decided to determine which of the ten playoff teams/contenders were built with first-round picks.

I tallied up each team’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) for players that were drafted in the first round by that team or acquired via trade for first-rounders.  The results:

  • The Mets have gotten 30.9 wins (above replacement) this year due to first round picks.  David Wright, Mike Pelfrey, and Aaron Heilman were Mets first-rounders.  Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, and Ryan Church were acquired using first-round picks Philip Humber and Lastings Milledge.
  • Brewers – 29.9 wins.  They drafted Ryan Braun, Ben Sheets, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks in the first round.  The Crew added C.C. Sabathia via first-rounder Matt LaPorta.
  • Phillies – 26.9 wins.  They drafted Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Pat Burrell, and Brett Myers.  They also used Adrian Cardenas to get Joe Blanton.
  • Rays – 23.2 wins.  The Rays have gotten significant contributions from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria.  They also added Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for first-rounder Delmon Young.
  • Twins – 18.2 wins.  They drafted Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Glen Perkins, and Michael Cuddyer.
  • Angels – 16.7 wins.  They drafted Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver, and used Casey Kotchman to get Mark Teixeira.
  • The Red Sox, White Sox, and Cubs do not owe much of their ’08 success to their own first-round picks (less than 10 wins).  Jacoby Ellsbury and Kerry Wood are the significant first-rounders here.
  • You can download my spreadsheet with info by team here.  Please let me know if you find any errors or omissions.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – Gerald Laird – $1.6MM+
C – Taylor Teagarden – $400K
1B – Chris Davis – $400K
2B – Ian Kinsler – $3MM
SS – Michael Young – $16MM
3B – Hank Blalock – $6.2MM club option, $250K buyout
IF – German Duran – $400K
IF – Joaquin Arias – $400K
LF – David Murphy – $400K
CF – Josh Hamilton – $400K
RF – Nelson Cruz – $400K
OF – Marlon Byrd – $1.8MM+
DH – Frank Catalanotto – $4MM

SP – Kevin Millwood – $11MM
SP – Vicente Padilla – $12MM
SP – Scott Feldman – $400K
SP – Brandon McCarthy -$405K+
SP – Dustin Nippert – $400K

RP – Joaquin Benoit – $3.5MM
RP – Frank Francisco – $775K+
RP – C.J. Wilson – $418K+
RP – Josh Rupe – $400K
RP – Warner Madrigal – $400K
RP – Wes Littleton – $400K
RP – Kameron Loe – $411K+

Other commitments: Julio Borbon – $325K, buyout for Kaz Fukumori – $200K

Other rotation candidates: Kason Gabbard – $400K, Matt Harrison – $400K

If Blalock is retained, the Rangers have $62.8MM committed before arbitration raises to Laird, Byrd, McCarthy, Francisco, Wilson, and Loe.  So, payroll could near $70MM with the current group.  The Rangers had an opening day payroll of $67.7MM.

The Rangers had a league-leading offense this year, but also the AL’s worst pitching staff.  Pitching is clearly the offseason priority.

The Rangers have the game’s best catching surplus, with Laird, Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Max Ramirez.  The Red Sox, Royals, Marlins, and Reds might be looking for help at the position.  It would not be surprising if Jon Daniels inquires on pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Zack Greinke, and Homer Bailey.  However, Jamey Newberg raises a good point – the ’09 rotation already has at least six viable candidates.  Standing pat with the catcher surplus this winter would not be a crime.

I’m not sure how they’d fit in, but maybe the Rangers will pursue reclamation projects like Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia.  Texas could also be an interesting longshot destination for C.C. Sabathia, if the Rangers are willing to raise payroll to secure their ace.

The offense has two question marks in Blalock and Milton Bradley.  Is it worth $6MM to give Blalock one more chance?  He’s having a strong September and could be used at first base or DH if necessary. 

Bradley presents a trickier decision.  He requires multiple guaranteed years, and he’s been an incredible offensive force this season.  He’s driving toward his first 500 plate appearance season since ’04, battling numerous injuries despite only playing 20 games in the field.  Does two years, $20MM plus incentives get it done?  Otherwise the Rangers might have to let their best hitter sign elsewhere.

Odds and Ends : Snyder, Ludwick, Bradley

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Reading material for Tuesday…

  • Chris Carpenter is reportedly dealing with a unique and career-threatening nerve injury, which could increase the Cardinals’ need for starting pitching this winter.
  • Viva El Birdos says the Cardinals should offer Ryan Ludwick and others for Matt Cain.  Can’t hurt to ask.
  • The Cubs claimed outfielder Brad Snyder off waivers from the Indians.  He was the 18th overall pick in 2003, but hasn’t produced enough in the minors.
  • Milton Bradley stands to earn another half-million bucks if he can snag seven more plate appearances.  Bradley met with the Rangers a few months ago to discuss a long-term deal, but nothing is close.  Bradley feels the Rangers are dragging their feet, and gives 50-50 odds on a return.  He said he’d quit baseball if he couldn’t find a multiyear deal somewhere.
  • Sam Mellinger reminds Royals fans that their long-term success hinges on the development of in-house youngsters rather than free agent signings.
  • Steven Goldman notes that the Red Sox are far better prepared for the future than the Yankees.

Pedro Alvarez Details

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Jim Callis of Baseball America and Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette have all kinds of details on the Pedro Alvarez situation.

  • After Bud Selig testified on the first day of the hearing, Scott Boras and the Pirates got in touch (it’s not known who broke the ice).  The Pirates renegotiation doesn’t look great for president Frank Coonelly, who was publicly against the idea.
  • Callis implies that MLB and the Pirates may have made a calculated move by finishing the Alvarez deal after the deadline.  Maybe Boras and Alvarez aren’t the villains here, after all.  Unlike the Julio Borbon signing in ’07, the Pirates didn’t contact the players union for approval of the extension.  Hopefully Alvarez is given a fair shake by baseball fans. 
  • Callis considers the new deal an improvement for Alvarez and Boras, despite the present-day value of $5.67MM.  The Pirates save face with the lower number, but ultimately it looks like Boras and Alvarez won this battle.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Here’s a look at their 2009 commitments:

C – Chris Iannetta – $400K
C – Yorvit Torrealba – $3.5MM
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Clint Barmes – $405K+
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $750K
3B – Garrett Atkins – $4.3875MM+
IF – Jeff Baker – $403K
IF – Ian Stewart – $400K
LF – Matt Holliday – $13.5MM
CF – Willy Taveras – $1.975MM+
RF – Brad Hawpe – $5.5MM
OF – Ryan Spilborghs – $400K
OF – Seth Smith – $400K

SP – Aaron Cook – $8.75MM
SP – Jeff Francis – $3.75MM
SP – Jorge de la Rosa – $1.025MM+
SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $400K
SP – Greg Reynolds – $400K

RP – Manny Corpas – $750K
RP – Taylor Buchholz – $400K
RP – Luis Vizcaino – $3.5MM
RP – Matt Herges – $2.5MM (club option; salary estimated)
RP – Jason Grilli – $420K+
RP – Ryan Speier – $400K
RP – Jason Hirsh – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Cory Sullivan – $1MM+, Willy Taveras – $1.975MM+

Other commitments: Mike Hampton – $6MM

That’s $77.6MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Barmes, Atkins, Taveras, de la Rosa, Grilli, and Sullivan.  Outfielders Taveras and Sullivan could be cut loose, but raises will still push payroll past $82MM.  The Rockies began the season with a $68.6MM payroll.

This should be an interesting offseason for Dan O’Dowd and company.  First there’s the Helton issue.  He’s owed $56.9MM for the 2009-11 seasons, so he’d be very difficult to trade.  Throw in the back problems and he’s basically immovable.

Helton’s injury status may make it harder to trade Atkins this winter.  Could Baker and/or Joe Koshansky handle first base if Atkins is traded and Helton is injured?  Perhaps.  The Rockies would like to move Atkins and his probable $7MM salary for a frontline starting pitcher, but his performance away from Coors has been poor.  If the offers are weak, Atkins may stay.

Holliday could be traded instead; his road performance is not problematic.  However, the Rockies will probably only trade Holliday if they can do so without hurting the ’09 team.  A package similar to the one the Twins received for Johan Santana would be surprising; O’Dowd instead went after Carlos Beltran this summer.

The Rockies’ offense could be solid in ’09 with the current group.  They could hope that Tulo and Atkins bounce back and give more playing time to Iannetta and Stewart.

For the rotation, the Rockies will probably add one veteran starter to their solid core of Cook, Francis, Jimenez, and de la Rosa.  Derek Lowe would be a great signing if they are willing to raise payroll (or find a reasonable trade for Atkins).  Losing Brian Fuentes will hurt the bullpen, but starting pitching is the more urgent need.  Perhaps Atkins can be traded for a quality reliever like Huston Street (just an example – the A’s may not be interested).

If the Rockies take payroll past $85MM, maybe they can lure a veteran like Lowe while retaining Holliday for an ’09 run.  That’d be my strategy.

Odds and Ends: Hawkins, Pettitte, Strasburg

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Rounding up the day’s links…

  • Jack Etkin of the Rocky Mountain News talks about the future of Garrett Atkins.  We discussed the possibility of an Atkins trade in this post.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Molony says the Astros would like to re-sign reliever LaTroy Hawkins.  Amazingly, Hawkins has thrown 17 scoreless innings as an Astro.
  • This is a popular link lately…Vegas Watch examines April predictions from various analysts.  Meanwhile, Scott Long digs in deeper on PECOTA’s American League predictions.  Personally I am more interested in the logic behind projections.  Did anyone predict Rays starters to post a 3.88 ERA?  Did anyone peg Dioner Navarro and Carl Crawford’s seasons?
  • Viva El Birdos hopes the Cardinals do not sign Jon Garland this winter.
  • Sam Mellinger wonders how the Royals would replace David DeJesus if they traded him.
  • Andy Pettitte remains undecided on 2009.  He’s hinted a desire to come back, but it’s unknown whether the Yankees want him.  Houston could make sense.
  • The Mariners are currently in line to have first crack at drafting Stephen Strasburg.  They could even use Erik Bedard’s money to sign him.
  • Javier Valentin hasn’t heard from the Reds regarding 2009.

Heyman’s Latest: Sabathia, Roberts, Cain

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Here’s a look at the latest column from SI.com’s Jon Heyman.

  • One "Yankees person" believes it will take "crazy money" to convince C.C. Sabathia to pitch in New York and in the American League.
  • The following three names are being bandied about in the Yankees’ clubhouse for center field next year: Nate McLouth, David DeJesus, and Matt Kemp.  DeJesus seems the most reasonable target, though Robinson Cano could be part of a package for Kemp.  DeJesus, it should be noted, played a poor center field this year according to the plus/minus system.
  • Heyman doesn’t see the Yankees re-signing Jason Giambi or Bobby Abreu due to defensive concerns.
  • Heyman says the Brewers’ efforts to acquire Brian Roberts were more under the radar than the Cubs’.  GM Doug Melvin admitted Roberts’ name came up last spring, as the Orioles "were wanting to get [the Brewers] involved."
  • Heyman speculation…could the Giants send Matt Cain and another player to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder, and then sign Sabathia?  Or could the Rockies jump into the bidding for C.C.?

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