Discussion: Russell Branyan
On December 3rd, new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik made his first free agent signing: Russell Branyan on a one-year, $1.4MM deal with $350K in incentives. Zduriencik said at the time he was prepared to "give Russell as many at-bats as he's had in his career." That held true, as Branyan racked up 505 plate appearances in 2009. The playing time led to a .251/.347/.520 line with a career-best 31 home runs. However, perhaps due to a back injury, Branyan was only productive for the season's first three months.
Based on comments made by Zduriencik and Branyan, interest in a new contract is mutual. Branyan turns 34 in December, and his rough finish to the season should lead to another one-year deal (perhaps with a club option for 2011). The Mariners have money to spend, though Mike Carp is lurking after hitting .271/.372/.446 at Triple A. Since the Ms have a DH vacancy as well, they could easily fit in both players if Carp shows he can hit big league pitching.
The stars are aligned for Branyan to re-sign with the Mariners. What would constitute a fair offer? FanGraphs valued Branyan's performance at $12.5MM this year, and the free agent market typically overvalues power. Branyan can point out that among free agents, only Jason Bay hit more home runs.
Trade Market: Left Fielders
Looking to trade for a left fielder? This entry in the Trade Market series has you covered. We covered free agent left fielders here.
- Carl Crawford, Rays. Crawford's $10MM (plus escalators) club option for 2010 should be exercised soon. Crawford has said he'd like to sign an extension this winter or else play out the 2010 season and try free agency. In a September mailbag, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times considered a winter Crawford trade "very unlikely" but a July trade possible if the Rays fall out of contention. The 28-year-old speedster hit .305/.364/.452 in 672 plate appearances this year.
- Carlos Lee, Astros. Lee is owed a hefty $55.5MM over the next three seasons, and he has a full no-trade clause in 2010. There's no indication the Astros are trying to move him, but the payroll flexibility wouldn't hurt.
- Josh Willingham, Nationals. Willingham, 31 in February, hit .260/.367/.496 in 502 plate appearances this year. He's due an arbitration raise on his '09 salary of $2.95MM. Willingham and Adam Dunn drew interest at the trade deadline, but GM Mike Rizzo set a high asking price.
- Adam Dunn, Nationals. Dunn was named in our first baseman post, but he did play 505 innings in left field this year.
- Juan Pierre, Dodgers. Assuming Manny Ramirez exercises his $20MM player option, the Dodgers could attempt to trade Pierre. Pierre is owed $18.5MM over the next two seasons. His .365 OBP this year was his best since 2004.
- David DeJesus, Royals. DeJesus has appeared in stray rumors over the years. He's owed $4.7MM next year and has a $6MM club option for '11. He posted a .281/.347/.434 line and plays a strong left field.
- Chase Headley, Padres. With Kevin Kouzmanoff manning third base for the Padres, Headley spent most of his time in left field. He didn't show much pop, tallying a .262/.342/.392 line in his first full season. To his credit, he hit .305/.377/.426 away from Petco and had a similar split last year. The Padres may decide to trade Kouzmanoff and put Headley back at third base.
- Jose Bautista, Blue Jays. We discussed him in our third baseman post, but Bautista logged 322 innings in left field this year.
- Delmon Young, Twins. It's not crazy to consider Young a non-tender candidate after 2009's weak .284/.308/.425 line and dismal defense. Still, Young is only 24 and was considered the best prospect in baseball a few years ago. Would a second change of scenery help?
- Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks. The D'Backs figure to attempt to trade Byrnes before eating the entire $11MM he's owed. Byrnes could be part of a bad contract swap.
- Jack Cust, Athletics. Cust is a DH at heart, but he played 401 innings in right field this year and 585.6 in left field in '08. He's a non-tender candidate after slipping to .240/.356/.417 this year. The A's could try to move him before that December 12th decision comes due (Cust earned $2.8MM this year).
- Luke Scott, Orioles. Scott, 31, spent most of his time at DH this year. He logged 199 innings in left field after getting 840 in '08. Bolstered by a huge May, Scott posted a .258/.340/.488 line this year. He's due an arbitration raise on his $2.4MM salary.
- Marcus Thames, Tigers. Thames could be non-tendered after earning $2.275MM to hit .252/.323/.453 in 294 PAs. He tallied 125 innings in left this year after 488 in '08.
- Matt Murton, Rockies. Murton, 28, toiled in Triple A most of the year, hitting .324/.389/.499 at Colorado Springs. He did a decent job when he last played regularly in the Majors for the Cubs.
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Bradley, Rays, Twins
Links for Monday…
- Offers have begun rolling in for Aroldis Chapman, says ESPN's Keith Law. Also, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat says the Cubs talked to Chapman's agent but he "doesn't fit in their budget."
- ESPN's Peter Gammons tweets that Red Sox Director of Player Development Mike Hazen declined Jed Hoyer's offer to become the Padres' assistant GM.
- MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers "refused to rule out the possibility of Milton Bradley coming back to Texas." Sullivan wasn't willing to allow the possibility a month ago, when he wrote, "The Rangers are not interested in Bradley. Sources have made that clear. He is not coming back. So stop it." Back in September, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram said Bradley "pushed himself way down the wish list with his comments, and probably pushed himself off it completely."
- R.J. Anderson of DRays Bay reflects on the Matt Garza–Delmon Young trade.
- Aaron Gleeman runs through free agent second baseman options for the Twins. Also check out our free agent and trade candidates posts for second base.
- Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times talked to former Rays GM Chuck LaMar about the trade that sent Chad Gaudin to the Blue Jays for Kevin Cash.
Discussion: Pedro Feliz
At the moment, the Phillies have more important things to worry about than Pedro Feliz's option. Like scoring some runs and shutting down the Yankees. But once the season ends, they'll have to decide whether to pick up their third baseman's 2010 option.
The defending World Champions can choose to pay Feliz $5MM in 2010 or buy him out for $500K. According to FanGraphs, Feliz has been worth $5-7MM each of the last two seasons, largely because of his defense. Though he has never won a Gold Glove, the Dominican is widely considered an elite defender. UZR/150 still likes his defense, though the metric suggests Feliz isn't nearly as skilled with the glove as he was a few seasons ago.
But Feliz doesn't add much value offensively. In fact, he hasn't had an OPS higher than .717 since 2004. He hit .266/.308/.386 this season with 12 homers and 44 extra base hits. Give Feliz credit for his durability, though – he's played at least 130 games for each of the last six seasons.
If the Phillies decide to turn down Feliz's option, they could try to trade for Dan Uggla, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Garrett Atkins, or one of the other third basemen who could hit the trade market. Free agents like Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins could appeal to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., and so could more affordable players like Juan Uribe.
Tonight's discussion question is a simple one: should the Phillies pick up Feliz's option? Or should they spend the money elsewhere and let the third baseman walk?
Week In Review: 10/25/09 – 10/31-09
Baseball's hot stove season begins after the World Series, but we still had action during the last week of October.
- Manny Acta was hired to manage the Indians, which led to the Astros hiring Brad Mills. Tony La Russa's extension with the Cardinals was announced; it's a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. La Russa is bringing Mark McGwire with him as the Cards' new hitting coach.
- Jed Hoyer was announced as the Padres' new GM; he replaced Kevin Towers. Hoyer signed a four-year contract with a club option for 2014. Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy are close to three-year agreements.
- Catcher Kenji Johjima opted out of his Mariners contract on October 19th, leaving $16MM on the table. On Tuesday he reached an agreement with the Hanshin Tigers for four years and around $21MM.
- The Rays re-signed outfielder Gabe Kapler to a one-year, $1.05MM deal, a slight raise on last year's salary. The Astros re-upped infielder Geoff Blum for one year and $1.5MM, with a mutual option for 2011. The biggest signing of the week goes to the Giants, who inked Freddy Sanchez to a two-year, $12MM extension. Sanchez is off the market, but remaining free agent second basemen include Akinori Iwamura (club option), Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, Ronnie Belliard, Placido Polanco, and Juan Uribe.
- Righty Tim Hudson was expected to sign a three-year extension worth around $27MM by the end of the week. If an agreement was reached, the Braves are keeping it under wraps. Perhaps they're still hammering out details.
- Several players became free agents, including Tyler Yates, Chris Coste, Noah Lowry, Edgar Gonzalez, and Jack Taschner. View our full 2010 MLB free agents list here.
- Alex Anthopoulos' first move as Blue Jays' GM was a quiet one: he claimed pitcher Sean Henn off waivers from the Orioles.
- The Orioles declined two options: third baseman Melvin Mora for $8MM and catcher Chad Moeller for $850K. Moeller is still expected to return. The Astros declined their $2.85MM option on reliever Doug Brocail.
- Gary Matthews Jr. wants to be traded and does not realize how undesirable he is. Speaking of bad contracts, we listed a slew of them here.
- We summed up the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes. Chapman visited with the Red Sox and Orioles this week, while the Tigers and Mariners were added to the list of suitors.
- SI's Jon Heyman reported that Manny Ramirez is "planning to exercise" his $20MM player option for 2010.
- Albert Pujols told 101 ESPN in St. Louis that he wants to be a Cardinal for life. Pujols is basically under contract through 2011 already.
- Free agent left fielder Jason Bay chatted with fans at WEEI.com, and said he wouldn't be limited by geography.
- We analyzed the trade market for all five infield positions: catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, and third base.
- We did Offseason Outlooks for the Braves, Tigers, and Mariners.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith's Trades of the Decade series included famous deals involving Bartolo Colon, Scott Kazmir, and Ken Griffey Jr.
Trade Market: Third Basemen
Next up in our Trade Market series, third basemen. Click here to see our take on the free agent market for the position.
- Dan Uggla, Marlins. Uggla is a second baseman, so we discussed him here. He last played third base for the '05 Tennessee Smokies, for what it's worth. If a team acquired him and asked him to switch, he wouldn't have much of a choice.
- Jorge Cantu, Marlins. Cantu had an entry in our first basemen post, but he did log 355 innings at the hot corner this year and 1066.6 last year. His defense at third base left much to be desired.
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres. How valuable is Kouzmanoff? The 28-year-hit .255/.302/.420 this year in 573 plate appearances after a similar offensive line last year. He's solid defensively, according to UZR/150. Kouzmanoff will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so his salary should jump into the $3-4MM range. That he's a competent third baseman gives him value, but teams may not be jumping to add his .300 OBP.
- Mark Teahen, Royals. Teahen, 28, hit .271/.325/.408 this year while playing third base, right field, and a little bit of first and second base. His defense has not rated well lately. Since Teahen is due a raise on this year's $3.575MM salary, he's a non-tender candidate.
- Mat Gamel, Brewers. Casey McGehee will be the Brewers' starting third baseman next year, and Gamel won't be moved to the outfield. What's more, Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash admitted last month that the team might have to take some risks and consider trading top prospects. Put it all together, and Gamel might be traded for pitching this winter. The 24-year-old has yet to really crush Triple A pitching; he hit .278/.367/.473 in 320 plate appearances this year. He struggled defensively at third base in the minors.
- Neil Walker, Pirates. Walker is currently playing winter ball; he hopes to steal Andy LaRoche's at-bats at third base in 2010 before Pedro Alvarez arrives. Walker complained in August that he wasn't one of Neal Huntington's guys, though he was called up weeks later. He hit .264/.311/.480 in his second full season at Triple A.
- Brandon Wood, Angels. Wood was named in our shortstops post, but he's spent time at third base in his career.
- Garrett Atkins, Rockies. Atkins is highly likely to be non-tendered after earning $7.05MM this year. If there's a team willing to give the Rockies a useful player and pay Atkins a similar amount in 2010, he will be traded. Count on the non-tender.
- Ramon Vazquez, Pirates. Vazquez didn't play much third base this year, but did get 1073.3 innings there in 2007-08 for the Rangers. He's set to earn $2MM next year and is coming off a .230/.335/.279 performance.
- Jose Bautista, Blue Jays. Bautista, 29, hit .235/.349/.408 in 404 plate appearances this year while playing third base, left field, right field, and even a few games in center. He continued to crush lefties and defend well. He earned $2.4MM this year and it wouldn't be a mistake to tender him a contract. Maybe the Jays will shop Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, or maybe they'll stand pat since Alex Rios won't be with the club in 2010.
- Josh Fields, White Sox. Fields, 27 in December, hit .222/.301/.347 in 268 plate appearances this year. He hoped for a trade deadline deal, but it didn't happen.
Olney On Non-Tenders
In his latest blog post (ESPN Insider required), Buster Olney discusses what he refers to as baseball's "next great economic disparity," referring to the large number of players, young and old, who stand to make more money through arbitration than they would on the free agent market. One executive referred to the arbitration process as "outdated."
Multiple general managers feel that there will be dozens of non-tendered players over the course of the next 41 days. In total, Olney and some baseball executives counted 93 "solid" non-tender candidates as they examined each team's roster (check out Tim's list here). If the final number comes close to that, nearly 300 players will be looking for a new team this offseason, vastly deflating the asking price for most free agents.
Olney names two non-tender candidates in detail, in J.J. Hardy and Bobby Jenks:
- Hardy hit just .229 with 11 home runs this season after posting home run totals of 26 and 24 the past two seasons. He's also due a raise on his $4.65MM salary, and the Brewers have Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings. Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?
- Jenks posted a mediocre line this season, while making $5.6MM. Olney speculates that he could receive as much as $7.5MM through arbitration. Roughly a dozen closers could be available this winter, making Jenks and his disappointing 2009 a tough sell at that price tag. Should the White Sox invest that much in him, or simply look for a cheaper alternative?
Olney feels that some big market teams could reel in non-tender candidates from small market teams for lower level prospects and wait to see if they pan out over the remainder of their time under team control. Additionally, he says that teams such as the Twins will be able to take fliers on non-tendered players and receive tremendous value.
What other non-tender candidates do you see emerging this offseason, and where might they land? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
Dodgers Notes: Manny, Schmidt, Offseason
MLB.com's Ken Gurnick takes a look at what he figures to be an "exciting" offseason for the Dodgers. Let's go over the highlights:
- No surprise that Gurnick lists Manny Ramirez as the biggest question mark heading into 2010. Manny's 37, and while many feel he's a lock to pick up his $20MM option for 2010, Gurnick cautions not to be too sure. As Gurnick points out, Manny is as unpredictable as they come, as is his agent, Scott Boras. Gurnick reminds us of 2006, when no one thought J.D. Drew would walk away from $33MM guaranteed, but he and Boras did just that, securing more years and more dollars with the Red Sox. Additionally, Manny's told his teammates that the pounding on his legs is getting to him, and that he ought to be a designated hitter.
- The Dodgers are set to have up to $40MM come off the books this offseason, which should more than cover the arbitration raises due to Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, and Hong-Chih Kuo.
- Jason Schmidt accounts for $15.5MM of that $40MM sum. Gurnick says that Schmidt is "expected to retire."
- The Dodgers did extremely well signing Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf to one-year deals last offseason, but now find themselves right back where they started, writes Gurnick, with second base and starting pitching as the biggest needs.
- Gurnick lists outfielder Jason Repko as a non-tender candidate.
- Rather than give the second base job to Blake DeWitt, Gurnick feels that an acquisition for second base is "almost a certainty."
Odds & Ends: Giants, Bay, Rockies, Padres
Here are a few Sunday links to browse, as a huge sports day in Philadelphia begins….
- John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders if the "desperate-for-pop" San Francisco Giants will try to top the Boston Red Sox rumored four-year offer to Jason Bay (we heard some speculation about this yesterday too). If not, Shea names Garrett Atkins as a cheaper potential target for the Giants.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman discusses Bay and Matt Holliday in his latest column. Heyman points out that although Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, refers to him as the market's "most complete" player, Urbon keeps tying Bay's value to Holliday's. Scott Boras is avoiding doing the same thing for his client, instead comparing Holliday to the $180MM man, Mark Teixeira.
- Within the same column, Heyman mentions progress being made on contracts for Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy, suggesting something could be announced after the World Series.
- New San Diego GM Jed Hoyer has reportedly offered Red Sox farm director Mike Hazen the Padres' assistant GM position, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Baseball Prospectus's John Perrotto reports (via Twitter) that there's no chance Pittsburgh Pirates prospects Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln will be called up to the majors before at least June of next year.
- DRays Bay looks ahead to this winter's free agent reliever market. If you missed it, check out MLBTR's analysis of the market for closers, as well as for both lefty and righty relievers.
- Casey Kelly and the Red Sox have to decide soon whether the 20-year-old prospect will continue his career as a pitcher or shortstop, according to Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald. Given Kelly's minor league numbers to date, it seems like a no-brainer that the team will want to move him back to the mound.
- Roch Kubatko of MASN.com tries to sort out the Baltimore Orioles' 40-man roster.
Cafardo On Pujols, Mauer, Holliday, Damon
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a new column up, and he addresses a few topics of interest from around the majors. Some highlights….
- Cafardo examines the crossroads that superstars Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer will soon face with their current clubs. He passes on this quote from one baseball official: "I think Mauer has a better chance of staying in Minnesota than Pujols in St. Louis. Mauer is from Minnesota, while you have to give Pujols an A-Rod type contract and I’m not sure the Cardinals would do it."
- His source thinks that the best way for the Cardinals to keep Pujols in St. Louis is to continue showing him they're committed to going after championships by making moves like this year's Matt Holliday acquisition.
- Cafardo sees "no downside" to the idea of Holliday patrolling left field in Fenway next season. From an on-field standpoint, that statement could apply to virtually every team in the league, but the Red Sox are probably one of the few clubs that could absorb the financial blow.
- Johnny Damon could be a good fit in the south side of Chicago, according to Cafardo. The White Sox will be looking for a leadoff hitter, and it's still unclear whether or not Damon will be back in New York.
- Casey Kotchman may not fit into Boston's plans next year, but Cafardo thinks he could also be a solid addition to the White Sox — especially if Chicago doesn't retain Mark Kotsay.
- Cafardo wonders why a power-hitting right-hander, like the New York Mets covet, would want to play in Citi Field, which he calls a "death valley" for righties.