NL West Roundup: Giants, Padres, Dodgers
The Internet is filled with insight into the teams of the Pacific Coast…
- MLB.com Giants beat reporter Chris Haft answered a number of reader questions, shooting down both the idea that the Giants can stand pat offensively and trade suggestions from a reader for Prince Fielder and Carl Crawford. Haft offers plenty to chew on in this comprehensive piece.
- Haft's San Diego counterpart Corey Brock answers plenty of Padre questions as well. Brock believes Ken Griffey Jr. is not a good target for the Padres and Kevin Correia absolutely will return. Brock touches on the long-term plan for the Padres and other topics as well.
- CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler discusses a trade not made by the Dodgers: Los Angeles' failure to acquire Cliff Lee, who shut them down in Sunday night's game.
Discussion: Jonathan Papelbon
MLB.com's Ian Browne doesn't think Jonathan Papelbon's final appearance with the Red Sox will be his meltdown in Game 3 of the ALDS. A reader inquired in Browne's mailbag column whether Papelbon could be jettisoned, with Daniel Bard getting a shot at closing duties.
Browne notes that Papelbon has been an All Star during each of his four years as closer, and says of Boston, "I think the Red Sox would much rather work with Papelbon to try to get him back to his 2006-08 form than trade him away."
There are some reasons to think the Red Sox would be well-advised to deal Papelbon if the price is right. Later in the same mailbag, Browne noted that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein shares the commonly-held belief that Boston's best prospects are 2-3 years away. A Papelbon deal for high-level prospects could allow the Red Sox to restock the upper tier of their farm system, with Bard or Billy Wagner (whom the Sox can offer arbitration to) closing in 2010.
Papelbon also had some warning signs in his 2009 statistical line. While his ERA actually dropped from 2008's 2.34 to 1.85 in 2009, that is deceptive. Papelbon's walk rate more than tripled, from 1.0 to 3.2 walks per nine innings. His Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) rose more than a run, from 2.01 to 3.05. He'll be expensive in arbitration this winter, and will hit free agency in his early 30s (he turns 29 on November 23).
In his defense, he's Jonathan Papelbon. Few closers have been better, even during his "down year" in 2009.
So what should the Red Sox do? What should it take to pry Papelbon loose from Boston?
Kenji Johjima Opts Out Of Contract
5:16pm: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times talked to Johjima's agent Alan Nero, who confirmed the Mariners are free of the $16MM left on his client's contract. It is rare, but not unprecedented, for a ballplayer to walk away from that kind of money. Nero explained Johjima's opt-out clause in further detail to Baker as well.
Zduriencik wouldn't comment on the allocation of the found money, but you have to think the Mariners now have extra flexibility in free agency. On the other hand, they now need a veteran catcher.
12:34pm: According to Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik, there was no buyout.
11:36am: Catcher Kenji Johjima has opted out of the final two years of his contract, according to a press release from the Mariners. He'll resume his career back in Japan. The Mariners are freed from the $16MM they'd have owed Johjima over 2010-11, though Larry LaRue of the Tacoma News Tribune says the parties "came to an agreement on a buyout."
Johjima originally signed with the Mariners as a free agent; he agreed to a three-year, $16.5MM deal in November of 2005. His success in '06 and '07 made that entire contract worthwhile, but Johjima's April '08 three-year extension for $24MM was widely panned.
Odds & Ends: Saito, Jaramillo, Marlins
More Monday linkage…
- Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says the Rockies want catcher Yorvit Torrealba back, but not at his $4MM option price.
- WEEI's Alex Speier explains that outrighting Takashi Saito makes a Boston re-signing more feasible.
- Rudy Jaramillo will likely reach an agreement soon with the Cubs for their hitting coach position, according to SI's Jon Heyman. Heyman says Jaramillo will be near the top of the coach pay scale, at $800K a year for multiple years. The Cubs are hoping Jaramillo can help Alfonso Soriano. Milton Bradley hit well in Texas, though he's a trade candidate.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro talked to first baseman Nick Johnson, who is approaching free agency for the first time in his career. Johnson seems unlikely to stay with the Marlins. (Check out our discussion post on him here). Frisaro says the Fish could further shake up the infield corners by trading Jorge Cantu.
- Newsday's David Lennon reminds us the Mets chose Oliver Perez over Randy Wolf last winter. Wolf supplied 214.3 innings of 3.23 ball for the Dodgers for $8MM.
- MLB.com's Jordan Bastian talked to Blue Jays defensive whiz/impending free agent John McDonald about the future and his popularity in Toronto.
- MLB.com's Bill Chastain feels the Rays will at least talk to free agent reliever Billy Wagner. Nice fit, though VP Andrew Friedman found it unlikely they'd sign a closer when asked a few weeks ago. It won't help if Wagner turns down an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, which would attach a draft pick cost.
Boras Compares Holliday To Teixeira
Scott Boras believes Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday are both "blue-collar superstars," learned Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. Boras considers both to be "complete players," and finds Holliday unique in the upcoming free agent class. Boras' comments imply that Holliday's advantage over Jason Bay is his defense.
No matter how well Boras pitches Holliday, it seems highly unlikely the outfielder will sniff the eight-year, $180MM deal Tex received. Speculation so far has focused on the typical big-market clubs, but here in October it's too early to say which teams will make legitimate, $100MM+ bids.
It's always fun to read Boras' hyperbolic statements about his clients. His other free agents include Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Garret Anderson, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Rick Ankiel, Andruw Jones, Xavier Nady, and Jarrod Washburn (Varitek and Manny have 2010 options).
Discussion: Erik Bedard
A few years ago, it seemed possible that Erik Bedard could score a massive $20MM per year free agent contract upon reaching free agency after the 2009 season. One huge trade and two disappointing seasons later, he's likely to sign a one-year deal.
Bedard, who turns 31 in March, was at peak value after whiffing 221 in 182 innings for the '07 Orioles. In one of the most lopsided trades of the decade, the Orioles sent the lefty to Seattle for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler. Sherrill has since been spun into prospects Josh Bell and Steven Johnson by the O's.
Bedard was named the Mariners' 2008 Opening Day starter in February, and he avoided arbitration by signing for $7MM shortly thereafter. He was plagued by hip inflammation, back spasms, and shoulder tightness, which culminated in September shoulder surgery. Having tossed only 81 innings, Bedard was content with a $750K raise plus incentives for his 2009 contract. Bedard's '09 injuries were minor until June, when shoulder problems resurfaced. Exploratory surgery performed in August found a torn labrum and inflamed bursa. His recovery has him throwing in four to six months, meaning he might not be ready for Opening Day 2010.
The Red Sox are a natural fit for Bedard, as GM Theo Epstein was not scared off by the failed buy-low attempts on Brad Penny and John Smoltz last winter. Smoltz's $5.5MM guarantee may represent the upper bound for a pitcher coming off surgery. Smoltz's labrum surgery was in June of '08, and the Sox were initially targeting June of '09 for his debut. Bedard's team will have to be more aggressive, otherwise he would be debuting in August.
Other clubs looking to add to their rotation include the Brewers, Nationals, Mets, and Diamondbacks. The Cardinals, Orioles, Indians, Twins, A's, Royals, and Rangers could be other possibilities. Even a return to the Mariners can't be ruled out. Where do you see Bedard signing, and for what kind of contract?
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the White Sox. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – A.J. Pierzynski – $6.25MM
C/DH – Tyler Flowers – $400K
1B – Paul Konerko – $12MM
2B – Chris Getz – $401K
SS – Alexei Ramirez – $1.1MM
3B – Gordon Beckham – $400K
IF/OF – Brent Lillibridge – $403K
IF – Jayson Nix – $400K
LF –
CF – Alex Rios – $9.7MM
RF – Carlos Quentin – $550K+
OF –
DH – Dayan Viciedo – $1.25MM
SP – Mark Buehrle – $14MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $15MM
SP – Gavin Floyd – $2.75MM
SP – John Danks – $520K+
SP – Freddy Garcia – $1MM
RP – Bobby Jenks – $5.6MM+
RP – Scott Linebrink – $5MM
RP – Matt Thornton – $2.25MM
RP – D.J. Carrasco – $440K+
RP – Tony Pena – $430K+
RP – Randy Williams – $410K
RP - Carlos Torres - $400K
Other commitments: Mike MacDougal – $350K, Jermaine Dye – $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Bobby Jenks
The White Sox have about $82MM committed before arbitration raises to Quentin, Danks, Jenks, Carrasco, and Pena. Those raises will be significant, and Jenks will probably be tendered a contract. So we'll put the Sox at about $95MM for 2010. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Opening Day payroll was $96MM (after averaging $111MM the three previous years).
Trading or non-tendering Jenks would free up a good $7MM for GM Ken Williams. MLB.com's Scott Merkin believes it'd take "a strong-to-overwhelming package" for Williams to move his closer. With a surplus of available closers this winter, Jenks will stay put if Merkin is correct about the team's demands.
The rotation appears set, since Garcia's option was exercised recently. The pen is nearly ready, with a minor veteran addition possible (a lefty, if Jenks is traded and Thornton promoted to closer).
The infield is locked in as well, leaving vacancies at left field and DH (assuming Quentin moves to right). Hopefully Williams is considering more than just Chone Figgins and Scott Podsednik for left field. Most likely the free agent market will have corner outfield bargains once again. It'd be even easier to fill the DH spot; re-signing Jim Thome on the cheap is one of many options.
Chicago's rotation looks strong, but the offense is filled with variables. Will Williams make the right choices at left field and DH, two easy-to-fill spots? Will Konerko and Beckham keep hitting, with Rios and Quentin bouncing back? It's easy to imagine both extremes for the offense; that outcome should determine whether the Sox contend in 2010.
Odds & Ends: Eyre, Rockies, Red Sox
Links for Monday…
- Slate's Craig Fehrman writes about "the sports media's unique mindset toward [online] aggregators" and how MLBTR fits in.
- On his MLB.com blog, Phillies reliever Scott Eyre suggests he and catcher Paul Bako are reconsidering retirement because they're having so much fun.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler that he offered four players to the Indians for Cliff Lee back in July. Lee instead landed with the Phillies and shut down the Dodgers last night.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star believes it's very difficult for fans and reporters to create realistic trade scenarios. Do you agree?
- The Rockies are "ready to finalize deals with general manager Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy," according to Tracy Ringolsby of Inside The Rockies.
- The Yusei Kikuchi talks are moving along, says NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman. U.S.S. Mariner's Jay Yencich gives his scouting report on Kikuchi. In another post, Newman runs down the interested MLB teams. He notes that the Rangers sent pitcher Derek Holland along with Jim Colburn.
- WEEI's Alex Speier passes along a Dale & Holley appearance by ESPN's Buster Olney. Olney guesses the Red Sox might stop at four years for Jason Bay, and their primary competition will come from the Mariners and Giants.
- ESPN's Peter Gammons discusses Jed Lowrie as Boston's short-term answer at shortstop, with Jose Iglesias as the long-term answer.
- Pete Grathoff of the KC Star writes about the 35-year anniversary of Tommy John surgery.
Blue Jays Hope To Re-Sign Scutaro, Barajas
The Blue Jays would like to re-sign shortstop Marco Scutaro and catcher Rod Barajas, GM Alex Anthopoulos told Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. Anthopoulos also said he will not learn his budget until later this month. Our recent Offseason Outlook suggests the Blue Jays will only have $10MM to spend unless payroll is increased.
Scutaro, 34 later this month, hit .282/.379/.409 in 680 plate appearances this year. His defense was average this year and above average last year, based on UZR/150. Coming off a career year, Scutaro figures to ask for at least $6MM annually. He's a projected Type A free agent, so the Jays will miss out on the chance to add two draft picks if they re-sign him.
Barajas, 34, hit .226/.258/.403 in a career-high 460 PAs this year. Among those with 400 PAs, Barajas' OBP was the worst in baseball. He had a pretty strong season defensively, though not quite on par with his arbitration-eligible teammate Raul Chavez. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian recently explained that the Jays may need to re-sign Barajas because prospects J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman need more minor league seasoning and Chavez might fit better as a backup. Barajas profiles as a Type B free agent, though it's not certain the Jays will offer him arbitration.
If Scutaro earns $6MM in 2010 and Barajas repeats his $2.5MM salary, the Blue Jays might not have much left to spend if they re-sign both. Anthopoulos could backload Scutaro's contract to create more payroll space in 2010, but going beyond two years on the 34-year-old would be dangerous.
Rockies Not Looking To Trade Brad Hawpe
The Rockies are not looking to trade right fielder Brad Hawpe, according to Tracy Ringolsby of Inside The Rockies. Ringolsby talked to Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd, who said, "We have no desire to move [Hawpe] at all."
The Rockies are not under pressure to unload Hawpe's contract, which pays $7.5MM in 2010 with a $10MM club option for '11 ($500K buyout). Cot's Baseball Contracts notes that Hawpe can void the option if traded. Ringolsby says the Rockies would trade Hawpe only if they "received a solid return, such as the Matt Holliday trade last off-season."
O'Dowd had to stomp out Hawpe rumors in June also. At that time, he told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post:
"I don't know where any of that came from. I don't foresee us doing anything with him. That's something you would only do strategically, for the big picture. That would be something for the offseason, if at all."
Hawpe, 30, has a strong offensive track record over the past four seasons, but his defense has been detrimental. Over the past few weeks we've seen and contributed to speculation that Hawpe could be a fit for the Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox.