Theo Epstein Talks 2010
4:21pm: MLB.com's Ian Browne has more from Epstein and Bay. Epstein noted that discussions to date have been "under the radar screen and underreported even after the fact," and he hopes to keep them that way. Bay continued to speak highly of the Red Sox while adding the caveat that he'll test the market.
3:30pm: Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe was one of many reporters at today's press conference with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona. Let's take a look at a few hot stove highlights:
- The Red Sox are penciling in Clay Buchholz for the 2010 rotation. We can assume Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka will take three more spots. Epstein is including Tim Wakefield in planning for next year, which implies the Sox will again exercise the knuckleballer's $4MM option. My opinion – it won't be surprising to see the Red Sox sign an additional starter of the bargain variety.
- Victor Martinez is the team's starting catcher, so look for his $7.7MM club option to be picked up soon. WEEI's Mike Petraglia relays a comment from Epstein about locking up Martinez past 2010: "We'll see. We'd love to see him here long term."
- Epstein finds it unusual that the Red Sox and Jason Bay both want a new contract but nothing is in place yet. On a related note, check out this recent post from U.S.S. Mariner's Dave Cameron about the risk of signing Bay.
- Epstein spoke about 2010 possibly being the last chance for several of the team's core players to make a run at another title. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Josh Beckett can be free agents after next season. Petraglia quotes Epstein on Ortiz: "We need him to be a force."
- Petraglia says the Red Sox are open to picking up Alex Gonzalez's $6MM club option for 2010. Seems steep for a guy who missed all of '08 with a knee injury.
Heyman On Abreu, Fielder, Hoyer
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman says the Angels and Bobby Abreu are still far apart on a new contract. Abreu earned $6MM this year.
- The Brewers will attempt to sign Prince Fielder to a long-term deal this winter. Fielder, a Scott Boras client, is signed through 2010 and under team control through 2011. Given the way teams pay for power, Fielder might expect $20MM+ to buy out free agent years.
- Heyman sees Red Sox senior VP/assistant GM Jed Hoyer as the favorite for the Padres GM job.
Which Free Agents Will Be Offered Arbitration?
For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player. The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010. Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.
Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time." For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09. (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).
Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration. Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).
Locks to be offered arb: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf
Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro
Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero
Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration. That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.
Of course, this is all just one person's opinion. Let me know where you feel differently. Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).
Which Free Agents Will Be Offered Arbitration?
For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player. The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010. Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.
Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time." For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09. (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).
Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration. Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).
Locks to be offered arb: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf
Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro
Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero
Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration. That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.
Of course, this is all just one person's opinion. Let me know where you feel differently. Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).
Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C –
C – Raul Chavez – $500K+
1B – Lyle Overbay – $7MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $4MM
SS –
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $4.75MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $411K
LF – Adam Lind – $412K
CF – Vernon Wells – $12.5MM
RF – Travis Snider – $401K
OF –
DH – Randy Ruiz – $400K
? –
SP – Roy Halladay – $15.75MM
SP – Ricky Romero – $400K
SP – Shaun Marcum – $405K+
SP – Marc Rzepczynski – $400K
SP – Scott Richmond – $402K
Other candidates: Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Brad Mills
Injured: Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
RP – Scott Downs – $4MM
RP – Jason Frasor – $1.45MM+
RP – Brandon League – $640K+
RP – Jesse Carlson – $409K
RP – Casey Janssen – $414K
RP – Shawn Camp – $750K+
RP – Brian Tallet – $1.015MM+
Non-tender candidates: Jose Bautista, Jeremy Accardo
Other commitments: B.J. Ryan – $10MM
Assuming Bautista and one of Accardo/Tallet are non-tendered, the Blue Jays will have roughly $56MM committed before arbitration raises to Marcum, Frasor, League, Camp, and Chavez. Add in B.J. Ryan's salary and commitments are in the low $70MM range. The Jays entered 2009 with an $80.5MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. New GM Alex Anthopoulos might have $10MM to spend, if the team holds payroll steady.
If Anthopoulos looks to contend in 2010, he's got his work cut out for him, especially if payroll isn't increased. With Rod Barajas and Marco Scutaro eligible for free agency, the team could lose its starters at catcher and shortstop. The Jays also lack a right fielder if they're unwilling to use Lind and Snider at the corners.
The Jays could attempt to improve upon Barajas behind the plate, though most other free agent catchers are equally questionable. Arizona's Chris Snyder would be an interesting target, if not for the $11.25MM remaining on his contract. Blue Jays catcher of the future J.P. Arencibia seemingly needs more seasoning after a .236/.284/.444 Triple A performance. Barajas hopes to return, but has yet to hold discussions with the Jays.
Shortstop will also be a difficult position to fill. Scutaro could be seeking $6-7MM annually coming off a career year. The free agent market is bleak here as well, with J.J. Hardy the obvious trade target. The Blue Jays might even have the starting pitching depth to pull off a deal with Milwaukee.
As always, outfield and DH options are plentiful on the free agent market. Anthopoulos can afford to wait until February and hunt for a bargain.
I've been operating under the assumption the Blue Jays will attempt to compete in 2010 and will therefore keep Halladay. If so, their rotation appears deep. But is it crazy to think the Jays could trade Doc and put themselves in a better position for 2010? Perhaps Anthopoulos could build the trade around a Major League-ready catcher or shortstop as well as a high-quality young starting pitcher.
Anthopoulos has admitted his team needs more than tweaking. Will the Blue Jays commit to a full-scale rebuilding plan? Will they raise payroll significantly and add players to complement Halladay, Lind, and Hill? It'd be disappointing to see the Jays choose something in-between.
Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C –
C – Raul Chavez – $500K+
1B – Lyle Overbay – $7MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $4MM
SS –
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $4.75MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $411K
LF – Adam Lind – $412K
CF – Vernon Wells – $12.5MM
RF – Travis Snider – $401K
OF –
DH – Randy Ruiz – $400K
? –
SP – Roy Halladay – $15.75MM
SP – Ricky Romero – $400K
SP – Shaun Marcum – $405K+
SP – Marc Rzepczynski – $400K
SP – Scott Richmond – $402K
Other candidates: Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Brad Mills
Injured: Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
RP – Scott Downs – $4MM
RP – Jason Frasor – $1.45MM+
RP – Brandon League – $640K+
RP – Jesse Carlson – $409K
RP – Casey Janssen – $414K
RP – Shawn Camp – $750K+
RP – Brian Tallet – $1.015MM+
Non-tender candidates: Jose Bautista, Jeremy Accardo
Other commitments: B.J. Ryan – $10MM
Assuming Bautista and one of Accardo/Tallet are non-tendered, the Blue Jays will have roughly $56MM committed before arbitration raises to Marcum, Frasor, League, Camp, and Chavez. Add in B.J. Ryan's salary and commitments are in the low $70MM range. The Jays entered 2009 with an $80.5MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. New GM Alex Anthopoulos might have $10MM to spend, if the team holds payroll steady.
If Anthopoulos looks to contend in 2010, he's got his work cut out for him, especially if payroll isn't increased. With Rod Barajas and Marco Scutaro eligible for free agency, the team could lose its starters at catcher and shortstop. The Jays also lack a right fielder if they're unwilling to use Lind and Snider at the corners.
The Jays could attempt to improve upon Barajas behind the plate, though most other free agent catchers are equally questionable. Arizona's Chris Snyder would be an interesting target, if not for the $11.25MM remaining on his contract. Blue Jays catcher of the future J.P. Arencibia seemingly needs more seasoning after a .236/.284/.444 Triple A performance. Barajas hopes to return, but has yet to hold discussions with the Jays.
Shortstop will also be a difficult position to fill. Scutaro could be seeking $6-7MM annually coming off a career year. The free agent market is bleak here as well, with J.J. Hardy the obvious trade target. The Blue Jays might even have the starting pitching depth to pull off a deal with Milwaukee.
As always, outfield and DH options are plentiful on the free agent market. Anthopoulos can afford to wait until February and hunt for a bargain.
I've been operating under the assumption the Blue Jays will attempt to compete in 2010 and will therefore keep Halladay. If so, their rotation appears deep. But is it crazy to think the Jays could trade Doc and put themselves in a better position for 2010? Perhaps Anthopoulos could build the trade around a Major League-ready catcher or shortstop as well as a high-quality young starting pitcher.
Anthopoulos has admitted his team needs more than tweaking. Will the Blue Jays commit to a full-scale rebuilding plan? Will they raise payroll significantly and add players to complement Halladay, Lind, and Hill? It'd be disappointing to see the Jays choose something in-between.
Odds & Ends: Blue Jays, Rockies, Crede
Links for Monday…
- The Astros received permission to interview Red Sox first base coach Tim Bogar for their managerial job, according to WEEI's Rob Bradford. Brad Mills and Manny Acta will also interview, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). McTaggart adds Bob Melvin, Dave Clark, and Al Pedrique as other candidates, while Alyson Footer adds Ned Yost, Randy Ready, Phil Garner, and Pete Mackanin.
- Nationals scouting director Dana Brown has been hired away by new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
- Rockies owner Dick Monfort told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the team's postseason appearance won't significantly affect payroll. The Rockies have impending free agents in Jason Marquis, Yorvit Torrealba, Rafael Betancourt, and Joe Beimel (among others), and must also decide whether to tender Garrett Atkins a contract. Torrealba and Betancourt have pricey club options.
- Astros catcher J.R. Towles is a potential buy-low candidate for the Rays, says R.J. Anderson of DRays Bay. Towles hit .276/.386/.455 in Triple A this year, but Jason Castro is the Astros' catcher of the future.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak hopes to take advantage of the exclusive negotiating period for his free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. In a separate article, Joe Strauss of the P-D notes that Rick Ankiel pulled a fast one on the media.
- Joe Crede is optimistic he'll have a quick recovery from his third back surgery, says MLB.com's Scott Merkin. Merkin says the Boras client "spoke more in generalities than about a specific return to Minnesota."
- Jack Morris almost signed with the Yankees in 1996, writes Jack Curry of the New York Times.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports speculates about the Red Sox trading closer Jonathan Papelbon.
Discussion: Vicente Padilla
Vicente Padilla's stock has risen dramatically since he signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in August. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 39.3 innings, and was brilliant finishing off the Cardinals in Game 3 of the NLDS. He received hugs from Joe Torre and Ned Colletti and kind words from his new teammates.
Padilla will be a free agent this winter. His checkered history will likely limit him to one-year offers. Through the years Padilla missed significant time with triceps, shoulder, and elbow injuries. He was suspended twice for throwing at hitters, and led all of baseball in HBPs (98) from 2002 to 2009. His Rangers teammates complained about him and applauded his exit. He battled a drinking problem that resulted in a July 2006 DWI (the Rangers signed him to a $33MM deal that winter anyway). By this summer the Rangers were fed up, designating Padilla for assignment and eating over $5MM of his contract.
Where do you see Padilla landing, and what type of contract will he receive? Given all the good vibes, I expect the Dodgers to look into re-signing him to a one-year deal, worth perhaps $4MM plus incentives. Back when Padilla was a free agent in December of '06, Mets GM Omar Minaya was among those interested. Will Minaya renew his interest three years later? The Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Brewers figure to be in the market for free agent starting pitching as well.
Odds & Ends: Padres, Burrell, Upton, Jays
Here's a few links to help you relax before starting the grind tomorrow…
- Dan Hayes of The North County Times says that whoever takes over as GM of the Padres will inherit a favorable situation because the "40-man roster is loaded with affordable, controllable talent" and the team "should have a little spending flexibility this offseason." Plus it's San Diego, which is awesome.
- Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times says that unless the Rays find someone willing to take on the $9MM left on Pat Burrell's contract, he'll be back next year. He also notes that Tampa would need to be "overwhelmed" to trade B.J. Upton, as you could imagine.
- The Blue Jays will hire Nationals scouting director Dana Brown as a special assistant to new GM Alex Anthopoulos, according to Bob Elliot of The Toronto Sun. The Nats will interview Braves director of scouting Roy Clark on Monday according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, potentially filling Brown's now vacant position.
Week In Review: 10/4/09 – 10/10/09
The season ended for most of the teams in the league one week ago today, and since then two more clubs have been eliminated in the Division Series. By this time next week, just four teams will be left standing. Here's what happened over the last couple of days…
- Milwaukee kicked off the week with a few relatively unsurprising moves. First, they announced that manager Ken Macha will be returning in 2010. Next, they re-signed closer Trevor Hoffman to a one-year contract that includes a mutual option for 2011. Hoffman will earn $8MM next season.
- Some clubs have already filled us in on what issues they'd like to address this offseason. The Phillies would like to upgrade their backup infielder, while Nationals GM Mike Rizzo wants to add an assistant GM and a farm director before anything else. The Mets said they will be players for top free agents, and the Brewers, plagued by a NL worst 5.37 starter's ERA in 2009, hope to add two arms to their rotation, possibly using prospect Mat Gamel as trade bait. The Rays, on the other hand, are unlikely to bring in a closer this winter, instead opting for several relievers that can handle high-leverage spots.
- A few players had their options for 2010 exercised. Brian Moehler and the Astros each picked up their part of the righty's mutual option, while the White Sox picked up the options on reliever Matt Thornton and starter Freddy Garcia.
- Plenty of other players also became free agents this week. The Marlins released Scott Proctor and Dave Davidson, the Padres released Cliff Floyd, Shawn Hill, and Cha Seung Baek, and DeWayne Wise declared free agency,
- The Mets and Red Sox officially completed the Billy Wagner deal, with the Amazin's receiving prospects Chris Carter and Eddie Lora in return. The Jon Garland trade was completed this week as well, with the Diamondbacks getting infielder Tony Abreu from the Dodgers. One trade that was not completed this week was a potential Milton Bradley deal, although the Cubs were pushing Tampa Bay to get one done quickly. Chicago might not even trade him anyway.
- Bobby Abreu said that he wants to remain with the Angels next year, ditto Orlando Cabrera and the Twins. We also learned that Rick Porcello dropped agent Scott Boras in favor of Alan Hendricks.
- Here are the latest projected Elias rankings, courtesy of Eddie Bajek. You can also check out MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates.