Cardinals Re-Sign Tony La Russa
The Cardinals announced that manager Tony La Russa signed a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2012, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The 66-year-old has been managing the Cards since 1996 and has led the club to a .543 winning percentage, eight playoff appearances, two pennants, and one World Series ring. La Russa also has another World Series ring earned in 1989 while managing Oakland, and is a four-time winner of the Manager Of The Year award (twice with the A's, and once each with the Cardinals and White Sox).
La Russa is the third-winningest manager in baseball history, with 2638 victories (and 2293 losses) to his name. Should he manage through 2012, he is a virtual lock to pass John McGraw (2763 wins) for second on the all-time wins list.
Bengie Molina Still Thinking Retirement
With a World Series ring and two Gold Gloves, Bengie Molina doesn't have much left to prove where hardware is concerned. Yet it still surprised many, including Molina's then-manager Bruce Bochy, when the 36-year-old announced in May that he would likely retire at the end of the season. At the time, Bochy dismissed the prediction as "posturing" in the midst of the veteran's uprooting by Buster Posey, but Molina has held firm through the end of the season.
"I'd like to say [I'm coming back], but the way this year is going, I think it's going to be my last year," Molina told the Spanish Baseball Network's Rolando Nichols (link and video in Spanish) in late September. Pressed for details, Molina added a few disclaimers and plenty of shrugs, saying, "I'm not sure. If someone needs me and they want me to play, for the right price, why not? I can play. I'm still in good shape." It bears mentioning that Molina was trolling for a two-year deal last winter, though he didn't like what he found and ended up accepting a one-year, $4.5MM deal with the Giants. After putting up a .249/.297/.326 combined line with the Giants and Rangers this season, with his fewest innings in five years and fewer home runs and RBIs than in any season since the millenium, Molina could have trouble finding that kind of payday again.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres
The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Chris Denorfia, Tony Gwynn, Edward Mujica, Tim Stauffer
- Second time: Mike Adams
- Third time: Ryan Ludwick, Heath Bell, Scott Hairston
Denorfia, Mujica, Stauffer, Adams, and Bell are highly likely to be tendered contracts. Adams and Bell should get noticeable raises, with the latter in line for a salary in the $7MM range. Bell hopes for a three-year deal, though a trade can't be ruled out given the Padres' strong bullpen. Ludwick disappointed after coming over in a deadline day trade, hitting .211/.301/.330 in 239 Padres PAs. Still, it appears he'll be tendered a contract.
Gwynn and Hairston are non-tender candidates. Gwynn hit .204/.304/.287 in 339 plate appearances, missing time due to wrist surgery. Ludwick staying would increase the chances of Hairston going; last month 69% of you predicted a non-tender for Hairston.
Manager Roundup: Marlins, Pirates, Blue Jays
The Braves hired Fredi Gonzalez and the Mariners chose Eric Wedge, leaving the Marlins, Pirates, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, and Mets with managerial openings. The latest:
Marlins
Bo Porter "has emerged as the frontrunner," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Frisaro says Porter "has been making inquiries about candidates for his coaching staff." Edwin Rodriguez remains in the mix despite not speaking with the team since the end of the season.
Pirates
John Gibbons is "a serious candidate," says ESPN's Buster Olney. Others linked to the Bucs in the past: Porter, Dale Sveum, Ken Macha, Jeff Banister, Bobby Valentine, and Carlos Tosca.
Blue Jays
Red Sox third base coach Tim Bogar is no longer a candidate, tweets Maureen Mullen. The Jays have been linked to more than a dozen names. One of those, Rick Renteria, was announced as the Padres' new bench coach today.
Brewers
MLB.com's Adam McCalvy profiled eight candidates who have been linked to the Brewers. Bob Melvin is the favorite, in the opinion of a few baseball writers.
White Sox bench coach Joey Cora will interview for the job on Tuesday, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Updated at 4:11pm.
Nothing new on the Cubs, and it's too early for the Mets, but we'll keep you posted on all manager rumors here.
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: None
- Second time: Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Ryan Theriot, Hong-Chih Kuo
- Third time: Russell Martin
- Fourth time: George Sherrill
Billingsley and Kuo will certainly be tendered contracts this offseason. Billingsley trimmed walks, home runs, and ERA this year and is operating from a strong first-time salary of $3.85MM. Agents will be rooting for second-timers Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Joe Saunders, John Danks, and Jeremy Guthrie to jump to the $6MM range and raise the bar for others. Kuo has a strong case as well, with a fantastic, healthy platform year in which he took over at closer.
Loney, Martin, Theriot and Sherrill form an interesting group of non-tender candidates for the Dodgers. We discussed Loney's case a week ago; about 82% of you expect him to be tendered a contract. A trade is more likely than a non-tender. Martin is in a similar situation - ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted last month that "the perception among rival GMs is that he will have some (but not great) trade value." It doesn't help that Martin is coming off a broken hip. For a look at the trade market for catchers, click here.
MLBTR's Mike Axisa looked at Theriot's case on September 4th, at which point 42% of you predicted he'll be cut loose. Looking at Theriot's numbers since then, a non-tender is even more likely. Sherrill is a lock to be let go after his tough year. He was placed on outright waivers in July and cleared.
Trade Market For Third Basemen
On Wednesday we looked at the free agent market for third basemen, noting that it's Adrian Beltre and not much else. The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Marlins, Cardinals, and Giants can't all sign him, so let's analyze the trade market at the hot corner.
Best Available Regular
There is sentiment that new Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers could shop Mark Reynolds in hopes of changing the team's offensive approach. Reynolds led MLB in strikeouts in each of the past three seasons, and those totals hold the top three spots as single-season records. He hit 44 home runs and slugged .543 in '09, but slipped to 32 and .433 this year. Former GM Josh Byrnes locked Reynolds up in March; he's owed $5MM in 2011, $7.5MM in '12, and has an $11MM club option for '13. Reynolds being under contract doesn't help his market value, but at half the price of Beltre he will draw suitors despite his difficulty making contact.
Sell High Opportunity
Wilson Betemit isn't known to be available, but Royals GM Dayton Moore would do well to field offers. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has hit a little in the past, but nothing like this year's .297/.378/.511 line in 315 plate appearances. The Royals are his fifth organization; he'll be arbitration eligible for 2011 before hitting free agency after the season. Betemit is expendable and coming off the best year of his career at a time when decent-hitting third basemen are hard to come by.
Three Under Contract
Chone Figgins didn't play third base for the Mariners this year, but he's played it well in the past. He slipped to .259/.340/.306 this year and has $26MM left on his contract for 2011-13. A $9MM salary for 2014 could vest with 600 plate appearances in '13. A fresh start makes sense for Figgins, who still qualifies as a useful leadoff man. Another burdensome contract will have to be involved.
Mark Teahen, inexplicably locked up through 2012, hit .258/.327/.382 in 262 plate appearances in his White Sox debut. He fractured a finger on May 30th and returned to the team on August 13th. The Sox could change course and try Brent Morel or Dayan Viciedo as their third baseman next year, perhaps swapping Teahen for another bad contract.
The Twins' Brendan Harris is under contract at $1.75MM for 2011. He was outrighted in June, so he's presumably available.
Former Top Prospects
Brandon Wood's stock is low – he hit .146/.174/.208 in 243 big league plate appearances for the Angels this year and turns 26 in March. He's shown big power at Triple A and is capable of playing shortstop, so a few clubs would be interested in seeing if a change of scenery helps.
Mat Gamel, 25, had a solid year in the minors but saw little big league time with the Brewers. He dealt with a slight tear in his right lat muscle in the beginning of the season but eventually hit well enough to earn a September call-up. He had toe surgery at the end of the month, however. Casey McGehee is locked in at third base for the Brewers. They could use Gamel elsewhere or shop him for starting pitching this offseason.
Non-Tender Candidates
As we mentioned before, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Lopez, Andy Marte, Andy LaRoche, and Kevin Frandsen could be trade bait as non-tender candidates. There may be a few clubs willing to tender Kouzmanoff a contract if the Athletics aren't, so a trade is possible for him if the A's find a third base alternative. Regarding the others, teams might wait until the December 2nd non-tender deadline passes.
Summary
The trade market for third basemen offers worthwhile gambles. Will Reynolds and Figgins bounce back and will Betemit regress? Can Wood and Gamel hold down everyday jobs? Can Kouzmanoff and Teahen hit enough to justify salaries north of $4MM?
Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Ian Stewart
- Second time: Jason Hammel, Manny Delcarmen
- Third time: Clint Barmes, Matt Belisle
The Rockies have two non-tender candidates: Delcarmen and Barmes. They have to decide if Delcarmen is worth a $1MM+ gamble for 2011 after his struggles in 2009-10. The righty dealt with a forearm strain prior to his August 31st trade from Boston. Barmes, operating from a $3.325MM salary this year, is almost certain to be cut loose. He'll improve the free agent market for second basemen, though he'd like to return to the Rockies if he can't find an everyday job.
Stewart's playing time was limited this year due to an oblique injury and the occasional benching against a lefty. He won't be too expensive, and will be retained. Hammel had a solid year, better than his 4.81 ERA suggests. He'll still provide value in 2011. The Rockies' decision to tender Belisle a contract last winter paid off, as he led MLB with 92 relief innings. Belisle posted a 2.93 ERA with strong peripherals, and the Rockies will be glad to have him back.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: White Sox
Time to hit Chicago's south side with our amateur signing bonus series…
- Joe Borchard, $5.3MM (2000)
- Dayan Viciedo, $4MM (2008)
- Gordon Beckham, $2.6MM (2008)
- Jason Stumm, $1.75MM (1999)
- Chris Sale, $1.656MM (2010)
Borchard's bonus was the largest ever given out as part of a minor league contract at the time, and was the record until Justin Upton showed up in 2005. The White Sox had to buy him away from a potential NFL career after Borchard starred at Stanford as both an outfielder and quarterback, though the team was able to spread the bonus out over five years according to MLB's provisions for two sport athletes. He never lived up to the hype, hitting .191/.254/.342 in 328 plate appearances across four seasons for Chicago before being dealt to the Mariners in March 2006 for a fellow former first round pick by the name of Matt Thornton. It clicked for Thornton after the trade but never did for Borchard, and the vast majority of his career has been spent in Triple-A.
Both Beckham and Sale have paid immediate dividends. Beckham, the eighth overall pick in 2008, reached the big leagues the very next year and is a career .260/.331/.416 career hitter in 928 plate appearances. Sale didn't even have to wait that long; he found himself in Chicago's bullpen less than two months after being the 13th overall pick in this year's draft. Hard to blame them for being so aggressive, Sale posted a 1.93 ERA with 12.3 K/9 in 21 appearances (23.1 innings) while hitting the upper-90's from the left side. As you probably suspect, he's the first player from the 2010 draft to reach the show.
After the success of Alexei Ramirez, the White Sox went hard after another Cuban defector in Viciedo. The 21-year-old has been just okay in the minors (.277/.313/.432), though his 106 plate appearance cameo in the big leagues this season was much more promising (.308/.321/.519). Listed at 5-foot-11 and 240 lbs. on the team's official site, he might not be long for the hot corner. Stumm was a colossal bust as the 15th overall pick in 1999. Injuries sabotaged the righthander's career (four surgeries total), and just eight of his 224.1 career innings came above A-ball. Stumm has been out of the game since 2005.
Odds & Ends: Ross, Hale, Daniels, Mets, Coaches
Some links to check out as Cody Ross attempts to follow up yesterday's two-home run performance and the Phillies look to even the score…
- Speaking of Ross, Andrew Baggarly of The Mercury News reports that Giants GM Brian Sabean left a "clear impression" before tonight's game that the outfielder will be tendered a contract this offseason.
- Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox bench coach DeMarlo Hale is getting a second interview for the Blue Jays managerial position.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets have been "asking around" about Rangers GM Jon Daniels, and things could get interesting. Daniels can opt out of his contract after the season since the team was sold.
- Steve Popper of The Bergen Record says that the Mets might not be making the popular choices right now, especially with Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, and Luis Castillo, but they're the right moves.
- Popper also reports that the Tigers denied the Mets permission to talk to assistant GM Al Avila about their GM vacancy.
- ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that Eric Young will be named the D'Backs first base coach later this week. In a second tweet, he says Eric Wedge's former pitching coach Carl Willis will likely play a big role on his new staff in Seattle.
- Despite the expected heavy interest from the Yankees and Rangers, Michael Silverman from the Boston Herald thinks the Red Sox should make a serious run at Cliff Lee.
- In the second page of that same article, Silverman quotes an unnamed executive in saying that a package consisting of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and prospect Anthony Rizzo wouldn't be enough to pry Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres. He speculates the names that would be mentioned next would include Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias.
- Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports says it makes more sense for the Orioles to trade for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter and an ace starter than seek one in free agency, and asks readers whether or not the O's should pursue Zack Greinke. In his blog post earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney didn't see Baltimore as a fit for the Kansas City ace.
- Reduced payroll will force the Rays into some tough decisions, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. As Topkin points out, nearly the entire bullpen is entering free agency. Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Joaquin Benoit, and Chad Qualls are only signed through 2010, while Dan Wheeler's $4MM option will be declined and Lance Cormier could be non-tendered. Balfour and Choate are most likely to return, while Benoit will likely look to capitalize on his monster season.
- Richard Griffin from the Toronto Star spoke with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin, who could be a candidate for the Jays' managerial opening, about the difficulty of getting a foot in the door as a manager. As Griffin says, part of the reason they continue to interview candidates while other teams are filling their managerial positions could be because they have a high level of interest in someone like Mackanin, whose team is still playing.
- The Phillies' worst nightmare isn't losing to the Giants in the NLCS or losing to the Yankees in the World Series, according FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. It's going to the World Series and facing the ace they traded away last offseason, who now sports a Rangers uniform — Cliff Lee.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Derrek Lee
With his roster losing player after player due to injury, Braves GM Frank Wren swung a deal with the Cubs that brought two-time All Star Derrek Lee to Atlanta in August. Lee was just a rental player however; he's scheduled to hit the free agent market this winter as the five-year, $65MM extension he signed with Chicago in 2006 ends. Let's examine his stock…
The Good
- After a subpar performance with the Cubs this season, Lee rebounded to hit .287/.384/.465 in 151 plate appearances with the Braves. Perhaps being on a contender reinvigorated him.
- Even as age saps his power, he remains a strong on-base threat, drawing at least 71 walks in each of the last four seasons.
- Lee has a reputation as being a tremendous defensive first baseman, and the advanced metrics back it up: his +12.5 UZR over the last three seasons is one of the best marks in the game at the position.
- Lee fell just short of qualifying as a Type-A free agent, so a team will not have to forfeit a high draft pick to sign him (assuming Atlanta offers him arbitration and he declines).
- At 35-years-old, a long-term commitment will not be required.
The Bad
- Lee played through a torn ligament in his thumb at the end of the season according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, and recently underwent an MRI to determine the extent of the damage and the next step. He also battled back and neck issues during the past two seasons, though neither landed him on the disabled list.
- As I said before, age is beginning to steal some of his pop. Looking at isolated power, which measures extra-base power by removing singles from slugging percentage (it's just SLG-AVG), 2010 was Lee's worst power season (.168 ISO) ever, minimum 300 plate appearances. For comparison's sake, the MLB average for first basemen was .146 ISO this season, so he's still above average in that regard. But for how long?
- Always known as a lefty masher, Lee dipped to just .257/.356/.421 against southpaws this year, his worst output against pitchers of the opposite hand since 2006.
The Verdict
Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko highlight the free agent first base crop, but Lee is about as good of a stopgap option as you'll find. He's a solid all-around player despite declining some in recent years, and his track record is both better and longer than other free agents like Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena. Teams looking to solidify the first base position for a year or two while they wait for a prospect (or just want to avoid a long commitment) figure to show the most interest. That includes clubs like the Mariners, Orioles, Nationals (assuming Dunn leaves), Rangers, Rays, and maybe even the Cubs again.